Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009

danni2

nacho libre wrote: »

well it seems the showers will be confined to coastal counties. Hopefully, some will pentrate futher inland,though. i think later tonight or tomorrow morning maybe our best bet.

Yes but will it be cold enough for snow if the showers do make it inland??

Evelyn did not mention snow in the rte forecast

nacho libre

danni2 wrote: »

Yes but will it be cold enough for snow if the showers do make it inland??

Evelyn did not mention snow in the rte forecast

well, according to the radio forecast at five to 12 there will only be snow over high ground.

i never liked that O Shea guy anyway:pac:

Snowaddict

Yes, indeed the charts above are actually quite disgusting IMO.
Quite a bleak outlook for Xmas day at the moment.
No doubt about that, lets hope it changes though.

j1979p

Unfortunately, I can't see any snow for Ireland right through to New Years based on some of the long range GFS models. Hopefully model parameters are very unstable so this situation might be changed quickly with a few more runs!

mike65

Exellent



Sorry kids but us grown ups want to be warm not shovelling snow!

Deep Easterly

Mike65 should be thrown to the Lions for coming on here endorsing a chart like that. I am all for free speech, free expression and topless/pink protests. But here I draw the line.

To the gallows with you..:D:D

nilhg

mike65 wrote: »

Exellent

[img#]http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/Rtavn2161.png[/img]

Sorry kids but us grown ups want to be warm not shovelling snow!

I think it was Mundy that had a song for charts like that, I think it was called



July

darc

Snowbie wrote: »

Danno pretty much sums it up. 10C widely but as high as 13C maybe a 14C in places according to this run.

So this means that this year we can stick our fingers up at the Bondi Beach crowd down under!!! Get the SUN CREAM out - book your Barbie place on Dollymount strand, avoid the supermarket rush and buy your Ice cream now! . Turkey Burgers for Dinner!

darc

dedon wrote: »

Paddy Power are paying out on it being a white Christmas already. They have said their sources have told them its going to happen.

In the Examiner today

Pure marketing.

They pay out £100,000 to approx. 5000 punters who all had small bets. They hope thousands more will think that a white christmas is a "sure bet" and they will all put thier 20 / 30 quid on it at 2/1 - 4/1. Lo & behold, Christmas passes without a smidgen of the white stuff & Paddy Power keeps all the new best placed!

Of course, the press stories give untold publicity to PP.

Fair play to them & their markeing guys.

mike65

Break out the factor 50



I should note this is a "live" panel so changes by the day

Thats only 2c warmer than today Mike..

But hey ...see where those minus ones and minus two's are? Thats where I'm headed actually on the day of that chart It should be seasonal

TheGreenGiant

here's a little something that I thought was interesting: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7786060.stm

mike65

(cue arguments regarding global warming etc!)

arctictree

A lovely deep sourced easterly developing on the GFS 06z in FI.

Black Briar would be happy with this one (not saying that it will happen but just a comment on the charts!)

A

kerry1960

Amateur Weatherman Michael Gallagher on Morning Ireland , forecasting a Green Christmas .

However Mr Gallagher a postman from Donegal goes on to predict a harsh Winter , Deep Easterly anyone

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/

Snowaddict

I just had to post these charts everyone.
Of course this is FI, of course this is subject to pitfalls... But just look at those charts. :eek::eek:

Country Wide Snow Risk a few days after Xmas.



Upper Temps of -10 right over Ireland.



And at the end of the run, a major cold incursion about to come from the Northeast...



I'm not by any means saying that these charts will materialse, but they are in tandom with the opinions of several independent forecasters regarding the pots Xmas and New Year period.... But as ever, they are in FI, and this run was somewhat of a cold outlier in deep FI, but not by a huge amount either..

SA.

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 00z run at 216hrs:



some cold air on the continent too. Will it get this far? will these charts materialise at all?

I hope to God they do.

Snowaddict

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF 00z run at 216hrs:

some cold air on the continent too. Will it get this far? will these charts materialise at all?

I hope to God they do.

I second that DE. I mean, there would be the potential for a 1962/63 cold and wintry type outbreak if these various charts did come off.

But, as of yet, I'm not too excited, because its still about 9 days out or so before the cold arrives according to ECM and GFS. This could drastically change but I've got a feeling that this time, we just might see something memorable for the very end of this year and into the first 10 days or so of Jan....

You'd never know, it may just happen.

Supercell

mike65 wrote: »

Exellent



Sorry kids but us grown ups want to be warm not shovelling snow!

Lol...that chart is close to something..interesting

asdasd

Lol...that chart is close to something..interesting

You people are so cryptic sometimes :-)

Has the reading of these charts been explained in a thread, a sticky? From what I see there there is a high pressure morht east of ( but affecting) ireland, warm temps ( at least at high level), seems like southerly winds etc. So I would think mild.

I guess I dont get the intricies. Is there an inversion? ( I know what that is just how can it be surmised from the chart).

cian1500ww

Well seeing as this has been quite a cold year and the sun's activity is at very low it reminds me of some of the conditions that led to some of the coldest winters ever. Not saying this winter will be record breaking but it could be a cold snap especially with these latest charts. I'm a very optimistic guy though

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

Amateur Weatherman Michael Gallagher on Morning Ireland , forecasting a Green Christmas .

