Well, bank recapitalisation is here

silverharp

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

The lack of control left us in this position, and frogs leap out of a warm pot.

the way I see it there has been an unholy alliance between big business and big gov. for decades the end of the process is some form of socialism lite or 3rd Reich economics without the storm troopers.

to take a non economic analogy, a fly by wire plane is always on the verge of crashing, it is only the quick thinking computers that can adjust and keep somthing that is fundamentally unstable flying. Statists are in the position that they think that can adjust the "Levers" and keep the economy going on in a stable manner. I dont buy it

Économiste Monétaire

dresden8 wrote: »

I digress, I realise I was over the top.

Only Union Leaders would be liquidated for the common good.

I realise the errors of my ways.

Commie scum.

It's a pity stupidity is not a reason for a perma-ban.

How am I "commie scum"?

dresden8

You're not.

Public sector Union leader's are.

But it's ok, Sam is going to lock them up.

SimpleSam06

silverharp wrote: »

the way I see it there has been an unholy alliance between big business and big gov. for decades the end of the process is some form of socialism lite or 3rd Reich economics without the storm troopers.

Well, if you think we're living in the third reich, theres not much more that can be said, really.

dresden8 wrote: »

Public sector Union leader's are.

But it's ok, Sam is going to lock them up.

Heh, why not, throw them in with the rest of the gangsters, they'll feel right at home.

dresden8

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Well, if you think we're living in the third reich, theres not much more that can be said, really.


.

You're the one who wants concentration camps for public servants.

Freak.

silverharp

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Well, if you think we're living in the third reich, theres not much more that can be said, really.

I said the END of the process , anyway you are the one that mentioned somewhere that at least they had built the Autobahn's. Do you want the job of benevolent dictator?

BenjAii

Interesting article in The Telegraph speculating that there are further huge losses for UK banks in 2009 due to commercial property write downs, possibly in the order of £70 billion, and necessitating further taxpayer bailouts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4000183/UK-banks-face-70bn-property-bombshell.html


Wonder if BOI & AIB will face the same dilemma ?

The_Minister

dresden8 wrote: »

Freak.

Infracted.

Personal Abuse is not permitted in this forum.

Économiste Monétaire

BenjAii wrote: »

Wonder if BOI & AIB will face the same dilemma ?

There was a recent paper, only just over a week ago, from the ECB on the state of commercial property markets; Ireland was not placed in the optimistic column, so to speak, if I recall correctly. I have no idea what the proportion of AIB and BOI's loan books are based on commercial property, but I would hazard a guess that it's a bleak outlook, yet further, for Anglo.

It's here for anyone who is interested.

Edit:Just for some, out of context, graphical amusement:

BenjAii

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

I have no idea what the proportion of AIB and BOI's loan books are based on commercial property, but I would hazard a guess that it's a bleak outlook, yet further, for Anglo.

I might have missed it, but am I right in saying none of the banks have disclosed the details of loans on their books ?

Given the risk they are putting tax payer money at, especially in the case of Anglo Irish, if that state of affairs is allowed to stand it is extraordinary.

I can see there is an argument that full disclosure at this time might invite even more catastrophe for them, but as the taxpayer is bailing them out with such vast sums we have every right to know; they are the ones placing us in vast peril if they end up taking write downs of this order on commercial property.

I can imagine as the government now effectively owns Anglo Irish it knows, but I haven't seen those details publically reported, and in the case of BOI/AIB - I haven't even come across any info that they have let anyone on behalf of the gov independently look at their books.

SimpleSam06

silverharp wrote: »

I said the END of the process , anyway you are the one that mentioned somewhere that at least they had built the Autobahn's. Do you want the job of benevolent dictator?

Um, the thought process here seems to be unholy alliance -> third reich -> dictatorship, after several pages of Rovian partisan talking points which have only emerged in the last few years. Its almost as good as the other genius talking about concentration camps. Enough.

Économiste Monétaire

BenjAii wrote: »

I might have missed it, but am I right in saying none of the banks have disclosed the details of loans on their books ?

Given the risk they are putting tax payer money at, especially in the case of Anglo Irish, if that state of affairs is allowed to stand it is extraordinary.

