How many viewings are sellers getting?

jackal

axel rose wrote: »

radio I never siad that I was in negative equity. I was refering posts where climate expert stated that some vendors are forced to sell at any price. I would hate for anyone to be in such a situation. Ive never done the poor me-all I wanted to know if other people were getting more viewings! In a perfect world house prices would be stable.

I cant understand the nastiness and what I can only describe jealously when it comes to house prices. ( not aiming this at you directly but overall on this section) Its mad.


some of us poor eejits had to watch years of crap weekend tv to buy our houses. Imagine the highlight of your weekend being winning streak and the late late for all that time! Now for that I want sympathy

I think your selling strategy was sound. Its just a feature of how bad the market is that it took so long for someone to buy. The days of houses selling as soon as they hit the market are well and truly gone. A bunch of my friends both bought and sold properties over the last year.

The ones that sold made a big effort to make the house presentable, then undercut the market significantly. They still both made nice profits, but they were not greedy.

The friends who bought, bought a house that was undercutting the market significantly.

I think its clear what to do if you want to sell. Undercut the price of your peers.

There are buyers out there, but they are few. If your house is priced the same as 10 others in an estate, you are very unlikely to get an offer. People are sitting and waiting and unless they see really good value, they will continue to sit and wait. The fear of not buying is gone, to be replaced by the fear of not getting value by buying too early in this property price crash.

axel rose

jackal wrote: »

I think your selling strategy was sound. Its just a feature of how bad the market is that it took so long for someone to buy. The days of houses selling as soon as they hit the market are well and truly gone. A bunch of my friends both bought and sold properties over the last year.

The ones that sold made a big effort to make the house presentable, then undercut the market significantly. They still both made nice profits, but they were not greedy.

The friends who bought, bought a house that was undercutting the market significantly.

I think its clear what to do if you want to sell. Undercut the price of your peers.

There are buyers out there, but they are few. If your house is priced the same as 10 others in an estate, you are very unlikely to get an offer. People are sitting and waiting and unless they see really good value, they will continue to sit and wait. The fear of not buying is gone, to be replaced by the fear of not getting value by buying too early in this property price crash.

I think Jackal has got it spot on

uoluol

Axel - have being following this saga from a distance - and must admit to being impressed on how you articulately put your experience across.

As someone who has been through the house sale process not so many months ago, I completely understand how frustrating it is to ride the roller coaster of viewings followed by ridiculously and time wasting offers. And as for nosey neighbours....

Anyway congrats on the house sale, and hope all goes smoothly and pain free for you:)

mathie

uoluol wrote: »

ridiculously and time wasting offers.

Out of interest what percentage of the asking price did they offer?

M

serfboard

jackal wrote: »

The fear of not buying is gone, to be replaced by the fear of not getting value by buying too early in this property price crash.

Very well put.

axel rose

mathie wrote: »

Out of interest what percentage of the asking price did they offer?

M

mathie, check out post 55.

Zambia

I have to say there will never be a dead stop in sales , unless you live in Northern Ireland , you could install 24 hour strippers in the living room here and still get no viewings.

However if you drop the price enough it makes financial sense for someone to buy, their mortgage will be < the rent they are currently paying. Granted the price may fall further on any property but at some stage you have to commit if you want to own a property.

As for gazumping or gazundering if you have commited either you are simply proving to the world your word means nothing, I value my word well over 20 grand some day you can earn another 20 grand. Once your word is tainted its tainted.

Axel I wish you the best in your sale. I see no reason to think you are not 100% on the level (re the plant comment).

SimpleSam06

axel rose wrote: »

I cant understand the nastiness and what I can only describe jealously when it comes to house prices. ( not aiming this at you directly but overall on this section) Its mad.

The "nastiness" as you describe it comes from the realisation that many people around here have of the tremendous damage that was inflicted on the economy and the country as a whole by the last ten years' property cheerleading. Nothing of value was gained and most people who thought they were going to make a fortune didn't - that was mostly property developers, banks, and flippers who never held a mortgage.

You can say that massive amounts of money was pumped into the economy, but that was loans held against future earnings, sacrificing the country for what, a bloated and inefficient public sector? Bah.

