Frost, Ice and Possible Snow Showers this Weekend (13th-16th Dec 08)

Snowbie

@JS.

According to the hi res GFS, snow is very unlikely at lower levels in the west and SW.
Above 400m there is only a 45- 50% chance. If anything this is a downgrade but i'm not convinced this was ever going to materialise in the first place.

I will change your thread title as it is misleading to possible snow in west and SW from 'possible major snow event Saturday' as the air is cold sourced but polar maritime it still will be chilly and with precip around a chance is there.

A major snow event is only such when snow falls and settles at lower levels. Mountainous areas are always at risk from major snow events and is somewhat a re-occurance time after time.

Also for future reference, if you can link to an image and describe what you see instead of most here posting links for you it be great. Use the [IMG][/IMG] tags to insert an image

nacho libre

from met.ie:
Temperatures through the weekend will only be in low single figures during the day and the showers (this next bit may or may not be factual;) ) will be of sleet or snow in most aeras, with significant accumulations likely. A spell of more general rain is likely to develop during Monday. The cold weather is then set to continue into the middle of next week, although it wont be quite as cold as the weekend.

so it looks like the wait for snow goes on:(

JanuarySnowstor

Dont agree with title change myself
12z upgrades both temp and ppn
Snow looks a certainty imo

Snowaddict

The latest GFS run is a an upgrade for snow potential for many parts at the weekend, I know Met Eireann have not mentioned anything much but I really though I should post these charts from the 12Z.
They are very interesting to say the least, GFS projecting snow depts of 5 and 6cm in several higher ground areas, within the snowline down to below 100m in eastern areas, this could be something to watch indeed.



And this chart:

ninebeanrows

I think i might throw up.

GFS shows heavy snow over much of Ireland Saturday night/ Sunday.

I might just get sick.. off out of the country for the weekend.

Snowaddict

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think i might throw up.

GFS shows heavy snow over much of Ireland Saturday night/ Sunday.

I might just get sick.. off out of the country for the weekend.

But Met Eireann have said nothing about it Weathercheck.

I'm still a bit skeptical to say the least, although there does seem to be quite a widespread and substantial risk going on the latest run, which is only 48 hours out from the timeframe.

ninebeanrows

Snowaddict wrote: »

But Met Eireann have said nothing about it Weathercheck.

I'm still a bit skeptical to say the least, although there does seem to be quite a widespread and substantial risk going on the latest run, which is only 48 hours out from the timeframe.

Yes of course it might change yet but i would say things are shaping up well for snow over Ireland this weekend.

Dewpoints/ Temperatures/850hpa temps/ Thicknesses all look favorable for snow.

I haven't being saying much as i had hoped it would edge on the other side of marginal but its edged on the snow side of marginal and it only 2 days away.

Obviously await the UKM and other outputs but i would expect warnings will be out tomorrow morning from the MET.

:eek::(

It's a little bit better than the earlier runs.
I'd bring the snow level down to 800ft asl on this one.
The precip if very heavy might bring it lower than that well inland.
Rain for coastal districts.

I must say I've a lack of faith in the GFS even at this short time out due to it's changing all the time!

ninebeanrows

Why arent you guys getting excited!

You have everything on your side, i'm not going be here for god sakes! It's gonna snow :pac::(

I want the snow to be on the ground come Monday afternoon.

Not often these charts play ball.

Snowaddict

Weathercheck wrote: »

Why arent you guys getting excited!

You have everything on your side, i'm not going be here for god sakes! It's gonna snow :pac::(

I want the snow to be on the ground come Monday afternoon.

Not often these charts play ball.

Weathercheck, you just read my mind posting that chart.

I've gone through all 20 perturbations and there is substantial agreement amongst all 20 perturbations of 850HPA's of at least -6, to even -8 over many parts of Ireland at the weekend.

Many of them also suggest snowfall as shown by Weathercheck.

I would give it 50% in favour at the moment, going on the 12Z GFS.

However, this is subject to change.

Supercell

Wow, what an upgrade!, here was me thinking not a snowballs chance in hell..and then here we are, lovely stuff!!

