DOE - House prices could fall up to 46% in 2009

oceanclub

321654 wrote: »

I am saying that ANYONE who thinks that they can predict what will happen in the economy more than 2 - 3 years in advance is an idiot.

I'm just curious; what are your qualifications that you know much about economics and how it works? Or are you just one of the pub philosophers you go on about yourself?

The facts are simple; for most of the past hundred years, house prices in the western world have risen with inflation. If they go out of whack with inflation, invariably they return to that average. In the case of Ireland, this meant that a crash was almost bound to happen. It's not clairvoyance, it's basic maths, and to call McWilliams an "idiot" for saying this just proves your own deep ignorance.

when i said "people who knew anything about what they were talking" i was talking about those who had some education in economics

Just to be clear on this; are you saying that anyone with an education in economics in Ireland in the past 10 years was predicting a crash? I would hate to put words in your mouth, so please let me know if this is, indeed, what you are claiming, contrary to all the evidence.

P.

321654

oceanclub wrote: »

I'm just curious; what are your qualifications that you know much about economics and how it works? Or are you just one of the pub philosophers you go on about yourself?

The facts are simple; for most of the past hundred years, house prices in the western world have risen with inflation. If they go out of whack with inflation, invariably they return to that average. In the case of Ireland, this meant that a crash was almost bound to happen. It's not clairvoyance, it's basic maths, and to call McWilliams an "idiot" for saying this just proves your own deep ignorance.



Just to be clear on this; are you saying that anyone with an education in economics in Ireland in the past 10 years was predicting a crash? I would hate to put words in your mouth, so please let me know if this is, indeed, what you are claiming, contrary to all the evidence.

P.

I have studied economics at third level, though i work in IT now.
I wont even attempt to give you a prediction on where the economy is going. I will however wildly predict that - if the economy bounces back in those 10 years you will see property price growth again and there will be more talk of prices not falling ever again as things are different now .. yada yada yada.

And David McWilliams will take whichever view he can get the most press out of and eventually be right after several years again. He plays the public opinion. Far more money in that. More press for setting up the "i told you so" than being right every year.

Regarding peoples opinions (bar McWilliams the pop star), I was saying that even those who have training in economics get it wrong - a lot. But their skills are much better than the pub/internet amateur economist. They know they wont be right most of the time too as they are aware how futile predicting economic events are.

So, some hope for the accuracy of predictions from amateurs.

What are your qualifications by he way?

And predicitng economic changes is by no means "Basic maths" as you say. There are milions of variables, and noone in the world has got any grasp on it yet.

johnnyskeleton

321654 wrote: »

I have studied economics at third level, though i work in IT now.
I wont even attempt to give you a prediction on where the economy is going. I will however wildly predict that - if the economy bounces back in those 10 years you will see property price growth again and there will be more talk of prices not falling ever again as things are different now .. yada yada yada.

And David McWilliams will take whichever view he can get the most press out of and eventually be right after several years again. He plays the public opinion. Far more money in that. More press for setting up the "i told you so" than being right every year.

You seem to forget that David McWilliams didn't merely say there will a property crash sometime, he said two things:
1. property prices at the time were unsustainable in comparison with the fundamental values and with regard to historical lending norms
2. if the situation wasn't addressed it would lead to a crash.

I don't think it was his intention to say "I think there'll be a crash, just wait and you'll see I'm right", instead he was saying "If we all face the reality of the situation, we can get it under control and avoid serious disaster". Unfortunately he was ignored, and instead of minor remediation e.g. allowing property prices to stagnate (drop in real terms) and preventing the excesses of the financial sector, we are now faced with a massive headache. So saying that McWilliams was bound to be right eventually is nonsense as he never wanted things to get this bad. He argued instead that the price of avoiding a crash was to become more frugal, and society ignored him to their peril.

So, even though I'm not a big fan of McWilliams, don't misrepresent what he was saying. He analysed the market, pointed out the problems, and cautioned of what would happen if his views were disregarded.

321654 wrote:

Regarding peoples opinions (bar McWilliams the pop star), I was saying that even those who have training in economics get it wrong - a lot. But their skills are much better than the pub/internet amateur economist. They know they wont be right most of the time too as they are aware how futile predicting economic events are.

Actually, if you compare the amateur economists on thepropertypin.com, they have consistently proved themselves more accurate in their predictions than any bar a handful of mainstream commentators. The reality is that economists, like musicians, only get paid if people want to hear them, so there is something good to be said for the armchair economist who looks at the evidence, proffers his reasons and is prepared to debate the likely outcomes over the professional economist who says "I'm an economist, therefore you should believe me on faith alone".

ravendude

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

You seem to forget that David McWilliams didn't merely say there will a property crash sometime, he said two things:
1. property prices at the time were unsustainable in comparison with the fundamental values and with regard to historical lending norms
2. if the situation wasn't addressed it would lead to a crash.

