Crunch Time (TV3)

ZYX

smccarrick wrote: »

The IMF report on the housing sector in 2000, said prices were up to 20% overvalued at that time- and they subsequently went on the triple in value......... By that reckoning its entirely possible that a house valued at 900k in Q3 2006 could potentially fall to 240-250k bringing us back to what would be realistic figures for 2000.........

?

Excluding inflation. If you allow for inflation based on this, house prices must have been about 100% overvalued not 20%.

ZYX

spockety wrote: »

Either;

a) I am wildly over estimating the earning power of a doctor.

or

b) You are not a medical doctor.

Perhaps you should find out first how much a house cost in Rathfarnham in 2000. (not how much you think it should have cost but the actual cost) then work your figures from there.

spockety

ZYX wrote: »

Perhaps you should find out first how much a house cost in Rathfarnham in 2000. (not how much you think it should have cost but the actual cost) then work your figures from there.

Jan 2000:

"Rathfarnham, Hillside Park - Spacious home with private west facing rear garden, Accom: Ent Hall, living, dining, kit/breakfast, 3 dbl beds, bath, car port, GFCH, dbl glazed, Price Region £210,000."

"Rathfarnham, Otterbrook Willbrook Rd - New exclusive enclave of 35 town homes built by Collen Construction Ltd .. from £190,000"

"Rathfarnham, Heather Park - Semi Det. Home. Accom: ent hall, living/dining, kit, 3 beds, bath, good sized rear garden with raised patio area, GFCH, mostly double glazed, 890 sq foot, region £175,000"

jetski

And what about the wages and interest rates from the year 2000

seamus

Some quick research suggests that the average Doctor's salary in 2000 was around IEP£30,000 and a standard variable rate was around 6%.

That means that repayment over 25 years on a £150k mortgage would be roughly £970/month. That's nearly 40% of the gross salary.

jetski

and All roughly about 6 times a doctors salary.... thats food for tought.

ZYX

spockety wrote: »

Jan 2000:

"Rathfarnham, Hillside Park - Spacious home with private west facing rear garden, Accom: Ent Hall, living, dining, kit/breakfast, 3 dbl beds, bath, car port, GFCH, dbl glazed, Price Region £210,000."

"Rathfarnham, Otterbrook Willbrook Rd - New exclusive enclave of 35 town homes built by Collen Construction Ltd .. from £190,000"

"Rathfarnham, Heather Park - Semi Det. Home. Accom: ent hall, living/dining, kit, 3 beds, bath, good sized rear garden with raised patio area, GFCH, mostly double glazed, 890 sq foot, region £175,000"

Well an 890Sq foot hardly counts. I had a look for my old P60s and couldn't find one for 2000. For 1998, (the nearest I could find) I earned £25000. So clearly a house even one as small as 890 sq feet was out of my league

ronbyrne2005

ZYX wrote: »

Well an 890Sq foot hardly counts. I had a look for my old P60s and couldn't find one for 2000. For 1998, (the nearest I could find) I earned £25000. So clearly a house even one as small as 890 sq feet was out of my league

I thought most doctors did loads of compulsory overtime and grossed huge amounts?I know the starting salary for a doctor in a hospital is around35k euro nowadays but I read somewhere that most were earning at least double that when OT was factored in.

ZYX

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

I thought most doctors did loads of compulsory overtime and grossed huge amounts?I know the starting salary for a doctor in a hospital is around35k euro nowadays but I read somewhere that most were earning at least double that when OT was factored in.

However in those days most overtime was not paid. The first 10 hours overtime were paid at time and a quarter. The next 15 at half time (not time and a half) and the rest were unpaid.

spockety

In that case, my bad, it was a), I grossly overestimated a doctor's pay (I assumed 80-100k average).

But again I guess all it is showing us is that the rot had set in even in 2000.

January 1996:

Foxrock - Foxrock Ave - Fine 4 bed , 3 rec. family home. Quiet Cul-de-sac, good gardens... £109,000

And a sprinkling of 3/4 bed semi's in Rathfarnham from 70-95k.

SkepticOne

spockety wrote: »

In that case, the market was ill even in 1999/2000.

How the hell can a doctor not afford a 3 bed semi in Rathfarnham/Knocklyon?

Are you a witch doctor!?

Depends on the type of doctor. A general practitioner in 2000 would have easily been able to afford a house in those areas. Average salary of £72,700 * 2.5 = 181,750 mortgage.

Obviously, junior doctors building experience would have made a lot less.

Note, even in 2000 the 2.5 rule had been largely superceded so our GP could probably afford more expensive properties.

From spockety's post:

"Rathfarnham, Hillside Park - Spacious home with private west facing rear garden, Accom: Ent Hall, living, dining, kit/breakfast, 3 dbl beds, bath, car port, GFCH, dbl glazed, Price Region £210,000."

