Heavy snow: Early Tomorrow across much of the North and East.

Supercell

In fairness to Met Eireann, it was always going to be a marginal event.
One degree higher dew point and there would have been feck all snow in Wicklow and I'd bet in many other parts too. Thats a pretty tough call.
I was talking to my neighbour earlier thats lived here ten years and he said this is the first time they've seen proper heavy lying snow like today in October.

At least 9/10 times in the past the Irish Met would have been correct, i'm happy this time they weren't.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Met Eireann were caught on the hop.
If you were a wicklow hill sheep farmer you wouldnt be too happy with Gerry Murphy,thats for sure...

What if you weren't a "Wicklow sheep farmer"?

DOCARCH

Posted a few pics of my Dublin Mountain 'snow experience' in the photo section.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What if you weren't a "Wicklow sheep farmer"?

I already know you don't give a damn about farmers DE after our discussion here recently whereby you told me I should move my farm to the Sahara desert when I was giving out about the rain in the "summer" so lets not go there again shall we..( I won't be anymore in this thread so you can say what you like:mad::mad: )

Supercell wrote:

n fairness to Met Eireann, it was always going to be a marginal event.
One degree higher dew point and there would have been feck all snow in Wicklow and I'd bet in many other parts too. Thats a pretty tough call.
I was talking to my neighbour earlier thats lived here ten years and he said this is the first time they've seen proper heavy lying snow like today in October.

They could have mentioned even a risk though.
The UK met office put out a weather warning for NI last night.

I've no confidence in Gerry Murphy when he is the duty forecaster for the simple reason that he seems to have an obsession with the non mention of the snow word.

I've lived here all my lifetime including w/end during my spell in college and this is the first time that I have ever seen snow lying in the croghan area or down to 600ft near here in October.That is true,today was a rare event but the risk was very forecastable.
Even this morning on their radio forecast. they were confining the risk mainly to high ground in Ulster and North Leinster.

arctictree

Deleted User wrote: »

I've lived here all my lifetime including w/end during my spell in college and this is the first time that I have ever seen snow lying in the croghan area or down to 600ft near here in October.That is true,today was a rare event but the risk was very forecastable.
Even this morning on their radio forecast. they were confining the risk mainly to high ground in Ulster and North Leinster.

I seem to remember some controversy a couple of years ago when Met Eireann forecast the possibility of snow in Donegal. The snow never materialized but a lot of commercial and sporting events were called off based on the forecast. I remember a number of Hoteliers complaining a lot about that. I wonder if this has anything to do with their reluctance to forecast snow on the 9 O'Clock news last night.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

I already know you don't give a damn about farmers DE after our discussion here recently .

Then you know wrong. My uncle and most of my relations on my mother's side are farmers in North Galway. Most of their land is vitually waterlogged with the recent wet weather so I do sympathise. We just don't make big bones about because no one will listen anyway. It seems BB that anytime you get a bit of weather in Wicklow, you'd swear it was the only place in the world that was suffering.

Be assured that it isn't.

Supercell

Weather forum gents...please PM non weather stuff.

arctictree

Anyone notice the hefty showers heading down towards Dublin/Wicklow on the radar?

4.0c here at the moment so will probably be sleety rain but the mountaintops are going to get another pasting...

A

JanuarySnowstor

Deleted User wrote: »

I.

I've no confidence in Gerry Murphy when he is the duty forecaster for the simple reason that he seems to have an obsession with the non mention of the snow word.

.

I couldn't agree more. The presenters should all tell the same story but they dont. He's a total mild ramper,always has been. Evelyn I suppose borders on the opposite but I must say at least makes the forecast interesting. There was a clear risk of snow and he just couldn't say the word. Anyway back to the here and now and it's pelting down in Cork with rain, huge drops much like sleet but not proper sleet. I wonder will the Northeasterly drag back in colder air.

Danno

It was bad form of ME, but they should adopt a UKMO idea of using % chance in highlighted areas.

Snowbie

Dan, you get anything in Laois today?

Danno

LOL @ Snowbie - just put my report up on Current Conditions. Nothing here today, a bit of sleet from 9.20am to 10.30am. That is all. Plenty of cold rain. Got a max of 9.2c before 4.00pm. DP got up to 8.3c. The whole system pushed thirty to fifty miles too far east for me.

bmcgov86

i laughed when i saw this section...weather in ireland....rain...rain...rain...

Danno

Well, this thread certainly deserves it's place in the Classic Threads Vault. Anyone else agree?

JanuarySnowstor

Just watched the eagle describe the next couple of days as quite pleasant in sunshine. Is this for real?? Temps at 6 or 7 and a gale force Easterly????? Somebody is losing the plot here like:rolleyes:
Ok we may now be finished with snow but I wouldn't get the deckchairs out just yet!

