Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009

Deep Easterly

Just thought I would open up a Model outlook analysis thread for anyone wishing to have a good yap (or a good moan) on how forecast models are favouring a desired weather type.

I will kick it off by not posting any charts from today's 12z runs, because they are, quite simply, offensive.

nacho libre

damnit. paddy1, when you say offensive, do you mean there is no sign of snow for the forseeable future:(

Snowbie

Well it's only one run

but horrid all the same

M.T. Cranium

I think that a better chance for cold weather will return later this month, wouldn't be too discouraged if there are two or three very mild days next week, that's part of the set-up, what's needed is for the flow over parts of North America to lift back northward later this month and then all that very cold air that has developed around Greenland, Baffin Island and Svalbard will all have fewer places to escape, thus more can come your way.

I think that the week starting around the 23rd of December may see a return to quite cold weather, before that it may be more of a battleground situation after the mild spell.

Snowaddict

I like the look of the GFS 12Z and the ECM latest run.
Both suggesting potential for Ireland even in the medium term, however this will most likely change.
Thought I would post this chart below, somewhat interesting I think.
Of course it can all change, but promising at least.

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

I like the look of the GFS 12Z and the ECM latest run.
Both suggesting potential for Ireland even in the medium term, however this will most likely change.
Thought I would post this chart below, somewhat interesting I think.
Of course it can all change, but promising at least.

Fantastic chart Snowaddict. Just ran through the ECM run and while a strong easterly flow, courtasy of a strong ridge into Scandinavia is shown as close as 168hrs:



the sheer unwillingness of that damn high in mid Atlantic to loosen its poisoness grip from our shores is evident throughout the rest of the run:

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2401.gif

As grim as it looks, a small hope still prevails as models often have trouble handling easterlies, and often they spring up all of a sudden in the reliable timeframe. I hope this happens this time, because the charts shown are really terrible. Just weakly zonal with lots of cloudy drizzlely type stuff. :mad:

Somebody stick glue on that high and order it not to move untill it verifies [the scandinavian one !!]

nacho libre

not too pushed about a deep easterly to be honest. we had five days of fairly cold weather already. it would be good as a means to an end though if it meant the winds eventually swung around to the north and we eventually got a cold front from Greenland followed by a polar low to come down over the country before or during christmas. that would be the perfect christmas present.:cool:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

not too pushed about a deep easterly to be honest.:cool:

Sacrilege

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Sacrilege

sorry paddy1, but my priority is snow, a deep easterly doesn't bring much snow to this part of the world.

TheGreenGiant

The easterly winds brought snow last February. Only for there was a strong depression out in the Atlantic steadily making its way to our shores, the easterlies could have prevailed bringing more snowy conditions.

Deep Easterly

Another pretty bland ECM run this morning, but it does look a bit more interesting from 216hrs onwards:





Of note are pressure builds over Newfoundland and NE Scandinavia, which could leave Ireland open to some (severe???) wintry weather after mid month. All based on FI of course, but we must keep a clutching...:)

nacho libre

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

The easterly winds brought snow last February. Only for there was a strong depression out in the Atlantic steadily making its way to our shores, the easterlies could have prevailed bringing more snowy conditions.

When i said our part of the world i meant the west of Ireland.
They do bring snow to the east but give us sod all - a few snow flurries if we are lucky.

arctictree

The 12z GFS is the worst I have seen in a long time. Mild muck into and beyond FI. Hope it changes on the next run!!

A

arctictree

12z GFS has thrown up a surprise for next Saturday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

7 days out and subject to change but interesting nonetheless...

A

mike65

Those of us who are cash strapped will not like this prolonged cold period.

Gonzo

starting to get fed up of all this frost now, ive slipped about 8 times in past week. The roads around Dunshaughlin today have been lethal all day as the frost has failed to melt yet again, all roads leading to dunshaughlin with the exception of the N3 have been covered in icey patchs all day.

nacho libre

well, i do enjoy this cold weather but then you realise it can't be fun for elderly people:(

forkassed

Monday night/Tuesday morning could be fun

Deep Easterly

ECM are keeping up the theme of potant Northwesterlies for the beginning of next week:



Of course it is way in FI at the moment, but the consistancy is encouraging at least. If it was to come off anything like that, then snow/thunder/gales could be on the cards for our wee nation at the start of next week.

nacho libre

The wait for snow goes on:( No sign of snow this week according to the Farming forecast.

mike65

Westerlies ha ha!

