The Playoffs Whos through and who'll make it

eagle eye

We were starting to discuss this in the gameweek 14 thread and I think its time to get this one up and running.

I'll put up the stats here and who are already through and who looks certain to advance at this stage.


As we are right now the seedings are looking like this.

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12-1) Divisional winners and best record in football at this late stage but with a tough end to their schedule, they play the Steelers and Colts in their last two games, if the Steelers go unbeaten to the end of the regular season, they must beat the Colts and Texans to hold on to the no.1 spot
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) Lead their division by one game from the Ravens who they play next and if they win that and beat the Titans they could still be no.1 seeds
3. Denver Broncos (8-5) Look certain to win their division.
4. New York Jets (8-5) Lead their division but this one goes right down to the wire. Three teams in contention. Their season finishes with a home game against the Bills, away to the Bengals and then the Dolphins in what could be playoffs decider in their last game, its at home.
5. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) Cannot win their division but have improved immensely as the season draws to a close, look certain to make the playoffs.
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) Have a huge game next week against the Steelers, a win their and they are pretty certain to be in the playoffs and in with a chance of winning the division also, a loss could be catastrophic.

The Contenders:

New England Patriots: (8-5) Their last three games are away to Buffalo and Oakland and home to the Cardinals. Need to win all three to make it. Can still win their division and move up as high as no.3 seeds.
Miami Dolphins: (8-5) Last three games are home against the 49ers, and then away to Kansas, if they win them both they could end up in a divisional playoff last game away to the Jets.

The Outsiders:

Buffalo Bills: (7-6) Need a miracle to make it with their divisional losses.

San Diego Chargers: (5-8) Need to win their last three and hope that the Broncos lose their last three to make it. Another miracle required.


NFC

1. New York Giants: (11-2) Divisional winners and almost certain no.1 seeds.
2. Carolina Panthers: (10-3) Beat Tampa Bay last night to take the lead in the NFC South. This team have excellent at home all season, their three losses coming on the road. They play Denver next followed by two tough away games at New Orleans and then at the Giants.
3. Minnesota Vikings: (8-5) Have come from a bad start to lead their division by one from the Bears. Not certain to make it yet but in position to win their division.
4. Arizona Cardinals: (8-5) Divisional winners in the NFC West/Worst Division
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (9-4) Swapped places with Panthers last night but making the playoffs is in their own hands Still have every chance of winning their division as they play at Atlanta next, followed by two home games against the Chargers and the Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys: (8-5) Just in the playoff picture but not certain to make it by any means other than winning their last three games.

The Contenders:

Atlanta Falcons: (8-5) With an identical record to the Cowboys they can do it if they win their last three but it will be tough having to face the Bucs and Vikings in two of their last three. Can still win their division but its unlikely.
Philadelphia Eagles: (7-5-1) Their unlikely win against the Giants last night kept them in the picture. That tie game could end up being huge if things go their way over the remaining games.
Chicago Bears: (7-6) Can still win their division and still in with a shot at a wildcard also, they play the Saints, Green Bay and Houston in their last three.
New Orleans: (7-6) If only they had a defense, they would probably be favourites for the Superbowl. They still have a shot to make it but its unlikely at this stage.
Washington Redskins: (7-6) Have got poorer over the last couple of weeks and pretty much blown their chances of making the playoffs but still alive with three weeks remaining.

Playoff extra notes



AFC Playoff tiebreakers

* N.Y. Jets earns the AFC East division lead along with the No. 4 seed based on head-to-head against New England and Miami (2-1 vs. 2-2 for Patriots and 1-2 for Dolphins).
* Denver earns the No. 3 seed based on head-to-head over the N.Y. Jets (1-0).
* Indianapolis earns the No. 5 seed based on head-to-head over Baltimore (1-0).

NFC Playoff tiebreakers


* Minnesota earns the No. 3 seed based on conference record over Arizona (6-3 to Cardinals' 6-4).
* Dallas earns the No. 6 seed based on conference record over Atlanta (6-4 to Falcons' 5-4).

AFC Teams eliminated from playoff contention

* Cincinnati (Week 12), Kansas City (Week 13), Oakland (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 14), Jacksonville (Week 14), Houston (Week 14)

NFC Teams eliminated from playoff contention

* Detroit (Week 11), St. Louis (Week 12), Seattle (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14)

Hazys

Even though the Pats have a harder job of winning the AFC East, i think they'll do it. I can see us losing to the Cardinals...their passing game vs the worst secondary in the league, but beat the Raiders and Bills. So Pats will be either 10-6 or 11-5. I think its win AFC East or bust, we prob wont beat the Ravens by 2 games in the run in

I feel the Jets will show who they really are in the next 3 weeks and lose 2 games. So they'll be 9-7.

