Premiership Player Draft - Discussion Only

LuckyLloyd · 29-11-2008 9:45pm

My team thus far:

Friedel

X

Desailly

X

X

Ginola

Vieira

X

Kewell

Sutton

X

ITT-Pat · 29-11-2008 10:41pm

sutton is a great pick. i was wondering yesterday how long he would last. much better value than yeboah imo

Iago · 29-11-2008 10:52pm

Pick made and pm sent.

Team so far:

Reina

xxx Carragher xxx xxx

Beckham Butt xxx xxx

Cole Heskey

Frisbee · 29-11-2008 11:29pm

Chris Sutton is definitely the best pick in a while.
Top class player

bohsman · 29-11-2008 11:41pm

ITT-Pat wrote: »

sutton is a great pick. i was wondering yesterday how long he would last. much better value than yeboah imo

Meh, I thought about Sutton a couple of picks ago, 50 goals in 131 games for Blackburn, a failure at Chelsea. Nothing special, if Shearer hadnt been his partner hed be long forgotten about.

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 1:24am

bohsman wrote: »

Meh, I thought about Sutton a couple of picks ago, 50 goals in 131 games for Blackburn, a failure at Chelsea. Nothing special, if Shearer hadnt been his partner hed be long forgotten about.

1993 - 1998

69 in 154 appearances.

Necronomicon · 30-11-2008 1:30am

Damn it, back to the drawing board. I had Butt penciled in for my next pick.

Xavi6 · 30-11-2008 1:31am

Sutton, Redknapp and Butt are all good picks.

shoutman · 30-11-2008 1:39am

For some reason I thought Sutton had gone earlier, never really thought he was top class but definately great value at this stage.

my team thus far:

xxxxxxxxx

--xxxxx---McGrath--xxxxxx----Le Saux---
Young----gerard

Barnes----xxxxxx

drogba

Bubs101 · 30-11-2008 12:26pm

ITT-Pat wrote: »

sutton is a great pick. i was wondering yesterday how long he would last. much better value than yeboah imo

Yeboah averaged a goal every two games and didn't have **** seasons like Sutton. Yeboah is a much better pick

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 1:46pm

Bubs101 wrote: »

Yeboah averaged a goal every two games and didn't have **** seasons like Sutton. Yeboah is a much better pick

- Yeboah played two seasons. He was great during that timespan. One goal every 1.9 games;
- My boy has a peak that stretches for five consecutive seasons during which he scored a goal every 2.2 games;

So even, if Yeboah was a better pick, to say he's "much better" equates to you talking through your hole.

In anycase, Yeboah is not the better pick. Sutton's peak period stands up there with the very best strikers ever to play in the premiership. And, during that long stretch, he offered an awful lot more in terms of overall contribution to his team's performance than Yeboah did. Yeboah was explosive and scored goals - but when he didn't score his contribution didn't amount to a whole lot. Whereas Sutton would work tirelessly to provide an outlet and option for his teammates - and was a big factor at defending and attacking setpieces.

Now, people may say: "but you can't just ignore the rest of his time in the premiership". Well, what am I leaving outside of his five year peak stretch?

- His first season in the premiership when he was 19 and scored 8 goals;
- His last season at Blackburn when he only managed 17 games due to injury;
- His disastrous Chelsea season when he scored 1 in 28;
- From 27 - 33 he played for Celtic;
- And between the ages of 33 and 34 he managed a final 18 games and two goals over two seasons - his body wracked by injuries and general physical decline;

That is 101 games total. And for 38 of them as a youngster he performed well. So, overall, he has a run of 63 games amongst four different clubs (with a six year gap before the last 18) in which he was poor. That's less than a quarter of his premiership career. That is the reason why I am getting him in the sixth round with the 127th overall pick. Because, if 100% of his career was at the production rate of the first 75% of it - he would be a first rounder.

