Bank of Ireland Takeover?

Glacier

Is Bank of Ireland is taken over do you think shares will jump & what are the chances of this happening?

Time Magazine

I don't think they're going to be taken over.

karen3212

Glacier wrote: »

Is Bank of Ireland is taken over do you think shares will jump & what are the chances of this happening?

Don't think anyone has the money to buy them, I don't think at the moment.

Rockshamrover

There's probably a better chance of a merger between banks.

pocketdooz

karen3212 wrote: »

Don't think anyone has the money to buy them, I don't think at the moment.

Of course they do - their market cap. is less than €5 billion.
Santander could buy them in a heartbeat - as could a slew of other banks.

smithyadam

pocketdooz wrote: »

Of course they do - their market cap. is less than €5 billion.
Santander could buy them in a heartbeat - as could a slew of other banks.

If they were so inclined... which is very unlikely. There's no real synergies to be had by acquiring tiny regional banks.

pocketdooz

smithyadam wrote: »

If they were so inclined... which is very unlikely. There's no real synergies to be had by acquiring tiny regional banks.

What are you on about ?

Do you know ?

smithyadam

pocketdooz wrote: »

What are you on about ?

Do you know ?

The likelihood of santander/fortis etc buying up small irish banks like boi/aib during a recession - as above, it's very unlikely.

damnyanks

Actually its not. There has been constant talk of larger banks trying to get a foothold in the Irish market. Buying BOI would make sense.

It's not about creating synergies its about creating a business in a untapped market. Any company that is cash rish at the moment will really be doing well in 10 years.

smithyadam

damnyanks wrote: »

Actually its not. There has been constant talk of larger banks trying to get a foothold in the Irish market. Buying BOI would make sense.

It's not about creating synergies its about creating a business in a untapped market. Any company that is cash rish at the moment will really be doing well in 10 years.

The Irish market is hardly untapped... plus the likes of Fortis are having massive problems just staying afloat right now, without acquiring small regional banks with a massive reliance on an economy that's in a recession with little hope of recovering in the next 1-2 years.

bosra

I think it is more likely than not that BKIR, ANGL and IPM will either be forced to merge or be taken over within the next two years. What has one of the most significant trading lessons been over this crisis? Well for me, it has been investors trying to call the bottom in the financials.. Soros tried it with Lehmans..Got burnt..Sov wealth funds tried it with a host of banks and are already deep in the red...Irish banks are just behind/ lagging in the cycle. Bad debts will feed through in 09 + 10. Therefore any shrewd investors out there will prey on this. Allow the Irish banks become distressed entities like Lehmans or WAMU ..then you come in with any lowball over and rescue them..Shareholders take the hit.

pocketdooz

smithyadam wrote: »

The Irish market is hardly untapped... plus the likes of Fortis are having massive problems just staying afloat right now, without acquiring small regional banks with a massive reliance on an economy that's in a recession with little hope of recovering in the next 1-2 years.

1. You brought up Fortis - I said Santander. Santander are cash rich, they have no exposure to US MBS's and are looking for assets currently (e.g. - Alliance and Leicster - they were looking at BOI two weeks ago, they were invited to look at WaMu's books etc.)

2. Bank of Ireland are not a tiny regional bank - they are the second largest financial institution in Ireland and BIAM are very well respected in the market.

3. Fortis are not having problems staying afloat. They have recently shored up their balance sheet and the reason their share price is down so much is because they cancelled a dividend payment in July to further increase cash reserves. The Belgian and Dutch bank regulations are strict and Fortis have ample capital.

4. "no real synergies" - How can you say there are no real synergies in two banks that operate in seperate geographical markets covered by the same regulatory framework coming together ?

Glacier

I bought E10k shares in BOI 4 years ago, now it's worth like 3-4k. Do you think it will ever be worth what I paid for them again?

sock.rocker*

pocketdooz wrote: »

3. Fortis are not having problems staying afloat. They have recently shored up their balance sheet and the reason their share price is down so much is because they cancelled a dividend payment in July to further increase cash reserves. The Belgian and Dutch bank regulations are strict and Fortis have ample capital.

They also have me working for them.. and I'm class:cool:

pocketdooz

sock.rocker* wrote: »

They also have me working for them.. and I'm class:cool:

They're laughing so !

pocketdooz

Glacier wrote: »

I bought E10k shares in BOI 4 years ago, now it's worth like 3-4k. Do you think it will ever be worth what I paid for them again?

Here's an intersting post with a similar theme. Maybe you should read through the replies ?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055348159

:rolleyes:

ionapaul

pocketdooz wrote: »

3. Fortis are not having problems staying afloat. They have recently shored up their balance sheet and the reason their share price is down so much is because they cancelled a dividend payment in July to further increase cash reserves. The Belgian and Dutch bank regulations are strict and Fortis have ample capital.

Fortis nationalised today; the Dutch finance minister was quoted as saying it was unclear if Fortis would have survived Monday without being rescued! Mad stuff.

Lots more banks to go under over the next two years, IMHO.

justfortherecor

Dont know why the focus has been on BOI as a takeover target, as AIB would be a far more attractive option for any bank considering a move into the Irish market IMO.

Has potentially lucrative stakes in two excellent CEE banks in Zachodni (Poland) and BACB (Bulgaria) that would be of serious interest to some of the major continental banks for future years.

sock.rocker*

ionapaul wrote: »

Fortis nationalised today; the Dutch finance minister was quoted as saying it was unclear if Fortis would have survived Monday without being rescued! Mad stuff.

Lots more banks to go under over the next two years, IMHO.

They weren't nationalised.. They basically just have 3 big new investors.

ionapaul

What happened amounts to partial nationalisation; they were too big to fail (minsters in the three governments have openly stated this today) and the three national governments were forced to step in as a result.

sock.rocker*

nope, this is just unclear in the media and marketplace.. it wasn't in any way nationalised.

mad times isn't it, iseq down 13% in a day....

daveirl

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sock.rocker*

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

i think its like one government has 49% of banking division in one country and the other has lik 49% of the insurance division in the other.. something lik that, im tired. fortis is much bigger than those two divisions. The governments arn't gonna be running anything, jus have influence.