Snowaddict

Supercell wrote: »

Wow, what an upgrade!, here was me thinking not a snowballs chance in hell..and then here we are, lovely stuff!!

Do you think it will actually materialse Supercell?
I mean its a major upgrade for us, but it is only one run and has the peak potential been shown too early, 48 hrs ahead?

Supercell

Snowaddict wrote: »

Do you think it will actually materialse Supercell?
I mean its a major upgrade for us.

Well, it looks like i might see some snow falling, maybe even lying (30% risk I'd guestimate).
At sea level maybe a few hours of wet snow, cant really see any real cold that would allow for lying snow there. That said it is mid December, so who knows

patneve

looking at those charts I'd guess snow over 100-200 metres asl with mixed precipitation below

JanuarySnowstor

Should my title have been changed and downgraded i wonder ?
Latest fax laden with troughs.
If its Gerry on the tv tonight expect some sleeet on mountains

patneve

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Should my title have been changed and downgraded i wonder ?
Latest fax laden with troughs.
If its Gerry on the tv tonight expect some sleeet on mountains

one day we will get our revenge on gerry. One day he will predict some sleety rain, and the next day there will be a blizzard with 20 cm accumulations on the whole island...and everyone will laugh in his face:rolleyes:

MUSEIST

patneve wrote: »

one day we will get our revenge on gerry. One day he will predict some sleety rain, and the next day there will be a blizzard with 20 cm accumulations on the whole island...and everyone will laugh in his face:rolleyes:

ahhh thats a bit harsh:D

Supercell

I'm not holding my breath lads..unless that (imaginary) gaff up on Sally Gap comes on sale any time soon

Snowaddict

Supercell wrote: »

I'm not holding my breath lads..unless that (imaginary) gaff up on Sally Gap comes on sale any time soon

I very much agree with you there, although the maps on the 5.55pm forecast showed max temps of 5c and 3c for Sat and Sun respectively, with wintry showers, however the forecaster went no further than Friday...

JanuarySnowstor

Well Gerry didn't mention the word snow which is very odd for him
Looks like its JS against Met Eireann
Imo a disgraceful but typical forecast

Snowaddict

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well Gerry didn't mention the word snow which is very odd for him
Looks like its JS against Met Eireann
Imo a disgraceful but typical forecast

Well he didn't even go into detail for the weekend, which is very interesting in itself.

Furthermore, the Sat chart is now showing a temp of 3c as opposed to 5c an hour ago and 7c yesterday....

IMO, Gerry Murphy may dislike snow potential, but is airing on the side of caution for the moment.

However, as I said, the fact that he didn't do a detailed weekend forecast may suggest potential uncertainty still.

SA.:)

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well Gerry didn't mention the word snow which is very odd for him
Looks like its JS against Met Eireann
Imo a disgraceful but typical forecast

Play fair JS. By all means forecast away, but I will not tolerate any slagging off of met eireann forecasting methods or any of its forecasters from here on in. Another comment like that and I will become quite trigger happy..;)

JanuarySnowstor

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Play fair JS. By all means forecast away, but I will not tolerate any slagging off of met eireann forecasting methods or any of its forecasters from here on in. Another comment like that and I will become quite trigger happy..;)

Ok fair enough

ninebeanrows

ECM looks good for snow over Ireland Sunday AM

Danno

Midnight Saturday - Dublin Airport closed due to snowfall! - There, that should make WC extra happy! :P :P :P

Supercell

Danno wrote: »

Midnight Saturday - Dublin Airport closed due to snowfall! - There, that should make WC extra happy! :P :P :P

Lol, decisions decisions..
IMHO its still sleet/rain at sea level with sleet/snow on the mountains. Cold rain a distinct possibility at low levels (<150 metres)

ninebeanrows

No sorry that man is unreal!

He just can't say it, he really can't

Hail and Sleet showers, NO mention of snow on mountains even. He obviously has some issue with it.

Danno

The 18z run is starting to roll out now... will it, won't it?

ninebeanrows

Phew the Irish snow has moved to Cardiff :pac:

Trogdor

Danno wrote: »

The 18z run is starting to roll out now... will it, won't it?

Looks like a won't..