That leaves the Dolphins and I have to pick the Pats over the Dolphins.

Its a tough task for the Pats to make it but they can do it.

brennaldo

very informative from eagle eye. for the AFC it has to be indianapolis. Still think either ravens, pats or dolphins could take it and for the NFC i think it gonna be the cowboys and falcons. (but i think the eagles are right in there)

ReacherCreature

Terrific post there eagle eye.

Patriots should get a win over Raiders and Bills.

Can't see them containing Warner. He'll tear our defense apart - no question.

I'd be happy reaching the post-season, beyond that, I'm not remaining optimistic!

bruschi

whats the story if Miami and NE win their last 3 games? They'll be level on wins, but how does the divisional breakdown look? They'd both be 2-2, so I suppose it'll be conference standings. must go check that.

Arizona have yet to win a game on the East coast too, and it'll be a cold cold game in Foxboro so while they have a great passing game, other factors do come into play and they have the divison wrapped up, and would likely rest starters.

tallaghtoutlaws

bruschi wrote: »

whats the story if Miami and NE win their last 3 games? They'll be level on wins, but how does the divisional breakdown look? They'd both be 2-2, so I suppose it'll be conference standings. must go check that.

Arizona have yet to win a game on the East coast too, and it'll be a cold cold game in Foxboro so while they have a great passing game, other factors do come into play and they have the divison wrapped up, and would likely rest starters.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

ReacherCreature

bruschi wrote: »

whats the story if Miami and NE win their last 3 games? They'll be level on wins, but how does the divisional breakdown look? They'd both be 2-2, so I suppose it'll be conference standings. must go check that.

Arizona have yet to win a game on the East coast too, and it'll be a cold cold game in Foxboro so while they have a great passing game, other factors do come into play and they have the divison wrapped up, and would likely rest starters.

Actually good point there. Would be dead handy if we could get a win over the last three teams.

tallaghtoutlaws

1 Sep 07 KC 10 @ NE 17
2 Sep 14 NE 19 @ NYJ 10
3 Sep 21 MIA 38 @ NE 13
4 Bye
5 Oct 05 NE 30 @ SF 21
6 Oct 12 NE 10 @ SD 30
7 Oct 20 DEN 7 @ NE 41
8 Oct 26 STL 16 @ NE 23
9 Nov 02 NE 15 @ IND 18
10 Nov 09 BUF 10 @ NE 20
11 Nov 13 NYJ 34 @ NE
12 Nov 23 NE 48 @ MIA
13 Nov 30 PIT 33 @ NE 10
14 Dec 07 NE 24 @ SEA 21
15 Dec 14 NE @ Raiders
16 Dec 21 ARI @ NE
17 Dec 28 NE @ Buff

1 Sep 07 NYJ 20 @ MIA 14
2 Sep 14 MIA 10 @ ARI 31
3 Sep 21 MIA 38 @ NE 13
4 Bye
5 Oct 05 SD 10 @ MIA 17
6 Oct 12 MIA 28 @ HOU 29
7 Oct 19 BAL 27 @ MIA 13
8 Oct 26 BUF 16 @ MIA 25
9 Nov 02 MIA 26 @ DEN 17
10 Nov 09 SEA 19 @ MIA 21
11 Nov 16 OAK 15 @ MIA 17
12 Nov 23 NE 48 @ MIA 28
13 Nov 30 MIA 16 @ STL 12
14 Dec 07 MIA 16 @ BUF 3
15 Dec 14 SF @ MIA
16 Dec 21 MIA @ KC
17 Dec 28 MIA @ NYJ

2 Way Tie Lets say Fins and Pats win 3 and Jets Dont.

RED = Against Each other step 1
BLUE = Division Wins
GREEN = Common Games

Ok say Both Fins and Pats beat Buffalo Twice that makes

Step 1: Fins 1-1 and Pats 1-1 against each other
Step 2: Fins 3-2 and Pats 4-2 Fins still have Jets Left in Division games.
Step 3: NE 5-1 with 2 to play, Fins 4-2 with 2 to play against common opposition.


If the Fins beat NYJ it goes to step 3 if notthen Pats get it on wins in Division. If it goes to Step 3 NE get it as they will go 7-1 against Common opposition and Fins will go 6-2 if both win their last 3 games. But

Hazys

bruschi wrote: »

whats the story if Miami and NE win their last 3 games? They'll be level on wins, but how does the divisional breakdown look? They'd both be 2-2, so I suppose it'll be conference standings. must go check that.

