Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009

LEIN

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/12/28/bitterly-cold-weather-forecast-for-new-year-115875-21000942/

The Sunday Mirror think the big freeze is coming. Night time temps next week of -6.

Story also on page 8 in the paper.

Im not really a fan of these news papers because imo i think they would print any aul bull sh1t but when your stuck in work with noting to do, you would do anything to pass the time.

DOCARCH

Damo9090 wrote: »

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/12/28/bitterly-cold-weather-forecast-for-new-year-115875-21000942/

The Sunday Mirror think the big freeze is coming. Night time temps next week of -6.

Such a load of c**k! These tabloid journos don't have a clue what they are writing about.* -6c nothing exceptional there?

Look at current temps in Scotland (http://www.xcweather.co.uk/) at 11am - Aviemore -10c : Loch Glascarnoch -8c : Altnaharra -6c - if the papers got hold of this info they be predicting the onset of the next ice age!

*BTW I do think we will have a cold couple of weeks.

Pangea

That looks promising this is even better.
http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/hampshirenews/4004780.County_braces_itself_for_cold_start_to_2009/

LEIN

Pangea wrote: »

That looks promising this is even better.
http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/hampshirenews/4004780.County_braces_itself_for_cold_start_to_2009/

They seem to be pretty certain of this cold snap even giving the second week in January a metion which is way out in FI.

Gonzo

Damo9090 wrote: »

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/12/28/bitterly-cold-weather-forecast-for-new-year-115875-21000942/

The Sunday Mirror think the big freeze is coming. Night time temps next week of -6.

I hate those rag papers, I remember 2 winters ago around mid November they predicted a UK-wide freeze up with temperatures going below -10C.... of course it didnt happen and we all had an entire winter of mild wet muck. They say this thing at least once almost every winter.

shamwari

I found the following analysis on UKWeatherworld earlier. The lads over there are every bit as cautious about this as we are here, but nonetheless, their views make interesting reading:

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows trough disruption over the mid-Atlantic on day 6, which has the effect of weakening our high. Winds are easterlies for the Midlands southwards, with SE'lies or southerlies further north and west. By day 7 the high continues to decline, with westerlies for many as a result.
Day 6 with GFS shows high pressure to the west and NNW'lies over the UK. By day 7 the high moves westwards as an upper trough extends SE'wards to the NE/ A trough covers the North Sea and cold northerlies and NW'lies are the result over the UK.

Looking further afield
Further trough disruption occurs on day 8 with ECM, leading to the effect that our high gets pulled NW'wards. Cool northerlies and NNW'lies thus move over the UK, followed by stronger and colder nortehrlies on day 9 as low pressure deepens over the German Bight. By day 10 pressure builds strongly over the Denmark Strait, with a ridge over Northern Ireland and a mixture of northerlies and NW'lies for the UK.
On day 8 with GFS a weak ridge covers the UK, bringing light but very cold ENE'lies and NE'lies. On day 9 much of the UK lies under a cold col, but strengthening easterlies bring heavy snow to the south of England. The snow spreads across much of the UK on day 10, driven on by a moderate NE'ly wind from a low over France.

Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show temperatures aloft not far from average for the next five days or so, although it's likely to remain on the cold side at the surface. Thereafter a marked change to a colder, wetter type of weather is indicated, which could be prolonged.

Pangea

shamwari wrote: »

I found the following analysis on UKWeatherworld earlier. The lads over there are every bit as cautious about this as we are here, but nonetheless, their views make interesting reading:

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows trough disruption over the mid-Atlantic on day 6, which has the effect of weakening our high. Winds are easterlies for the Midlands southwards, with SE'lies or southerlies further north and west. By day 7 the high continues to decline, with westerlies for many as a result.
Day 6 with GFS shows high pressure to the west and NNW'lies over the UK. By day 7 the high moves westwards as an upper trough extends SE'wards to the NE/ A trough covers the North Sea and cold northerlies and NW'lies are the result over the UK.

Looking further afield
Further trough disruption occurs on day 8 with ECM, leading to the effect that our high gets pulled NW'wards. Cool northerlies and NNW'lies thus move over the UK, followed by stronger and colder nortehrlies on day 9 as low pressure deepens over the German Bight. By day 10 pressure builds strongly over the Denmark Strait, with a ridge over Northern Ireland and a mixture of northerlies and NW'lies for the UK.
On day 8 with GFS a weak ridge covers the UK, bringing light but very cold ENE'lies and NE'lies. On day 9 much of the UK lies under a cold col, but strengthening easterlies bring heavy snow to the south of England. The snow spreads across much of the UK on day 10, driven on by a moderate NE'ly wind from a low over France.

Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show temperatures aloft not far from average for the next five days or so, although it's likely to remain on the cold side at the surface. Thereafter a marked change to a colder, wetter type of weather is indicated, which could be prolonged.

Nice
By colder and wetter does he mean snow ?

arctictree

Some nice charts out now (GFS and ECM).

The really good stuff keeps getting pushed back into FI though.

Deep Easterly

ECMWF continuing the theme of a substantial pressure build to the north in the latest run.

Even at 144hrs, developments taking place.



Nothing progged at this time range can be deemed as certain, but encouraging that theme is continuing and is also a little closer. I haven't looked at the GFS runs to be honest, but no doubt they a showing much the same scenario.

