US House votes against $700bn bailout

j1smithy

Darragh29 wrote: »

Here's what I can't get my head around???

Say an Irish bank goes bust tomorrow and I have a mortage with that bank... Why don't the rules/legislation not just allow for my mortgage to cease there and then. "Sorry lads it didn't work out for yiz, just send me the deeds of my gaff please when yiz get a chance"???

Why are they not allowed to fail??? No other business is treated like this, health insurance companies have to keep reserves and are regulated, travel insurance companies have to be bonded, how come we are in this situation with the banks???

The reason they are not allowed to fail is that it would be a disaster. Without the banks there would be no money creation. If a bank takes in €10 in deposits and has a 10% retention, it can lend €100 thus adding (creating) €90 to the economy. It is this money creation that keeps everything going as far as i know. When a mortgage defaults the bank sells the house to take back the money it lent, if it cant raise the required amount it takes on a bad debt. When this happens on a large scale it can run out of cash to keep the business going despite having assets. The problem here is that the banks dont know how much bad debt each is exposed to, and are now refusing to lend to each other because they dont know the risk.

Why is this bad for the ordinary person? Think of all the things you get on credit, all the things that companys get on credit? If your employer hits a rough patch because people have stopped buying things because credit is too expensive, he cant get a loan to get the business through the rough patch because its too expensive. Thus the company could be downsized or even wound up, increasing further unemployment and further depressing consumer confidence. Government wont have the tax revenues to help out and we could spiral into a long recession or depression.

What happened today is very serious and unless it gets sorted very quickly, bad times could be ahead for a long time.

The reason you still have to stillpay your mortgage if a bank goes under is that a mortgage is an asset of the bank, when the liquidators move in they will sell on the loan book to another company in order to pay off creditors. This is the same as any other business.Say a timber merchant goes bankrupt the liquidators will sell of all the planks of wood he has in stock, to pay his creditors.

I would also expect one of the big irish banks to be bought out soon, they are going quite cheap at the moment, though another bank may not want the risk of being exposed to our own plummeting housing market.

Darragh29

j1smithy wrote: »

The reason they are not allowed to fail is that it would be a disaster. Without the banks there would be no money creation. If a bank takes in €10 in deposits and has a 10% retention, it can lend €100 thus adding (creating) €90 to the economy. It is this money creation that keeps everything going as far as i know. When a mortgage defaults the bank sells the house to take back the money it lent, if it cant raise the required amount it takes on a bad debt. When this happens on a large scale it can run out of cash to keep the business going despite having assets. The problem here is that the banks dont know how much bad debt each is exposed to, and are now refusing to lend to each other because they dont know the risk.

Why is this bad for the ordinary person? Think of all the things you get on credit, all the things that companys get on credit? If your employer hits a rough patch because people have stopped buying things because credit is too expensive, he cant get a loan to get the business through the rough patch because its too expensive. Thus the company could be downsized or even wound up, increasing further unemployment and further depressing consumer confidence. Government wont have the tax revenues to help out and we could spiral into a long recession or depression.

What happened today is very serious and unless it gets sorted very quickly, bad times could be ahead for a long time.

The reason you still have to stillpay your mortgage if a bank goes under is that a mortgage is an asset of the bank, when the liquidators move in they will sell on the loan book to another company in order to pay off creditors. This is the same as any other business.Say a timber merchant goes bankrupt the liquidators will sell of all the planks of wood he has in stock, to pay his creditors.

I would also expect one of the big irish banks to be bought out soon, they are going quite cheap at the moment, though another bank may not want the risk of being exposed to our own plummeting housing market.

Thanks for explaining that Smithy, I'm a little wiser now...........

................ But I still say fu*k 'em!

TPD

As long as my savings are ok, I dont mind.

earlyevening

Should I take a day off work tomorrow to watch the global financial meltdown live on Sky?
How low will the ISEQ go tomorrow?
Should I buy lots of tinned food, a shotgun and tons of bullets?

Earthhorse

dsmythy wrote: »

I see the DOW ended up down 777.7

What message does the 7's send?

Sounds like this monkey's gone to heaven.

Darragh29

But here's the question....

The timber merchant goes t*ts up, the government won't want to know, well the Revenue will but that's just because they are secured creditors so when the timber is sold, they get their bill in first...

