Budget 2009

dresden8

dresden8 wrote: »

And credit crunch?

As of 13/2/08 the Irish Banker's federation was reporting a still growing mortgage market. Availability of money was not a problem.

http://www.ibf.ie/PressRelease.asp?press_id=132

If you had a 20% deposit that is...
Also contrary to your opener,the first line of that link states "new lending continues to moderate".

Lending tightened from the fall of '07 and really tightened through 2008.Theres not much to be made in the economy from the proportion of it that is switching.

It dried up in the last couple of months.

asdasd

Is it not incredible that the Government makes cuts to the medical card for over 70 s,

No cuts. Means testing. Absolutely and totally justified. Old is not synonymous with poor.

asdasd

Meanwhile the aged, the sick, the poor

You clearly didnt watch, or read about,the same budget as I did. People are getting poor alright, the middle income groups with increasing negative equity and a 1% levy, not your groups.

dresden8

How about a slump in construction because of government policies which led to a glut in housing, built for the tax breaks. Take out the holiday homes that's still 216,000 empty dwellings.

http://www.cso.ie/census/census2006results/Volume_6/Vol6_Press_Release.pdf

There were 266,000 vacant dwellings in 2006 representing 15 per cent of the total housing stock. Of these, 175,000 were houses, 42,000 were flats and 50,000 were classified as holiday homes. County Leitrim had the highest percentage of vacant dwellings (29.3%) while 11.7 per cent of dwellings in Dublin City were vacant at the time of the census.

1 in eight dwellings in Dublin vacant? Leitrim 1 in 3? 1 in 6 countrywide?

Mr.Micro

asdasd wrote: »

No cuts. Means testing. Absolutely and totally justified. Old is not synonymous with poor.

Means testing its like the old days in Ireland. Begrudging old people the medical card but can guarantee the banks 500 billion. Who is going to give medical cover to these people if they do not have private health care ot let it lapse? No matter they probably voted in this lot and will be dead by the next election.

dresden8

Deleted User wrote: »

If you had a 20% deposit that is...
Also contrary to your opener,the first line of that link states "new lending continues to moderate".

Moderate as in rise by less. Rise

[/QUOTE]Theres not much to be made in the economy from the proportion of it that is switching.[/QUOTE]

Except they usually end up paying stamp duty if trading up.

[/QUOTE]It dried up in the last couple of months.[/QUOTE]

That's the point I made.

Économiste Monétaire

dresden8 wrote: »

Sorry UCD, that wasn't aimed at you. It's Briar's constant refrain that "nobody saw this coming", even though a lot of people plainly did, I was referring to.

No biggie.

On the subject of mortgage lending, I thought I'd throw in the graph of mortgage lending levels up to the end of August of this year, for people to look at.



Data is from CBFSAI monthly stats.

asdasd

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Means testing its like the old says in Ireland. Begrudging old people the medical card but can guarantee the banks 500 million. Who is going to give medical cover to thess people if they do not have private health care ot let it lapse.

Old is not poor. get that into your head. The richest people in Ireland, on average, are the old - in accumulated assets,liquid wealth, and real disposable income.

The idea that the young middle income groups, on negative equity, transfer more money to people with no mortgage outgoings, massive increases in asset prices, and civil servant pensions is absurd.

A 70 year old in Dalkey getting a medical card. Give me a break.

Who is going to give medical cover to thess people if they do not have private health care ot let it lapse.

Oh when a banker get to 70, and still has a few million in the bank,and two or three houses I should subside him? Nonsense,

dresden8

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Is it not incredible that the Government makes cuts to the medical card for over 70 s, puts a levy of 1-2% on all of us, increases the cost of living etc saves a couple of billon euro and makes a couple by the levies.