I can see there is an argument that full disclosure at this time might invite even more catastrophe for them, but as the taxpayer is bailing them out with such vast sums we have every right to know; they are the ones placing us in vast peril if they end up taking write downs of this order on commercial property.

I can imagine as the government now effectively owns Anglo Irish it knows, but I haven't seen those details publically reported, and in the case of BOI/AIB - I haven't even come across any info that they have let anyone on behalf of the gov independently look at their books.

I believe that the government already assigned PWC to go through their loan books--albeit, that was over a month ago. (I might be wrong on that one.) Even if we were to have the books completely open, would we be able to quantify possible losses accurately? Considering that losses will be self-reinforcing, when empty property accumulates in a dense area, it's difficult to allocate potential losses in an accurate manner. Possibly taking an arbitrary per cent write down, based on previous comparable situations, could be a better option.

Maybe your point was to view how reckless, so to speak, banks have been. Then assign greater values to banks that have been, relatively, more conservative, and risk averse, than their foolish compatriots in bailout land. That has some merit, but I believe it to be already clear that AIB and BOI, based on the three that have so far required state funds, hold the title of being systematically important to the economy; just a personal opinion. So, the popular view that Anglo is a (metaphorical) turd will hold either way. I doubt they (i.e. meaningful information) will be disclosed (fully) to the public--is that even really necessary? Other than to appease an angry public, wanting every available situation to bash Irish banks--but it's a safe bet that the government are already attempting to cipher through the books. Let's hope that occurs with a realistic, pragmatic mindset, rather than an aloof political one. Interesting times ahead, that's for definite.

Sure, we've already guaranteed liabilities... We'll end up paying in any scenario.

dresden8

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Um, the thought process here seems to be unholy alliance -> third reich -> dictatorship, after several pages of Rovian partisan talking points which have only emerged in the last few years. Its almost as good as the other genius talking about concentration camps. Enough.

Eh, what?

The_Minister

Unless you all want to be banned for being childish get back on topic.

If you want to discuss putting civil servants in concentration camps (I glanced back quickly but couldn't find that post), then do it in Politics, Humanities or After Hours, unless you want to discuss the economic aspect of exterminating the civil service.

silverharp

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

I believe that the government already assigned PWC to go through their loan books--albeit, that was over a month ago. (I might be wrong on that one.) Even if we were to have the books completely open, would we be able to quantify possible losses accurately? Considering that losses will be self-reinforcing, when empty property accumulates in a dense area, it's difficult to allocate potential losses in an accurate manner. Possibly taking an arbitrary per cent write down, based on previous comparable situations, could be a better option.

The mark to market is the elephant in the room. I guess it will be a step by step process to ratchet down book values to fair value. I know in AIB's case that when PWC carry out the AIB audit they will outsouce the valuation issues to an outside specialist consultancy. I cant imagine that there will be any incentive to prop up values for fear off being sued in the future
What we have yet to see either in the residential market or commercial market is large amount of forced sales, this should get the fair value process going.

dresden8

The_Minister wrote: »

Unless you all want to be banned for being childish get back on topic.

If you want to discuss putting civil servants in concentration camps (I glanced back quickly but couldn't find that post), then do it in Politics, Humanities or After Hours, unless you want to discuss the economic aspect of exterminating the civil service.

Post #72 Step 1 paragraph 2.

The_Minister

dresden8 wrote: »

Post #72 Step 1 paragraph 2.

He said prison not concentration camps. To conflate the two is childish.
There are several million Jewish ghosts glaring at you right now, and smacking their hands into their fists, because you don't get the difference.

I would assume that he was suggesting that if trade unionists start shutting down our electricity generators etc, their actions have such a severe effect on the populous that they must be prevented, in the same way that the Guards are not allowed strike, because the damage that that would cause would be huge.


And all this is irrelevant, because I told you all to get back to the main topic (

Bank Recapitalisation)

), and discuss 'concentration camps for civil servents' elsewhere if you must.
If you want to have an intelligent discussion on the matter, go to Humanities and ask when the right to strike can be curbed, and thrash out if the ESB or doctors or Gardai should be allowed strike or not.
Or go to AH and ask the same question.
Or even argue that a policy of decimation should be introduced in the civil service should be introduced if you really must.
But:
Don't. Do. It. In. This. Thread.