Snowbie

Forecasting is not an exact science yet and as tough as it is, we should cut the Met some slack. There has been a few comments thrown Met E way today and last night which don't seem to be warranted. Right or wrong everyone is entitled to their opinion (within reason) but i will give my 2c on this thread and explain what actually happened here from what i can see and read.

Looking at this system and which i have (first commented on it last Saturday) at first looked mouth watering as the cold air was in place before it arrived. Trouble was there is a warm sector around these core's, the track had it over us. It been October could not see if snow was a possibility as we have not witnessed this before so early.

Yesterday turned out to be a better day for cold air than at first with temps much lower than expected. Happy days, but the models in which i constantly look at, taking in every variable and parameter on board did not agree for snow and only the very tops of mountains had risk of accumulating snow. (posted earlier in this thread). My heart said yes but my head said no.

It seems that a line from Donegal to Wexford and west of that was in a warm core of the LP system that moved down through the country today. The centre of circulation travelled in over Mayo to Waterford/Cork as there are no reports of snow from there today. Anywhere east of that line from Donegal to Wexford got snow apart from the very east coastline due to onshore SE winds and general close proximity to a warm sea.

Basically the low pressure wobbled westwards leaving the east side with semi favourable dewpoints with little modification of Atlantic air. I feel if the LP came directly down over the country then none of us would have seen snow at low levels and marginal below 300 meters as was forecasted by models.

Reports of rain and sleet in Donegal, Leitrim, Mullingar(met site) and Laois. Reports of lying snow in Tyrone, Monaghan Cavan, Meath, Kildare(also from my brother by pic message in Kildare) and obviously the lads in the Wicklow mtns with accumulations at height also a mix from Arklow to Dundalk due to the warm water off the coast and onshore SE winds.

These situations are very nowcast and this was a very borderline event and Met E called it wrong in their live forecasts, but experience tells me you win some you lose some in forecasting and they lost this time but ease up, there not wrong all the time. A large portion of the island saw no snow and i don't think Gerry or Evelyn or anyone else could draw a line well before this event on where the snow was going to lay. I feel a few of the more regular posters on this thread who have experience in model and weather watching should have had more insight into this and feel the need to just attack the Met time and time again is getting a tad tiring

I'm not exactly delighted about GFS as it cost me a trip to Annamoe and a beer but before i realised what was going to happen, it was too late.:(

BoardsRanger

I realise im commenting here as an outsider but weathercheck seemed to be pounced on for describing Met.ie's forecast as "totally inadequate" - but it turned out to be an accurate description

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just started this thread as i feel that the Met.ie forecast is totally inadequate( for tomorrow) as it doesn't even mention sleet or snow at all:

Snowbie wrote: »

Calling the forecast inadequate is certainly not i would use to describe the Met.ie forecast tomorrow, i would call it bang on from what i can see.

Obviously forecasts can be wrong every now and again but i dont think someone should be pounced on for questioning forecasts!
Just my opinion anyway!:D

Deep Easterly

BoardsRanger wrote: »

I realise im commenting here as an outsider but weathercheck seemed to be pounced on for describing Met.ie's forecast as "totally inadequate" - but it turned out to be an accurate description

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=57718704&postcount=16

Was a pretty spot on forecast as far as I can see..

Snowbie

BoardsRanger wrote: »

I realise im commenting here as an outsider but weathercheck seemed to be pounced on for describing Met.ie's forecast as "totally inadequate" - but it turned out to be an accurate description

Obviously forecasts can be wrong every now and again but i dont think someone should be pounced on for questioning forecasts!
Just my opinion anyway!:D

No one pounced on WC and i most certainly didn't. If your going to disect my posts i'll quote myself here.

Me wrote:

I don't know what the basis of your information is from or if it's just gut feeling WC but the 12z says nothing about widespread snow and i have been looking at this for several days now. Have you not taken dewpoints into consideration tomorrow?

I go by the model outputs as gut feeling most of the time don't work in these nowcast situations and have continually back up and post attachments to my posts on what i was viewing. They where inaccurate after doing well upto this morning.

But i was young once also and share in WC enthusiasm towards snow, i'm alot older and i still get excited with the possibilty but i tend to go with my head nowadays, i just asked a simple question and got no reply which meant it was a pure guess that paid off. It came good and fair play WC, more of the same i say but it be nice to get a reply to a fair question also.:)

BoardsRanger

Deep Easterly wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=57718704&postcount=16

Was a pretty spot on forecast as far as I can see..

That would have been near spot on, had met.ie stuck to it. but later on, when i checked it, there was certainly no mention of snow. it was more like this. However i am open to correction.

Cloudy tomorrow morning as rain spreads eastwards across the country. The rain will gradually clear to showers during tomorrow afternoon. Not quite as cold tomorrow with highest temperatures of 6 to 10C.