And as for jealousy, to be honest I wouldn't inflict the negative equity/unable to sell/stuck in a shoebox situation on my worst enemy.

Zambia232 wrote: »

As for gazumping or gazundering if you have commited either you are simply proving to the world your word means nothing, I value my word well over 20 grand some day you can earn another 20 grand. Once your word is tainted its tainted.

Actually you are only proving that to the person you are dealing with, the world doesn't give a damn, even if it ever found out, which it won't, and may very well approve of saving 20 grand with a bit a fancy footwork. The shoe was on the other foot not so long ago and we didn't hear too many property owners complaining about it then!

It's just business folks, and this sort of thing happens in business all the time. Occasionally I have to deal with people who owe me a lot of money, but just barely not enough to make it worth my while chasing them in court, and they know it full well. Write it off as a bad debt and move on, or make sure you have other buyers on the line.

SparkyLarks

It's very intresting reading this thread and I think it explains as much about the human mind as the property market.

People who have a position will normally use the evidence to support their position. the peopel who now say if a house isn't selling it is over priced. and that the asking price isnt the value of a house but what the market is wilin to pay.

Would those people agree that a house that now would only sell for 380 was aold for 500,000 a few years ago was worth that at the time.

Or would they have been complaining as the house soared from an asking of 400,000.

As said before the market is supply and demand, so when demand was high and supply the price soared, so obviously everyone wanted in and now we have an over supply, and then new house building slows down. which in Ireland it has.

It is actualy most probable that in a few years there will be a cronic shortage again and prices will start to pick up quickly. and there will be people on here probably still saying the market is falling, as there was people who wer on a few months ago saying peopery was still going up.

I sold in January and will be looking to buy again next year. Personal issues why I can;t buy sooner. And It looks like I'll do well out of that. But I'll be buying next year, assuming I get a morgadge. I'm not waiting till I see the bottom. That is as risky as trying to selll at the peak. I'll just be hoping to find a house tha I want to live in for a price that I ca afford

SimpleSam06

SparkyLarks wrote: »

People who have a position will normally use the evidence to support their position. the peopel who now say if a house isn't selling it is over priced. and that the asking price isnt the value of a house but what the market is wilin to pay.

No you're making a fairly common mistake here, in confusing value with price; Irish houses have been very much overpriced the last few years, and now are apporaching true value. They are two very different things, like affordability and price. I'm not sure what the complaint is with the "worth what the market will pay for it" comments, it was true then and its true now. You seem to be complaining that house prices are going down, basically.

SparkyLarks wrote: »

It is actualy most probable that in a few years there will be a cronic shortage again and prices will start to pick up quickly.

No, even if no houses are built for the next three years, not one, demand will not be exceeded. Add to that 20 to 30k houses being built every year, which is pretty close to natural demand, and you have an overhang that just isn't going away.

SparkyLarks wrote: »

I sold in January and will be looking to buy again next year. Personal issues why I can;t buy sooner.

Can I ask you why you felt the need to qualify that decision? Would your fellow property owners be looking down their noses at you or something?

The_Conductor

SparkyLarks wrote: »

Would those people agree that a house that now would only sell for 380 was aold for 500,000 a few years ago was worth that at the time.

It was Publius Sirus who said over 2000 years ago- everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it.......

If a purchaser was willing to pay 500k 3 years ago- it was worth 500k 3 years ago- if a purchaser is now only willing to pay 380k for the same property- its now worth 380k.......

Thats life.......

Tigger

smccarrick wrote: »

It was Publius Sirus who said over 2000 years ago- everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it.......

If a purchaser was willing to pay 500k 3 years ago- it was worth 500k 3 years ago- if a purchaser is now only willing to pay 380k for the same property- its now worth 380k.......

Thats life.......

there is price and value

value is often determined by price
translation of vwhat syrus said is acually "Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it." but thats only a small matter

the value of property at the moment cannot be determined by price as the price od property at the moment to most intents is irrelevant
people cannot and willnot buy at the moment as has been pointed out in this thread "the fear of not purchasing and prices then rising has been replaced wityh the fearof purchasing and prices falling"

i put forward a link to three alternatitive ways of determining value but really only one of them determines value the other two strive to guess the price in the future (upon stability)
others in this thread and throughout this forum have tried to explain that the value is if you are setteled if the house suits you and if you can afford the price


the humman nature side of things here is what fasicinates me though

house owners have a vested interest in these prices not falling and those who aspire to purchase have the opposite vestment

in my opinion house prices will drop a good bit more and then there will never be a shortage again

but whadda i know

Tigger

smccarrick wrote: »

It was Publius Sirus who said over 2000 years ago- everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it.......

