Chief Economist of IEA says oil will peak by 2020

Macha

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/15/oil-peak-energy-iea

Quite a bit of a turn-around on their part.

"In terms of non-Opec [countries outside the big oil producers' cartel]," he replied, "we are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of the global picture, assuming that Opec will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view."

bonkey

Thread title is misleading.

Worst-case in that article is that production will peak or plateau in 2020, not run out.

omgiluvxmas

who cares seriously? when that happens so be it..in fact at least it be cool to live through something like that.

Macha

bonkey wrote: »

Thread title is misleading.

Worst-case in that article is that production will peak or plateau in 2020, not run out.

Sorry, edited. The Chief Economist didn't say anything about "worst-case". He simply stated that he expected oil to peak in 2020.

derry

They been pridicting the oil peak ever since 1911 when they found the first oil field.The oil been running out ever since then and yet they keep finding the stuff
Brazil has found since 2004 four mega huge oil fields and guess what prices of oil is going down.
Some MIT egg heads figured out over billions of years all the vegitation that existed all eon of time and the vegitation that got compressed into coal gas oil etc.They figure there is more than a 1000 years of oil years of to be found

So forget these oil peakers they just want to get you all worried for nothing

Derry

johnathan woss

From the WEO 2008;

"These projections call for huge investments to explore for and develop more reserves, mainly to combat decline at existing fields. An additional 64 mb/d of gross capacity - the equivalent of six times that of Saudi Arabia today - needs to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030. A faster rate of decline than projected here would sharply increase upstream investment needs and oil prices".

Open your eyes.

Húrin

derry wrote: »

They been pridicting the oil peak ever since 1911 when they found the first oil field.The oil been running out ever since then and yet they keep finding the stuff
Brazil has found since 2004 four mega huge oil fields and guess what prices of oil is going down.

No, peak oil is a new area of study in economics. People have not been trying to guess the date since the first oil field was found. I know you will not be able to find evidence for that claim, or any of your other claims.

Incidentally, what did Ford's 1908 Model T run on if the first oil field was found in 1911? Can't tell me? That's because you obviously know feck all about the subject you're trolling about.

Where is the moderation in this forum???

silverharp

Húrin wrote: »

Incidentally, what did Ford's 1908 Model T run on if the first oil field was found in 1911? Can't tell me? That's because you obviously know feck all about the subject you're trolling about.

Where is the moderation in this forum???

from wikipedia

The first oil well in North America was in Oil Springs, Ontario, Canada in 1858, dug by James Miller Williams. The US petroleum industry began with Edwin Drake's drilling of a 69-foot (21 m) oil well in 1859, on Oil Creek near Titusville, Pennsylvania, for the Seneca Oil Company (originally yielding 25 barrels per day (4.0 m³/d), by the end of the year output was at the rate of 15 barrels per day (2.4 m³/d)). The industry grew through the 1800s, driven by the demand for kerosene and oil lamps. It became a major national concern in the early part of the 20th century; the introduction of the internal combustion engine provided a demand that has largely sustained the industry to this day. Early "local" finds like those in Pennsylvania and Ontario were quickly outpaced by demand, leading to "oil booms" in Texas, Oklahoma, and California.

Early production of crude petroleum in the United States:[23]

1859: 2,000 barrels (~270 t)
1869: 4,215,000 barrels (~5.750×105 t)
1879: 19,914,146 barrels (~2.717×106 t)
1889: 35,163,513 barrels (~4.797×106 t)
1899: 57,084,428 barrels (~7.788×106 t)
1906: 126,493,936 barrels (~1.726×107 t)

---

Model T

The Model T had a front mounted, 177 in3 (2.9 L) four-cylinder en bloc motor (that is, all four in one block, as common now, rather than in individual castings, as common then) producing 20.2 hp (15 kW) for a top speed of 40-45 mph (64-72 km/h). The small four cylinder engine was known for its L heads. According to Ford Motor, the Model T had fuel economy on the order of 13 to 21 mpg (5 to 9 kilometres per litre or 11.1 to 18.7 litres per 100 km).[7] The engine was capable of running on gasoline or ethanol,[8][9] though the decreasing cost of gasoline and the later introduction of Prohibition in the United States made ethanol an impractical fuel.

While Ford experimented with the idea of using ethanol in the Model T, there was never a production Model T sold that could have been operated on ethanol. Henry Ford is quoted as saying: “We have found that 160-proof alcohol works very well in the ordinary gas engine on our cars and tractors”. And “Using alcohol in an ordinary Ford car, we are able to get 15 per cent more power than with the present gasoline”. [10] This statement is often cited out of context as proof that Ford made a production Model T capable of operating on Ethanol, when in fact it was only an unsuccessful experiment that was conducted many years after the design of the engine.

Henry Ford's experiments were an attempt to show that a farmer could raise corn, make ethanol from the corn to power his tractors and trucks, and still have enough remaining corn to sell at a profit. The experiment was not successful on an economic and practical basis.

Spurious accounts of an Atchison, Kansas Ethanol plant being operated by Henry Ford are found on many web sites but there is no contemporary evidence that Ford or any entity of Ford Motor Company had any involvement

Húrin

johnathan woss wrote: »

From the WEO 2008;

"These projections call for huge investments to explore for and develop more reserves, mainly to combat decline at existing fields. An additional 64 mb/d of gross capacity - the equivalent of six times that of Saudi Arabia today - needs to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030. A faster rate of decline than projected here would sharply increase upstream investment needs and oil prices".

Open your eyes.

It almost seems inevitable that they will start drilling under the Arctic in the next couple of decades, in which case my generation would be genuinely screwed.

djpbarry

derry wrote: »

The oil been running out ever since then and yet they keep finding the stuff
Brazil has found since 2004 four mega huge oil fields

Brazil only has about 12 billion barrels of proven reserves - pretty insignificant in the global scheme of things. So, whatever they found could not have been all that “mega”.

Jumpy

Húrin wrote: »

No, peak oil is a new area of study in economics. People have not been trying to guess the date since the first oil field was found. I know you will not be able to find evidence for that claim, or any of your other claims.

Incidentally, what did Ford's 1908 Model T run on if the first oil field was found in 1911? Can't tell me? That's because you obviously know feck all about the subject you're trolling about.

Where is the moderation in this forum???

Heh, I really wouldnt worry Hurin, you need not defend yourself from someone who started this thread...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055447323

omgiluvxmas wrote:

who cares seriously? when that happens so be it..in fact at least it be cool to live through something like that.

Not really man, the wars that declining oil may start will be rather nasty.
It may already be too late to avoid conflict even if they do start pumping large amounts of money into other options.