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Poll Inaccuracy's could lead to unforseen landslide?

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    #32
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    Blue_Lagoon wrote: »
    I am very suspect of online polls conducted of people that are active on the web. They represent a biased segment of the population, typically more educated than the general population, and unique in many other ways that may differentiate them from the general population.

    Fully agree with this as no doubt most people do. Online polls are completely meaning less. Homer Simpson man of the century? a Nation Once Again the best song ever?

    Although I don't know about the more educated than the general population...reading some stuff on boards.ie shoots down that argument :D


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    #33
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    Blue_Lagoon wrote: »
    I am very suspect of online polls conducted of people that are active on the web. They represent a biased segment of the population, typically more educated than the general population, and unique in many other ways that may differentiate them from the general population.

    Online surveys and polls have absolutely no respect unless you are going for a certain demographic. For one, they tend to completely miss out on O.A.Ps who are the biggest voters in percentage terms. Apparently they don't trust the ineternet and are afraid to give out details. Most internet surveys are normally specifically designed to target males from 16-30.

    As for the market being oversaturated and Americans getting tired of answering polls, this may be true normally but I'd assume in the run up to the election participation goes through the roof, especially one which has caught the nation's attention like no other


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    #34
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    Latest polls have Obama ahead by 2 points, which is as meaningful as the poll last month with McCain ahead by 5-not much.


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    #35
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    National polls are pretty meaningless anyway with the way the system works. State polls are much more important/imformative.


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    #36
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,258 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Ludo wrote: »
    National polls are pretty meaningless anyway with the way the system works. State polls are much more important/imformative.
    You might want to rethink this? Federal law in the US requires each citizen (or head of household) to participate in the US Census that occurs once every 10 years. The US census is not intended to be a sample, but rather a total enumeration of the US population. Although participation is required by law, there is a wide variation in response rates by the 50 states in the US, ranging from a low of 56% (Alaska) to 76% (Iowa), with an overall average response rate of 67% reported by the US Census Bureau.

    A census is a form of polling (or surveying) the US population. When a large segment of a state's population refuses to participate, even when it is required by law, to what extent would these same people refuse to participate in a voluntary poll or survey? What is different about these people that fail to participate from those that do? Do they think or believe differently? At the state level, 44% of the Alaska population failed to participate for some reason. The essence of the problem is that we don't know much about the non-responders? How does this impact on the validity and reliability of state polls (or surveys), as well as the conclusions suggested by them?


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    #37
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    Nah...we are talking about a presidential election poll. As each state is winner takes all, an overall national poll, while giving an estimate of feelings, does not necessarily reflect how the election will turn out.

    I find this to be the best site for polling information. Updated daily.

    http://electoral-vote.com/


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    #38
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Resurrecting this one because I saw an interesting little factoid in the fine print of the latest NBC/WSJ poll.
    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080924_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf

    Apparently, a number of the polled persons were called on their mobiles. If they were called on their mobile, but also had a landline, they were discarded from the pool. This would indicate that the pollsters are specifically seeking out persons who only use mobiles, thus reaching some of the Obama base theorised as missed out because they don't own landlines.

    NTM


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