Model Outlook Jan 2009 --->

Hmmm I would suggest that the alternative GFS run tonight would bring heavy snow showers into Dublin...in about a week

-12 850 air right down the East...

Pity we cant freeze that and impliment it!

danni2

The 00z has downgraded the cold from the 18z, cold air does clip the east of Ireland next monday but nothing major cold. Overall nothing exciting really.

LEIN

Welcome back BB.

I must reply to your pm...

Meanwhile,theres a good chance will hand will be wrong.

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_thread/thread/da4fa7d86fdb7e50?hl=en

200motels

According to Accu Weather next week is going to be mild and wet, Sky News 3 day forecast gives rain moving in from the west on Sunday. Yet some models say easterlies for next week, it's all a bit confusing.

Snowaddict

Afternoon all.

I'm delighted to see BB back on here, Welcome Back!

I see from the latest GFS operational and ECM operational outputs (for the more reliable timeframe at least) that things are not looking very good in terms of potent cold.

There is still a huge amount of uncertainty at this point and there may yet be a turnaround. Some of the GEFS ensembles (06Z) are still very encouraging, with the mean 850hPA temps remaining below -5 from the 5th to the 9th of January. GFS Control was also very wintry for the more reliable timeframe on the 06Z. However we need to see a fairly big turnaround if there is to be proper potential from the 5th onwards and it may very well be that the operational outputs are picking up on signals that the other ensembles have not yet picked up on.

Still time for major changes and possibly changes in favour of more substantial colder weather. Things are still very uncertain at this point and this is in evidence in several of the online media weather forecasts.

I will try check in again later.

Regards,
SA.

There will always be turn arounds.
Meanwhile it's mild today here,it's +7c
This is fast losing it's title as a cold spell.

-5c to -7c 850 air would deliver rain here by the way without strong surface continental advection.A slack flow won't produce that.

Effectively the last 10 days of model output has been useless in terms of determining where our weather goes from here ie from being influenced by our meandering high pressure cell.
The scientists should think about that one.

My own personal feeling at this stage is we wont get any cold advection from either the continent or scandi because this block isnt able to block the atlantic from Ireland when push comes to shove.
It's at the pin of it's collar to keep it out of the rest of Europe.

Slight turn there by the GFS 12z again but of not much consequence for Ireland even past 120 I think with circa -5c 850's.

Huge uncertainties.There hasnt been a GFS certainty sub 144 for a while now.

Trogdor

Ensembles aren't that bad really, all dip to -10C (bar the operational) on the 6th on the 12z
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=113&y=33

shamwari

John Eagleton delivered the forcast after the 6pm news on RTE1. He never once mentioned the magical "S" word, but at the end of the bulletin, the weather graphic for next Monday showed what look like snow down the east side of the country.....:eek:

Snowaddict

Hey all.

Well in the more reliable timeframe, the GEFS ensembles are what I would describe as very good. The ensemble mean now drops to -10 between the 5th and 7th of Jan and remains at or below -5 between the 5th and the 11th.

Regarding the 12Z GFS operational, it certainly has toned down somewhat in terms of being a mild outlier compared to previous runs and offers a halfway house type scenario from what I can see which would potentially deliver some marginal snow to more favoured areas. This run again needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, but is encouraging. Furthermore, the 12Z GFS parallel run is very good, as is the 12Z GFS operational run. This is interesting IMO because the 12Z Operational GFS run is usually the most progressive of runs. However, we must note that NOAA are not happy with the 12Z GFS run.

I'm not by any means suggesting that any potential colder outbreak is going to happen because at the moment there is simply huge uncertainty in the model outputs, but it certainly cannot be ruled out at this point. However, if the ensembles were to be correct and if they verified, a sharp drop will still occur in upper 850 hPA temps between the 3rd and 5th of January over Ireland, as has been shown for many days now.

The drop to -10 is most impressive but is still approx 138 hours out and there are still plenty of chances for significant changes.

ECMWF 12Z is not excellent, however from what I can breifly make out, its somewhat better than previous runs, up to T+144 at least.

The bottom line at this point is that the potential is still in evidence for a potential wintry onset, (even slightly more strongly when compared to previous runs) beginning around next Monday, 5th of January, on some model outputs at least. However, due to the large degree of uncertainty at this point, all options are on the table and it may yet be a case of so close but yet so far for Ireland, equally the cold outbreak could potentially materialise.

