Snow/Freezing Weather across Ireland (Friday 28th November onwards)

kerry1960

Supercell wrote: »

Lol, its like the drink, can never have too much

Well Sc no empty champagne bottles rattling around my bin yet ,

some impressive looking clouds promised much but delivered little ,

just sleety rain here atm ,

maybe something more wintery tonight ....

arctictree

To be honest, I'm a bit annoyed.

A feckin LP parked right over us for 00z tonight and no precip forecast!





Seems like all the precip is in a semi circle around the country!

Bah....!

Supercell

Its amazing, pressure of 995 yet hardly a cloud in the sky or a puff of wind in Novemeber, just doesnt seem right!
I believe though!, we will have precip tomorrow evening onwards..if not, Sunday looks pretty likely to deliver here.
Temperature 5.8°C currently which is likely to be the peak as temperatures usually start to fall on clear days after 14:00 at this time of the year here.

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

Its amazing, pressure of 995 yet hardly a cloud in the sky or a puff of wind in Novemeber, just doesnt seem right!
I believe though!, we will have precip tomorrow evening onwards..if not, Sunday looks pretty likely to deliver here.
Temperature 5.8°C currently which is likely to be the peak as temperatures usually start to fall on clear days after 14:00 at this time of the year here.

I noticed this too this morning. The low pressure is probably preventing temps from going lower than they would under high pressure conditions with the same upper temps and due to rising, rather than decending air.

Driving into Tuam a few minuites ago I noticed snow on the Mayo mountains south of the Reek, Perhaps Nacho can confirm this as he would have a far better view. No snow on Galway mountains though. But all the same a fab view of the hills due to sparkling clear air.

ninebeanrows

Could get foggy tonight, perhaps a few patches of freezing fog about.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I noticed this too this morning. The low pressure is probably preventing temps from going lower than they would under high pressure conditions with the same upper temps and due to rising, rather than decending air.

Driving into Tuam a few minuites ago I noticed snow on the Mayo mountains south of the Reek, Perhaps Nacho can confirm this as he would have a far better view. No snow on Galway mountains though. But all the same a fab view of the hills due to sparkling clear air.

yes, paddy1 there is the sacred white stuff on the mountains. if there is no snow here by Sunday. i'm going to go climbing. if the snow won't come to me, i'll go to it.:)

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, paddy1 there is the sacred white stuff on the mountains. if there is no snow here by Sunday. i'm going to go climbing. if the snow won't come to me, i'll go to it.:)

Don't forget to bring a camera!

Gonzo

hmm rte, bbc and sky all goin for dry sunny but cold conditions here for the next few days. All the showers are looking like they are gonna stay out at sea in the atlantic. Im hoping for something to happen next week?

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Both Met Eireann and UK Met Office do not use GFS at all. UK Met Office use their own model + ECMWF; Met Eireann use their own Hirlam high resolution model for 0hrs to 48hrs period and ECMWF (basically the same model) for anything thereafter.

In fairness Paddy,they do have access to and do look at the GFS and when they look at it ,then it's formed part of their decision.I agree they do tend to go more ECM/UKMO than GFS but it's not ignored by either office.


Regarding the swing of the wind to the East,I'm still fairly happy to think that artictree and supercell will be sledging again as a result of that.I doubt I will be though.

ninebeanrows

Well here's a summary before i head off to work.

My final thoughts for this Friday.

For Saturday morning and Saturday itself it will be very frosty with fog and perhaps freezing fog across the east, south and midlands.

Temperatures will struggle to reach 2 or 3c in many areas.
It will be mostly dry with good sunny spells but fog could linger all day in places.

For Saturday night and Sunday.

Winds will begin to veer Northeasterly, a sharp frost will set in quickly during Saturday evening meanwhile showers will begin to pep up in the north irish sea and beging to affect eastern coastal areas from Saturday evening through until Sunday afternoon.

Sunday will be a bitter day with snow showers early in the day across the east and southeast.

Max temperatures from between 2 and perhaps up to 5c along the eastern coast. A frost will set in after dark. Then as a low pressure system moves into southeastern England weather fronts will attempt to push west across Britain and into eastern Ireland towards Sunday night/ Monday Am.

Monday & Tuesday.

Monday morning will see heavy sleet and snow affecting eastern areas. Then very cold air will push south. There could be snow fall in eastern areas for upto 12 hours, light - moderate snow. Temperatures will struggle to 2c here.

Then towards Tuesday/Wednesday there will be harsh frosts with a liklyhood of more heavy snow right across the country as atlantic weather systems attempt to move east.

The wise words are to be patient, we are getting a great setting for snow, 2 days of hard frost, then snow showers and then potential for heavy snow.

It's all in a good order.;)

Snowaddict

Some big cumulus type clouds building now over south eastern areas, and its a bitterly cold day. However, these clouds are simply not producing anything.

I wonder if the east / south east will see any snow?

It seems very hard to get the situation just right, we now have cold air in place, but with no precip widely available.

Snowaddict

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well here's a summary before i head off to work.

My final thoughts for this Friday.

For Saturday morning and Saturday itself it will be very frosty with fog and perhaps freezing fog across the east, south and midlands.

