Your Nov 4th predictions, Ladies and Germs.

Mr.Micro

limklad wrote: »

With all the damage Guns causes in the US, is way more than in other parts of the world. Where 10 years ago US Military Doctors were going the L.A. and other Major US cities to train up where there were plenty of gun shot wounds because LA had the best War time scenario and prove effective in training for events of War, for LA had weapons that caused similar wounds as see in many War zones.

Guns like many major weapons breads Violence, death, revenge, hate, pain, suffering. Total opposite To Christ Forgiveness, love, tolerance of others. Jesus did say "love you enemies".

There is A big difference between hunting for Food to eat because you are starving and hunting for fun to pleasure you sense of power so you can hang up a head of a prey.

Limklad, one has to take into account the Americans always have a different interpretation of things which is their very own often at odds with us lesser folk in Europe. Eg when is torture not torture, answer when it is carried out by the CIA, or kidnap not kidnap, when it is extraordinary rendition. The irony of the bible belt in the US sending their young men to kill in other countries and then praise the Lord. Hell they are probably rewriting the bible as we speak. Its all BS IMO.

Manic Moran

limklad wrote: »

Guns like many major weapons breads Violence, death, revenge, hate, pain, suffering. Total opposite To Christ Forgiveness, love, tolerance of others. Jesus did say "love you enemies".

Unfortunately, Jesus had a slight advantage that the rest of us don't: He could resurrect. He also didn't have a wife and kids to protect and support. (Well, depending, I guess, on your belief, but I understand that's the common viewpoint.)

Until we live in a place where love and tolerance is ubiquitous and no strong prey on any weak, firearms play a very functional role in US society. As was said, "God made all men. Samuel Colt made them all equal." Nothing else currently commonly available affords an equal chance to defend oneself regardless of your physical ability as a firearm does. Disabled, old, small and female, all are capable of using a firearm effectively. Much focus is placed on the mis-use of firearms, very little is placed on the (far more common) correct use of firearms. You seem to be under the misapprehension that weapons can only be used for bad things. Even Jesus realised that they had a place in society.

It is a mistake to equate the American belief in the right to bear arms as anything to do with hunting, by the way. Some 80% of American firearms owners (including me) do not have a hunting license, hunting has very little to do with it. For the vast majority, it is sport (target shooting), personal defense, and national security.

NTM

limklad

Manic Moran wrote: »

You seem to be under the misapprehension that weapons can only be used for bad things. Even Jesus realised that they had a place in society.
NTM

Now you are using religion to justify killings.

in response to you post which is 50 in this thread:
Here a picture you ask for proof that Bush was holding a book upside down during a reading class for kid during 9-11

Ludo

That picture is a fake apparently...check out snopes.com. They have the original and show how it is faked.

Pocono Joe

I’ve changed my prediction!

The November 4th Presidential election will come out an electoral-college tie, 269-269.

Under Constitution rule, the Democrat-controlled House picks Senator Barack Obama as President, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie and makes Republican Governor Sarah Palin his successor as Vice President.

Numerous lawsuits are filed by both political parties, which are deemed allowable under 5-4 ruling by a liberal controlled Supreme Court, causing neither the House nor the Senate the ability to fulfill its constitutional duty to select the President and Vice President. So accordingly, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, becomes Acting President until the whole mess is sorted out.

As the lawsuits linger, Nancy Pelosi (with support from allies Harry Reid, Dick Durbin, Chuck Schumer, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd) in a drunken fit of power, and under mandate from God to save the planet, begin programs that cause worldwide hunger, followed quickly with political and economic instability that initiates World War III.

Armageddon results on December 21, 2012, fulfilling the end of the world prophecy in the Mayan Calendar.

That’s all she wrote!

Manic Moran

limklad wrote: »

Now you are using religion to justify killings.

Not at all. I am preventing your using religion to justify not killing.

in response to you post which is 50 in this thread:
Here a picture you ask for proof that Bush was holding a book upside down during a reading class for kid during 9-11

I'm guessing you didn't bother as much as clicking on the link I thoughtfully provided you, then?

NTM

Manic Moran

Pocono Joe wrote: »

Armageddon results on December 21, 2012, fulfilling the end of the world prophecy in the Mayan Calendar.

This involves zombies, right? Damnit, I've done all this preparing, there had better be zombies.

NTM

Ludo

Pocono Joe wrote: »

Under Constitution rule, the Democrat-controlled House picks Senator Barack Obama as President, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie and makes Republican Governor Sarah Palin his successor as Vice President.

