Snow/Freezing Weather across Ireland (Friday 28th November onwards)

Supercell

The Bracknell fax charts are encouraging. A couple of frosty nights will have the ground frozen to a decent depth..perfect for the bands of snow that will probably appear in the east on Sunday onwards..
I'm quite happy with how its playing out so far.

Mothman

rc28 wrote: »

Dissappointing forecast on meteireann's website this morning

I think its a question of wording, but reading between the lines

Friday AM forecast

Extremely cold again Saturday night with a widespread severe frost, and perhaps some fog. Icy roads in many areas, as air temperatures fall as low as minus 4 C or minus 5 C. Scattered showers of hail, sleet and snow overnight also, mainly in parts of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, where some could be heavy or thundery. Sunday , Monday and Tuesday will be very cold days too, with fresh northerly winds bringing a mixture of sunny spells and further wintry showers. The showers of rain, hail and sometimes snow will largely affect parts of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, where some will be heavy and thundery. Wintry showers will be more scattered elsewhere. Daytime temperatures will only rise to between 3 C and 5 C at best, while the nights will bring further severe frosts, and a continued danger of icy roads.

Met E do think its mainly a western and northern affair

ch750536

Just showed up looking hopeful.

South

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/NMB3hCSwkRnWiOxw3kZq_w
West


North

Supercell

Beefy looking clouds there ch750536, wouldnt mind a few of them here!

ch750536

Im a long way out from here but it looks like it may be snowing over north limerick, those clouds to the north of me have really developed.

lollb

is there any hope for a bit of snow in wexford, we never get any:(

squonk

I know I won't be seeing much snow with my location being so close to the sea but what I think might be more beneficial in the long run is that the cold now might reduce SST's a bit and set them up to be cooler than normal in Jan when we could be lucky enough to get a few snow events.... fingers crossed! Is it a realistic expectation though that the current cold snap could help SST's along in dropping?

Snowaddict

Supercell wrote: »

The Bracknell fax charts are encouraging. A couple of frosty nights will have the ground frozen to a decent depth..perfect for the bands of snow that will probably appear in the east on Sunday onwards..
I'm quite happy with how its playing out so far.

Hey there Supercell, the Irish met forecast online and on their website is certainly not encouraging for eastern or southeastern areas, going on this morning's edition.

Do you still think there is a chance that these areas could still see snowfall in the next few days?
Met Eireann seems to think the risk will be restricted to northern and western areas....

EDIT: The 00Z charts seem to show a snow risk spreading south over the eastern part of the country on Sunday night.. with a widespread snow risk on Monday according to the snow risk charts?

Heads up now for the 09Z. Its certainly very chilly out today.

It's only a 50% possibility snow addict.

Zero likelyhood of disruption.

Unless you live on higher ground.
You've a higher chance opf white stuff being in kilkenny though.

Mind you being on the coast here we had an impressive min of -2.3c at 8am this morning and a dewpoint of -3.3c

GFS didn't predict temps here that low... or the colour of it...

Snowbie

squonk wrote: »

I know I won't be seeing much snow with my location being so close to the sea but what I think might be more beneficial in the long run is that the cold now might reduce SST's a bit and set them up to be cooler than normal in Jan when we could be lucky enough to get a few snow events.... fingers crossed! Is it a realistic expectation though that the current cold snap could help SST's along in dropping?

Thats correct squonk, i mentioned this before that the air above the sea can modify the temp of SST's.

Snowaddict wrote: »

Hey there Supercell, the Irish met forecast online and on their website is certainly not encouraging for eastern or southeastern areas, going on this morning's edition.

Do you still think there is a chance that these areas could still see snowfall in the next few days?
Met Eireann seems to think the risk will be restricted to northern and western areas....

Windward coasts receive the most showers, so in this case it's the west and NW. Though on Monday the wind is likely to be east of north which transferes the distribution of showers to coastal areas of the east and SE. How strong the wind will be will determine if the showers penetrate further inland.

Still always the chance of organised troughs moving south.

ch750536

Snow on the mountains in Kerry.

ch750536

Ive got 3 of these too.

Snowaddict

Deleted User wrote: »

It's only a 50% possibility snow addict.

Zero likelyhood of disruption.

Unless you live on higher ground.
You've a higher chance opf white stuff being in kilkenny though.

Mind you being on the coast here we had an impressive min of -2.3c at 8am this morning and a dewpoint of -3.3c

GFS didn't predict temps here that low... or the colour of it...

Yeah, doesn't GFS somewhat overestimate the max temperatures at times for Ireland, particularly during the hours of darkness?

The 00Z run looked very impressive for snow risk Sunday night into Monday in eastern areas. I wonder what the 06z run will bring...

Mothman

Snowaddict wrote: »

Met Eireann seems to think the risk will be restricted to northern and western areas....

Not my reading
See in forecast

Wintry showers will be more scattered elsewhere

My reading is that there is a likelyhood for eastern areas but its a now cast situation

ch750536

ch750536 wrote: »

Snow on the mountains in Kerry.

Nice one.
theres still snow on Lugnaquilla from monday too.

Snowaddict

Mothman wrote: »

Not my reading
See in forecast

My reading is that there is a likelyhood for eastern areas but its a now cast situation

Very good, fingers crossed anyway.

arctictree

Anyone see the latest 06z GFS?

Seems to be some last minute changes.Winds for the next couple of days seem to have turned slightly east of north. Also, temps seem to have dropped a bit.

