Liverpool Vs Portsmouth

Gelio

Really looking forward to a posative attacking game from Liverpool despite missing one maybe two strikers *Fingers crossed*

LuckyLloyd

Boggles wrote: »

Crouch 11-1 to be first scorer, 5-1 anytime scorer and 10-1 to get the last goal. Prob value in anytime scorer.

Yeah, assuming he has an expectation to score 4 or more goals a season away from home in the league that's a decent bet. Rare to find any value in soccer betting.

careca

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Rare to find any value in soccer betting.

You're not wrong there. Just checked out the scorecast price on Robbie. To score at any time and Pool to win - 9/5. Shocking value. I was expecting about 4/1 - naive I know.

oobydooby

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yeah, assuming he has an expectation to score 4 or more goals a season away from home in the league that's a decent bet. Rare to find any value in soccer betting.

Your betting contributions usually make interesting reading.

However, do you think a weighting would be involved here. If Crouch is expected to score >4 away goals (which seems reasonable), is it not more likely he'd get them against weaker teams than defensively strong teams?

It's not a bad bet. Off my sleeve I'd say Pompey have a 30% chance of scoring at all, and between Defoe, others and o.g.s I'd be looking for 8-1 anytime before I'd punt seriously on it.

Having said that, betting against Liverpool is probably a good long-term strategy (value-wise) but I'd never bring myself to doing it.

ibh

I hate to be the gloomy one on here, but i'm not expecting an easy win and doubt we'll get a 3 or 4 nil win.
Pompey have a few potential match winners in their team and they could cause some problems. Defoe and Crouch present a serious goal threat although admittedly they are weakened by the loss of Campbell and Johnson.

I had the same view before the Stoke game. Hopefully it's not a repeat of that.

MementoMori

So the question of rotation could well come up given we play Portsmouth tonight, Spurs Saturday, Athletico Tuesday with West Brom the following Saturday. I’d imagine things would have been a lot easier if we had got the win against Athletico. I can see a lot of potential for chopping and changing regarding the team selection over the next few matches.

Reina
Arbeloa Carra Agger Dossena
Pennant Gerrard Masch Riera
Kuyt Babel


Reina & Carra have played every minute of every league game with Kuyt, Alonso, and Arbeloa the next big three in terms of playing time (Kuyt and Arbeloa have had about 20mins rest with Alonso having 50) After that there is a gap of about 100 mins to Gerrard and Keane.

I cant really see Reina being rested
I also would be massively surprised if the Carra & Agger relationship was broken up - there could well be a possibility of Sami coming on to add his aerial power later on but I cant see him starting.
Arbeloa - As far as I can make out his one match ban for five yellows will come against West Brom- I would expect him to be played and have his rest then. I would presume it is Darby who will most likely replace him as he was named in the subs for the Athletico game. Can’t see Carra being shifted out to right-back. Dunno though.
Dossena v Aurelio - I just have a feeling Doss will get the nod ahead of Aurelio. Don’t really know why
Alonso - Depending on what other selection decisions are made I could see Alonso being rested from the start even though he’s in great form at the moment. Mainly because I think he could well be better used in the Spurs game (given their midfield) and in the Athletico game, plus the fact that he has played so much. The question is who comes in Lucas or Masch? With Diarra playing for Portsmouth I would expect Masch to start
Gerrard - Would expect him to start but wouldn’t be surprised if he was subbed if the game was going well after 60+ mins
Kuyt - One of the other big candidates who could be rested - might be a risk if both Keane and Torres are out though. Would expect him to start but would also hope he would be subbed. I wouldnt be surprised to see him playing alongside Babel up front with Pennant playing on the right.
Babel - I have a strong feeling he will start in a striker role as opposed to as a winger given Rafa’s recent comments
Riera - Would be surprised if he didn’t start.

I could well see us starting offensively looking for early goals as I would imagine Portsmouth will try to keep it tight for as long as possible with the hope that Defoe/Crouch manage to snatch something. A draw away to Liverpool would be a massive result for Adams so I can see them being pretty cagey. Hopefully after an early goal (or three) we can sit back and play more defensively and rest some of our big players. 3-0

mike65

No point in getting too complicated about this - any sort of win (barring one with injuries) will do.

Mike

LuckyLloyd

oobydooby wrote: »

Your betting contributions usually make interesting reading.

However, do you think a weighting would be involved here. If Crouch is expected to score >4 away goals (which seems reasonable), is it not more likely he'd get them against weaker teams than defensively strong teams?