Now, I understand that non statisticians and, well, civilians in general are unfamiliar with the concepts of expectation and variance. But, in short, doing it over 154 consecutive games is no fluke. And I know he was in good teams and surrounded by good players - but the talent he will play with in my team will be of a substantially better caliber than the Norwich and Blackburn sides of the mid nineties. As such, I feel it is very reasonable for me to expect that I get a player who is in great condition physically and who will produce goals at a rate of one every 2 - 2.5 goals a game. And I can assume that I am getting a guy who will lead my line well, and compete for the full ninety minutes.

So Bubs, even if he didn't do it at Chelsea and you therefore have a disliking for him as a Chelsea fan - that don't mean a whole lot when put into context with his entire Premiership career. I got the best striker remaining on the board. And it really isn't close.

titan18 · 30-11-2008 3:01pm

Both of them are good picks who could have gone earlier. Sutton needs a good forward alongside him, for him to do anything.

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 4:46pm

A further thing to look at:

- Trippie took Phillips at 94;
- who in 226 premiership appearances, scored 87 goals;
- or one goal every 2.6 games;

Even if I take away his worst two seasons, I still get the same goals per game average as Sutton during his peak: 171 / 77 / 2.2.

My point?

I'm getting similar production at the striker position despite picking my guy up 33 spots later. In a draft, the objective should be to get good relative value with every pick. If you consistently manage that, your end team will be pretty good.

Bubs101 · 30-11-2008 4:49pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

A further thing to look at:

- Trippie took Phillips at 94;
- who in 226 premiership appearances, scored 87 goals;
- or one goal every 2.6 games;

Even if I take away his worst two seasons, I still get the same goals per game average as Sutton during his peak: 171 / 77 / 2.2.

My point?

I'm getting similar production at the striker position despite picking my guy up 33 spots later. In a draft, the objective should be to get good relative value with every pick. If you consistently manage that, your end team will be pretty good.

You could equally pick a keeper now, show his stats compared with Given's and make a case that you were getting a first round pick now. Phillips was picked too early on the strength of 1 season. Personally, I feel Yeboah is still a better pick regardless of the arguments you've presented. if everybody felt the exact same about all the picks this would be boring. I don't think Sutton is a bad pick, just that Yeboah is better and I still think there are better strikers than Sutton

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 4:54pm

Bubs101 wrote: »

You could equally pick a keeper now, show his stats compared with Given's and make a case that you were getting a first round pick now. Phillips was picked too early on the strength of 1 season. Personally, I feel Yeboah is still a better pick regardless of the arguments you've presented. if everybody felt the exact same about all the picks this would be boring. I don't think Sutton is a bad pick, just that Yeboah is better and I still think there are better strikers than Sutton

Em, but the problem is you saying that means incredibly little by itself. I've laid out a solid statistical case for my pick being excellent relative value at this stage - and being a better selection than Yeboah. Disprove my arguments or point out the flaw in my logic if you can and, fair enough, I'll buy your original statement. But just saying something in isolation when there are solid arguments presented against it is, well, irrelevant.:)

eZe^ · 30-11-2008 4:57pm

Merked, innit.......

Frisbee · 30-11-2008 4:58pm

eZe^ wrote: »

Merked, innit.......

B-b-b-b-brrapp!

Bubs101 · 30-11-2008 5:13pm

I don't see how you can leave out his Chelsea season or his 0 and 3 goal seasons at Blackburn. That was one of his biggest problems. He couldn't be counted on to perform every season. We thought we were getting good value and we got 1 goal. He found it very difficult to string two decent seasons together. He went from top scorer to 3 goals and yes, I know he was injured but he still got 17 games in and it's a massive drop

Having said that, I forgot Sutton's time with Celtic didn't count so I take back the Yeboah was a much better pick though if I had the choice I'd take Yeboah personally

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 5:20pm

Bubs101 wrote: »

(1)I don't see how you can leave out his Chelsea season or his 0 and 3 goal seasons at Blackburn. That was one of his biggest problems. He couldn't be counted on to perform every season. We thought we were getting good value and we got 1 goal. (2)He found it very difficult to string two decent seasons together. He went from top scorer to 3 goals and yes, I know he was injured but he still got 17 games in and it's a massive drop

Having said that, I forgot Sutton's time with Celtic didn't count so I take back the Yeboah was a much better pick though if I had the choice I'd take Yeboah personally

1) My point is that they are the outlier in his career, a stretch of 45 consecutive games where he was rubbish that stand in stark in contrast to the vast majority of his time in the premiership (75%) in which he banged them in with regularity.