Temperatures will struggle to reach 2 or 3c in many areas.
It will be mostly dry with good sunny spells but fog could linger all day in places.

For Saturday night and Sunday.

Winds will begin to veer Northeasterly, a sharp frost will set in quickly during Saturday evening meanwhile showers will begin to pep up in the north irish sea and beging to affect eastern coastal areas from Saturday evening through until Sunday afternoon.

Sunday will be a bitter day with snow showers early in the day across the east and southeast.

Max temperatures from between 2 and perhaps up to 5c along the eastern coast. A frost will set in after dark. Then as a low pressure system moves into southeastern England weather fronts will attempt to push west across Britain and into eastern Ireland towards Sunday night/ Monday Am.

Monday & Tuesday.

Monday morning will see heavy sleet and snow affecting eastern areas. Then very cold air will push south. There could be snow fall in eastern areas for upto 12 hours, light - moderate snow. Temperatures will struggle to 2c here.

Then towards Tuesday/Wednesday there will be harsh frosts with a liklyhood of more heavy snow right across the country as atlantic weather systems attempt to move east.

The wise words are to be patient, we are getting a great setting for snow, 2 days of hard frost, then snow showers and then potential for heavy snow.

It's all in a good order.;)

Hey Weathercheck, that sounds just brilliant for the south east and east, but how sure are you about such snowfall coming off from Sunday night onwards? Met Eireann don't seem to mention any snowfall in the south east... I really hope it does happen though, waiting so long and the steps are sure being laid today for the possibility of snow to lodge if it were to fall.

force eleven

Gonzo wrote: »

hmm rte, bbc and sky all goin for dry sunny but cold conditions here for the next few days. All the showers are looking like they are gonna stay out at sea in the atlantic. Im hoping for something to happen next week?

12.00 Satellite photo says it all at the moment....

http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-v.asp

Plenty of heavy showers out west and north,but making no progress inland...hopefully the synoptics will change in 36-48 hours.:)

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well here's a summary before i head off to work.

My final thoughts for this Friday.

For Saturday morning and Saturday itself it will be very frosty with fog and perhaps freezing fog across the east, south and midlands.

Temperatures will struggle to reach 2 or 3c in many areas.
It will be mostly dry with good sunny spells but fog could linger all day in places.

For Saturday night and Sunday.

Winds will begin to veer Northeasterly, a sharp frost will set in quickly during Saturday evening meanwhile showers will begin to pep up in the north irish sea and beging to affect eastern coastal areas from Saturday evening through until Sunday afternoon.

Sunday will be a bitter day with snow showers early in the day across the east and southeast.

Max temperatures from between 2 and perhaps up to 5c along the eastern coast. A frost will set in after dark. Then as a low pressure system moves into southeastern England weather fronts will attempt to push west across Britain and into eastern Ireland towards Sunday night/ Monday Am.

Monday & Tuesday.

Monday morning will see heavy sleet and snow affecting eastern areas. Then very cold air will push south. There could be snow fall in eastern areas for upto 12 hours, light - moderate snow. Temperatures will struggle to 2c here.

Then towards Tuesday/Wednesday there will be harsh frosts with a liklyhood of more heavy snow right across the country as atlantic weather systems attempt to move east.

The wise words are to be patient, we are getting a great setting for snow, 2 days of hard frost, then snow showers and then potential for heavy snow.

It's all in a good order.;)

The self-assured optimisim lifts my heart! If only it were true!



I do hope so:rolleyes:

Supercell

force eleven wrote: »

12.00 Satellite photo says it all at the moment....

http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-v.asp

Plenty of heavy showers out west and north,but making no progress inland...hopefully the synoptics will change in 36-48 hours.:)

Is that fog or snow cover in Northern Ireland?, I thought it was regular cloud earlier but it hasnt moved at all.

Peewee_lane

DOCARCH I hope your prediction is right! sounds idylic...

rc28

Supercell wrote: »

Is that fog or snow cover in Northern Ireland?, I thought it was regular cloud earlier but it hasnt moved at all.

I think it's low level thin cloud- I can see it approaching from the northwest here. Dark bank of cloud but there's no precip in it. Perhaps it is fog up north though as there's absolutely no breeze anyway.

Mullaghteelin

Seriously, Im sorry, but a reality check is needed here Im afraid. :(

Weathercheck wrote:

Sunday will be a bitter day with snow showers early in the day across the east and southeast.

It wont be cold enough for snow in the east or southeast on Sunday anywhere but mountain tops.

Monday does look like it could deliver some sort of half decent event, but up to 12 hours of it? I think 2 hours would be a more realistic forecast.

ninebeanrows

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Seriously, Im sorry, but a reality check is needed here Im afraid. :(



It wont be cold enough for snow in the east or southeast on Sunday anywhere but mountain tops.

Monday does look like it could deliver some sort of half decent event, but up to 12 hours of it? I think 2 hours would be a more realistic forecast.

Why do you think it won't be cold enough?

At the moment our real issue is getting some precipitation to come ashore, not the temperature.

