December 2008 Forecast and Analysis

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 5th:

Overall Mean: 4.3°C (-1.7°C)
Overall Mean Max: 7.3°C (-1.3°C)
Overall Mean Min: 1.3°C (-2.1°C)

Deep Easterly

Attempted twice to post up charts and stats for november 2008. Each time did not register when I posted. A complete waste of an hour. Will do them again when I cool down, because I am fit to ram my fist through the pc screen at the mo.:mad::mad::mad::mad::(

3rd attempt:

Overall mean temp for November:





Cooler than normal first half, slightly milder 2nd half, more do to the rise in the overall mean min for the 20th onwards. Mean max finished close to normal (+0.1c), while mean minima ended at above normal: (+1.1c). This allowed overall mean to finish at 7.7c, which is 0.6c above normal, Coolest in the east overall.

Overall Mean windspeed:



Overall mean windspeed finished at 9.6 knots, which is 0.6 knots below normal. Not a windy month all in all.

Overall Mean rainfall:



Other station totals:
Knock: 129.1 mm
Ballyhaise: 64.9 mm
Oak Park: 47.4 mm
Johnstown Castle: 68.2 mm

Near normal totals over western half of Ireland, below normal totals in the eastern half. 88 mm overall, which is 89% of the 61-90 expected


5 Station MSLP:



Below normal windspeed and rainfall totals for the month of November reflective in the above normal pressure values for most of the month. Finished at 1014.0 mb exactly, which is 2.6 mb's above normal.

2008 Jan/Nov overview:

So far, temp anomalies from the 61-90 mean are running at 0.53c above normal, quite a drop from the 1.11c for the same period last year (2007).

2008 is proving to be a wet year also, at 1163.6 mm, the 2008 Jan/Nov overall mean total is running above the 61-90 mean of 902 mm and higher than the 882mm for the same period in 2007.

Phew!.... that was a challenge..:cool: Time for a ciggy or two I think..:D

.

Hal1

An hour! :eek: :pac:. What host you using, and whats you upload like?

edit: I see them now!

Deep Easterly

Hal1 wrote: »

An hour! :eek: :pac:. What host you using, and whats you upload like?

Vodafone "broadband". It's ........:mad:

Hal1

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Vodafone "broadband". It's ........:mad:

The contention must be shít. They where a nightmare to get going with vista initially ahhh. Good work on the stats.

Danno

Excellent production Pat. Well done!

lostexpectation

is it colder this year then last so far?

Danno

Sure is a lot colder this year so far than last. However, we are still above the 1961->1990 average.

Hal1

lostexpectation wrote: »

is it colder this year then last so far?

Noticibly cooler, where have you been? .

nacho libre

well, the mean temperature should be on the rise now with all this crappy mild weather that is forecasted for the foreseeable future :mad:

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 16th:

Overall Mean: 4.4c (-1.6c)
Overall Mean Max: 7.6c (-0.9c)
Overall Mean Min: 1.2c (-2.2c)

Yesterday (16th) was the warmest day of the month so far, with a daily mean of 7.6c. This is the first time this month that one single daily mean surpassed the December monthly average :eek:. As Mr Mayo notes above, we are likely to see a substantial rise over the next few days in the overall mean temp, but for how long?

Interestingly, for the period between the 1st of the month and the 16th, temps are running at -2.4c below normal. This could rise at the rate of between 0.2 and 0.4 per day as the mild spell kicks in, but still astonishing that we are now in the 2nd half of the month an temps have yet to reach close to average yet. :eek:

Strasser

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Up to midnight 16th:

Overall Mean: 4.4c (-1.6c)
Overall Mean Max: 7.6c (-0.9c)
Overall Mean Min: 1.2c (-2.2c)

Could I make a suggestion? I greatly appreciate the updates and thank you for going to all the trouble of looking up the data and keeping us in the picture. I wonder however would it be possible when you do look up the data would it be possible to give updates related to the particular months forecast competition questions so that for example this month tell us the highest and lowest recorded temperatures so far and the station that has the highest daily rainfall so far. I know you cannot answer questions about chrismas day yet obviously but a running commentary on the other ones would be of interest. Is that feasible? I must admit I don't know how difficult a job it would be and I don't want to add any additional burden on to anyone given how much time you already give to providing the excellent information and running the competition for us.

Deep Easterly

Strasser wrote: »

Could I make a suggestion? I greatly appreciate the updates and thank you for going to all the trouble of looking up the data and keeping us in the picture. I wonder however would it be possible when you do look up the data would it be possible to give updates related to the particular months forecast competition questions so that for example this month tell us the highest and lowest recorded temperatures so far and the station that has the highest daily rainfall so far. I know you cannot answer questions about chrismas day yet obviously but a running commentary on the other ones would be of interest. Is that feasible? I must admit I don't know how difficult a job it would be and I don't want to add any additional burden on to anyone given how much time you already give to providing the excellent information and running the competition for us.

Hi Strasser,
Of course you are right, I should be including all extra info with regards the competition, but with time being very limited recently and likey to continue limited over the next few months, my enthusiasm if very much surpressed in the whole area. My interest in the competition is mostly in the climate stats, and all anwsers to the competition are available in the Met Eireann summary at the end of the month anyway.:)

Aside from this, I will be quite busy with everything over the next few months, and would appreciate anyone who would help me out with the gathering of daily stats for our nation. If anybody is willing to lend me a hand, please let me know.:o I can send you Excel templates that will automatically add up averages and so forth. This month I had to drop gathering wind data and rain data due to heavy college work. So please, if anybody is free and willing, please let me know, as I want to get the climate of Ireland known in more detail to everyone who reads this forum.

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

So please, if anybody is free and willing, please let me know, as I want to get the climate of Ireland known in more detail to everyone who reads this forum.

I did mange to play a part with this before September, but then ...something came up... and I don't have the time or thought resource to get back into this at moment.

This does take time and I hope someone else can jump in and assist DE here with the gathering of the data, even if its just a copy and paste once day.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 21st: (10 Station Data)

Overall Mean: 5.4c (-0.6c)
Overall Mean Max: 8.6c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Min: 2.3c (-1.1c)

5 Station Pressure Mean for December so far:

1010.2 mb (-0.4 mb).

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 27th:

Overall mean 5.6c (-0.3c)

Overall mean maxima bang on normal 0.0c (D.F.A) , whilst overall mean minima remaining below normal at -0.7c (D.F.A)

Despite a mild snap mid month, at no stage this month did the overall mean enter positive anomaly. Indeed, it remained below average for the entire month so far, and the first month of 2008 to achieve this; and with only 3 days left in the month, it is looking like December 2008 will finish slightly below normal by around 0.5c. A notable month for sure.

nacho libre

so the mean could finish at 5.4c

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

so the mean could finish at 5.4c

Smug Fecker.

Valentia data still not updated at time of writing, but it is safe to presume that the final figure for December 2008 will indeed finish at 5.4c, which is 0.6c below normal (rounded). December was notable in that at no stage did the mean reach the 61-90 average. A mild spell mid month rose it a good deal, but was not strong enough to allow the mean to break into positive territory at any stage in the month.

Final overall mean max: 8.2c (-0.3c)
Final overall mean min: 2.5c (-0.8c)

Congrats to all who participated in the competition. Thanks to the mighty Supercell for making it a success, and well done to whoever won the thing outright. (now I wonder who that would be....:D)