It is a little more complicated than you make out there Joe. Each state newly elected delegation only gets one vote in the house of reps for president so it is theoretically possible that even though dems have a majority, thay could lose this vote depending on how exactly each states new delegation looks. Unlikely though.

More importantly though, if the NEW senate ties (unlikely also seeing as dems will almost definitely have a majority), Cheney has no say in this matter in the case of a tie. See the 12th amendment. The senators basically have to keep voting until someone gets a majority...recipe for disaster if tied but there ya go. No deciding vote for sitting VP in this case.

The Washington Post article you probably got your piece from is innacurate. Then again there are conflicting interpretations of the 12th amendment as it is very ambiguous. It would be a disaster if it came to a tied house of reps or senate though.

Pocono Joe

Manic Moran wrote: »

This involves zombies, right? Damnit, I've done all this preparing, there had better be zombies.

You do realize Al Gore walks among us right?

MementoMori

Ok - so I’ve split the states into those in play and those not in play. Basically I can’t see any of the not-in-play states changing from one camp to the other unless something earth-shattering happens e.g. McCain announces he is from outer space or Obama announces he is actually Osama with a dark tan and a shave.

The In Play states are the ones where more guess work was involved. Some of them I’m more confident about than others but these are basically the states where the campaign will be focused in the next few weeks - to a greater or less extent. I’ve also listed five Swing States that I wouldn’t be surprised could go either way. Obviously the swing states are those in-play states I feel less confident about correctly predicting.

OBAMA - 294
MCCAIN - 244

MCCAIN - NOT IN PLAY STATES

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Michigan 17
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Texas 34
Utah 5
Wyoming 3
West Virginia 5

174

OBAMA - NOT IN PLAY STATES

California 55
Conneticut 7
Delaware 3
District Columbia 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

190

MCCAIN - IN PLAY STATES

Indiana 11
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Tennessee 11
Virginia 13

70

OBAMA - IN PLAY STATES

Colorado 9
Florida 27
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10
Missouri 11
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

104

SWING STATES - and who I've currently predicted them for

Missouri 11 Barrack
Nevada 5 Barrack
North Carolina 15 McCain
Ohio 20 McCain
Virginia 13 McCain

Assuming the not-in-play states analysis is correct, it looks like it would be very difficult for McCain to win especially if Obama wins Florida and one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania.

Due to the electoral votes each state has following are how the in-play sates break down
Key Battlegrounds : Florida followed by Ohio and Pennsylvania
Lesser Battlegrounds : North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colarado
States Likely to affect the Margin of Victory but not the result : Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire

I’d be particularly interested in hearing if anyone thinks any of the states in the not-in-play category should be in the in-play category.

I’d really like to hear any arguments regarding what people think of the in-play and how I’ve allocated them especially the biggies - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

In a lot of the cases particularly the in-play states it was a combination of intuition, what I’ve read, plus some of the polls I’ve looked which led me to make my decisions on how they’ll go.

limklad

Manic Moran wrote: »

Not at all. I am preventing your using religion to justify not killing.

Sixth commandment "Though shall not Kill"

CtrlSource

Does anyone know off hand roughly how much Kerry was up 3 weeks before polling and also Gore in 2000?

If not, i'll research it later. i'm curious to know whether we're calling the result a bit prematurely, or not. i understand that the swing state polling is looking a bit different this year though!

kenco

MementoMori wrote: »

Ok - so I’ve split the states into those in play and those not in play. Basically I can’t see any of the not-in-play states changing from one camp to the other unless something earth-shattering happens e.g. McCain announces he is from outer space or Obama announces he is actually Osama with a dark tan and a shave.

The In Play states are the ones where more guess work was involved. Some of them I’m more confident about than others but these are basically the states where the campaign will be focused in the next few weeks - to a greater or less extent. I’ve also listed five Swing States that I wouldn’t be surprised could go either way. Obviously the swing states are those in-play states I feel less confident about correctly predicting.

OBAMA - 294
MCCAIN - 244

MCCAIN - NOT IN PLAY STATES

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Michigan 17
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Texas 34
Utah 5
Wyoming 3
West Virginia 5

174

OBAMA - NOT IN PLAY STATES

California 55
Conneticut 7
Delaware 3
District Columbia 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

190

MCCAIN - IN PLAY STATES

Indiana 11
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Tennessee 11
Virginia 13

70

OBAMA - IN PLAY STATES

Colorado 9
Florida 27
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10
Missouri 11
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

104

SWING STATES - and who I've currently predicted them for

Missouri 11 Barrack
Nevada 5 Barrack
North Carolina 15 McCain
Ohio 20 McCain
Virginia 13 McCain

Assuming the not-in-play states analysis is correct, it looks like it would be very difficult for McCain to win especially if Obama wins Florida and one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania.

