What is going on with prices???!!!

Tom123

jetski wrote: »

Well you have been commin out with some serious claims and not a shred of evidence.

you do know alot of this trouble is due to fear.

What crazy claims have I made without evidence?

jetski

werent you the one who said Ireland will be worse than japan?

Id love to know how you came to that conclusion.

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

Well you have been commin out with some serious claims and not a shred of evidence.

you do know alot of this trouble is due to fear.

Do you have any evidence to back up your assertion that a lot of this trouble is due to fear?

DJDC

Give Jetski a break, he recently bought a house and has disillusioned himself into thinking it was the right move.

The_Conductor

Behave guys......

spockety

Highsider wrote: »

Dont agree with this at all. If anything these houses prices will be the least affected of all. If you live in the back arse of nowhere (Naas,Gorey,Clonee etc..) then you are going to feel the pinch in a huge way. Will stablised areas with good transport and amenities such as Dundrum,Rathfarnam and the like see a decrease in house prices? you bet they will but it will be nothing compared to the 60%+ house price drops in commuter belt zones.

But you're basing that on a feeling rather than fact. Here are just some examples in South Dublin that show you the way it's GOING...

Newtownpark Avenue Blackrock - Was 1,425,000 Now 895,000 (-37%)
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=355870

Stillorgan Wood, Stillorgan - Was 1,100,000 Now 795,000 (-28%)
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=272755

Rathgar - Was 2.4m, now 1.6m (-38%)
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/52-brighton-road-rathgar-dublin-co&-city/AJSKK285045

Whitehall Road D12, was 650k now 395k (-39%)
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=388964

And none of these have sold. In other words, the market doesn't exist at the prices they are asking, and so the prices must be lowered. Soon we will see loads more properties that have had these kind of 30-40% drops... then more with 40-50% drops... and so on.

As I say, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that some really bad fixer upper that someone would have snapped up at a peak of 800k could end up going for 220k.

Jesus, people were practically buying piles of rubble for only a 5-10% mark down on pristine properties in the same area when the madness was in full flight.

johnnyskeleton

No one can accurately call the bottom, the only thing that can be done is make a good estimate of the situation as it is.To know where house prices are going, you need to know where they have been. Ask yourself why did property prices go up by over 10% pretty much every year from 1995-2005 while wages were going up not nearly as much?Was it because:1) there were more people coming in2) there were a shortage of houses3) interest rates were at a historic low4) banks were willing to lend more5) people were speculating on making a fortune from property6) unemployment was at an all time low?It was due to a combination of these things. Some people will argue that basic supply and demand drove up prices (i.e. 1, 2 & 6). Others will say that it was due to the effects of the global financial markets and the availability of cheap funds (3,4 & 5). Whatever your take, none of the above factors are still present in Ireland, so house prices must inevitably drop. The real question is, do you think house price drops will be moderate or severe?

Tom123

jetski wrote: »

werent you the one who said Ireland will be worse than japan?

Id love to know how you came to that conclusion.

Here are a few of the reasons why I think that.

Our economy is smaller and much less diversified than Japan's economy was at the time.

We have no control over our monetary or exchange rate policy.

The global economy is in recession at the same time as we are. Export based industry will suffer this time which was not the case to the same extent when Japan's bubble burst.
Combining these export job losses with the jobs losses from the construction industry, which made up at 13% of our jobs. Unemployment will be much higher than it was when the Japanese bubble bursts.

Although prices Japan in went crazy the number of empties never rose the the same level as in Ireland.
According to the CSO Ireland in 2006 we had 15% vacant properties. This will put downward pressure on both house prices and rents.
The excess supply of properties for sale and rent is pretty much unique to Ireland. Rents have already started to fall according to the latest Daft report. And according the latest report from IPW rental property is taking longer and longer to rent and people are getting more aggressive with their reductions. 1 in 10 properties for rent dropped the rent last week alone.

nhughes100

Highsider wrote: »

Dont agree with this at all. If anything these houses prices will be the least affected of all. If you live in the back arse of nowhere (Naas,Gorey,Clonee etc..) then you are going to feel the pinch in a huge way. Will stablised areas with good transport and amenities such as Dundrum,Rathfarnam and the like see a decrease in house prices? you bet they will but it will be nothing compared to the 60%+ house price drops in commuter belt zones.