If a purchaser was willing to pay 500k 3 years ago- it was worth 500k 3 years ago- if a purchaser is now only willing to pay 380k for the same property- its now worth 380k.......

Thats life.......

there is price and value

value is often determined by price
translation of vwhat syrus said is acually "Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it." but thats only a small matter

the value of property at the moment cannot be determined by price as the price od property at the moment to most intents is irrelevant
people cannot and willnot buy at the moment as has been pointed out in this thread "the fear of not purchasing and prices then rising has been replaced wityh the fearof purchasing and prices falling"

i put forward a link to three alternatitive ways of determining value but really only one of them determines value the other two strive to guess the price in the future (upon stability)
others in this thread and throughout this forum have tried to explain that the value is if you are setteled if the house suits you and if you can afford the price


the humman nature side of things here is what fasicinates me though

house owners have a vested interest in these prices not falling and those who aspire to purchase have the opposite vestment

in my opinion house prices will drop a good bit more and then there will never be a shortage again

but whadda i know

ZYX

Tigger wrote: »

people cannot and willnot buy at the moment as has been pointed out in this thread "the fear of not purchasing and prices then rising has been replaced wityh the fearof purchasing and prices falling"

This type of comment annoys me and it is constantly being made on this site. People are buying property at the rate of about 5500 per month.
http://www.ibf.ie/pdfs/ibf_pwc_mortgage_Q208.pdf

spockety

ZYX wrote: »

This type of comment annoys me and it is constantly being made on this site. People are buying property at the rate of about 5500 per month.
http://www.ibf.ie/pdfs/ibf_pwc_mortgage_Q208.pdf

Why are you introducing facts to the argument?

Sure we already know that sale agreed means nothing, because banks have actually stopped handing out mortgages! It must be true, I read it on this thread.

gurramok

Here we go again. We all know and have acknowledged people are still buying, transactions are happening. to say otherwise is foolish.

Its the VOLUME of transactions that has plummeted while at the same time supply has rocketed which gives the term a drought in house sales a more valid reason to say it.

The numbers of purchasers of houses have gone down from about 28,000 to 16,500 which is a 45% drop in 2 years (top-ups and remortgages are not in effect buyers of units).
And guess what, it is going to get worse as we enter the start of a deep recession hence the gloomy outlook for the market posted by posters is damn well legit.

spockety

gurramok wrote: »

Here we go again. We all know and have acknowledged people are still buying, transactions are happening. to say otherwise is foolish.

Its the VOLUME of transactions that has plummeted while at the same time supply has rocketed which gives the term a drought in house sales a more valid reason to say it.

The numbers of purchasers of houses have gone down from about 28,000 to 16,500 which is a 45% drop in 2 years (top-ups and remortgages are not in effect buyers of units).
And guess what, it is going to get worse as we enter the start of a deep recession hence the gloomy outlook for the market posted by posters is damn well legit.

So you have no problem with people posting up things like "banks have stopped handing out mortgage loans", or "people cannot buy and will not buy right now" etc.?

Whatever about deluded sellers, there is a lot of delusion at the other end of the scale that does not help anyone who is trying to put forward a realistic and pragmatic argument about what exactly is happening in the market now, and what will happen to it in the future.

The_Conductor

Guys- stick to facts in other people's posts. If you disagree with their post- refute the information in the post. No personal comments, sarcasm, snide remarks etc. Keep on-topic.......

gurramok

spockety wrote: »

So you have no problem with people posting up things like "banks have stopped handing out mortgage loans", or "people cannot buy and will not buy right now" etc.?

No. They are speaking in general terms of volume, not in absolute terms. If they said 'a single person ain't buying', then they are misleading in their views.
A minority are still buying/selling for whatever reason's they choose. Simple as that.
Correct advice now is not to buy due to market/economic conditions, you cannot stop anyone who chooses to buy with or without the proper advice.