Nail biting times ahead.

EDIT:

ECMWF 144hrs 850's:



Nail already chewed down to stump...

Please God, make it happen.

TheGreenGiant

Thats a nice looking chart and if things play out this way, oh boy we will be in the midst of some winter weather we haven't seen for quite some time:D


Was just looking at this chart and although its 5 days away-F1:( this ECM at 850hPa looks really good. The LP that we can't see on this image just over Scadi would be great if it could some how make its way east due the the HP over Europe. That would hopefully bring a good case of snow fall:).Guess we shall just have to wait and see how this cold spell will play out. But I have to say, things are looking up compared to last winter when all we kept getting was a mild SW airflow. And then when we eventually got a easterly airflow in Febuary, we were on our way into spring so the cold air wasn't as severe. Plus the fact the HP didn't last very long:mad:



[IMG]file:///C:/Users/HP/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]

snowfan

Ok guys, don't get too excited - it looks like Joe Bastardi over at Accuweather.com is really predicting a cold and I mean cold blast for Europe - he is calling this the "nastiest in recent memory" for Europe as a whole....

SUNDAY DEC 28 8 AM

YOU WANT IT, YOUR GOING TO GET IT.

The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern european pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The 2-3 week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occuring now because of the block over the north, will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was , in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continents weather and see how it turns out. In the end we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory - Joe Bastardi

snowfan

That is true Danno; I did think to myself that Joe was talking about the mainland of Europe rather than Britain & Ireland. However he does mention Europe as a "whole"

Also, just seen the RTE weather after the 9 O'Clock news - the forecaster predicted that it will get even colder by the end of this week....so maybe the models coming out will actually kick in after all ?

Snowfan

Danno

Needless to say that from tomorrow's data onwards we should be getting a clearer picture of the scenario as the data input will be restored to normal.

200motels

Sorry about last post. These are the models that are very interesting for snow in a week or so, I know it's a way off but who knows.

shamwari

The link is http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel.html

I'm not sure how relevant this is - the charts seem to be USA..

200motels

shamwari wrote: »

The link is http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel.html

I'm not sure how relevant this is - the charts seem to be USA..

Sorry about that I put in wrong link. I've posted the charts.

Danno

Yup, Tomorrows 12z and 18z will begin to process the extra data that has been absent for the holiday period.

The signs from tonight is for a weather front on Saturday over Ireland to be clashing with the cold air... the cold air wins, but whether or not it could fall as snow is unknown at this time to be sure. More runs this week will reveal more.

Another focus should be on Tomorrow night and Early Tuesday in the west. Low dewpoints and some light frontal precip in off the Atlantic up against a stiff ESE wind could provide some inland areas west of the Shannon with a dusting - probably will be just sleety rain though.

mike65

The max/min temp charts on wetterzentral make grim viewing.

arctictree

Just had a look at the 00z GFS. This is not a great run but there is still a snow event forecast for Sunday night. Ah - why are these events always 7 days away?!!

Snowbie

I have deleted several posts due to been off topic. This is the third time this has been mentioned now in this thread. Keep on topic and discuss what the models are showing. This is not a forecast thread as there is still nothing set in stone and everything still outside reliable timeframe.

200motels

These are the latest models.

snowfan

Snowbie wrote: »

I have deleted several posts due to been off topic. This is the third time this has been mentioned now in this thread. Keep on topic and discuss what the models are showing. This is not a forecast thread as there is still nothing set in stone and everything still outside reliable timeframe.

Thats a fair point Snowbie - I am guilty of going off topic...sorry :cool:
Anyway, will try to keep on topic going forward..I don't have as much expertise as you guys but once again thanks for sharing your knowledge and up to date models....very interesting and I think I am hooked on this board now !

Snowfan

Kippure

mike65 wrote: »

The max/min temp charts on wetterzentral make grim viewing.

None of this in a reliable time frame, if any thing its going to be always 7 days out or 10 days out. We need a huge upgrade to bring this forward. I,d want to see over the next 6 runs a huge upgrade regarding what happens this friday, If everything shifts west by a couple of hundred miles, we,re in the money.

At the moment we are under a south east airflow more a less, 850,s around zero. You just have to look out your window to see the cold and frost. We are in a cold period now up to the next 3 days, thats as far as im calling it.

ninebeanrows

A fine set of GFS Ensembles

Supercell

All eyes on that channel low modelled on for next Monday night, slight changes in position of that will make massive changes to our weather here, one to watch in upcoming runs I think.

SpitfireIV

Ye are all being fierce quiet lads! :pac: How are the model looking today thus far?

MUSEIST

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Ye are all being fierce quiet lads! :pac: How are the model looking today thus far?

HA



Not good:mad:

danni2

Well the 12z is bad, looks like the atlantic will take over:mad:

Snowbie

Not good sums it. So the models are back on track as from today and the people on their christmas holiday controlling the GFS is over? Well then oh dear.

According to the GFS 12Z, not even cold let alone very cold air comes over us or UK. The stubborn HP cell is stuck over us with no retro to Iceland or GL and the Atlantic undercuts this and breaks through into the 1st week of January.

Awaiting the ECM to roll out, but if this too keeps the GFS theme well it will not look good that it's just at reliable timeframe.

200motels

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Ye are all being fierce quiet lads! :pac: How are the model looking today thus far?

Here are the latest models.