The state or the government won't care about the matter, outside of outstanding Revenue matters being settled.

So if the banks have assets and they have run out of money, then why doesn't the liquidator move in, another bank buys the loan book, why does the state step in to back up the bank but nobody else???

Stheno

Given the banks fear of lending to each other, should we expect interest rates to go up?

If so by how much?

Thanks

Darragh29

I just got this graph off the internet, it shows how the market reacted immediately after hearing this news, this is scary stuff if you ask me...

Orizio

Money will be worthless, everybodies savings will be wiped out, and all the little warmongerers on the continent will be at each other's throats yet again. Thank god nobody gives a **** about the Irish.

History always repeats itself...

ninebeanrows

earlyevening wrote: »

Should I take a day off work tomorrow to watch the global financial meltdown live on Sky?
How low will the ISEQ go tomorrow?
Should I buy lots of tinned food, a shotgun and tons of bullets?

15% could be wiped of the ISEQ tomorrow and some Irish banks could fail before the weeks end.

So Yes:pac:

I've always wanted to rub my arse with a 50euro note

shenanigans1982

Deleted User wrote: »

I've always wanted to rub my arse with a 50euro note

Just make sure to use both sides....we are in a recession incase you didn't know.

Dubh Geannain

silver linings and all that

earlyevening

whisper whisper....we could be living in a Mad Max post apocalyptic world by the end of the week. Pass it on.

Maybe everyone will be shagging in the streets if the markets fall another 20%, the banks all stop lending and the Government collapses through lack of cash.

irish_bob

TPD wrote: »

As long as my savings are ok, I dont mind.

they wont be if things get bad enough , the goverment cant bail out all the banks

BlitzKrieg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeo0_3gN190

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Deleted User wrote: »

I've always wanted to rub my arse with a 50euro note

Already done it. It's still in circulation somwhere.

dsmythy

Orizio wrote: »

Money will be worthless, everybodies savings will be wiped out, and all the little warmongerers on the continent will be at each other's throats yet again. Thank god nobody gives a **** about the Irish.

History always repeats itself...

The Brits will give us a slap or something.

ejmaztec

Ikky Poo2 wrote: »

Already done it. It's still in circulation somwhere.

Another satisfied chugger :eek:

SimpleSam06

j1smithy wrote:

If a bank takes in €10 in deposits and has a 10% retention, it can lend €100 thus adding (creating) €90 to the economy.

I think this underlines two of the most serious failings of the current financial system. First of all you have the people who stand to make profits from the money supply, in charge of the money supply, and second they don't actually add any value to the economy, just increase the money supply, which mostly goes straight into inflation (reducing the value of money). I doubt that a major overhaul of the world economy is on the cards no matter what happens, but things are seriously flawed as it stands.

earlyevening wrote: »

Should I buy lots of tinned food, a shotgun and tons of bullets?

Nah, life for most people will go on just as it always has for the next while. You won't see the shockwaves from this hitting the ground for a while yet. This time next year will probably be a different story though.

BlitzKrieg

The Brits will give us a slap or something.

they'll go all churchill and conclude to survivethe upcoming war they will need to reclaim their *strategic* points.

sadly we dont have anyone like old Dev at the moment to simply say no.

And that was my small bit of patriotic spam for the year. thank you.

earlyevening

"Professor, without knowing exactly what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Yes I would Kent."

Darragh29

RTE get on my t*ts, they pedal out the exact economists who 2 years ago were telling us about a soft landing and ridiculing anyone who didn't agree with their rosy faily tale picture of the economy. These people should be ashamed to have their faces shown on the air/TVwaves...

ejmaztec

Has the Irish government got a strategy regarding the short-sellers? Given that these guys have been edged out of the UK and the US, they can make a killing in places like Ireland, especially with the likes of Anglo, if they're not doing it to them already.

j1smithy

Darragh29 wrote: »

But here's the question....

The timber merchant goes t*ts up, the government won't want to know, well the Revenue will but that's just because they are secured creditors so when the timber is sold, they get their bill in first...

The state or the government won't care about the matter, outside of outstanding Revenue matters being settled.

So if the banks have assets and they have run out of money, then why doesn't the liquidator move in, another bank buys the loan book, why does the state step in to back up the bank but nobody else???