Mullaghteelin

mike65 wrote: »

Westerlies ha ha!

Its VERY possible to cold weather from Atlantic westerlies.

Imagine a record breaking Atlantic storm of 916hPa between Scotland and Iceland, giving Ireland SWly gales. Doesnt sound particularly cold does it? Well, it gave Ireland frequent heavy snow showers. Even the east coast managed to get a covering!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119930111.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119930112.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00219930112.gif

When cold zonality kicks in, it can last for weeks on end, and we've been getting quite a lot of it on and off since the Summer. Im not saying charts like the above will happen, but I feel that this year the Atlantic Westerlies may not give us the relentless mild muck that we've come to expect.

ninebeanrows

Strange synoptics looking likely in the coming 2 weeks.

Staying cold all the time with cold zonality breaking through late this week.

And things are a stirring.

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

Strange synoptics looking likely in the coming 2 weeks.

Staying cold all the time with cold zonality breaking through late this week.

And things are a stirring.

Certainly FI charts are a peach WC. ECMWF sticking with the cold NW flow for the end of next weekend into the early days of next week, if a little toned down from ealier charts:



Even more interesting are charts beyond from this model:

Pressure rising over Northern Scandinavia: :eek:



Notice low over south Greenland, because next chart has it being forced south due to rise in pressure over north Scandinavia:



Possible snow laden easterlies in the run up to Christmas???? I won't believe it until they are being shown within the 120hrs range. But excellent charts this evening. I just hope the trend continues. :)

nacho libre

Saturday may deliver something:) hopefully as the week goes on they'll mention the possibility of snow at lower levels

met.ie:
Wednesday night will be mostly dry and calm, with clear spells, but patches of rain and drizzle will occur, mainly along the west coast, with the possibility of some patchy sleet further inland. Very cold, with severe, especially in the midlands and east, but less cold along the west coast. There is a risk of freezing fog also. Thursday will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain and drizzle becoming widespread as the day progresses, with some sleet in places. Cold, with mostly light winds. Frost will return on Thursday night, but it will clear quickly by morning. Friday will become milder, with rain and strong southwesterly winds spreading from the Atlantic. Saturday will be very cold with sunny intervals and occasional showers, with some hail and a risk of some sleet or snow over mountains. Breezy, with fresh westerly winds. Frost in many areas on Saturday night, despite the breeze.

{Russian spy accent} Zeee Veather iz varm in moscow right now {/Russian accent}

If we do get an easterly,it will take a long time for it to take a 1980's affect given the conditions over there right now.

From Experience in the 80's even when the temp in Russia was -18c by day and we got that air,it took the guts of a week for it to be felt over here.

Thats a long time for a Scandi high to stay in place and not calve to the affects of the Atlantic.
Temps of 0c in the day time in an Easterly like that would be modified so much by the time that they get here that we'd actually have higher temps than we have today ironically.

So when looking East the moral is-check the temps at the source..I'm afraid at the moment the news on that score ain't good

Matter of fact,it's probably colder in Roundwood than in Moscow at this very moment

danni2

Saturday night and Sunday looks pretty cold according to 12z gfs charts, dont know about lower levels but higher ground may see some snow out of this.

Looking ahead at T384 is really shocking:eek:, not a hope of a white christmas if that comes off:mad:

Deep Easterly

There is still hope though in that ECM keeps it average to cool for the next 10 days in the latest run. Still showing signs of building pressure to the Northeast of Scandinavia too over the next few days. In general. Looks cool and showery over Ireland for the foreseable with the odd band of not so mild rain passing over.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

There is still hope though in that ECM keeps it average to cool for the next 10 days in the latest run. Still showing signs of building pressure to the Northeast of Scandinavia too over the next few days. In general. Looks cool and showery over Ireland for the foreseable with the odd band of not so mild rain passing over.

so cold mostly- but not cold enough for snow:mad::mad:

Snowbie

Nothing really exciting from the 18Z either. Keeps a kinda cool spell going rather than even cold zonal type. Some mild interludes followed by cool RPM stuff, temps more avg than above or below. No N'ly outbreak nor our near continent looks threatening for cold. Although some more cold pooling wants to pool in Siberia, vortex after vortex make sure some modified air gets to mix it up more.

[pinch of] As for Christmas if you want to go that far ahead, some of us could wine and dine outdoors in T-shirts but thats miles away and not to be even looked at yet[/salt]