The other side of the coin is that the banks get, according to the latest figure a 500 billion euro guarantee, all for a measly premium of 500 million euro per year, small change between the banks, which will be fitted up as something else, so in effect may not even dent their gross profits. Now that is a hell of deal for the banks where they will have all their loans and deposits guaranteed. You could not make it up. The banks are probably kicking themselves for not thinking of it before. Meanwhile the aged, the sick, the poor will struggle with the extra cost in living while the banks are falling about laughing, the very ones who helped cause this whole mess. The irony.

FF is betting 400 billion with a payoff of 1 billion for us. The extraordinary irony of this of course is that the banks will raise this 1 billion from us. How the eff is this a good deal?

Take shares you tosser. Throw the boards out. Don't make me pay for a bail-out I'm giving these thieving swines.

asdasd

On the subject of mortgage lending, I thought I'd throw in the graph of mortgage lending levels up to the end of August of this year, for people to look at.

That graph is scary, we are still seeing increases y-o-y in mortgage lending greater than the growth rate. That has still some way to fall.

Mr.Micro

asdasd wrote: »

Old is not poor. get that into your head. The richest people in Ireland, on average, are the old - in accumulated assets,liquid wealth, and real disposable income.

The idea that the young middle income groups, on negative equity, transfer more money to people with no mortgage outgoings, massive increases in asset prices, and civil servant pensions is absurd.

A 70 year old in Dalkey getting a medical card. Give me a break.



Oh when a banker get to 70, and still has a few million in the bank,and two or three houses I should subside him? Nonsense,

Do I detect a tone of bitterness? Negative equity is that what the problem is.
They should overhaul the whole medical card system as there are thousands on it who are well off and got by certain means and not just pick on the aged.

Liam Byrne

dresden8 wrote: »

FF is betting 400 billion with a payoff of 1 billion for us.

Ah sure, maybe they're "banking" on having the same "luck on the horses" :rolleyes: as their former leader ???

asdasd

Do I detect a tone of bitterness? Negative equity is that what the problem is.

I dont have ahouse. So no personal bitterness. However the transfer from the young ( and young(ish)) who are trapped in megative equity to people rolling in asset wealth is immoral. I am tired of the same old terminology - the nonsense about poor, old and sick. Health spending was not cut, social welfare recipients got their increases but the middle income groups got poorer. Workers got poorer.

By the way in terms of asset wealth ( which is the only true definition of wealth) the poorest people in Ireland are the middle income groups who bought recently.

Mr.Micro

asdasd wrote: »

I dont have ahouse. So no personal bitterness. However the transfer from the young ( and young(ish)) who are trapped in megative equity to people rolling in asset wealth is immoral. I am tired of the same old terminology - the nonsense about poor, old and sick. Health spending was not cut, social welfare recipients got their increases but the middle income groups got poorer. Workers got poorer.

By the way in terms of asset wealth ( which is the only true definition of wealth) the poorest people in Ireland are the middle income groups who bought recently.

One could argue that the older people contributed greatly to the country in the past as well. There is plenty else amoral in Ireland and the point I made earlier about bailing out the banks with no pain for them and then punishing the rest of us is wrong.

dresden8

dresden8 wrote: »

Moderate as in rise by less. Rise

Of course it was rising,ie their mortgage book was getting new customers just less and less new customers as less and less qualified or could afford the higher and higher prices or as people waited for the inevitable market forces to kick in.

Theres not much to be made in the economy from the proportion of it that is switching.

Except they usually end up paying stamp duty if trading up.

Yup not much especially from a falling number of new loans/trade ups or switches.
Many of the switches would have been on the same houses.

The extraordinary irony of this of course is that the banks will raise this 1 billion from us. How the eff is this a good deal?

They might and then again they might not.
I thought this whole thing was to be over seen.The regulator is hardly going to allow an increase in charges that blatantly looks like a recoup of the Levy.
We'll see I 'spose.

asdasd

bailing out the banks with no pain for them and then punishing the rest of us is wrong.