Thats the very same question many republicans were asking in congress today. Mom and Pop stores dont get help and are allowed to go under however big banks will be bailed out. In America the situation is a lot more complicated and has a lot to do with confidence. I believe much of US debt is in the hands of foreigners mostly chineese and japaneese, and they have a lot of money invested in those banks. If they went under many people believe they wouldn't touch the US economy with a barge poll. The large banks (esp in the USA) are too big to fail completely, without doing serious damage to the broader economy. This is for institutional independence, money generation, and the willingness of foreigners to buy up US treasury Bonds.

I'm not an economist so i am open to correction

Dubh Geannain

ejmaztec wrote: »

Has the Irish government got a strategy regarding the short-sellers? Given that these guys have been edged out of the UK and the US, they can make a killing in places like Ireland, especially with the likes of Anglo, if they're not doing it to them already.

they banned short selling of Ireland's big 4 banks already

MooseJam

SELL SELL SELL

poxy

AP is reporting that 'Ireland is THE worst hit so far from the global credit crunch'

- now, im not an economist but if the yanks cannot sort out there own patch and the Brits are all but finished - how the fook does anyone expect little paddy land to teach them all how it is done:pac:

WE IS FOOKED.

j1smithy

ejmaztec wrote: »

Has the Irish government got a strategy regarding the short-sellers? Given that these guys have been edged out of the UK and the US, they can make a killing in places like Ireland, especially with the likes of Anglo, if they're not doing it to them already.

Short selling is banned on the big four Irish bank stock at the moment. Has been for a little while now, though according to the independent 7 major hedge funds have bet against the irish banks and are holding their position.

Manic Moran

Ikky Poo2 wrote: »

Not being the most knowledageable person about US politics, will this have an impact on the election? Will we see republicans going against McCain?

No worse than Democrats going against Obama. Much fingerpointing is going on at the Republicans for this failure, but it is worth noting that the Democrats didn't need the Republicans to vote for it in order to pass: They have a majority in the House. As it happened, even with a third of Republicans voting in line with Bush and the Democrat leadership's wishes, there were still sufficiant defections from the Democrat side of the aisle for the motion to fail. The opposition to this bailout has been far and wide, on both sides of the spectrum. Nobody likes it, just some people think it's a necessary evil, some don't, and some think it needs a bit more tweaking before they'd support it.

But yes, as someone mentioned, this is one of those cases where it's handy to live in a dictatorship. "I said we'll do this. Any objections? *BANG* Any other objections? Right.. done. Banks saved"

NTM

Overheal

BroomBurner wrote: »

Sure we would have been f*cked either way. Where did the US government think they were gonna get 700 billion dollars all of a sudden?

The Treasury and US Mints would enter immediate production of $700 billion in note and coin.

Darragh29 wrote: »

I'd say Osama Bin Laden is cracking open the Dutch Gold in whatever cave he is in right now...

Isnt that against his religion? What a loser.

aloleary wrote: »

America spent weekend trying to sort this mess out and faild
China had a spacewalk

Soviet Union collapsed trying to wage war in Afghanistan and frantically borrowed money to support its military might....

Parallel that to the US to day and Iraq etc...

Times they are a changin'

Indeed. Yet McCain and many republican voters still insist on seeing "Victory" in Iraq. Just how many centuries of civil war and infighting jihads and holy wars and crusades does it take before we learn that victory is an illusion in the Middle East?

Ikky Poo2 wrote: »

Not being the most knowledageable person about US politics, will this have an impact on the election? Will we see republicans going against McCain?

I do think that his plays in the last week have fudged him a bit. Polls indicate Obama is gaining a lot of momentum with voters: he is perceived as being able to handle economic issues much better than McCain. In short the fortnight lead McCain had after nominating Palin has well and truly gone.

Stev_o wrote: »

So on a scale of 1 to 9000 how f*cked are we?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq5csKvXCT4

dsmythy wrote: »

I see the DOW ended up down 777.7

What message does the 7's send?

BUY BUY BUY!

Come on. 4 7's? Biggest drop in history? Expect to see a sharp recovery in the DOW tomorrow as people with money to invest inject it back into the economy while stock prices are at record lows.

is_that_so

It'll be at least another day before anything happens,seeing as Congress is in recess tomorrow. They reckon a new vote is likely on Thursday. A day of carnage on world and US markets will help focus minds I reckon.

bug

Campbells soup and Morrisons, (the equivalent of yellow pack if yellow pack were a supermarket), were up.