It's not a bad bet. Off my sleeve I'd say Pompey have a 30% chance of scoring at all, and between Defoe, others and o.g.s I'd be looking for 8-1 anytime before I'd punt seriously on it.

Having said that, betting against Liverpool is probably a good long-term strategy (value-wise) but I'd never bring myself to doing it.

Of course, a weighting should be applied - and is probably why the sports trader has drifted the price out to 5 - 1. However, thus far this season Liverpool have conceded 6 goals in seven competitive matches at home. And that is despite a relatively weak schedule (apart from the Utd game). It is also important to note that Portsmouth probably have an overall offensive expectation for an entire season that is above the mean of the teams that Liverpool have faced so far this year.

As such, I would say that on balance it is reasonable to say that Portsmouth have an expectation to score a goal tonight. Once they are expected to score, Crouch's overall season expectation then becomes relevant. Given that he is starting this year and given that he has a decent supporting cast supplying him (better than the league average) I'd set his over / under for league goals before the end of the year at 15 - meaning his away from home over / under would probably be five.

So, I think 5 / 1 for an anytime score in this game for him is value - even if it is thin enough. I think this is a rare occasion where the sportstrader has made a mistake because they have looked at last seasons stats when:

- Liverpool were conceding less goals on average;
- Crouch's numbers were worse because he wasn't starting every game;

and have set it at 5 / 1 when it probably should be 4 / 1.

I know some of you will think all of the above represents far too much effort and it doesn't matter that much whether something is 5 / 1 or 4 / 1. But, if you are betting sports in the hope of making a few quid stuff like this is where your edge will lie.

~Rebel~

crouch is also on a bit of form, 3 goals in his last 4 in the league.

LuckyLloyd

careca wrote: »

You're not wrong there. Just checked out the scorecast price on Robbie. To score at any time and Pool to win - 9/5. Shocking value. I was expecting about 4/1 - naive I know.

Don't really know what's funnier - that price or the fact people will put money on it!!

Karmafaerie

Peter Crouch: I’d love to see Liverpool win the league
Oct 29 2008 by Tony Barrett, Liverpool Echo

PETER CROUCH revealed he would love Liverpool to win the league – even though he could dent their title ambitions at Anfield.

Crouch will be doing everything he can to try and give new Pompey boss Tony Adams a victory in his first game in charge tonight, but he still hopes Liverpool go on to lift the league title for the first time in 19 years.

“Obviously, I’m a Portsmouth player now and we will be coming to Anfield to try and get a result, said Crouch. “But I know what a fantastic club Liverpool is and I still feel privileged to have played for them.

“I have a lot of great memories of the place and the fans were always great with me. The fans deserve success and I’d love it if Liverpool could win the league for them because they have waited so long for it to happen.”

Good lad.

PHB

Babel being a striker more means Riera must have (deservedly) impressed Rafa.

I'm not sure what's going to happen tonight. Lots of things going on. However ultimately, Portsmouth defence has been ****e this season against anyone with pace, so I'd expect Babel to play. Playing Keane or Kuyt would suit Portsmouth down to the ground I think. If theres pace up front, Portsmouth crumble.

Interesting to see Crouch against Liverpool though.

I would say a big match tonight for Liverpool, but when you're on top of the league, everynight is a big match

DeadSkin

PHB wrote: »

Interesting to see Crouch against Liverpool though.

I would say a big match tonight for Liverpool, but when you're on top of the league, everynight is a big match

Yeah, looking forward to see Crouch back at Anfield[once I can find a stream]. I was disappointed when he left, but he had his reasons.

Ah but, every match at Anfield is a big match

Dont be at yourself

Anyone got a stream for the game? Ideally something from justin.tv or ustream etc.

I'm on my mac and don't want to boost into Windows for Sopcast or anything!

DeadSkin

The Liverpool team in full: Reina, Arbeloa, Aurelio, Carragher, Hyypia, Lucas, Alonso, Gerrard, Kuyt, Babel, Pennant. Subs: Cavalieri, Agger, Dossena, Mascherano, Keane, Benayoun, Riera.

mike65

Rotation!

Apparently this is the stream

http://www.ustream.tv/videoplayerpopup/channel/335314

Mike

Funkyzeit

DeadSkin wrote: »

The Liverpool team in full: Reina, Arbeloa, Aurelio, Carragher, Hyypia, Lucas, Alonso, Gerrard, Kuyt, Babel, Pennant. Subs: Cavalieri, Agger, Dossena, Mascherano, Keane, Benayoun, Riera.