On that I agree. We should have nationalised the banks. Not to own them full time, but to get equity to make money later ( the prices now are bargain basement)

And the managerial classes should have been fired. And no payoffs.

Mr.Micro

asdasd wrote: »

On that I agree. We should have nationalised the banks. Not to own them full time, but to get equity to make money later ( the prices now are bargain basement)

And the managerial classes should have been fired. And no payoffs.

I agree.

ninty9er

It actually costs money to buy banks. The guarantee scheme is unlikely to cost anything. And the legislation requires that any "bail out cash" required must be paid back in full by the institution availing of it. So whatever way you look at it. The exchequer is gaining €1bn for free, though it has pushed up the cost of govt. borrowing according to the late night news summary.

About to collect my grandparents from the airport, the granny'll go through the sunroof when she finds out she's not getting a medical card next year:D:D I did warn them to dump income gaining assets.

The 1% and 2% levies couldn't have been placed with standard PAYE as not all income falls into that category. I welcome the levy as it requires everyone with an income (which includes me for a change) to be part of the recovery of the economy. I see no problem in paying €1 for every €100 I earn, realistically it doesn't factor to individuals and if it's worth €1. I'm now a contributing member of society :D

Gandalf23

Gandalf23 wrote: »

I'm not really surprised tho, because it is a ridiculous thing to say. I'd be ashamed of saying something like that too, and I'd be trying to deny it and row back like you seem to be doing :D

Deleted User wrote: »

Three smiles doesn't make what you're saying about my posts stand.

I have no desire to debate complex economic matters with someone who cant count smilies* ...

* there are TWO smilies

Deleted User wrote: »

You are going on as if they haven't when my pointing out to you that thye have is only because I'm saying they did because the raw material [crude] did.

Both baffling and interesting *

* and quite sad that our education system would allow this to happen

Deleted User wrote: »

yada yada yada.

That summarises your arguments just about perfectly!

Couldn't have said it better myself


Kthnksbye

jmayo

asdasd wrote: »

To go back to some earlier points on whether the government could have saved money during the boom. Answer no - not in an environment where the whiny self-regarding middle-class left dominate the media.

What could they do?

They could not control the money supply ( so entering the euro was a mistake), nor control the borders ( so allowing eastern european immigration was a mistake).

but who supported open borders and the Euro? The chattering classes of Dublin 4.

What they should not have done is spend public money as fast as they did, but the "health is underfunded" chatterers would have protested.

Going back to old post...
FFS do you remember the wastes of money by our governments.
Lets have a quick run through.
Luas came in behind schedule over budget with two lines not connected :rolleyes:
Port Tunnel the same and now the NRA are waffling that they will have to spend another 10 million to upgrade the unsuitable non working computer system to make it safe. Oh and their CEO thinks it's a laugh when he goes before the Dail committee to ask what the f*** is going on.

Then there was PPARS, e-voting, new prison site, Cullen's advertising budgets going through roof, the tribunals whose costs were racketed through the roof primarily becuase FF members (Ahern, Lawyor, Burke, Flynn) refused to answer questions etc, etc
And this before we look at how many new managers were created in HSE.

So don't come on here and start blaming the medja and all that sh***.

Oh and before you continue waffling how entering the Euro was a mistake, take a look at what happened to Iceland's currency.
Without us being in the Euro our currency would be worthless becuase it would have been dumped, you could have used it for bogroll.
Being in the Euro has saved our arses, after the bank guarantee was announced.

And without all those foreigners who would have filled the jobs the Irish refused to do becuase they were now beneath them ?

ninty9er wrote: »

It actually costs money to buy banks. The guarantee scheme is unlikely to cost anything. And the legislation requires that any "bail out cash" required must be paid back in full by the institution availing of it. So whatever way you look at it. The exchequer is gaining €1bn for free, though it has pushed up the cost of govt. borrowing according to the late night news summary.

About to collect my grandparents from the airport, the granny'll go through the sunroof when she finds out she's not getting a medical card next year:D:D I did warn them to dump income gaining assets.