Should be well cold enough for snow from tonight onwards.

kerry1960

Wrestling with new laptop atm so trying to reinstall my links etc , very dark clouds approaching from NW again , still reckon i might get something Wintery tonight .

pic @2.30pm the Slieve Mish Mountains .

rc28

rc28 wrote: »

I think it's low level thin cloud- I can see it approaching from the northwest here. Dark bank of cloud but there's no precip in it. Perhaps it is fog up north though as there's absolutely no breeze anyway.

yep, 100% cloudy sky now

Gonzo

certainly cold enough in my area for snow, just a shame about the severe lack of precipitation. Back garden is still covered in frost from last night so its damn cold outside!

Mullaghteelin

Weathercheck wrote: »

Why do you think it won't be cold enough?

At the moment our real issue is getting some precipitation to come ashore, not the temperature.

Should be well cold enough for snow from tonight onwards.

Well we'll agree to disagree and see how it unfolds.:)

I just dont think the air will be cold enough on Sunday at least for anything other than sleety wet snow in the heaviest of showers.
850hpa temps of -4C and -5C just arent cold enough for snow at sea level from this type of setup, in my opinion. Ideally Ild prefer them at about -6C or -7C at the highest, and thickness down to at least 522dam or lower. Certain types of continental easterlies obviously woudnt be as fussy, but this particular type of airmass which has crossed so much warm water will need a deeper cold to be confident of snow.

Ild expect the moment the wind shifts to the east the temp near the coast would rise to between 6C and 7C, even at night, and dew points would rise also. Whenever the winds turn to the east I find the temps and dew point readings at M2 buoy in the Irish Sea closely match my own here near the coast. For instance, currently the air temp at the buoy is 6.3C and the dew point is 2.1C. Thats what we could end up with if winds were turn to the east. In a heavy shower the temp might drop to low single figures for a time. Either way I doubt therell be many showers on the Irish Sea coast north of Wicklow. The winds are only expected to veer to the NNE which isnt great.:(

Supercell

I think you are probably right there Mullaghteelin. Though i think there will be shoers north of Wicklow for sure, and they probably will turn wintry in heavier downbursts at sea level.
I'd be lying if i wasnt pretty optimistic about my chances here though.

Peewee_lane

kerry1960 wrote: »

pic @2.30pm the Slieve Mish Mountains .

Thats beautiful

Mullaghteelin

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Well we'll agree to disagree and see how it unfolds.:)

I just dont think the air will be cold enough on Sunday at least for anything other than sleety wet snow in the heaviest of showers.

Probably right.

850hpa temps of -4C and -5C just arent cold enough for snow at sea level from this type of setup, in my opinion. Ideally Ild prefer them at about -6C or -7C at the highest, and thickness down to at least 522dam or lower. Certain types of continental easterlies obviously woudnt be as fussy, but this particular type of airmass which has crossed so much warm water will need a deeper cold to be confident of snow.

-8 to -10 850's idealy.Higher than that and it's a high ground event.

Ild expect the moment the wind shifts to the east the temp near the coast would rise to between 6C and 7C, even at night,

No you are overcooking that.4 to 6c at the highest.Probably 5c.

and dew points would rise also.

To 1-2c

Whenever the winds turn to the east I find the temps and dew point readings at M2 buoy in the Irish Sea closely match my own here near the coast. For instance, currently the air temp at the buoy is 6.3C and the dew point is 2.1C. Thats what we could end up with if winds were turn to the east.

a degree or so lower in the air temp and dp actually but Rain in the showers yes.

In a heavy shower the temp might drop to low single figures for a time. Either way I doubt therell be many showers on the Irish Sea coast north of Wicklow. The winds are only expected to veer to the NNE which isnt great.:(

I wouldnt worry about that as they will be rain anyway except up where Supercell and artictree are.

By the way my VP2 has the snow symbol on it but it hasnt a clue.It doesnt know what has been said above.

Snowaddict

Unfortunately the latest 12Z GFS run is somewhat of a downgrade for the current cold spell for Ireland IMO. It is very progressive with the movement of the colder air eastwards.

However, it still does display a snowrisk for western areas a lot of the time up to Monday, along with Eastern, northeastern and southeastern areas very late on Sunday and on Monday morning, with another possiblity for much higher ground into early on Tuesday.

Interestingly, the Net weather weekend forecast suggests the possiblity of more persistent sleet and snow spreading across Ireland from the west late on Sunday.

Although I'd be quite skeptical about seeing snowfall at the moment to be honest.

ch750536

kerry1960 wrote: »

Wrestling with new laptop atm so trying to reinstall my links etc , very dark clouds approaching from NW again , still reckon i might get something Wintery tonight .

pic @2.30pm the Slieve Mish Mountains .

Looking out the office window looks like snow over you just now, can you confirm?

repr

Supercell wrote: »

Is that fog or snow cover in Northern Ireland?, I thought it was regular cloud earlier but it hasnt moved at all.

Well I am just back from Antrim Area Hospital and it is just low cloud and temps of 2c

Gonzo

looks like the cold spell has been cut down to Monday evening/Tuesday morning. If it has no worries we got an entire winter ahead of us yet.