Heavy snow: Early Tomorrow across much of the North and East.

ninebeanrows

Just started this thread as i feel that the Met.ie forecast is totally inadequate( for tomorrow) as it doesn't even mention sleet or snow at all:

Tomorrow

Cloudy tomorrow morning as rain spreads eastwards across the country. The rain will gradually clear to showers during tomorrow afternoon. Not quite as cold tomorrow with highest temperatures of 6 to 10C.

While the situation is quite marginal there is a very good chance of 3-4 hours of heavy snow tomorrow across middle and north leinster and much of eastern and central ulster.

The snow will be temporary and should have cleared by evening as somewhat less cold weather moves in from the atlantic.

Looking at tomorrow:

A slack area of low pressure will move south from Iceland developing quite rapidly as it does so, a band of intensifying precip will reach the west coast by early AM and spread east during the morning.

Heavy snow will start to fall in Ulster and the midlands by around 10am and will spread east, some accumalations of upto 5cm's are possible, obviously the higher ground the greater the risk.

The snow should turn sleety and turn to rain towards the evening as it clears.

However there is a risk of an exceptional October snowfall tomorrow for many in the midlands, north and east.

Here's how the MetOffice sum up tomorrows marginal snowfall for tomorrow. Going to be touch and go but snow will fall and could cause travel disruption.

Midday tomorrow courtesy of BBC weather.

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

the Met.ie forecast is totally inadequate:

A bit harsh there Weathercheck. But at least we have you to set us straight.

ninebeanrows

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A bit harsh there Weathercheck. But at least we have you to set us straight.

:pac: Well what i meant was the forecast for tomorrow was inadequate as it doesnt even mention sleet or mountain snow;)

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

:pac: Well what i meant was the forecast for tomorrow was inadequate as it doesnt even mention sleet or mountain snow;)

Ah well. But thy did not mention it till now either..

Good thing forecasts are updated regularly on da web.

arctictree

This will be interesting for the mountains around here. Lug already has a snow covering, so this event could deepen it even more. The weather looks cold for the rest of the week too so there could be substantial snow at the summit by the weekend.

JanuarySnowstor

I agree with Matty a rubbish forecast by the Irish Met.
Not even shleeet:D
Put on Evelyn for a good old ramp or cleary on the radio. He loves predicting drama haha. Seriously though a serious risk of snow tomorrow for the East and North

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I agree with Matty a rubbish forecast by the Irish Met.
Not even shleeet:D

They have been mentioning shleet for tomorrow for the last 3 days. How exactly is that "rubbish"?

Danno

Lads, that system has legs, look at the speed of it on Sat24.com - it is nearly half way here from Iceland. If it keeps at this pace it will be overhead by 8.00am.

Scubadevils

Deep Easterly wrote: »

They have been mentioning shleet for tomorrow for the last 3 days. How exactly is that "rubbish"?

Because they haven't mentioned snow! :pac:

Kippure

A repeat of october 2003 is on the cards

Snowbie

I don't know what the basis of your information is from or if it's just gut feeling WC but the 12z says nothing about widespread snow and i have been looking at this for several days now. Have you not taken dewpoints into consideration tomorrow?
With Atlantic air in the mix and moist air to boot, Dp will be a couple of degree's above freezing even though it's returning polar maritme air, the air at all levels be modified somewhat.

I don't think there is going to be a widespread snow event and even hills be marginal. Lug will do well and all other highest mtns in the east and north.
I'm looking at the GFS since you posted this thread and i see nothing that jumps out at me??

Wrong side of marginal i'm afraid. This can be just cold rain with a little sleet at first at low levels. If anything looks even remotely interesting appearing from the 18z, i will post up. Calling the forecast inadequate is certainly not i would use to describe the Met.ie forecast tomorrow, i would call it bang on from what i can see.

Snowbie

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I agree with Matty a rubbish forecast by the Irish Met.

Disagree with this. I think there spot on unless there is another super output, models, ensembles/charts that only a few know about, please share. I'd like one

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote: »

Disagree with this. I think there spot on unless there is another super output, models, ensembles/charts that only a few know about, please share. I'd like one

The MetOffice/Beeb model?

I'm talking about 3hrs of transitional snow btw.

ninebeanrows

News just in from the 9.27 forecast

"shleeeeeeet on the mountain tops" :pac::pac::pac:

Danno

Seen the RTE forecast, looks like a non runner really. The precip arrives too late to take advantage of tonights cold air. A max of 8c progged for here will put any hopes for snow to bed. Doubt even Ard Eireann (Slieve Blooms, 529m) will get a white cap tomorrow either.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ah well. But thy did not mention it till now either..

Good thing forecasts are updated regularly on da web.

what are you both talking about

i posted this earlier today in the it's snowing thread :

from met.ie:
"Around dawn on Wednesday, rain will arrive in western counties and will then spread eastwards to all areas during the morning. Some sleet or snow will occur for a time ahead of the rain, especially over high ground in the east and north. Outbreaks of rain will persist for much of the afternoon but will clear in the evening to isolated showers. Breezy and less cold for a time; highest temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius"

so, as you see, they did mention snow.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

The MetOffice/Beeb model?

Viewed them all and 8km hi res GFS says no also. Looked at the UKMO also.

I'm talking about 3hrs of transitional snow btw.