The 1% and 2% levies couldn't have been placed with standard PAYE as not all income falls into that category. I welcome the levy as it requires everyone with an income (which includes me for a change) to be part of the recovery of the economy. I see no problem in paying €1 for every €100 I earn, realistically it doesn't factor to individuals and if it's worth €1. I'm now a contributing member of society :D

That is crap about the bailout costing us nothing. You are being inaccurate and misleading.
It is costing us a lot becasue the interest rates the Irish state is paying on borrowing is going up becuase of the guarantees.
So it does cost us.

Sooner or later the Irish government will probably have to actually give capital to banks just like the rest of Europe and the world.

Sorry is this the granny that is in the same hosue for 45 years ? At least she doesn't have negative equity.
I hope your granny gives you a clip around the ear for going round asking people to vote for the party that is now screwing her over

irish_bob

Mr.Micro wrote: »

One could argue that the older people contributed greatly to the country in the past as well. There is plenty else amoral in Ireland and the point I made earlier about bailing out the banks with no pain for them and then punishing the rest of us is wrong.

im sick and tired of the pandering to the sacred cows that are the elderly and this jaded mantra that they served the state well , you would think they were all at the gpo in 1916 , many of them never paid a happeny in tax in thier life and done feck all for the state , its only due to the fact that the grey vote is so crucial at elections that every politician seems to be distancing themselves from this move , pensioners in this state have it great compared to the uk for example , they have free electricity , get a fuel allowance , free travel , pay no tv licence , free phone and not only that recieve over 200 euro a week on the old age state pension let alone whatever contributory pension they have ammassed , those on thier own get a living alone allowance , i know plenty of pensioners who have gorgeous houses and always drive a new car , yet even theese people dont any longer qualify for a medical card under the new changes will still get 400 a yr , the majority of people around 70 are not in poor health anyways , 70 is not old nowadays , the rest who are not well off will still get all thier usual freebies they have always gotten
its not going to be the over 70,s who will ressurect this country so lets put an end to the myth once and for all that pensioners are not well looked after in this country , most of those phing in joe duffy to maoan are annoyed because they either want to bring the money theyve hoarded with them or else its thier children who dont want to see thier inherritence going on tablets for mammy and daddy , its amasing listening to liveline who people when money is on the line get all up in arms with phoney outrgage dressed up as morality , im sorry but the rest of us cant afford to cough up more tax just so the elderly can continue thier charmed existance , time to slay a few sacred cows

Gandalf23

jmayo wrote: »

That is crap about the bailout costing us nothing. You are being inaccurate and misleading.

Shock! Horror! Hold the front pages ... FF mouthpiece on Boards being "inaccurate and misleading"!!!

I lol'ed. I really did :D

dresden8

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought this whole thing was to be over seen.The regulator is hardly going to allow an increase in charges that blatantly looks like a recoup of the Levy.
We'll see I 'spose.

Awww, bless your trusting little heart Briar. Where do you think banks get their money? Us maybe?

If you really believe we aren't going to pay for it I have a bridge you might be interested in.

asdasd

Going back to old post...
FFS do you remember the wastes of money by our governments.
Lets have a quick run through.
Luas came in behind schedule over budget with two lines not connected
Port Tunnel the same and now the NRA are waffling that they will have to spend another 10 million to upgrade the unsuitable non working computer system to make it safe. Oh and their CEO thinks it's a laugh when he goes before the Dail committee to ask what the f*** is going on.

Then there was PPARS, e-voting, new prison site, Cullen's advertising budgets going through roof, the tribunals whose costs were racketed through the roof primarily because FF members (Ahern, Lawyor, Burke, Flynn) refused to answer questions etc, etc
And this before we look at how many new managers were created in HSE.

Most of those capital projects ( which often overrun anywhere) would have saved, had they come in on time about 1% of the HSE budget. The costs of the tribunals lie squarely with the massively overpaid legal class.