2) I've already shown that he strung five excellent seasons together.

eirebhoy · 30-11-2008 5:26pm

bohsman wrote: »

Meh, I thought about Sutton a couple of picks ago, 50 goals in 131 games for Blackburn, a failure at Chelsea. Nothing special, if Shearer hadnt been his partner hed be long forgotten about.

He's much more than a goalscorer though.

Mr.Nice Guy · 30-11-2008 8:10pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

In anycase, Yeboah is not the better pick. Sutton's peak period stands up there with the very best strikers ever to play in the premiership. And, during that long stretch, he offered an awful lot more in terms of overall contribution to his team's performance than Yeboah did. Yeboah was explosive and scored goals - but when he didn't score his contribution didn't amount to a whole lot. Whereas Sutton would work tirelessly to provide an outlet and option for his teammates - and was a big factor at defending and attacking setpieces.

Now, people may say: "but you can't just ignore the rest of his time in the premiership". Well, what am I leaving outside of his five year peak stretch?

OK I'm confused now. I raised this 'peak period' issue earlier in the draft and was told that a player's peak didn't come into and that we were to judge players based on their Premiership careers overall, and not their peak...

LuckyLloyd wrote:

You are taking a player's entire impact on the premiership. As such, if a guy has one world class season and four average or worse seasons then I would say he is no more than a slightly above average player for the purposes of this process.

So if we take a player's entire impact on the Premiership I don't see how it can be argued that Sutton is a better pick when he suffered a dip in form that had people labelling him a flop whereas I'm not aware of Yeboah experiencing anything like this.

If we were to judge peak periods than I'd say Sutton is the better option for his Blackburn contribution alone, but if we judge overall Premiership contributions then I'd say it's Yeboah as there's no significant decline period.

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 8:24pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

OK I'm confused now. I raised this 'peak period' issue earlier in the draft and was told that a player's peak didn't come into and that we were to judge players based on their Premiership careers overall, and not their peak...

So if we take a player's entire impact on the Premiership I don't see how it can be argued that Sutton is a better pick when he suffered a dip in form that had people labelling him a flop whereas I'm not aware of Yeboah experiencing anything like this.

If we were to judge peak periods than I'd say Sutton is the better option for his Blackburn contribution alone, but if we judge overall Premiership contributions then I'd say it's Yeboah as there's no significant decline period.

Come on man, keep up. His "peak period" equals 75% of his premiership career. And essentially spans six seasons.

There is a clear difference between this and a guy who is good for 20 - 40% of his premiership career. Or a guy who has a sample size of less than 76 games.

You dig?

EDIT: Or to put it in the simplest terms, a 154 game stretch of goodness > a 66 game stretch of goodness in terms of impact on the premiership. And, as such, Sutton > Yeboah.

Mr.Nice Guy · 30-11-2008 8:29pm

I guess I'm just a bit confused about how we determine overall impact relative to the amount of games played but I think I dig it. :cool:

titan18 · 30-11-2008 8:31pm

Surely someone else is up by now

ITT-Pat · 30-11-2008 8:32pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

OK I'm confused now. I raised this 'peak period' issue earlier in the draft and was told that a player's peak didn't come into and that we were to judge players based on their Premiership careers overall, and not their peak...

obviosuly it isnt fair to judge someone on their best season as that would make the draft too easy, but it would be equally unfair to judge a player over his whole say 10 year career, as that would make it too hard.

sutton had 5 consistently excellent seasons in the PL, whereas yeboah had 2 excellent seasons before fecking off to Germany to have an irrelevant finish his career.

in short i think players should judged over the best period of their careers and by period, i dont mean 1/2 seasons

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 8:34pm

titan18 wrote: »

Surely someone else is up by now

Yeah, you're right. I'll pm the next man up. Bear in mind though that there will be an inevitable amount of slowdown on a Sunday / weekends. People have lives away from the internet. We had a good week, and I'm sure the pace will pick up again from tomorrow on. Patience, we are nearly half way there!!

