Election predictions

bonkey

I'm actually surprised this (virtually inevitable) thread didn't exist yet...

My prediction for the election is that it will be a hell of a lot closer than any polls are currently predicting. McCain will win, which will be followed by Republican supporters gloating how they "fooled" the Democrats as though the entire thing has been a carefully orchestrated plan that they've all been in on the whole time.

alastair

Obama wins with 52% of electoral vote.

Ludo

Good idea for a thread...prize for the closest prediction?
Gonna be fun to see who gets this right or completely wrong (prob me lol).

I'm gonna go for a very close result:

Of the swing/in play states
McCain to win: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Indiana, Missouri
Obama to win: Penn, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada

This results in the following electoral college totals

Obama: 278
McCain: 260

Disclaimer: The actual result could be anything from a 2/3 EV McCain win to a complete Obama landslide (up to 375 EVs). I have absolutely no idea really

kerry4sam

You know I am going to say that the polls got it relatively wrong and it is a whole lot closer that predicted and as such will be a much tenser night that planned ...

I would still say though that Obama will take the edge and ultimately win Wednesday, providing no re-counts wanted or contested - either way Obama to win, on either night, but just about ... I just don't forsee the landslide predicted by some

whatawaster

Karl Rove was on Fox last night and even he didn't hold out much hope for McCain, nor did Bill Kristol. McCain looks doomed to me, but i'm not counting my chickens yet.

I think Obama will comfortably hold Pennsylvania, and McCain can't really win without that state. Obama could win anywhere from 278 to 350 delegates.

If Obama does hold Pennsylvania, he only needs 18 more delagates from the following states:
Florida 27
Ohio 20
North Carolina 15
Virginia 13
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
Colorado 9
Indiana 11
Iowa 7

Bush won all of those states in 04 and Obama is leading in most of them now.
It's hard to see him not getting over the line, especially with the huge turnout expected.

cornbb

I predict a narrowish win for Obama. I don't expect the melodrama of either a landslide of a protracted legal crisis. I think an Obama loss is extremely unlikely, and if it does happen it will be due to voter apathy/poor turnout.

God, this is the greatest show on earth

horseflesh

Relatively comfortable win for Obama, 310-320 college votes.

conceited

Obama has this won already and by a massive margin.

Inquitus

Obama 340-350

Hobbes

220 McCain / 318 Obama. Or there abouts. As I understand it McCain has to win every swing state to even stay in the game. We even have places that haven't voted Democrat in decades changing over already.

I get the feeling McCain knows it as well. His recent appearance on SNL while funny (and made him more human) it isn't something you do so close to the election.

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/mccain-qvc-open/805381/

mike65

Narrow popular vote victory for Obama which is expressed as a comfortable win in terms of states.

Mike

is_that_so

I think it will be tighter than it looks and really depends on three states to give him the big win, VA,NC and FL. I think McCain will win Ohio and probably Florida. So I am going with 278 for Obama or 305 if he gets NC and VA but a win for Obama.

amacachi

326 for Obama.

Trojan

If the exit polls and vote counts are within 0.3% then I think Obama will get a landslide victory, winning almost every swing state (all but one is my guess). I figure a 310+ electoral count, with 54% popular vote.

If the exit polls and vote counts are "mysteriously" way off, particularly in pro-Democrat areas with Republican administered electronic voting machines, then the Republicans are stealing the Presidential election for the 3rd time in a row and America deserves whatever it hole it digs itself.

Ludo

Trojan wrote: »

If the exit polls and vote counts are "mysteriously" way off, particularly in pro-Democrat areas with Republican administered electronic voting machines, then the Republican scum are stealing the election for the 3rd time in a row.

lmfao...good honest unbiased moderating there Trojan

Tom65

I think the states Bush won which are leaning Obama will go McCain - Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana (though I'm not as sure about New Mexico). I think Montana and North Dakota will go McCain as well. Pennsylvania, Missouri and Florida are the 3 key ones, and I haven't the foggiest which way they'll go. Whoever wins two of them wins the election.

Hobbes

Ludo wrote: »

lmfao...good honest unbiased moderating there Trojan

There are already reports of..
- robocalls telling people not to show up until Wednesday if they are Democrat.
- robocalls saying they will be arrested if they show up to vote (in spanish)
- Voting machines voting for republicans when you click on democrats.

And many more. It is detailed here as well as a number you should ring if you feel your vote is being suppressed.

http://www.ourvotelive.org/home.php

I recommend checking the site as it goes into stuff that has been ongoing for a while now on a case by case basis.

Trojan

Ludo wrote: »

lmfao...good honest unbiased moderating there Trojan

Damn, you quoted my ninjedit! Foiled!

I call it like it see it Don't worry, I don't make moderation decisions based on politics[1]. Also, please feel free to complain on Feedback if you feel I've made a biased call.

1. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=57689601&postcount=9

amacachi

Obama with 325.

togster

Ludo wrote: »

lmfao...good honest unbiased moderating there Trojan

No where in his post did he say scum

OT Obama will win.

Chong

Mc Cain will unfortunately win this

Although I do hope Obama wins.

oscarBravo

Ludo wrote: »

lmfao...good honest unbiased moderating there Trojan

On a point of order, it was biased posting, not biased moderating. I know it was a tongue-in-cheek remark, but it's a crucially important distinction.

Ludo

togster wrote: »

No where in his post did he say scum

OT Obama will win.

Sigh...Trojan edited to remove the "scum" but I had already quoted it.

Sorry Trojan
No harm done...wasn't questioning your modding or anything by the way. I was pissing myself laughing when I saw it. I know you weren't moderating but I just found it funny to see a mod wade in two footed like that

Mr. Incognito

Mc Cain will unfortunately win this

I'd be more inclined to believe you if you posted some logic, pertinent links or anything more cranial than posting in really big letters.

Obama- 333

Students and Blacks to overwhealm voting centres.

Obama's ground mobilisation is simply amazing.

johnny_rambo

An Obama win with 305

bombjack2

Obama 390
McCain 148

Badabing

Obama 316 - Mcain 222, Im giving Obama Florida, New Mexico, penn, ohio, Nevada, and Iowa.

horseflesh

The people making "bold" predictions that McCain will win, will just quietly skulk into the background on Wednesday; they are just attention-whores who were hoping to say
SEE McCAIN....I TOLD YOU!!!11111

Handsome Bob

I am weary of the poll results in terms of the samples that are taken from across society. I think Obama will win, but I wouldn't expect him to do it with ease.

banquo

Obama 338

Hobbes

Got a mail from inTrade.

At 12:00PM ET today, Intrade market prices indicate Barack Obama has a 91.9% chance to win the White House while John McCain holds out hope with a 9.0% chance.



Also as of 12:00PM ET today, Intrade's state-by-state markets indicate Barack Obama is positioned to win states totaling 364 electoral votes to McCain's 174.

Will be interesting to see how it fares out against the futures market.