"Rathfarnham, Otterbrook Willbrook Rd - New exclusive enclave of 35 town homes built by Collen Construction Ltd .. from £190,000"

"Rathfarnham, Heather Park - Semi Det. Home. Accom: ent hall, living/dining, kit, 3 beds, bath, good sized rear garden with raised patio area, GFCH, mostly double glazed, 890 sq foot, region £175,000"

spockety

Well I have to say I was pretty shocked to see him say that the wage for a doctor was only 25k in 2000! You're saying nearly 80 which is what I had thought they earn. Yes obviously there are loads of different levels, but I didn't mean a junior doctor, I meant your average Merc driving family doc.

ronbyrne2005

Shows how bad things got that doctors who had studied for 6 years and worked long hours for a few years could not afford to buy a basic house in a nice area. Tradesmen a couple of years out of school were making more than junior doctors and outbidding them for properties. Things are reverting to normally now thankfully. Our essential public sector workers should be able to afford basic homes near their workplaces and the bubble prevented that.

Senna

spockety, can i ask were you got those house prices from 2000? been looking for old house prices myself.


The realisation that a doctor could not afford a 3 bed semi in 2000, makes me think that Morgan kelly is correct in his 75% drop. From the graft below, prices started to rise faster than the CPI in about 1996. Also from the graft, a 75% drop would be needed for house prices to return to normal.


http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m50/ctc_celtic/2lng85s.jpg

ZYX

SkepticOne wrote: »

Depends on the type of doctor. A general practitioner in 2000 would have easily been able to afford a house in those areas. Average salary of £72,700 * 2.5 = 181,750 mortgage.



From spockety's post:

?link to this info

gurramok

Just to add to Spockety's stat, I do know anecdotallly through friends who bought a 3bed house in Greenhills/Limekiln area for £180k in 2000 if that helps!

The_Conductor

ZYX wrote: »

?link to this info

You can find it on the HSE's website (it was quoted in a nursing dispute seeking higher salaries for nurses. The case was in 2001- but I'll see if I can dig it out).

SkepticOne

I meant to post this earlier.

Link containing some details of doctors' renumeration.

http://www.dohc.ie/publications/fulltext/quality_and_fairness/part1.html

Pay costs and remuneration

Pay costs account for some 70 per cent of current spending on health and personal social services. For planning purposes, when calculating the full pay costs of health professionals, an average of £40,000 (€50,790) per professional is used. For all health service staff in health boards, the average pay in 2000 was in the region of £24,500 (€31,108). Some examples of average pre-tax pay for selected grades in the health services are set out below.

• A staff nurse at the maximum of the scale with standard premium pay and no overtime pay earned about £31,000 (€39,362).
• The pay of a therapy professional (e.g. physiotherapists, speech and language therapists, occupational therapists) at the mid-point of the scale is £25,218 (about €32,000).
• The average earnings of a basic grade radiographer (inclusive of on-call allowances) are in excess of £35,000 (€44,440).
• The average clerical salary, based on grades III to VII, is £19,402 (€24,635).
• A hospital consultant earns an average of some £100,000 (€126,974) per annum in the public health service, excluding on-call or call-out arrangements which can vary from post to post. This also excludes private earnings for consultants engaged in private practice.
• While the basic pay for a non consultant hospital doctor at senior house officer grade is less than £30,000, (€38,092) the average earnings * including on-call * are in the region of £60,000 (€76,184) per annum. A specialist registrar would earn an average of £80,000 (€101,579) per year.
• The average payment per general practitioner in the General Medical Services (GMS) Scheme in 2000 was £72,700 (€92,310), including allowances.

Ideally you would want salaries around 1996 and corresponding house prices to do a proper comparison. In 2000 the bubble was well underway.

ZYX

SkepticOne wrote: »

I meant to post this earlier.

Link containing some details of doctors' renumeration.

http://www.dohc.ie/publications/fulltext/quality_and_fairness/part1.html

[/list]Ideally you would want salaries around 1996 and corresponding house prices to do a proper comparison. In 2000 the bubble was well underway.

Thanks for reply.
I thought this would be the type of figures you had. On the GP figures. This is a payment to GPs not a salary. It is to run the practice. Out of this comes wages, rent/mortgage, light, heat, insurances etc. The GP gets what is left over.

SimpleSam06

ZYX wrote: »

Thanks for reply.
I thought this would be the type of figures you had. On the GP figures. This is a payment to GPs not a salary. It is to run the practice. Out of this comes wages, rent/mortgage, light, heat, insurances etc. The GP gets what is left over.

What about the money paid to them by their patients? Sorry now but this impoverished doctors nonsense is just that. They are one of the few professions that can still get 100% mortgages for a reason.

SkepticOne

ZYX wrote: »

Thanks for reply.
I thought this would be the type of figures you had. On the GP figures. This is a payment to GPs not a salary. It is to run the practice. Out of this comes wages, rent/mortgage, light, heat, insurances etc. The GP gets what is left over.

Would the figures of £100,000 for the hospital consultant and £60,000 for the non-consultant hospital doctor be accurate?

JuliusCaesar

It should do - it's a hospital ssalary. Doesn't take into account earnings from private practice (although they'd also have to pay rent, light and heat out of private practice earnings).

I'm not anti-doc by any means - this discussion just reminded me that the HSE had me on the bottom of the salary scale (£16,000) because they wouldn't acknowledge 7 years experience abroad........bitter memories.......