ZYX

gurramok wrote: »

Here we go again. We all know and have acknowledged people are still buying, transactions are happening. to say otherwise is foolish.

Its the VOLUME of transactions that has plummeted while at the same time supply has rocketed which gives the term a drought in house sales a more valid reason to say it.

The numbers of purchasers of houses have gone down from about 28,000 to 16,500 which is a 45% drop in 2 years (top-ups and remortgages are not in effect buyers of units).
And guess what, it is going to get worse as we enter the start of a deep recession hence the gloomy outlook for the market posted by posters is damn well legit.

Well of course the number of purchasers has dropped from the 2006. But if you listen to people on this site, 2006 was the peak when bankers went out on the streets and shoved money down people’s throats. That number was unsustainable. The number has dropped from 9000 a month which just about everyone agrees was too high. It is now about 5500 a month. If you listen to people here 5500 translates as "no one is buying". 5500 a month seems like a large amount of buyers to me.
This is important because again the experts here say everyone should drop their price by 20% to get a sale. Yet clearly the figures show people are not dropping by that much and yet a still getting a huge amount of sales.
On top of this, there is junk property out there. 1 bedroom apartments anywhere, almost any section 23 apartment, any apartment outside urban area. This type of property can expect to drop enormously. Other properties will see very large drops such as an identikit 3 bedroom semi in places like Lucan, Clonee and other such places. As can be seen at present, these are not selling and when they do are dropping in price far more than other areas. That still leaves a lot of properties that sell much more easily and whose price is not falling nearly as much.

The_Conductor

I'm not sure where you are getting your 5,500 a month sales figures from? If you are referring to absolute numbers of mortgages issued- In 2006, there were 182,000 successful mortgage applications, 2007, 158,000 successful mortgage applications, 2008, projected 115,000 successful mortgage applications, 2009 projected 100-105,000 successful mortgage applications. (Note: these figures are based on Tax Relief at Source granted by the Revenue Commissioners, or projections from the Revenue Commissioners- and include all equity release mortgages approved). By these calculations- there will continue to be a contraction (albeit slowing) in the mortgage business in 2009 and 2010.....

This years figures are notable for a few interesting trends which have continued to develop- In Q3 First Time buyers are still less than 20% of the market, Those trading up has fallen to just over 15% in Q3, just under 23% of the mortgages relate to people coming off fixed term products and remortgaging, Equity release is increasing again- now at almost 34% of all mortgages issued, Investors are now less than 10% of the total market.

Available units countrywide are still increasing- with over 13,000 empty new units now in the Dublin area alone (according to the Sunday Tribune in early August- article here). As for rural developments- Carrick-on-Shannon may have hit the headlines for the wrong reasons, but its far from an isolated case- the West and Northwest are littered with half built or totally abondoned developments.

According to today's Irish Indo (story here) the average estate agency is now selling between 5 and 6 houses a month, down from 8 in 2007 and 13-14 in 2006. Those are interesting figures.....

Finfacts has a lot of very interesting information too- but there is no point in my cutting and pasting ad nauseum.......

S.

ZYX

smccarrick wrote: »

I'm not sure where you are getting your 5,500 a month sales figures from?

Here.
http://www.ibf.ie/pdfs/ibf_pwc_mortgage_Q208.pdf

smccarrick wrote: »

This years figures are notable for a few interesting trends which have continued to develop- In Q3 First Time buyers are still less than 20% of the market, Those trading up has fallen to just over 15% in Q3, just under 23% of the mortgages relate to people coming off fixed term products and remortgaging, Equity release is increasing again- now at almost 34% of all mortgages issued, Investors are now less than 10% of the total market.

Again based on IBF figures. In Q2 2006, FTBs made up 17.6% of mortgages. In Q2 2008 they made up 17.4%. Investors are 12% of total mortgage market compared to 13.3% in Q2 2006. Top ups are 31.1% of all mortgages compared to 34% in Q2 2006

smccarrick wrote: »

Available units countrywide are still increasing- with over 13,000 empty new units now in the Dublin area alone (according to the Sunday Tribune in early August- article here). As for rural developments- Carrick-on-Shannon may have hit the headlines for the wrong reasons, but its far from an isolated case- the West and Northwest are littered with half built or totally abondoned developments.