However Mr Gallagher a postman from Donegal goes on to predict a harsh Winter , Deep Easterly anyone

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/

Yeah I heard that.
Remind me what he said about the strange behaviour of the birds again?

Snow addict-the FI is lovely-I knew it had to be your posts when I scrolled up :

I'm afraid we will be let down though...

For a sober reflection have a look at this thread from january 2007...
We all got so excited only for it all to disappear for the FI dreaming it was and only a few days out it disappeared too.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055034256&page=6

So caution peoples

Snowaddict

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah I heard that.
Remind me what he said about the strange behaviour of the birds again?

Snow addict-the FI is lovely-I knew it had to be your posts when I scrolled up :

I'm afraid we will be let down though...

For a sober reflection have a look at this thread from january 2007...
We all got so excited only for it all to disappear for the FI dreaming it was and only a few days out it disappeared too.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055034256&page=6

So caution peoples

Yes, thats me Black Briar, ever the optimist . I would completely agree with the words of caution, and those charts are of course in FI... The only encouraging bit for me is that several independent forecasters in the UK are forecasting a colder oubreak after Xmas and into the new year. Either way, we should know within the next 10 - 20 days.

But as ever, caution is definately advised, as I mentioned above in earlier posts.

SA.

j1979p

It's a bit far out from the latest GFS but it seems to indicate that high pressure builds up around Northern Europe bringing easterly winds starting around the 27th and getting stronger and progressively colder through the New Year. Could be the long anticipated East Coast snow if there's any precipitation in it.

I'll let other's post the graphics!

Snowaddict

Well a bit early, but the signs are promising. I would put 30% on this colder evolution occuring if things continue to trend in the same manner over the next few days.

Nothing can be in any way certain this far out. However, as I stated in another thread earlier, many independent forecasters are suggesting this colder outbreak to begin shortly after Xmas and to intensify through the New Year.

The outlook is promising, but still in the dreaded FI. Either way though, when you see a chart like this, be it T+360, it is still quite impressive (Although the odds of it coming off as below are highly unlikely so far out yet).

Encouraging, but too far out to be confident about yet IMO. :cool:

j1979p

I just think it is strange that the GFS model departed so quickly from what it was saying for the past week. Namely, that mucky mild weather would be dominating between Xmas and New Year. There was no hope at all yesterday and now it's looking promising.

I guess this is why no matter how bad the models look, always have faith that they will change

Snowaddict

j1979p wrote: »

I just think it is strange that the GFS model departed so quickly from what it was saying for the past week. Namely, that mucky mild weather would be dominating between Xmas and New Year. There was no hope at all yesterday and now it's looking promising.

I guess this is why no matter how bad the models look, always have faith that they will change

I've been saying this with a while now.... That I feel there could be a colder outbreak... I'm still not convinced though.

I'd advise everyone to take a look at TWO and Netweather. The forums are in absolute meltdown, because the latest GFS run shows a snow risk for St. Stephen's day and night in the east... Although at this range, nothing is still certain.

j1979p

Snowaddict wrote: »

I've been saying this with a while now.... That I feel there could be a colder outbreak... I'm still not convinced though.

I'd advise everyone to take a look at TWO and Netweather. The forums are in absolute meltdown, because the latest GFS run shows a snow risk for St. Stephen's day and night in the east... Although at this range, nothing is still certain.

Stephen's day isn't really that far out for a long range model (9 days), but I didn't see anything interesting for the 26th on GFS for the past week. Must be a very transient? This is also predicted for UK only is it?

Snowaddict

j1979p wrote: »

Stephen's day isn't really that far out for a long range model (9 days), but I didn't see anything interesting for the 26th on GFS for the past week. Must be a very transient? This is also predicted for UK only is it?

Nope, its not that far. No, for eastern Ireland too on St Stephen's Night, as shown in the chart below. However, extreme caution is advised because this is only one run on one model (GFS), which has been a bit all over the place lately. What I will say is though, that the potential is there for something very interesting post Xmas and well into the new year. Whether this potential will be realised, remains to be seen. The latest GFS operational run shows a classic Scandanavian high, followed by a Greenland high in deep FI.

We must be very cautious at the moment, because things can change very quickly, but there is good potential there for a severe wintry outbreak after Xmas and into the new year. But I repeat, at the moment, although models are realising this potential for deep FI, IMO its still only potential.

Below is the chart for St Stephen's night, shows quite a risk for the east coast. Exteme caution is advised though as this is subject to change with every run. In conclusion however, the outlook is very promising at the moment.

Snow risk chart for St Stephen's Night: (GFS 12Z 17 Dec 2008)

Snowbie

Threads merged.
There is already two threads for model watching.

In fact 26th (St Stephens day) is miles away. This thread will suffice untill a more reliable time frame occurs for possible snow.
It looks nice but it really is only one run. Lets hope for more after all it is my birthday and be nice to see snow on the 26th.

If an easterly does push through, i would not get over excited as the GFS is overplaying the cold. There is no cold been tapped into at all as the air in eastern Europe/Russia is considerably mild atm. Sure Spain has got more snow than some eastern parts of late.