Sami in !

Dont be at yourself

Found this when looking for a stream: http://lfc-live.blogspot.com/

What a XI... can anybody put that into a formation?

---

Reina
Arb-Carra-Hyypia-Aurelio
----Lucas-Alonso-
Pennant-Gerrard-Babel

---

Kuyt

Or will it be a 4-4-2 with Gerrard/Pennant on the left?

dardoz

its on here, really good quality too.

http://www.iraqgoals.com/en/ch4.html

5starpool

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

Found this when looking for a stream: http://lfc-live.blogspot.com/

What a XI... can anybody put that into a formation?

---

Reina
Arb-Carra-Hyypia-Aurelio
----Lucas-Alonso-
Pennant-Gerrard-Babel

---

Kuyt

Or will it be a 4-4-2 with Gerrard/Pennant on the left?

Seems like a team that is asking for trouble if we don't win, and it is certainly possible that we might struggle tbh, but it should be faily easy to alter the formation anyhow.

Dont be at yourself

Are you sure about that link, dardoz? It seems to be showing Sky Sports News at the moment...

sweetie

Can understand sami getting his game but Lucas instead of the monster? Hope takes his chance to impress. Has he started a league match yet?

zAbbo

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

Are you sure about that link, dardoz? It seems to be showing Sky Sports News at the moment...

That link is wrong, it's channel 5 that should be showing it - http://www.iraqgoals.com/en/ch5.html

No joy yet though

dardoz

oops yeh, its on channel 5. My mistake!

They are showing a stream of Setanta Sports US

Unfortunately, channel 5 is pausing a lot. Channel 4 was perfect. I think I'll be looking for another source

zAbbo

Ch5 looks to be chelsea game

PHB

If Liverpool drop points tonight, I can predit for you what every single news paper article will be about. Can you bet on what ****e the media are going to talk about?

RasTa

They won't drop points, although I do have them in my accu which usually brings me luck.

Dont be at yourself

It's not the papers I'm worried about, it's all the Man Utd and Chelsea fans!

sweetie

PHB wrote: »

If Liverpool drop points tonight, I can predit for you what every single news paper article will be about. Can you bet on what ****e the media are going to talk about?

rotation

kingshankly

no defoe thats a strange one time for lucas to step up to the plate
come on red men in rafa we trust

5starpool

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

It's not the papers I'm worried about, it's all the Man Utd and Chelsea fans!

It's not them I'm worried about, it's the bloody points we'd drop.

sweetie

any streams i've tried are a bit choppy, any others?

Dirk Gently

anyone got a working stream?

machiavellianme

Anyone get a working stream? The ustream one is patchy at best and the iraqigoals one is just a relay of the ustream feed.

Dub13

This game is only on 4 stations across the globe. Most stations are tied into the north London derby.But I will have a dig.

mike65

Jebus! Liverpool are peppering David James. A goal will come.

Mike

Mr Magnolia

Best I've found so far:

http://www.iraqgoals.com/en/ch5.html

Dont be at yourself

Jaysus, Dirk Diggler just went close.

This ustream stream is unwatchable though, I'm gonna boot into Windows and poke around on Sopcast for a bit.

emc2

http://lfc-live.blogspot.com/

this is working well for me....

Mr Magnolia

emc2 wrote: »

http://lfc-live.blogspot.com/

this is working well for me....

won't load for me?

machiavellianme

Penalty surely? was it not inside the box?

manster

emc2 wrote: »

http://lfc-live.blogspot.com/

this is working well for me....

Damn this link isn't working for me.

mike65

Babel and Pennant are getting good quick ball down the flanks.

Mike

sweetie

soccer 2 on tvu player channel 21501

pretty good

machiavellianme

mike65 wrote: »

Babel and Pennant are getting good quick ball down the flanks.

Mike

Pity Riera isnt on to take advantage and knock it on for Babel.

Irishpimpdude

sweetie wrote: »

soccer 2 on tvu player channel 21501

pretty good

Thx first one i found that worked :-)

tallaghtoutlaws

http://www.ustream.tv/videoplayerpopup/channel/335314

Put this directly into a browser working excellent for me.

emc2

portsmouth just had a very good chance there. We need to keep up the tempo.

mike65

Carra with a 20 yard snap shot, saved

Mike

Mr Magnolia

sweetie wrote: »

soccer 2 on tvu player channel 21501

pretty good

Thanks, doesn't want to 'start' the channel for me though.