Oh by the way for those of you thinking of buying gold with your hard earned cash, they are only selling at a min of €50K just FYI.

Does this mean financially they may have to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan?

Think I'll put my sack on a stick and go herd goats in the Peruvian Mountains and wait this one out. Someone tell me when its all over.

By the way was it me or did the guy behind Nancy Pelosi look like he got sick in his mouth a little bit during her announcement?

copacetic

Overheal wrote: »

Come on. 4 7's? Biggest drop in history? Expect to see a sharp recovery in the DOW tomorrow as people with money to invest inject it back into the economy while stock prices are at record lows.

not a hope:rolleyes:

xOxSinéadxOx

but why did they vote against it?

Darragh29

j1smithy wrote: »

Thats the very same question many republicans were asking in congress today. Mom and Pop stores dont get help and are allowed to go under however big banks will be bailed out. In America the situation is a lot more complicated and has a lot to do with confidence. I believe much of US debt is in the hands of foreigners mostly chineese and japaneese, and they have a lot of money invested in those banks. If they went under many people believe they wouldn't touch the US economy with a barge poll. The large banks (esp in the USA) are too big to fail completely, without doing serious damage to the broader economy. This is for institutional independence, money generation, and the willingness of foreigners to buy up US treasury Bonds.

I'm not an economist so i am open to correction

This notion of a bank being too big to fail reminds me of times I've heard lads I know giving out fu*k about their boss and how much they hated their boss and how bad their business relationship was. It occured to me to ask did they not worry for their employment, given the obvious hostility.

The usual response I'd get was "they can't afford to let me go, I run that place, if I left, the whole place would fold the following week"...

One day it happened that one lad I knew who had been of the above opinion, rang me to say he had just been fired.

We went out for a pint and talked about it. This guy said to me, "I thought I was indespensible, the truth is that when you get fired, it's like having your hand in a bowl of water and taking it out. Before you take your hand out, there are no ripples. You take your hand out, for 15 seconds there are a few ripples, and then the surface returns to how it was before you removed your hand, or even before you put your hand in the water in the first place"...

OPENROAD

copacetic wrote: »

not a hope:rolleyes:

Indeed but the thing with the financial markets is that they can rally very very quickly, just look back to 2003, the biggest gains can happen over a very short period of days.

bug

xOxSinéadxOx wrote: »

but why did they vote against it?

One of the reasons;

There is an election coming up.
Each one of those guys represents the people.

The people aren't too happy baling out Wall Street.
They want to stay in power.

is_that_so

xOxSinéadxOx wrote: »

but why did they vote against it?

BBC linky

OPENROAD

xOxSinéadxOx wrote: »

but why did they vote against it?

Two reasons imo.

1. Election is coming up.

2. Goes against the Republican philosophy of market intervention.

ninebeanrows

How come on Q&A they haven't mentioned once that the ISEQ feel 13% today, its biggest fall in History?

That Irish banks are being raided?

I think lots of people seriously have their heads under their pillows.

bug

Weathercheck wrote: »

How come on Q&A they haven't mentioned once that the ISEQ feel 13% today, its biggest fall in History?

That Irish banks are being raided?

I think lots of people seriously have their heads under their pillows.

Probably because they are waiting for the real **** to hit the fan tomorrow.

MooseJam

will the net go offline ?

Ace2007

If the media didn't concentrate on the matter so much, there wouldn't be as much of a panic...

is_that_so

Probably and the world will stop spinning for a while too and we'll have wall to wall George Lee.

partyatmygaff

am i the only here who doesnt get it / doesnt really care?


sure $700Billion is just pocket change:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Its a weak attempt by RTE to cover the collapse even that looney woman on Q&A mentioned the inefficiency of the RTE News coverage.

Its almost criminal under reporting of the state of the Irish economy this evening.

Overheal

Dont panic, click: http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/consumerist/2008/09/shortermlongterm.jpg

missingtime

A B C

A - Always
B - Be
C - Closing

bug

partyatmygaff wrote: »

am i the only here who doesnt get it / doesnt really care?


sure $700Billion is just pocket change:rolleyes:

No I don't really care either. Purely because I own/owe nothing except an ipod and this laptop.