I don't think it was his intention to say "I think there'll be a crash, just wait and you'll see I'm right", instead he was saying "If we all face the reality of the situation, we can get it under control and avoid serious disaster". Unfortunately he was ignored, and instead of minor remediation e.g. allowing property prices to stagnate (drop in real terms) and preventing the excesses of the financial sector, we are now faced with a massive headache. So saying that McWilliams was bound to be right eventually is nonsense as he never wanted things to get this bad. He argued instead that the price of avoiding a crash was to become more frugal, and society ignored him to their peril.

So, even though I'm not a big fan of McWilliams, don't misrepresent what he was saying. He analysed the market, pointed out the problems, and cautioned of what would happen if his views were disregarded.




Actually, if you compare the amateur economists on thepropertypin.com, they have consistently proved themselves more accurate in their predictions than any bar a handful of mainstream commentators. The reality is that economists, like musicians, only get paid if people want to hear them, so there is something good to be said for the armchair economist who looks at the evidence, proffers his reasons and is prepared to debate the likely outcomes over the professional economist who says "I'm an economist, therefore you should believe me on faith alone".

In fairness, his TV show "Future Shock" which was on about a year or two ago, was absolutely bang on. Practically everything he said in it has come to pass.

mirror mirror

if these eejits dont stop forecasting,predicting,inevitably,presuming,theyre talking people into a bigger recession than actually is.would they all ever f..k up and deal with it.think of something positive to say if not button up

oceanclub

mirror mirror wrote: »

if these eejits dont stop forecasting,predicting,inevitably,presuming,theyre talking people into a bigger recession than actually is.would they all ever f..k up and deal with it.think of something positive to say if not button up

After everything that's happened, I'm staggered there are people like you. Who. Just. Don't. Get. It. We tried the "saying positive" stuff over the last few years. You remember our past Taoiseach who told those who warned that things were going to go wrong that they should commit suicide?

"think of something positive to say"... like what? Unemployment has seen the biggest jump ever. We have a government completely out of their depth. We have hundred of thousands of empty houses in areas of the country where there is no work. We've already seen a 30% drop in prices and we're nowhere near the bottom; Morgan Kelly's prediction of an 80% drop in prices (taking inflation into account) isn't hysterical. We have a Taoiseach who just caused the Euro to sink by making wild accusations that we'd have to bring the IMF in.

If you can come up with something positive, go wild.

P.

ravendude

mirror mirror wrote: »

if these eejits dont stop forecasting,predicting,inevitably,presuming,theyre talking people into a bigger recession than actually is.would they all ever f..k up and deal with it.think of something positive to say if not button up

Sounds a bit like Bertie's infamous remark that those moaning about the Republic's economy should commit suicide. Of course, its STILL all just down to people talking down the economy. Most of what people are talking about is plain reality, unfortunately. Talking up/down doesn't make a difference. It's primarily down to fundamentals, - we absolutely must reduce our cost base so that people in other countries can actually afford to buy something we produce.

dan_d

It's not so much about finding something positive to say about the situation. It's more about finding a solution.Instead we get a lot of "plans", no actual solutions, and meanwhile we wallow in endless news about how awful things are.
We're not talking ourselves into a recession, but less of the hype about our "terrible" circumstances and more about what we can do to fix it please.
As for economic prediction.....the housing drop may have been predictable (or inevitable, it was going to happen sooner or later), but I don't think anyone could have predicted what has happened globally, least of all that they would happen at the same time.

ravendude

dan_d wrote: »

It's not so much about finding something positive to say about the situation. It's more about finding a solution.Instead we get a lot of "plans", no actual solutions, and meanwhile we wallow in endless news about how awful things are.
We're not talking ourselves into a recession, but less of the hype about our "terrible" circumstances and more about what we can do to fix it please.
As for economic prediction.....the housing drop may have been predictable (or inevitable, it was going to happen sooner or later), but I don't think anyone could have predicted what has happened globally, least of all that they would happen at the same time.

I do agree with that tbh. I'd love to see a few prime times, articles etc. exploring ways out of this mess. We all know its FUBAR, so it would be nice to put that to the side for the moment and do a program exploring ways out. Unfortunately all of the ways out involve some pain, so think it would be impossible to do any "negativity free" commentary.

ravendude

dan_d wrote: »

It's not so much about finding something positive to say about the situation. It's more about finding a solution.Instead we get a lot of "plans", no actual solutions, and meanwhile we wallow in endless news about how awful things are.
We're not talking ourselves into a recession, but less of the hype about our "terrible" circumstances and more about what we can do to fix it please.
As for economic prediction.....the housing drop may have been predictable (or inevitable, it was going to happen sooner or later), but I don't think anyone could have predicted what has happened globally, least of all that they would happen at the same time.