Frisbee · 30-11-2008 8:35pm

Yeah Melion should have gone by now so Bubs101 is up

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 8:41pm

Frisbee wrote: »

Yeah Melion should have gone by now so Bubs101 is up

I've pm'd the two lads. Melion is now passed over, and we continue in order from Bubs on. Melion may post a pick now as soon as he gets a chance.

titan18 · 30-11-2008 8:41pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yeah, you're right. I'll pm the next man up. Bear in mind though that there will be an inevitable amount of slowdown on a Sunday / weekends. People have lives away from the internet. We had a good week, and I'm sure the pace will pick up again from tomorrow on. Patience, we are nearly half way there!!

Yeah, im just getting a bit impatient. I saw how long u've been doing the nfl one, and I dont want it to last that long

RasTa · 30-11-2008 8:45pm

It should be a 24 hour rule on the weekends.

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 8:52pm

titan18 wrote: »

Yeah, im just getting a bit impatient. I saw how long u've been doing the nfl one, and I dont want it to last that long

Well, it's been going for 5 weeks now, and we are four picks short of half way. By comparison, the NFL draft I'm doing on 2 + 2 has been going for three weeks longer - and there are more picks remaining to be made in that than there are here. And that is despite the fact that there are some diehards involved over there who have demonstrated a propensity to rip a man from limb to limb if he misses his 24 hr window!!

At this point, I'm confident that we will finish this thing, and probably have it all wrapped up by the end of January. The discussion and debate that is sparked should be the fun part meaning that if it takes a while it isn't exactly the end of the world.

Anyway, we hit a rough patch but things have been better recently. Hopefully we can keep the momentum up over the next few weeks.

LuckyLloyd · 30-11-2008 9:05pm

I think is a good team specific pick there. Was looking a bit lightweight with Cole, Ronaldo and Mr. so good they named him twice in there. Adding a hatchet man to your tricksters is a good move.

Wise is a better footballer than people like to give him credit for of course. You don't survive at the top level for that long if you can't kick a bit of snow of a rope. But his strengths were definitely things like determination, bravery, workrate and the will to stick it up the ***** of more vaunted opposition.

I think the other player like him would be a good fit for some teams in this aswell. At a later round of course.

Wreck · 30-11-2008 9:36pm

Wise was not a defensive midfielder, fair enough he would get stuck in when it mattered but he did not sit in front of the back four, was not a holding player, and was very much involved in attacking moves. He is a good pick at this stage imo, but not in the position you have picked him.

RasTa · 01-12-2008 4:05pm

I was thinking about Crouch for this round as he might be good with Owen but thought I'd get him in the next round or 2.

Frisbee · 01-12-2008 4:06pm

RasTa wrote: »

I thought about Crouch for this round as he might be good with Owen but thought I'd get him in the next round or 2.

There's a player still available who will do the same job for you as Crouch but so much better. I can't believe someone going for this kind of tactic would pick Crouch ahead of him...

Xavi6 · 01-12-2008 4:07pm

Frisbee wrote: »

There's a player still available who will do the same job for you as Crouch but so much better. I can't believe someone going for this kind of tactic would pick Crouch ahead of him...

Ginger, ex-Norwich and Spurs?

RasTa · 01-12-2008 4:09pm

Frisbee wrote: »

There's a player still available who will do the same job for you as Crouch but so much better. I can't believe someone going for this kind of tactic would pick Crouch ahead of him...

Yeah I know who you mean, there are maybe 3 better then Crouch for this tactic which is why I decided to wait.

Eirebear · 01-12-2008 4:12pm

Its all about opinions i suppose.

Crouch IMO comes in for a lot unfair criticism from certain areas of football, he is another player who plays the game with real enthusiasm and passion.

Frisbee · 01-12-2008 4:12pm

Xavi6 wrote: »

Ginger, ex-Norwich and Spurs?