Arizona have yet to win a game on the East coast too, and it'll be a cold cold game in Foxboro so while they have a great passing game, other factors do come into play and they have the divison wrapped up, and would likely rest starters.

Bascially the Pats have to win all 3 remaining games to make the playoffs (even that might not be enough, an 11-5 team might not make the playoffs)

If the Steelers go 11-5, Pats lose because they beat us during the season.

If the Colts go 11-5, Pats lose because they beat us during the season.

If the Ravens go 11-5, Pats lose because they have a better division record.

If the Jets go 11-5, Pats lose out because they have a better division record.

If the Dolphins go 11-5, Pats lose out because even tho we have the same division record, they have a better conference record.

So Pats have to win the final 3 games and hope a couple of results go our way. Good thing is the Jets and Dolphins play each other in week 17 so the winner of that game has hopefully lost in the past 2 weeks and the Pats have won 3 (dont ask me what happens if that game is a tie). We have to win the AFC East.

Its not likely the Steelers will lose 3 from 3, or the Ravens losing 2 from 3 or the Colts 2 from 3 especally against their last 3 teams so a wildcard spot is improbable

Karlusss

bruschi wrote: »

Arizona have yet to win a game on the East coast too, and it'll be a cold cold game in Foxboro so while they have a great passing game, other factors do come into play and they have the divison wrapped up, and would likely rest starters.

So you're saying the fabulous Matt Leinart can get back to the business of throwing the ball to the other team?

bruschi

this seems to have turned into a how the heck do the Patriots make the playoffs thread, but sure I aint complaining.

From the good guys at ask pfw weekly:

First things first, the Patriots need to win each of their three remaining games to maintain realistic hopes of playing in January. Although, even winning out doesn’t guarantee the team a spot in the postseason as New England could still be the first-ever 11-5 team to miss the playoff party since the current six-team format began in 1990.

Second, the Jets and Dolphins can’t both win out as they meet in the final week of the season at Giants Stadium. So one of them is assured of having at least six losses.

Both New York and Miami would win the division over the Patriots with a final 11-5 record.

The Jets (games left hosting the Bills, at the Seahawks and hosting the Dolphins) due to a potential 5-1 division record compared to a potential 4-2 mark for New England.

The Dolphins (games left hosting the 49ers and traveling to the Chiefs and Jets) would take a two-way division tie with the Patriots thanks to a potential 8-4 conference mark that would beat a possible 7-5 New England record in the AFC.

If the Patriots do end up losing the division via the tiebreaker they’d then turn to Wild Card hopes. The Colts and Ravens currently fill those slots with 9-4 records. New England would need Indy to lose two of its final three (Detroit, at Jacksonville and Tennessee) because the Colts hold the tiebreaker in any two-way, Wild Card tie with the Patriots thanks to their Nov. 2 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in the head-to-head matchup.

Baltimore (Steelers, at Cowboys, Jaguars) also holds the potential Wild Card tiebreaker over the Patriots thanks to a two-game lead over New England (7-3 as opposed to 5-5) in conference record at this point.

If the Patriots win out they could still get in by winning either the AFC East, assuming both the Jets and Dolphins lose at least once, or winning the Wild Card if either Baltimore or Indy loses two of its last three to finish with six loses. A lot could happen over the next three weeks.

The Patriots don’t have the luxury of unilaterally controlling their own fate at this point. But they are still alive and that’s more than a lot of teams can say right now

so basically, we have to rely on the Jets and Miami losing for us to have a chance of playoffs.

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

If the Dolphins go 11-5, Pats lose out because even tho we have the same division record, they have a better conference record.

This conference record wont come into to play until after the Divisional record and common games do first and right now the Pats stronger than the Fins. See my guide its taken from the horses mouth.

Scenario the Jets go 2-1 in their final games and both Pats and Fins go 3-0 this would leave both Fins and Pats on a 4-2 record int heir Division. And Pats 7-1 and Fins 6-2 on Common opposition and both these factors out weight the conference first when it comes to a two way tie.

tallaghtoutlaws

bruschi wrote: »

this seems to have turned into a how the heck do the Patriots make the playoffs thread, but sure I aint complaining.

From the good guys at ask pfw weekly:



so basically, we have to rely on the Jets and Miami losing for us to have a chance of playoffs.

Ideally Jets losing to Fins and us to win 3.