Due to the electoral votes each state has following are how the in-play sates break down
Key Battlegrounds : Florida followed by Ohio and Pennsylvania
Lesser Battlegrounds : North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colarado
States Likely to affect the Margin of Victory but not the result : Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire

I’d be particularly interested in hearing if anyone thinks any of the states in the not-in-play category should be in the in-play category.

I’d really like to hear any arguments regarding what people think of the in-play and how I’ve allocated them especially the biggies - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

In a lot of the cases particularly the in-play states it was a combination of intuition, what I’ve read, plus some of the polls I’ve looked which led me to make my decisions on how they’ll go.

Maybe its just a typo but I thought Michigan was a swing state if not a leaning to Obama one?

limklad

kenco wrote: »

Maybe its just a typo but I thought Michigan was a swing state if not a leaning to Obama one?

Yes, you are right McCain pulled out and conceded defeat in that state.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081002/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Looks even worst for McCain,

Stating With November 4th only 25 Days away is that anything can happen in this Campaign to put Obama on the back foot, so he better not be complacent or over confidence and continue his work.
8 Years ago we though Al Gore would defeat Bush, Al Gore had the popular vote but loss the the electoral college vote + Supreme Court Ruling.

Ludo

CtrlSource wrote: »

Does anyone know off hand roughly how much Kerry was up 3 weeks before polling and also Gore in 2000?

If not, i'll research it later. i'm curious to know whether we're calling the result a bit prematurely, or not. i understand that the swing state polling is looking a bit different this year though!

4 years ago (yesterday).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct09.html

banquo

Heh. Kerry 280, Bush 248.

Just goes to show.

ghostdancer

that site is worthless though, it only used the most recent poll, regardless of who it was by.

scroll over the state to see.

it'd be credible if it had an aggregate of polls.

Ludo

No it doesn't...it only uses the most recent one if the older ones are more than a few weeks ols...i.e. essentially worthless.
For Example Florida... that sites overall rating is Obama winning 50 to 46 but the latest poll says Obama winning 50 to 47 (Rasmussen on Oct 8th). Average is still +4 to Obama.

Look at the explanation here:
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/map-algorithm.html


It also does not include some biased polls...from the sites FAQ

"Which polls do you use?
First of all, only neutral pollsters are used. Pollsters whose primary business is helping Democrats or Republicans get elected are not used. They tend to make their horse look better. When there are multiple polls for a race, the most recent poll is always used. The middle date of the polling period is what counts (not the release date). If other polls have middle polling dates within a week of the most recent one, they are all averaged together. This tends to smooth out variations. In 2004, this algorithm did the best. Click on Polling data in Excel to the right of the map for all the raw polling data. It is sorted in descending order by polling date (Jan. 1 is 1.0). The fields are separated by commas so you can read the file into Excel.

In fact the 2004 one may indeed have used the most recent poll only but not anymore.
It is a good site for getting all the state polls in one place every day as they come out (and state polls are what really matter as the election is in reality it is 50 individual elections unlike the national polls which are only a very general indicator)

limklad

CtrlSource wrote: »

Does anyone know off hand roughly how much Kerry was up 3 weeks before polling and also Gore in 2000?

If not, i'll research it later. i'm curious to know whether we're calling the result a bit prematurely, or not. i understand that the swing state polling is looking a bit different this year though!

Bush V Kerry on 2004

Polls are difficult to believe when contest is close. I Found This Poll , I do not how accurate it is.

I do remember after the first two debates that Kerry was gaining ground, but Kerry made two Gaffs towards the end but slowly gaining ground again. The undecided voters were unsure about him in the end especially about the comments about the Iraqi & Afghanistan War and the economy. I don't think they have any problem this time with current candidates.


Al Gore V Bush on 2000
I am trying to remember I but I believe it was close throughout but I do remember my Uncle saying many of his friends were fed up with the Clinton administration and Democratic Party which would affect Gore chances and that many of my uncle's Democratic friends were going to vote for Bush which shock him, because he was Republican. I know it too was a tight contested.

Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000), United States Supreme Court Case

Manic Moran

limklad wrote: »

Sixth commandment "Though shall not Kill"

The Catholic Church is in a minority in using that translation. If you look to the original Hebrew, and most other Christian denominations, the word used is not "kill", but "murder." A very important difference.

NTM

jmayo

Manic Moran wrote: »

The Catholic Church is in a minority in using that translation. If you look to the original Hebrew, and most other Christian denominations, the word used is not "kill", but "murder." A very important difference.