Not who I was thinking of, but yeah that would be a good shout aswell, prob better than who I was thinking.. :pac:

eagle eye · 01-12-2008 4:15pm

I just seen the last few picks. I think Chris Sutton is a bad pick. He had a good spell at Norwich and then a great time at Blackburn but that was with Shearer. As soon as Shearer left he was shown up for what he really was, he then went on to fail miserably at Chelsea.

As a Blackburn fan, I have fond memories of Chris Sutton and I like the guy. In fairness to him he revived his career at Celtic, but again he played alongside Henrik Larrson. A good partner for a world class striker but not for an average one.

Bubs101 · 01-12-2008 4:19pm

I think Crouch is a good pick but like Heskey, there is someone left who i think would do a better job. However, think Crouch and Wright is a good partnership

Also, regarding Wise, how is he not a DM. He has all the attributes for one and always stayed back?

Necronomicon · 01-12-2008 4:24pm

Apologies in advance guys, I might have to take a couple of hours out of the allotted 12. Up the walls and trying to decide between 2 players

I'll have it done before 6 hopefully.

ditpoker · 01-12-2008 4:43pm

clearly how we measure a players performance in this thing is:

1/ if the player has performed well in patches, and poorly in other patches we focus on the good times... if selected by Lloyd.
2/ if the player has performed well in patches, and poorly on other patches we focus on the bad times... if not selected by Lloyd.

i thought this was pretty clear???

LuckyLloyd · 01-12-2008 5:09pm

eagle eye wrote: »

I just seen the last few picks. I think Chris Sutton is a bad pick. He had a good spell at Norwich and then a great time at Blackburn but that was with Shearer. As soon as Shearer left he was shown up for what he really was, he then went on to fail miserably at Chelsea.

As a Blackburn fan, I have fond memories of Chris Sutton and I like the guy. In fairness to him he revived his career at Celtic, but again he played alongside Henrik Larrson. A good partner for a world class striker but not for an average one.

It was six straight years, and 75% of his premiership career.

The fact that he was effective in European competition with Celtic (while hardly playing alongside all - world players from 1 to 11) again goes to indicate that the 63 game poor spell was little more than an aberration.

Again, I have more than argued idle and misinformed statements into the ground at this stage.

ditpoker wrote: »

clearly how we measure a players performance in this thing is:

1/ if the player has performed well in patches, and poorly in other patches we focus on the good times... if selected by Lloyd.
2/ if the player has performed well in patches, and poorly on other patches we focus on the bad times... if not selected by Lloyd.

i thought this was pretty clear???

Jeff, a consistent stretch that amounts to 75% of someone's career is not a 'patch'.

Or to put it in terms you might understand. If you looked at Sutton's career as a whole, a much greater portion of it involves good play and production; than if we were to look at a typical 90 minutes from you upfront - where it mostly involves you standing and grimacing about some newly acquired injury. In the former example, the good outweighs the bad. Whereas in the latter example, well...

eagle eye · 01-12-2008 5:47pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It was six straight years, and 75% of his premiership career.

The fact that he was effective in European competition with Celtic (while hardly playing alongside all - world players from 1 to 11) again goes to indicate that the 63 game poor spell was little more than an aberration.

While you quote me, you still don't discuss the presence of Shearer which was the reason he played so well. He got loads of room on many occasions due to the fact that Shearer was beside him. He also benefited from many assists from said Shearer.
I also stated that he played alongside Henrik Larrson at Celtic. Again the mere presence of Larrson provided a lot of space for Sutton.

Basically for most of his career he benefited greatly from the presence of a World class striker as his partner.

I could say more on this but it would not be fair at this stage as I would have to mention other players who have not been picked yet.

ditpoker · 01-12-2008 6:04pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It was six straight years, and 75% of his premiership career.

The fact that he was effective in European competition with Celtic (while hardly playing alongside all - world players from 1 to 11) again goes to indicate that the 63 game poor spell was little more than an aberration.

Again, I have more than argued idle and misinformed statements into the ground at this stage.

Jeff, a consistent stretch that amounts to 75% of someone's career is not a 'patch'.