Look how it satnds right now. The system I explained is already in play with the Pats and Fins:

New York Jets 8 5 0 .615 354 292 62 42 4-2 4-3 3-1 .750 6-4 .600 2-1 2L 3-2

New England Patriots 8 5 0 .615 301 276 25 30 4-3 4-2 3-2 .600 5-5 .500 3-0 1W 3-2

Miami Dolphins 8 5 0 .615 269 260 9 30 4-3 4-2 3-2 .600 6-4 .600 2-1 2W 4-1

Hazys

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

This conference record wont come into to play until after the Divisional record and common games do first and right now the Pats stronger than the Fins. See my guide its taken from the horses mouth.

Scenario the Jets go 2-1 in their final games and both Pats and Fins go 3-0 this would leave both Fins and Pats on a 4-2 record int heir Division. And Pats 7-1 and Fins 6-2 on Common opposition and both these factors out weight the conference first when it comes to a two way tie.

Sorry your right. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Weird how in a division tie-breaker its common before conference and in a wildcard its the opposite.

Chucky the tree

Fingers crossed the my boys hand the Pats down a beating to this week but unlikely. The panthers should make the play-offs for definite now.

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

Sorry your right. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Weird how in a division tie-breaker its common before conference and in a wildcard its the opposite.

Yeah thats what I thought when I read it.

Hazys

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Yeah thats what I thought when I read it.

What if the Pats finish 11-5, Dolphins finish 11-5 and the Ravens finish 11-5. (Jets 10-5, Colts 12-4, Steelers 12-4)

Pats would win AFC East over Dolphins because of a better common record but the Dolphins had a better conference record.

Ravans would win the last wildcard spot over Dolphins because of a better conference record but the Dolphins had a better common record.

That would seriously suck if you were a Dolphins fan.

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

What if the Pats finish 11-5, Dolphins finish 11-5 and the Ravens finish 11-5. (Jets 10-5, Colts 12-4, Steelers 12-4)

Pats would win AFC East over Dolphins because of a better common record but the Dolphins had a better conference record.

Ravans would win the last wildcard spot over Dolphins because of a better conference record but the Dolphins had a better common record.

That would seriously suck if you were a Dolphins fan.

Honestly as a Pats fan im not worried I think Fins fans would be the more pissed off. imagine it going from Sh*t last season to within an inch of the playoffs but pipped by mad tie breaker rules. Us Pats fans hope we get there but ye know with a depleted Defense and no Tom Brady it was always going to be an uphill struggle. Good to see Matt Cassell do a very nice job but we have no answer for our D with the age of them and the injuries. Lets hope the Cards suck balls in the depths of winter in foxborough.

bruschi

dont know what to think now, the nfl tiebreaker clearly says its on common games, but yet I've read on three different reports that if the Pats tie with either Jets or 'Phins that they will lose out as the other 2 win the tiebreaker. just have to wait and see I suppose.

tallaghtoutlaws

bruschi wrote: »

dont know what to think now, the nfl tiebreaker clearly says its on common games, but yet I've read on three different reports that if the Pats tie with either Jets or 'Phins that they will lose out as the other 2 win the tiebreaker. just have to wait and see I suppose.

Nah ignore it. Sure look at the standing now. The pats are on top of the fins. If we tie with the Jets yes we will most likely settle for second but dont forget they play the fins which could change everything. Right now on equal record its Jet Pats Fins. Ideally Pats need to go 3-0 and Jets 2-1 in final games and by tie breaking even if Fins go 3-0 We top the group.

Look at it this way its impossible for all 3 to go 3-1 right now. As Fins play Jets in final game.

SantryRed

If the Panthers win out they become number one seeds in the NFC.

They have won all their games at home this year. Could see them in the Superbowl.

Spongey1975

Hazys wrote: »

Sorry your right. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Weird how in a division tie-breaker its common before conference and in a wildcard its the opposite.

Would have thought this is because wild card tiebreakers are usually between teams in different divisions which means there will be feck all common games as opposed to 12 conference games

Morrisseeee

It would be interesting (but painful) if the Broncos lost their next 2 games (entirely possible the way they are SO reliable !) and the Chargers WIN their next 2, as they meet each other in the last game !!! (ahhhh, say it aint so !:eek:)

SantryRed

With Hillis out injured and the Panthers and Bills in your next two games that's quite possible:pac:

Chucky the tree

So if the Phins beat the Chiefs and the Jets beat the seahawks the pats can only make the play-offs through the WC? Tough game for the Ravens @ the boys next week.

eagle eye

Updated

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12-2) Divisional winners and best record in football at this late stage but with a tough end to their schedule, they host the Steelers in their next game in what amounts to a no.1 seed match.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) Locked up their division this week and play the Titans for the AFC no.1 seeding next weekend.
3. New York Jets (9-5) After looking certain losers with under 4 minutes remaining the Jets find themselves winning and moving up to No.3 seeds. They travel to Seattle next week.
4. Denver Broncos (8-6) Dropped to No.4 seeds and not certain to win the division just yet.
5. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) Not their best performance of the season but they got it done against the Lions and have pretty much locked up the no.5 seeding.
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) After a huge last minute loss to the Steelers the Ravens now must win their last two games to hang on to the last wild card spot.