For example:

Snowaddict

Snowaddict wrote: »

Yeah, doesn't GFS somewhat overestimate the max temperatures at times for Ireland, particularly during the hours of darkness?

The 00Z run looked very impressive for snow risk Sunday night into Monday in eastern areas. I wonder what the 06z run will bring...

I don't know how long you've been watching nwp's but,don't get too hung up on them as you'll only get disappointed.They are not the be all and end all.
The met office for instance usually end up doing their forecast with a blend of ECM and GFS plus common sense.
Back in the day when we only had the BBC to look at to see if it was going to snow and if I was to use that now,I wouldnt be expecting much.
Thats because when you only have access to the BBC,the only tool you have access to is the proffessional interpretation of qualified forecasters.They do get it wrong [sometimes more often than they should] at times but they are better placed than us or should be to interpret models.

So basically back in the pre internet days-we were watching common sense forecasts.
Often on here and other weather fora what we get are hopecasts.
These are interesting but they are to be had with pitchers of salt.

Snowaddict

arctictree wrote: »

Anyone see the latest 06z GFS?

Seems to be some last minute changes.Winds for the next couple of days seem to have turned slightly east of north. Also, temps seem to have dropped a bit.

For example:

Certainly did artictree .
Indeed, the Snow risk charts are have at least sustained the risk of snow in northeastern, eastern and southeastern areas for late Sunday night and into Monday, from what I can see on the latest run, but as always things are subject to change.

ninebeanrows

I think the 6z increases the risk of snow showers during Saturday night and Sunday AM..... and then again for Monday morning.

cian1500ww

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Pretty crap Cian to be honest.

Although with you in one of the more favoured spots, you never know.... just keep the faith.

Cheers mate, fingers crossed :cool:

In Maynooth till Friday night though and then back in Maynooth on Monday, doubt I'll get to see any of the white stuff

Supercell

If/when winds go east of north its bingo time, warm seas, cold air, low pressure..can only lead to one thing. I reckon this place is going to get extremely busy Sunday onwards.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

The met office for instance usually end up doing their forecast with a blend of ECM and GFS plus common sense.

Both Met Eireann and UK Met Office do not use GFS at all. UK Met Office use their own model + ECMWF; Met Eireann use their own Hirlam high resolution model for 0hrs to 48hrs period and ECMWF (basically the same model) for anything thereafter.

Snowaddict wrote:

Met Eireann seems to think the risk will be restricted to northern and western areas....:(

M.T. Cranium

What's this new "thanks from" feature, and how do you activate it?

Thanks to somebody in advance.

smashey

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

What's this new "thanks from" feature, and how do you activate it?

Thanks to somebody in advance.

Just click this yoke when you want to thank a post.

M.T. Cranium

Just looking at 06z GFS guidance and some other new material, would point to hail and snow pellet production being more likely than snow itself both today and Saturday, but in some cases these showers could become quite heavy and an event of some consequence in their own right, you have the upper low sitting right over Meath by mid-day Saturday so that whole area could be pelted with heavy hail or snow pellet showers. I think later today some of these will begin to develop mostly west of the centre of the country because there is a weak convergence zone setting up there, so possibly about 2-3 pm some hail and thunder may be recorded most likely between Galway and Limerick or so.

The upper temperatures are marginal for real snow until late Sunday and certainly good for Monday. However, snow pellets look enough like snow that nobody's going to complain about them, and they are easy enough to generate at these temperatures, and from the looks of those flat-topped CBs in the photos, shouldn't be too long in the making either.

It's too bad this outbreak of cold air is taking such a long route over water but the clear skies will get the temperature well down especially over Scotland tonight so the air flowing down towards Ulster and Meath will have low dewpoint values under that upper low, it all suggests rather heavy hail or snow pellet potential especially given the light winds allowing the showers to just sit over one place and drift slowly. So perhaps one place in particular might get a really heavy fall and it should be easy to spot developing on radar.

kerry1960

Some sneachta on hilltops here with the 'snowline' getting lower with each passing shower .

Also atm some very big anvil clouds to my NW .

Mullaghteelin

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

you have the upper low sitting right over Meath by mid-day Saturday so that whole area could be pelted with heavy hail or snow pellet showers.
...it all suggests rather heavy hail or snow pellet potential especially given the light winds allowing the showers to just sit over one place and drift slowly. So perhaps one place in particular might get a really heavy fall and it should be easy to spot developing on radar.

There is great potential, but one thing is missing: surface heating. A slack airflow like this in mid-winter is great for allowing the cold air to stagnate overland and become difficult to shift. You can even get temperature inversions at low levels which would more commonly occur under an anticylone. This is why the temps are expected to be so low over the weekend. I suspect freezing fog will linger all day tomorrow in a few sheltered places, with sub-zero daytime maximums possible.
However this also means low level stability and showers will struggle to survive for long once they move inland. You definately wont get heavy convective showers actually developing overland.

As regards the early days of next week: there will be a stronger breeze by Monday, and showers will probably become more widespread for a time. Some posters on here are still suggesting that EVERYONE may see some snow at some stage, and this could be a memorable weather event. I REALLY dont see any evidence for this at all. Yes, some people will do well, most likely the northwestern coastal counties, but I feel the majority of us will get no better than an odd light wintry flurry.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

If/when winds go east of north its bingo time, warm seas, cold air, low pressure..can only lead to one thing. I reckon this place is going to get extremely busy Sunday onwards.

You had enough in October. It's our turn now;)

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

You had enough in October. It's our turn now;)

Lol, its like the drink, can never have too much