The point is that it not only depends where you bought but what you bought, there are and always have been massive houses in the countryside that are always going to be in the high end of the market, say 750k+. So would you ask yourself would I prefer a stately home with acres for my 750 or a 3 bed duplex in a housing estate in Dundrum?

The built up areas you refer to aren't going to see a huge drop unless at the very high end as there simply isn't the space to build, but let's face it anything over 500K is out of the reach of most people even before the credit crunch so a house selling for 1.5million that's now for sale for 850 doesn't mean much to most people.

Lastly I wouldn't call Naas or the likes the back arse of nowhere, once the rail infrastructure is finished you'll get to the city centre a hell of a lot quicker then by car from the suberbs. In any case, prices outside of Dublin didn't go up as much during the boom and won't fall as much during the crunch.

spockety

nhughes100 wrote: »

The built up areas you refer to aren't going to see a huge drop unless at the very high end as there simply isn't the space to build, but let's face it anything over 500K is out of the reach of most people even before the credit crunch so a house selling for 1.5million that's now for sale for 850 doesn't mean much to most people.

Maybe not, but the house selling for 1.5 that's now 850k means a lot to the guy who's trying to sell his house that was 850k.. So he has to drop to 500k... which means a lot to the guy who's trying to sell a house that was going for 500k.. he has to drop to 350k... which means a lot to the guy.......... and so on..

Karlrove

Hey,just wondering if theres any other advice for my original question/post. Thanks...dont know what to do,bale on this deal of go ahead with it??? Killin me!

The_Conductor

Karlrove wrote: »

Hey,just wondering if theres any other advice for my original question/post. Thanks...dont know what to do,bale on this deal of go ahead with it??? Killin me!

If its a long term purchase (read 20 years +) and somewhere you can see yourself bringing up kids- go for it. If not- don't. It depends on whether you are looking at the financial aspect of the purchase- or the intrinsic value attached to it- such as locality, ease of transport, suitability for children etc etc.

I would not buy an apartment or townhouse for the above reasons in any circumstances whatsoever, irrespective of the price- and I'd shy away from any development that involved a Management Company.

Will prices continue to fall- most probably. I don't have a crystal ball though- but the facts on the ground would support a continued fall in prices.......

robd

Karlrove wrote: »

Hey,just wondering if theres any other advice for my original question/post. Thanks...dont know what to do,bale on this deal of go ahead with it??? Killin me!

Your decision comes down to risk. What's the worst that can happen if you buy? What's the worst that can happen if you hold off?

Do a list of best and worst case scenarios. Assign them a probability of happening. Evaluate where you'll be if either of these scenarios play out. Then decide.

The choice is yours !!!

Best of luck.

nhughes100

Basically, if you can find house you like in an area you like that you could see yourself staying in and most importantly you afford the mortgage repayments(stress test this!!!) then I'd go for it, there comes a time when you just gotta move out.

You may be as well off trying to find a renting option with a view to buying after X months. In the current climate it's worth being flexible, also get your mortgage approval while you can.

El Stuntman

Karlrove wrote: »

Hey,just wondering if theres any other advice for my original question/post. Thanks...dont know what to do,bale on this deal of go ahead with it??? Killin me!

if you like money, bail

you will get the same or better much cheaper later in the cycle

groom

Tom123 wrote: »

jetski wrote: »

werent you the one who said Ireland will be worse than japan?

Id love to know how you came to that conclusion.

Here are a few of the reasons why I think that.

Our economy is smaller and much less diversified than Japan's economy was at the time.

We have no control over our monetary or exchange rate policy.

The global economy is in recession at the same time as we are. Export based industry will suffer this time which was not the case to the same extent when Japan's bubble burst.
Combining these export job losses with the jobs losses from the construction industry, which made up at 13% of our jobs. Unemployment will be much higher than it was when the Japanese bubble bursts.

Although prices Japan in went crazy the number of empties never rose the the same level as in Ireland.
According to the CSO Ireland in 2006 we had 15% vacant properties. This will put downward pressure on both house prices and rents.
The excess supply of properties for sale and rent is pretty much unique to Ireland. Rents have already started to fall according to the latest Daft report. And according the latest report from IPW rental property is taking longer and longer to rent and people are getting more aggressive with their reductions. 1 in 10 properties for rent dropped the rent last week alone.

You really know how to kill a debate, don't you.

jetski

I didnt reply cause i geniunly feeling wasting my time and im not messing.