One thing I will say though, is that all the "talking things up" and not listening to the negative commentary (attempting to gag it even, thanks Bertie) led to considerable inertia. We could have been on top of things a long time ago had we called a spade a spade earlier on.

Dob74

mirror mirror wrote: »

if these eejits dont stop forecasting,predicting,inevitably,presuming,theyre talking people into a bigger recession than actually is.would they all ever f..k up and deal with it.think of something positive to say if not button up

Talking people into a recession is a load of bull. The housing market has been in free fall since the middle of 06. Funny its the same time AIB tried to sell most of there branches in a lease back scheme. It's this simple the banks where loaning too much money to everyone, especailly developers. Now they are very fussy about who they lend money too, especially developers.
If you live in a house and make a reasonable attempt to pay your mortgage they are not going to through you out on the streets. If you own a few investment properties and can't pay the mortgage they will just take them off you, its not the end of the world. Owning a house is not a way to gauranteed riches like the banks where implying up to recently. I personally think its a good thing that property is falling. I own a house and I cant see any benefit in it going up in price by 10% a year. It just means if I want to trade up it will be more expensive.

gurramok

I thanked mirror mirror's post for its comedy value!

Now, as well as a couple of million of you, i must get that money i don't have and spend it to keep the economy going and just keep positive while reading the tea leaves

niceirishfella

There was some deluded ejit auctioneer on the news this evening saying that prices will drop 5 - 10% more and then we'll see a recovery?




Yeah right.

Dob74

niceirishfella wrote: »

There was some deluded ejit auctioneer on the news this evening saying that prices will drop 5 - 10% more and then we'll see a recovery?




Yeah right.

Prime Time special had another auctioneer saying the same bull.

Oh wait we have an offer 20% more of a drop if you can match that its yours

ravendude

Dob74 wrote: »

Prime Time special had another auctioneer saying the same bull.

Oh wait we have an offer 20% more of a drop if you can match that its yours

When are they going to stop putting these fools on television. Seriously, no-one believes this talking up crap anymore. The taoiseach is at this crap as well today, saying the market is going to bottom out soon - I can't believe this rubbish, what a D***head. This really gets my blood pressure up. FF are bereft of any ideas to get us out of this mess so they revert to the only thing they know, talking up the bloody property market. They've been talking crap for years now. and for what? - to put a noose of debt around people's necks.

RTE and the newspapers are making idiots out of themselves wasting license fees giving these clowns airtime.

When are people in this stupid country going to learn that we can't build an economy on the property market. It's time to put it behind us and get back to building an export driven economy.

It's simple, we have to bring more money into the country than we send out, ie. need to export more than we import. No amount of property transactions will change that.

jmayo

Dob74 wrote: »

Prime Time special had another auctioneer saying the same bull.

Oh wait we have an offer 20% more of a drop if you can match that its yours

I just loved the way Geroge Lee dismissed the auctioneer after his statement how now farmers were buying land at reasonable price, with the question about where were they going to borrow the money :rolleyes:
The eejit from the ESRI was put back in his box as well.

ravendude wrote: »

When are they going to stop putting these fools on television. Seriously, no-one believes this talking up crap anymore. The taoiseach is at this crap as well today, saying the market is going to bottom out soon - I can't believe this rubbish, what a D***head. This really gets my blood pressure up. FF are bereft of any ideas to get us out of this mess so they revert to the only thing they know, talking up the bloody property market. They've been talking crap for years now. and for what? - to put a noose of debt around people's necks.

RTE and the newspapers are making idiots out of themselves wasting license fees giving these clowns airtime.

When are people in this stupid country going to learn that we can't build an economy on the property market. It's time to put it behind us and get back to building an export driven economy.

It's simple, we have to bring more money into the country than we send out, ie. need to export more than we import. No amount of property transactions will change that.

ravendude, didn't you know that biffos brother is an auctioneer AFAIK and so were some of his ex running mates. You know the one that is appearing in court a bit.
Any way he will probably be trying to sell his own gaff since rumour is he is moving to bigger more luxurious place since he is own gaff wioll be beside a new bypass.

jodaw

Fatloss08 wrote: »

in a way they need to keep there mouths shut , because thats whats stopping people buying , obviously everybody wants to save money , but if they came out and said house prices are on the increase etc and economy is picking up etc

people would react and spend , and want to get house's before they went up ( so to speak )

its all scare mongering , the media is creating the scare i think

Yeah great idea ...

Lets get back to ... more of the same

And the whole reason the country is Banjaxed!!