Économiste Monétaire

silverharp wrote: »

The mark to market is the elephant in the room. I guess it will be a step by step process to ratchet down book values to fair value. I know in AIB's case that when PWC carry out the AIB audit they will outsouce the valuation issues to an outside specialist consultancy. I cant imagine that there will be any incentive to prop up values for fear off being sued in the future
What we have yet to see either in the residential market or commercial market is large amount of forced sales, this should get the fair value process going.

Well, I was considering forward looking projections, rather than a snapshot in time, with an audit for a single firm, for a mark to market valuation (which I'm sure would not be pretty alone). I would wonder what the fair-value will be next year :eek: (i.e. what the average drop will be)

dresden8

The_Minister wrote: »

He said prison not concentration camps. To conflate the two is childish.
There are several million Jewish ghosts glaring at you right now, and smacking their hands into their fists, because you don't get the difference.

Just to clarify a point

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentration_camp#Concentration_camps

I know it's a wiki page but it does give the difference between a concentration camp and death camps.

Although the term "concentration camp" has become virtually indistinguishable from "death camp" in the popular mind, the two are not identical. The British continued to use the term concentration camp in its original meaning long after the collapse of the Third Reich, with quite possibly the last being the forced but relatively peaceful relocation of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese squatters from the edge of the Malayan Jungle to "New Villages" during the Malayan Emergency to choke supply and support off for the Malayan Communist Party.

Sam's other statements cannot be taken out of context with the other bile that is spewing out of his keyboard.

And yes, I know, I'm banned.

Next stop prison.

silverharp

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

Well, I was considering forward looking projections, rather than a snapshot in time, with an audit for a single firm, for a mark to market valuation (which I'm sure would not be pretty alone). I would wonder what the fair-value will be next year :eek: (i.e. what the average drop will be)

I came had across this piece about the UK , I cant imagine it would be any better here, and I would question a bottoming out in 2010 , I'd go for 2012 as more likely. I guess keeping track of occupancy will be an interesting stat to keep an eye on.

http://www.financialpost.com/money/your-money/Story.html?id=1106734

Commercial property in U.K. faces value crash
Up To 16% Decline

U. K. commercial properties, which have been falling since a peak in mid-2007, could lose up to another 16% in value in 2009 as the global economic downturn worsens, a Reuters survey showed.

That is about half the near 30% capital-value plunge likely to be seen in 2008, as some analysts forecast gradually loosening credit market conditions.

But brokers, fund managers and research houses approached by Reuters for the survey were reticent to make forecasts. Of the 14 approached, only four were confident enough to respond with a forecast.

"We are seeing signs of increased lending and the gap between property yields and interest rates is already proving attractive to some," said Julian Stocks, head of capital markets, England, at property advisor Jones Lang LaSalle.

JLL is predicting an 8.9% fall in commercial property values for 2009, and for values to be flat in 2010 leading to a 3.9% rebound in 2011.

Overall, forecasters see U. K. commercial properties dropping between 7.5% to 16.1% in 2009, with offices suffering the heaviest loss of 20% as the financial crisis brings further job cuts and bank consolidation.

Benchmark data from U. K.-based Investment Property Databank showed that commercial values fell 10% in 2007, and a further 22.6% in the first 11 months of 2008.

The fall in commercial rentals is predicted to be less severe, with respondents calling for a rental rate drop of between 7.3% and 12.5% in 2009.

"There are too many unknowns about the U. K., European, U. S. and global economies to allow for confident forecasts," said Keith Steventon, head of research at Atisreal, which predicts a 7.5 % to 12.5% loss in U. K. values.

As credit conditions remain squeezed in 2009, industry experts expect to see more real estate firms and property funds forced to put assets up for sale, giving cash-rich investors their choice of the best real estate.

"The 'grave dancers' with cash to invest may have a field day," said King Sturge, head of research Angus McIntosh.

"Forced sales will take capital values lower in the short term and by 2010 most markets should show total returns exceeding 5%," he said.

McIntosh also expects to see the emergence of a two-tier U. K. commercial market, in which prime properties producing steady rentals will start to recover in value by end-2009, while "secondary," unlet properties will keep falling until 2010.