Or to put it in terms you might understand. If you looked at Sutton's career as a whole, a much greater portion of it involves good play and production; than if we were to look at a typical 90 minutes from you upfront - where it mostly involves you standing and grimacing about some newly acquired injury. In the former example, the good outweighs the bad. Whereas in the latter example, well...

well played sir, well played.

Sure sutton was going to be my next pick! i rated him! great pick if you're picking him as your support striker, if you're picking him for goals its an average pick at best, there are heaps of better goalscorers left

LuckyLloyd · 01-12-2008 6:11pm

eagle eye wrote: »

While you quote me, you still don't discuss the presence of Shearer which was the reason he played so well. He got loads of room on many occasions due to the fact that Shearer was beside him. He also benefited from many assists from said Shearer.
I also stated that he played alongside Henrik Larrson at Celtic. Again the mere presence of Larrson provided a lot of space for Sutton.

Basically for most of his career he benefited greatly from the presence of a World class striker as his partner.

I could say more on this but it would not be fair at this stage as I would have to mention other players who have not been picked yet.

Your point is rubbish basically.

Seasons that Chris Sutton played in the premiership without Alan Shearer alongside him (who moved to Newcastle in 1996):

1993 - 94, Norwich - 25 goals;
1996 - 97, Blackburn - 11 goals in 25 games;
1997 - 98, Blackburn - 18 goals in 35 games;

2004 - 05, Celtic (Larsson left in 04) - 12 goals in 27 games;

So yeah, you are spouting a myth that has little basis in fact. Infact, over the six years premiership stretch that amounts to 75% of his premiership career, only 15 of the 77 goals Chris Sutton scored in that period came while playing alongside Shearer.

Nothing life tilts me as much as when people make declarative statements about football on the basis of absolutely zero research - but instead because it's the prevailing myth, something they heard once before. :mad:

LuckyLloyd · 01-12-2008 6:12pm

ditpoker wrote: »

there are heaps of better goalscorers left

lies

eagle eye · 01-12-2008 6:33pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Your point is rubbish basically.

Seasons that Chris Sutton played in the premiership without Alan Shearer alongside him (who moved to Newcastle in 1996):

1993 - 94, Norwich - 25 goals;
1996 - 97, Blackburn - 11 goals in 25 games;
1997 - 98, Blackburn - 18 goals in 35 games;

2004 - 05, Celtic (Larsson left in 04) - 12 goals in 27 games;

So yeah, you are spouting a myth that has little basis in fact. Infact, over the six years premiership stretch that amounts to 75% of his premiership career, only 15 of the 77 goals Chris Sutton scored in that period came while playing alongside Shearer.

Nothing life tilts me as much as when people make declarative statements about football on the basis of absolutely zero research - but instead because it's the prevailing myth, something they heard once before. :mad:

You make some good points, but don't even attempt to assign what you have in bold print to my opinions.
We can discuss this further when the draft concludes but for now lets just leave it at that.
Prevailing myths are something I don't care for, my opinions are those of someone who watched and enjoyed Chris Sutton during his time at Blackburn Rovers. As I said earlier, I like the guy, he was full of guts and tried hard all the time.

Again lets just leave it for now and take it up again when the draft is over.

LuckyLloyd · 01-12-2008 6:39pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You make some good points, but don't even attempt to assign what you have in bold print to my opinions.
We can discuss this further when the draft concludes but for now lets just leave it at that.
Prevailing myths are something I don't care for, my opinions are those of someone who watched and enjoyed Chris Sutton during his time at Blackburn Rovers. As I said earlier, I like the guy, he was full of guts and tried hard all the time.

Again lets just leave it for now and take it up again when the draft is over.

You said:

the presence of Shearer which was the reason he played so well

He had a good spell at Norwich and then a great time at Blackburn but that was with Shearer

When the majority of his Blackburn (and premiership goals) came when Shearer wasn't at the club or playing alongside him. So don't give me any "I'm a Blackburn fan" or "let's discuss this later" guff. This is the discussion thread. It's here to debate in detail the merits of the players who are picked.

You just spouted off some fundamentally incorrect mythology and got called out on it. Until you demonstrate otherwise, the bold applies directly to you.

Premiership Player Draft - Discussion Only

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