To put it simple, japans crash happened over ten years.

Were two years into ours and were down about 30%.

groom

jetski wrote: »

I didnt reply cause i geniunly feeling wasting my time and im not messing.

To put it simple, japans crash happened over ten years.

Were two years into ours and were down about 30%.

So then we're ..... better off than Japan?

gurramok

groom wrote: »

So then we're ..... better off than Japan?

Yeh, do you not see all those homegrown MNC's we have that have been export boomers more than what Japan has had despite us having hardly any natural resources?:rolleyes::D

thewing

Look, for everyone age 23 and over, what were you thought in Geography in primary school? - Ireland's main industries = Farming + Tourism.

Both of them are in sh*te now(Farming is rock bottom).

Why did we think we were rich for last 10 years? Our houses started increasing in price, and some of us got rich by building/fixing/selling said houses.

Now that party is over what are we left with? Sweet FA - no farming, hardly any tourism(yanks are not coming due to dollar/euro), and the multi-nationals looking over their shoulders at Poland, India etc. In a nutshell, this country's economy is screwed, and no amount of interest rate drops or firesales of wendy houses...er I mean modern apartments is going to get our housing market going again. It's ludicrous to base your economy around an over-inflated housing sector as we have done - time to get back to exporting stuff, like shillalleighs,shamrocks or turf-powered cars - whatever can keep this economy sustainable in the long term.

Houses are going to continue to drop for some time to come, until the job-loss rot can be stopped and even then, the rises will probably only match inflation, as (hopefully) we'll have collectively learned our lesson of the boom and bust....

The_Conductor

What would you suggest as a solution- given our status as a very small, highly open economy on the periphery of Europe with obligations to our major trading partners? All those things that made us a success- low corporation tax rates, highly skilled low priced workforce, english speaking etc- have all been aped elsewhere- and we have lost our competitive advantage. Do we abolish our very high minimum wage, drastically reform social welfare entitlements- and let the market decide what price the economy is willing to bear? Its probably what we are going to have to do. If people are taxed anymore- they'll just give up and claim the dole.....

thewing

If I knew the answer, i'd scream it from the rooftops.

What made us successful in the first place? Our highly-respected education system - that now is even being ridiculed by the report the other day that said if the amount of honours degrees keeps increasing at current rate, everyone leaving college in 2030 will have a 1:1 in their back pockets.

Maybe this needs reform, and we need to educate our people to a level that the likes of India/Poland can't do currently. I think the partnership agreement needs to go, as the wage increases squeezed out in those deals has contributed heavily to our lack of competitiveness.

The one thing I do know is, there's gonna be a lot of pain in the medium term, for everyone...

20goto10

smccarrick wrote: »

What would you suggest as a solution- given our status as a very small, highly open economy on the periphery of Europe with obligations to our major trading partners? All those things that made us a success- low corporation tax rates, highly skilled low priced workforce, english speaking etc- have all been aped elsewhere- and we have lost our competitive advantage. Do we abolish our very high minimum wage, drastically reform social welfare entitlements- and let the market decide what price the economy is willing to bear? Its probably what we are going to have to do. If people are taxed anymore- they'll just give up and claim the dole.....

The solution is to stand on our own 2 feet and not rely on outside factors. Foreign investment is fine so long as they are investing in home grown Irish companies, not just hiring us as their chimps. In otherwords entrepreneurship. The obvious problem there is the first thing most entrepreneurs do when they have a winning business plan and a bit of investment is get the fook out of Ireland. But I still think its the direction we should be going and the government should be bending over backwards to encourage it. To be fair to them Enterprise Ireland give you a good start with the right business plan. Well they used to anyways I'm not sure what the story is now.

groom

20goto10 wrote: »

The solution is to stand on our own 2 feet and not rely on outside factors. Foreign investment is fine so long as they are investing in home grown Irish companies, not just hiring us as their chimps. In otherwords entrepreneurship. The obvious problem there is the first thing most entrepreneurs do when they have a winning business plan and a bit of investment is get the fook out of Ireland. But I still think its the direction we should be going and the government should be bending over backwards to encourage it. To be fair to them Enterprise Ireland give you a good start with the right business plan. Well they used to anyways I'm not sure what the story is now.

There might even be some money invested in entrepreneurship / patents in the future now that bricks and mortar aren't seen to be the way to early retirement.