My point was simple. There was no way this, or any Irish government could have saved money on the health service by arguing that the growth rate in GDP was possibly unsustainable, or that a country with a young population and one attracting young healthy immigrants was not comparable to aging sclerotic germany. The % of GDP argument is nonsense. We are still hearing about "underfunding" in the HSE. It grew by 300% in less than decade. The real problem with Ireland now is that we have huge problems with day to day spending. This is a problem with relying on taxation from housing to pay day to day civil servant salaries. Had the government put the extra money into the pension reserve ( i.e. earmarked the stamp duty for that) there would be more caterwalling from the same culprits. This is not a defence of FF, no political party can reduce health spending, or not allow it increase proportional to GDP without massive outcries of shame and infamy.

And without all those foreigners who would have filled the jobs the Irish refused to do because they were now beneath them ?

Spoken like a true bourgeois. The unskilled Irish are competing for the same jobs they have always competed for. They are not snobs.They are just not competitive in wages. My point however was the cost to the economy over the long term of increasing the population, and artificially inflating house prices. All apologists for the Irish property market would cite "demographics". irelands native demographic increase is nothing to write home about, much less than it was in the recessionary 1980's. So the demographic argument assumed continued immigration.

On the Euro it may be of some slight benefit now, but since 1999 we have had negative real interest rates. That was a disaster.

Maglight

UCD_Econ wrote: »

No one saw what would come over the last 15-odd months, especially the seismic alteration in the financial sector over the last 3 months. It's an unpredictable event, it cannot be accurately factored into a model when forecasting. It's also impossible to quantify exactly how much of a recession is attributable to an asset bubble, and how much to the 'credit crisis'.

Nonsense. The impending recession was clearly visible to all by the middle of last year. Productivity indicators were already dropping from late 2006. Recruitment slowed dramatically from summer 2007. Anyone with half a brain knew what was coming. It's just that nobody wanted to admit it.

Mr.Micro

jmayo said

Oh and before you continue waffling how entering the Euro was a mistake, take a look at what happened to Iceland's currency.
Without us being in the Euro our currency would be worthless becuase it would have been dumped, you could have used it for bogroll.
Being in the Euro has saved our arses, after the bank guarantee was announced.

I agree, in that we would have been swallowed up and destroyed by currency speculators if we had kept the Punt, particularly now in credit crisis time. Remember the time the UK left the EMF when Lamont was Chancellor of the exchequer and Major PM and currency speculators( such as Soros) nearly brought the UK to its knees. It could happen again if the credit crisis continues. We at least are under the umbrella of the Euro for better or worse, which at least means we have some guarantee.

Économiste Monétaire

Maglight wrote: »

Nonsense. The impending recession was clearly visible to all by the middle of last year. Productivity indicators were already dropping from late 2006. Recruitment slowed dramatically from summer 2007. Anyone with half a brain knew what was coming. It's just that nobody wanted to admit it.

Read what I wrote. A freeze in transactions on the wholesale money markets was not predictable, you did not see that, do not lie. I never mentioned that a recession was, or was not, coming; I said it is impossible to exactly attribute how much of a recession is due to an asset bubble, and how much to the 'credit crisis'. If you feel you can quantify that, feel free to try.

sundula

How did the Horse and Greyhound fund escape with such a small cut ? only 9% I thought this fund was to finish last year. Also how did they escape again with tax free stud fee's ?

NYC353

Hi I've posted a separate thread with question specifically on the medical card issue. If anyone on this thread can help shed some light I'd really appreciate it

Gandalf23

Gandalf23 wrote: »

Kthnksbye

You could have posted that 20 posts ago.
The rest of your post is just silly t.b.h
Mind you so was mine where I asked last night should we go out into the moonlight tonight for an aul snog..and make up..
I blame the head melt of your previous posts.. for making me think there was a future in this relationship