Generally, experts expect industrial properties to hold up better than other segments, due to the relative resilience of rentals for industrial space.

"In terms of the best sector, our forecasts show industrials to be the best performer over 2009," said Kiran Raichura, senior research economist at real estate advisor Colliers.

"This makes intuitive sense anyway, as income returns on industrial units will be over 7.5% by the end of next year, compared to 6% to 6.5% for retail and offices, whilst capital growth will be fairly similar ... across the sectors," Mr. Raichura said

SimpleSam06

silverharp wrote: »

"In terms of the best sector, our forecasts show industrials to be the best performer over 2009," said Kiran Raichura, senior research economist at real estate advisor Colliers.

That makes perfect sense in the face of a weakening pound sterling and the export advantages it brings, but still, this

silverharp wrote: »

"The 'grave dancers' with cash to invest may have a field day," said King Sturge

Is a great sentence.

Time Magazine

dresden8 wrote: »

And yes, I know, I'm banned.

Deadly.

Économiste Monétaire

silverharp wrote: »

I came had across this piece about the UK , I cant imagine it would be any better here, and I would question a bottoming out in 2010 , I'd go for 2012 as more likely. I guess keeping track of occupancy will be an interesting stat to keep an eye on.

http://www.financialpost.com/money/your-money/Story.html?id=1106734

Commercial property in U.K. faces value crash
Up To 16% Decline
[...]

I'd hazard that the situation will be worse here, than in the UK; just a side note, I remember reading a paper awhile back about extreme fluctuations in commercial property prices, relative to other European countries, the UK experienced through the business cycle (I guess that's further evident here). Thanks for the link.

RedPlanet

Whatever happened to the bank bailout?
After xmas it pretty much dropped out of the news.
Whom got what?
Did anybody get anything yet or what?

ranger4

RedPlanet wrote: »

Whatever happened to the bank bailout?
After xmas it pretty much dropped out of the news.
Whom got what?
Did anybody get anything yet or what?

with the recap plans with ire banks are we likely to see further dilution with irish bank stock values 09-10.

silverharp

now heres a better se for the bail out money:pac::pac::pac:


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/01/07/porn-industry-seeks-federal-bailout/#more-34724

Porn industry seeks federal bailout
Posted: 05:27 PM ET

From CNN's Rebecca Sinderbrand and Mark Preston


Larry Flynt is asking for a bailout.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Another major American industry is asking for assistance as the global financial crisis continues: Hustler publisher Larry Flynt and Girls Gone Wild CEO Joe Francis said Wednesday they will request that Congress allocate $5 billion for a bailout of the adult entertainment industry.

“The take here is that everyone and their mother want to be bailed out from the banks to the big three,” said Owen Moogan, spokesman for Larry Flynt. “The porn industry has been hurt by the downturn like everyone else and they are going to ask for the $5 billion. Is it the most serious thing in the world? Is it going to make the lives of Americans better if it happens? It is not for them to determine.”

Francis said in a statement that “the US government should actively support the adult industry's survival and growth, just as it feels the need to support any other industry cherished by the American people."

“We should be delivering [the request] by the end of today to our congressmen and [Secretary of the Treasury Henry] Paulson asking for this $5 billion dollar bailout,” he told CNN Wednesday.


Flynt and Francis concede the industry itself is in no financial danger — DVD sales have slipped over the past year, but Web traffic has continued to grow.

But the industry leaders said the issue is a nation in need. "People are too depressed to be sexually active," Flynt said in the statement. "This is very unhealthy as a nation. Americans can do without cars and such but they cannot do without sex."

"With all this economic misery and people losing all that money, sex is the farthest thing from their mind. It's time for congress to rejuvenate the sexual appetite of America. The only way they can do this is by supporting the adult industry and doing it quickly."

So far, there has been no congressional reaction to the request.

–CNN’s Chloe Melas contributed to this report

Économiste Monétaire

There's a conference on tomorrow about our current situation--vis-a-vis banking and fiscal matters. Some of your favourite, crusty academics will be speaking. The website is here. The papers are non-technical, and Patrick Honohan's paper is worth reading for a time line of our banking, and property boom, problem (and about the Regulator); as is Morgan's. I guess the rest of the papers will be added later tomorrow.