Deep Easterly

BoardsRanger wrote: »

That would have been near spot on, had met.ie stuck to it. but later on, when i checked it, there was certainly no mention of snow. it was more like this. However i am open to correction.

Not exactly sure why you are cherry picking forecasts there Boards. Even in their later forecasts, they did mention sleet, which is what most of the effected areas suffered? Highground did get snow, which still makes the posted forecast spot on.

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

I'm not exactly delighted about GFS as it cost me a trip to Annamoe and a beer but before i realised what was going to happen, it was too late.:(

Don't worry m8, hopefully, there will be (a few!!) more opportunities in the coming months, plenty of beer in the fridge here :P

Danno

TO SUMMARISE:
-
Weathercheck called the Met Eireann forecast incorrect and when asked by Snowbie, he did answer with the UKMO model as his source of inspiration to be quite fair about it. The BBC graphic he had posted (now a radar still - but previously a forecast showing snowfall pretty damn much where it fell today!) was what he used to describe what he was trying to put across.

I think what should be noted here, is that, The Irish Met did not forecast the snow fall here well at all, whilst the UK Met did! The BBC graphic that was viewable here last night and early this morning was 100% smack bang on.

I suggested earlier, that the Irish Met need to start using maps that identify risk areas and give a % chance within these areas - similar to the maps used for % of average sunshine on the Farming Forecast. Example: http://www.met.ie/latest/agri_percentsunshine.asp

- Weathercheck, with a certain amount of luck it must be said too, caught this in the making and got it right. I have seen him call another event on here correctly in the past as well. And he has called a few wrong in his time. But thats the luck of it all, isn't it!

Snowbie

Supercell wrote: »

Don't worry m8, hopefully, there will be (a few!!) more opportunities in the coming months, plenty of beer in the fridge here :P

Oooh goody, snowshoes packed and car be fully fueled and ready to go at short notice;):D

Snowbie

Dan i used edit instead of quoting you on your post above, hence the edited by Snowbie bit. Oops

Weathercheck called the Met Eireann forecast incorrect and when asked by Snowbie, he did answer with the UKMO model as his source of inspiration to be quite fair about it. The BBC graphic he had posted (now a radar still - but previously a forecast showing snowfall pretty damn much where it fell today!) was what he used to describe what he was trying to put across.

I also followed that up. That is what i was trying to put across, the UKMO was entirely different to what was on the graphic for that time. As it was the 12Z where only available for that time of posting, i'm guessing, as UKMO 18Z is released at a much later time to the public, maybe the beeb graphic was updated as soon as 18Z became available which could explain the difference in what i was comparing and obvious upgrade on the graphic, quite possible but not sure if this is true??

JanuarySnowstor

Just to add my final tuppence worth on this.
Im 34 so have been a round a bit aswell and it's my view that quite often the beeb get it more correct than our own guys. Maybe they have more access to other models not sure. There was a clear risk of highground snow and the main argument was why didn't they mention this. They could have said there was a small chance of transitory snow for higher levels for even just one hour. Nobody is slating the Irish Met just asking why? Nobody is picking on Gerry M either just curious that he cant ever seem to mention the word snow

As far as I'm concerned,most people in this land will have gone on the TV 930 pm forecast on RTE ONE which mentioned "preceded by some shleet or shnow on high ground in Ulster and North Leinster".Strange when the BBC graphics for their 1030 and even their 630 forecast iirc had snow over wicklow.It was the "repeat" at circa 1130 that I saw which is recorded I think, and had the same line.

Roundwood is not North Leinster and neither is the well populated high ground west of me and 2 or 3 inches is not an insignificant fall.
To get a forecast that wrong less than 12 hours foward is sloppy.

Woe be tide us later on in the winter.

The fix as mentioned earlier by Danno I think is to use risk percentages.However I think that mightn't even work in the case of Glasnevin as that 930 forecast indicated to me that they thought there was no risk at all south of Louth.

JanuarySnowstor

BB, if you watch the forecast again from my memory the word snow wasn't mentioned once not even for the North. Certainly not at 7pm but i cant honestly remember it at 9:30 either. The beeb got it 100% right and the joke is they dont even concentrate on Ireland

arctictree

Well, here's another one.

Its 3.3c here and heavy sleet outside. Most definitely heavy snow on the mountains.

Again, this was not mentioned on the news last night!

A

Supercell

arctictree wrote: »

Well, here's another one.

Its 3.3c here and heavy sleet outside. Most definitely heavy snow on the mountains.

Again, this was not mentioned on the news last night!

A

Tis rain here, with a DP of 2.1°C I would have thought you'd need to go to about 450 metres or so to get to snow today.
You sure you are not seeing melting hail there AT ?