I know what your saying but tbh i don't see where your getting it from. I wouldn't base it on just the beeb graphic. The UKMO is a useful model but i'd rather the high res GFS anyday for the short term.

Look at the attach below at dewpoints. This is based on the 12Z output today and at 1hr intervals. The hi res GFS uses topography when outputting the data. As you can tell, Lug in Wicklow is the only place close to a 0C dewpoint, the rest of the country is above or even well above transitional snow territory.

Heights(Dam thickness),850mb temps, dewpoints and even air temp are not even marginal for most with the obvious exceptions.

GFS(18z)rolling out soon so check to see if there is a upgrade as the 00Z hi res won't be out till breakfast time tomorrow.:)

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

Lads, that system has legs, look at the speed of it on Sat24.com - it is nearly half way here from Iceland. If it keeps at this pace it will be overhead by 8.00am.

Looks fascinating. Forecast Hirlam chart makes it look quite a scary feature speedwise as well:

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

(click on Nedbør)

There is likely to be a big drop in air pressure tonight across the hills and bogs of Ireland.
Fellow nerds, watch your barometers, if they have storm warnings inbuilt, they will be a flashing tonight! :pac:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

what are you both talking about

i posted this earlier today in the it's snowing thread :

from met.ie:
"Around dawn on Wednesday, rain will arrive in western counties and will then spread eastwards to all areas during the morning. Some sleet or snow will occur for a time ahead of the rain, especially over high ground in the east and north. Outbreaks of rain will persist for much of the afternoon but will clear in the evening to isolated showers. Breezy and less cold for a time; highest temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius"

so, as you see, they did mention snow.

In complete agreement Libre, and you put across what I was trying to say far more elequently. When I said "thy", that is what I meant.

I really enjoy, and indeed, depend on top quality forecasts here on Boards. Most people know what they are talking about on here and are genuinely passionate about their hobby They don't feel the need to go slagging off a forecast from the Met at any given time just when it dosen't agree with their own. There is respect for the organisation who try to forecast a situation against all the odds and complications.

Unfortunatley, some just feel the need to slag off a forecast from Met Eireann just to enhance their own, and when they do that, then I lose all respect for them.

ninebeanrows

Deep Easterly wrote: »

In complete agreement Libre, and you put across what I was trying to say far more elequently. When I said "thy", that is what I meant.

I really enjoy, and indeed, depend on top quality forecasts here on Boards. Most people know what they are talking about on here and are genuinely passionate about their hobby They don't feel the need to go slagging off a forecast from the Met at any given time just when it dosen't agree with their own. There is respect for the organisation who try to forecast a situation against all the odds and complications.

Unfortunatley, some just feel the need to slag off a forecast from Met Eireann just to enhance their own, and when they do that, then I lose all respect for them.

:pac: Don't breakdown now DE! Forums are places for opinions and debate. :pac:

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

:pac: Don't breakdown now DE! Forums are places for opinions and debate. :pac:

Then give me debate WC.

and we will see who will breakdown first. :pac:

JanuarySnowstor

My take on tomorrow is snow quite widely for the East around lunchtime. This will then turn to rain for a few hours before turning back to sleet and snow tomorrow night. The highest mountains will be white throughout esp in the Northeast.
History tells me 2 things
1) Always go with the beeb rather than rte
2)Snow always occurs when it's least expected.

The nature of the rain i.e. very heavy at times will make it easier to fall as snow with evaporative cooling.

danni2

hi everyone!:D
new on this. Looking interesting tomorrow morning. Will the midlands have a chance for some snow tommorow? I see the highest risk of snow is for the north and east of Ireland.

2qk4u

Snowing in Cavan now...

rc28

I am officially :mad::mad::mad:. My brother in London just rang to gloat about how it's snowing heavily with an inch settled on cars etc already. Snow(let alone snow that is sticking) in London in October....very very rare

Kippure

It will snow tomorrow here in the east.....for sure

nacho libre

rc28 wrote: »

I am officially :mad::mad::mad:. My brother in London just rang to gloat about how it's snowing heavily with an inch settled on cars etc already. Snow(let alone snow that is sticking) in London in October....very very rare

Snap. My brother did the same. That what happens when you get arctic air that is not polluted - it will snow as far south as London.

ninebeanrows

BBC ramped up the snowfall.

"really interesting as we move into Northern Ireland as precip slides in, potential for several hours of heavy snow during the mid-morning even at low levels"

Snowbie

2qk4u wrote: »

Snowing in Cavan now...

This poster does not lie. Moderate snow in cavan. Radar attached.:)

rc28

http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/content/webcams/548960.shtml
http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/content/webcams/549610.shtml
The following are from Hertfordshire north of london just over an hour ago and it's still snowing there now;
http://picasaweb.google.co.uk/dupplawt/SnowOctober28th08?authkey=rftXouZBH8E#
If this were January it would still be unprecedented for central london etc to be getting snow, but it's October!!

ninebeanrows

Alert from MetOffice

There is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting parts of Northern Ireland during Wednesday. Outbreaks of rain will push in from the west, and will turn to sleet and snow for a time, particularly on high ground. Accumulations of a few centimetres are possible in places, before it turns milder by evening.

Issued at: 2210 Tue 28 Oct

Interesting disparity between Met Eireann forecast which does cover the NI region.