Things have trended somewhat in the right direction on the latest suite of GFS outputs, but there's a long way to go yet.

Happy new year to all.
I will check in again as soon as possible.

Regards to all,
SA.

arctictree

OK - Obviously everyone is out celebrating!

18z GFS seems like a major upgrade to me.

Wintry event still on for Monday and getting colder after that.

Interesting, GFS showing maxes in the midlands of -4c next Wednesday!

Happy New Year!

A

BigCon

Wow, seems to have turned around again, look good for Monday and getting even better after that (to my untrained eye anyway). Hope it stays that way...

danni2

Happy new year everyone!!:D

Speaking of happy I'm happy with the 18z, looking good for monday and after that we have a true northerly wind.

j1979p

Wow, what an upgrade. According to GFS now, T150 and it's snowfest across the country! Why do i feel i have to take this with a pinch of salt? :rolleyes:

Hal1

Hmm interesting chart, tis a week out wait and see. Happy new year an all that.

danni2

The 00z gfs run has downgraded from the 18z but still looking cold, met eireann has mention the word snow.

Latest from met.
Sunday looks like turning cloudier with some rain or sleet affecting the north and west. On Monday this will affect other areas as well and there is a possibility that it may turn to SNOW in places

nacho libre

It'll be interesting to see what the BBC forecast shows for Monday. I have a feeling the midlands will likely see snow out of this if the met eireann forecast is correct.

Snowbie

Very interesting charts and at less than T+120hrs. Cold air very much in place and an eye catching feature approaching from the north.:)



but could slip into the continent.

Snowbie

Not very often we get -11C 850mb air in Ireland.

nacho libre

I wonder how low the 850 mb air temps were 81 and 82. What's the eye catching figure snowbie?? is it a series of trough coming from the east?

200motels

Snowbie wrote: »

Not very often we get -11C 850mb air in Ireland.

Very interesting.

Villain

These charts are showing cold for 2 weeks if you dare to believe them that far out, sadly I can't any snow really just cold but we might get a breakdown at some stage and when you look at the charts for this year and last January we certainly have better charts with a quite atlantic so no mild rain muck for a while anyway.

Happy new year everyone, lets hope its a very white one

LEIN

I don't know if its a problem on my end but i am just getting a red x where the models are supposed to be on Snowbie's posts.

Hal1

Damo9090 wrote: »

I don't know if its a problem on my end but i am just getting a red x where the models are supposed to be on Snowbie's posts.

Clear your browser cache, delete temp inet files. The pics are worth it.

shamwari

Hal1 wrote: »

Clear your browser cache, delete temp inet files. The pics are worth it.

I can't see the models either. Browser cache cleared but made no difference

matt cork

same here, not showing even after deleting all caches, cookies and the like and refreshing page

(pls delete after)

Villain

Well I think it was the GFS he was posting so probably the images below, which will update as the new runs comes out

shamwari

Looks cool...(pardon the pun )

Snowaddict

Good evening all.

I've been managing to catch up with the latest outputs, and certainly if the last 4 GFS runs are to be believed, we could potentially be on the cusp of something quite cold to very cold and potentially wintry, beginning during the latter stages of next Monday and for the majority of next week.

However, caution is greatly advised at this point. We need this setup at T+72 at least, before we can contemplate it as a definate. The fact that potent upper 850hPA temps of -10 are now in the sub T+120 timeframe is very encouraging.

Although, as it currently stands, there are two major risks / areas of concern at this point IMO:

1. The ECMWF model output must come on board with regard to what GFS operational is showing either tonight or by tomorrow morning. A stalemate such as this at such a closer timeframe is worrying. Although the GFS operational output is supported by some of the lesser regarded models, ECM has to come on board soon, or there could very well be problems.
2. I have noticed an upward trend in the GEFS ensembles over recent runs. If the ensemble mean for upper 850hPA temps rises any further, there could also be problems.

In conclusion, despite what GFS operational has continually showed during recent outputs, caution is still very much needed and the outlook is still very uncertain. I will check in again when possible. I'm just being very cautious at the moment due to the model disagreement and slightly worrying trend of the ensembles. However, if we see a few more GFS operational runs showing this type of output along with cross model agreement, then the chances are that a wintry outbreak could potentially develop next week, possibly beginning late on Monday.

Regards,
SA.