S.

Pretty much the point I was making. There is some total rubbish out there that will be very hard to sell. This is obviously dragging down the average house price. The response here however is always "drop your price 20%", "no one will buy your house" without knowing anything about the particular property. A friend of mine bought a house in Dublin 8 in 2005 for €606,000. He has just sold it. Had he come to this site first he would have been told it would never sell etc etc. He has just sold fit or €850,000. I know this isn't the norm but it happens.

gurramok

The figure is per quarter as in Q2 smccarrick.

ZYX wrote:

This is important because again the experts here say everyone should drop their price by 20% to get a sale. Yet clearly the figures show people are not dropping by that much and yet a still getting a huge amount of sales.

Where you getting these 'figures' from?

We don't have access to a sales database as its not allowed under law. What we have is either the mortgage volume/loan value from IBF OR TSB/ESRI index sampling OR the level of asking price drops that occur(IPW)

Sources such as the TSB/ESRI index sampling and IPW show that the price drops to get a sale are extensive and sometimes deep, where's your data to say it's not?

The_Conductor

ZYX wrote: »

A friend of mine bought a house in Dublin 8 in 2005 for €606,000. He has just sold it. Had he come to this site first he would have been told it would never sell etc etc. He has just sold fit or €850,000. I know this isn't the norm but it happens.

Its far from being unusual either- but the basic tenant of buying property applies- location, location, location. D8 may not be D4 or D6, but it is a desireable location- and a reasonable house in D8 will always have a relative demand associated with it.

I wouldn't say its not the norm- its may not be the norm in general, but if someone made a good call when buying first time round and is a good location- they have an immediate advantage over other sellers in the market.

ionapaul

Some of the biggest % falls (at least in terms of asking price; as stated above, we have no idea what houses are actually selling for in this country!) have been in D4 and D6 though, not in the 1 bedroom apartments in suburbia. I think that all those saying 'yeah, property still has a good bit to fall, but not 3-bed semis in Dublin, surely not' will be proven dead wrong. It will be an interesting few years in any case...

ZYX

gurramok wrote: »

Where you getting these 'figures' from?

We don't have access to a sales database as its not allowed under law. What we have is either the mortgage volume/loan value from IBF OR TSB/ESRI index sampling OR the level of asking price drops that occur(IPW)

Sources such as the TSB/ESRI index sampling and IPW show that the price drops to get a sale are extensive and sometimes deep, where's your data to say it's not?

But I just quoted the IBF figures. People are obviously getting mortgages on property. If you eclude top-ups and remortgages, then surely the rest is from property changing hands. I accept the figure may be higher (cash buyers) but how could it be lower?

DJDC

Originally Posted by ZYX
A friend of mine bought a house in Dublin 8 in 2005 for €606,000. He has just sold it. Had he come to this site first he would have been told it would never sell etc etc. He has just sold fit or €850,000. I know this isn't the norm but it happens.

That buyer was an idiot. The whole captalism model is under severe strain right now. The DOW is having is having its worse decade ever(worse than 1930's),first world countries are starting to look like they could default on their soverign debt,CDS spreads are higher than ever,LIBOR is firmly high.

My prediction for Ireland: Unemployment to approach 10% and house prices to fall 40% from 2006 peak.

Raskolnikov

I think we definitely started to see activity coming back into the market during early Autumn. The problem is that the financial crisis started and now the banks are holding off on giving mortgage approval.

We won't see activity returning to the market until the Spring selling season.

Climate Expert

We won't see activity returning to the market until the Spring selling season.

In 2011.

Gareth37

DJDC wrote: »

That buyer was an idiot. The whole captalism model is under severe strain right now. The DOW is having is having its worse decade ever(worse than 1930's),first world countries are starting to look like they could default on their soverign debt,CDS spreads are higher than ever,LIBOR is firmly high.

My prediction for Ireland: Unemployment to approach 10% and house prices to fall 40% from 2006 peak.

My prediction over next 3 years: Unemployment 50%, house valueless :eek:

Banks are going out of business and lets not pretend that Brian Cowen can back up everything because he can't. Its lies.