The Contenders:

New England Patriots: (9-5) Won big against Oakland but they have to depend on other results to make it at this stage.
Miami Dolphins: (9-5) Travel to Kansas next weekend and if they win it sets up a divisional playoff game against the Jets in the final week.

The Outsider:

San Diego Chargers: (6-8) Need to win their last two and hope that the Broncos lose their last two to make it. Away to the Bucs next.


NFC

1. New York Giants: (11-3) Divisional winners, but the faltering Giants face Carolina in a No.1 seed matchup at the Meadowlands next weekend.
2. Carolina Panthers: (11-3) Have put themselves in position to make No.1 for the playoffs. With their home record this season, they are unbeaten, that would be huge. They will have to beat the Giants away though.
3. Minnesota Vikings: (9-5) A huge win over the Cardinals the weekend has shown just how much this team has improved, cannot do any better than no.3 seeds but right in the Superbowl picture now. Still only one game ahead of the Bears though.
4. Arizona Cardinals: (8-6) Divisional winners in the NFC West/Worst Division
5. Dallas Cowboys: (9-5) A big win over the Giants makes them almost certain to make the playoffs.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (9-5) Just in the playoff picture but not certain to make it by any means other than winning their last two games. Can still mathematically win their divison.

The Contenders:

Atlanta Falcons: (9-5) Still in the hunt but facing a tough time, they play at Minnesota next.
Philadelphia Eagles: (7-5-1) Their unlikely win against the Giants last week kept them in the picture. That tie game could end up being huge if things go their way over the remaining games. Play the Browns tonight.
Chicago Bears: (8-6) Can still win their division and still in with a shot at a wildcard also, they play Green Bay and Houston in their last two.

The Outsider:

Washington Redskins: (7-6) Still mathematically in the picture.

Playoff extra notes



AFC Playoff tiebreakers

NY Jets earn the AFC East division title and No. 3 seed based on head-to-head over New England and Miami (2-1 to Patriots' 2-2 and Dolphins' 1-2)

Baltimore earns the No. 6 spot based on head-to-head over Miami (1-0).

Miami earns the higher seed in division based on conference record over New England (6-4 to Patriots' 6-5).

NFC Playoff tiebreakers


N.Y. Gaints earn the top seed based on conference record over Carolina (8-2 to Panthers' 7-3).

Dallas earns the No. 5 seed based on head-to-head over Tampa Bay (1-0).

Tampa Bay earns the No. 6 seed based on conference record over Atlanta (8-4 to Falcons' 6-4).

AFC Teams eliminated from playoff contention

Cincinnati (Week 12), Kansas City (Week 13), Oakland (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 14), Jacksonville (Week 14), Houston (Week 14), Buffalo (Week 15)

NFC Teams eliminated from playoff contention

Detroit (Week 11), St. Louis (Week 12), Seattle (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14), Green Bay (Week 15), New Orleans (Week 15)

Hazys

For the Patriots to make it to the playoffs:

They need to win their next two &

A) Jets lose next week then beat Miami
or
Miami loses next week then beats the Jets
or
C) Jets and Miami both lose next week
or
D) Jets and Miami tie in week 17
or
E) Ravens lose one of their 2 next games

Its a sad situation for the Pats...I blame JP Losman

But they have had a terriffic season with all the injurys so i wont be so disappointed if they dont make it but I'll puke if the Jets win the AFC East they are absolute rubbish

LolaLuv

Hoping the Steelers make it through this year. They're looking good!

davyjose

Hazys wrote: »

But they have had a terriffic season with all the injurys so i wont be so disappointed if they dont make it but I'll puke if the Jets win the AFC East they are absolute rubbish

Either way, if things stay as they are, I'd have my money on Baltimore to beat the winners of the AFC East. Can't see the Jets lose this one though.

eagle eye

I have to say, and I have not looked at any Superbowl betting markets but for me the Steeler are now favourites. Of course a win against the Titans next week in very important, as the last thing they need is to lose there next week and potentially face the same opponents at the same venue again.

Still the Giants are falling to pieces at the moment and Carolina look like they could take the no.1 seed in the NFC.

I'd go with the Steelers at the moment and give the ever dangerous Peyton Manning and the Colts an outside chance. I think we get back to normality with an AFC Superbowl winner this year.