NTM

Typical fe**ing US election discussion, it ends up discussing whose biblical translations are more correct.

CtrlSource

Thanks for that. Never thought of looking up electoral-vote.com! (been looking at it almost daily for the current polls).

After being disappointed in 2000 and even more so in '04, i'm nervous of polls during US Presidential elections! But if he maintains this lead through the end of the month, it should then be a foregone conclusion

galwaydude

Lets hope for all our sakes. The campaign just seems to be getting nastier and nastier and less about politics by the day. I dont dislike McCain but he doesnt inspire confidence by his actions. We have had 8 years of bush and dont need another 4 of same ole same ole, god forbid palin will be president by 2012. That is one scarey thought.

ghostdancer

Ludo wrote: »

No it doesn't...it only uses the most recent one if the older ones are more than a few weeks ols...i.e. essentially worthless.
For Example Florida... that sites overall rating is Obama winning 50 to 46 but the latest poll says Obama winning 50 to 47 (Rasmussen on Oct 8th). Average is still +4 to Obama.

Look at the explanation here:
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/map-algorithm.html


It also does not include some biased polls...from the sites FAQ



In fact the 2004 one may indeed have used the most recent poll only but not anymore.
It is a good site for getting all the state polls in one place every day as they come out (and state polls are what really matter as the election is in reality it is 50 individual elections unlike the national polls which are only a very general indicator)

i meant for looking at 2004 polls, it has since refined it's methodology.
the link you posted is for 2008.

the 2004 maps are based on the most recent poll of the state at that time.
which makes then not really that reliable at all for judging this date 4 years ago.

NapoleonInRags

I've been following the bookies odds on the election for the past six months or so - as I think they are a pretty good predictor (as my grandad used to say 'I never saw a bookie ridin' a bike').

It's been pretty much neck and neck (with generally a slight edge for Obama) - however in the last two weeks the odds have gone from Obama 4/5 Mc Cain 5/4 to Obama 1/7 Mc Cain 9/2.

It's President Obama folks - for sure.

NapoleonInRags

Ludo wrote: »

4 years ago (yesterday).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct09.html

Yes, but if you scroll down you'll notice that the popular vote polls were more or less even. At the moment Obama has a 5-6 point lead.

MementoMori

With the fact that McCain has conceeded Michigan having been brought to my attention, I'm altering my prediction to take this into account - so my new prediction is

Obama 311
McCain 227

Black Swan

Are we all are underestimating the campaign brilliance of Karl Rove? McCain could still win, but for the right reasons? Vids of Palin campaign stumps recently, especially in small town America, have been down right scary, the way the crowds act? Reminds me of an old book in my Da's study called The Crowd by Gustav LaBon, and how he describes mob rule during the French Revolution. Ugly indeed!

I still contend that this whole 2008 presidential campaign by both the Democrats and the Republicans has been an American Idol farce, focusing primarily on image management, and not solutions to the economic meltdown.

MementoMori

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

Are we all are underestimating the campaign brilliance of Karl Rove? McCain could still win, but for the right reasons? Vids of Palin campaign stumps recently, especially in small town America, have been down right scary, the way the crowds act? Reminds me of an old book in my Da's study called The Crowd by Gustav LaBon, and how he describes mob rule during the French Revolution. Ugly indeed!

I still contend that this whole 2008 presidential campaign by both the Democrats and the Republicans has been an American Idol farce, focusing primarily on image management, and not solutions to the economic meltdown.

I think the fact that the race has been so close is partially down to Rove's tactical nous. I also think that the Clinton/Obama Democratic selection race has probably helped the Republican side to an extent.

Pocono Joe

I still contend that this whole 2008 presidential campaign by both the Democrats and the Republicans has been an American Idol farce, focusing primarily on image management, and not solutions to the economic meltdown.

Hell has indeed frozen over… I finally agree with something BlueLagoon says. This election should be between John McCain and Hillary Clinton.

As for the newest hype… about people shouting obscenities at rallies, I was at one this week. There is no way the candidates, while giving their speeches, hear everything that is shouted out by every individual. I sure couldn’t. I did here one old hippy looking type next to me shout an obscenity. And the only way I heard exactly what he said was because he was right next to me. I told him “smooth move man, that won’t help anyone.” (I am not against old hippy looking types… I’m an old hippy myself, even went to Woodstock against my parents wishes with a friend and his older brother when I was 12. That day of peace and love ended with a wooden spoon across the backside by a very angry Irish mother). I bet one of the fifty or so cameras with sensitive audio systems did pick his comment up though. Believe me, now that it has become an issue, you will hear the candidates saying those type of comments are not necessary… even if they don’t hear them.