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Model Outlook Jan 2009 --->

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    To be honest and I hope I'm wrong here but it's unlikely-the last 2 weeks of model watching have been a waste of time other than for dreaming of course and pure scientific interest.
    Nothing from those 2 weeks is verifying even remotely.

    Theres no cold uppers over Ireland and no usefull sign of them arriving.At best we have a vastly moderated quasi continental airstream over us with no bang, punch or anything worthwhile or interesting capability wise mixed in it.

    And as for blocking...my definition of northern blocking doesn't include weather systems coming in from the atlantic and southwesterlies which is what has been forecast on RTE tonight for sunday/Monday.

    If I remember correctly we had a very similar scenario two winters ago with a meandering high and models flirting with it angling in a fluke position to allow in deep cold air.
    It's not our weather type so we shouldnt be surprised really at how rare it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The 18z is a poor run. The only chance of snow is Tuesday as the rain/sleet slowly clears SEwards and cold air pushes in from the NW.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The BBC forecast was not very encouraging for those of us looking for snow on Monday. :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    Met eireann forecast has been updated and they still have the possibility of snow from Sunday to Monday night.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 24 chalkie


    To be honest and I hope I'm wrong here but it's unlikely-the last 2 weeks of model watching have been a waste of time other than for dreaming of course and pure scientific interest.
    Nothing from those 2 weeks is verifying even remotely.

    Have to agree with you in general there, Black Briar, although maybe not so much a waste of time. It does provide more evidence, if it was needed, that ECM and UKMO models lead the way. Even the GFS ensembles now look as if, despite all their original clusterings, their eventual prognosis from numerous perturbations was questionable.

    I won't stop looking at the GFS however I have learned to use it to pick up on possible very general trend at T+144 to maybe T+180. Beyond that and it's pot luck.

    Looking at the 06z GFS it's a pity to see the heights rapidly diminish to our North. Any High pressure reading over Greenland, in the absence of these heights, cannot be relied upon. It may be time to look to the NE for any renewed build in pressure in the next couple of weeks.

    Meanwhile, good weather to be out and about!

    Joe


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,960 ✭✭✭IrishHomer


    Intellicast.com (american) are giving a 24% chance of snow for Monday. This is high chance by their standards for Ireland.

    http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=EIXX0055


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    danni2 wrote: »
    Met eireann forecast has been updated and they still have the possibility of snow from Sunday to Monday night.

    met ie:
    There will be further outbreaks of rain, sleet and possibly snow on SUNDAY NIGHT, with some frost and icy patches. The unsettled weather will continue on MONDAY - outbreaks of rain, sleet and possibly snow, with frost and icy stretches in places on MONDAY NIGHT, despite a moderate southerly breeze. TUESDAY will be a drier day, though there will be some showers. TUESDAY NIGHT will be mainly dry, with light winds and patches of frost, mist and fog.


    it's not often you hear southerly breezes and the possibility of snow mentioned in the same sentence.
    however, i'd still like to see what the bbc weather charts show before getting my hopes up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    To be honest and I hope I'm wrong here but it's unlikely-the last 2 weeks of model watching have been a waste of time other than for dreaming of course and pure scientific interest.
    Nothing from those 2 weeks is verifying even remotely.

    Theres no cold uppers over Ireland and no usefull sign of them arriving.At best we have a vastly moderated quasi continental airstream over us with no bang, punch or anything worthwhile or interesting capability wise mixed in it.

    And as for blocking...my definition of northern blocking doesn't include weather systems coming in from the atlantic and southwesterlies which is what has been forecast on RTE tonight for sunday/Monday.

    If I remember correctly we had a very similar scenario two winters ago with a meandering high and models flirting with it angling in a fluke position to allow in deep cold air.
    It's not our weather type so we shouldnt be surprised really at how rare it is.

    Have to agree. While the Christmas period has been cold by recent years standards, it has been a very quiet period weather wise. Looking at the model outputs over the past 10 days have always put the 'extreme' cold at arms length. 4 days ago we were looking at the prospect of cold - colder than now, air from Europe from the 3rd of Jan - but now it seems put back another few days,as always. The fact that there has been little or no precipitation means little or no snow risk, and thats what us coldies would like to see ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    I dont want to open a new thread for an imby question , Temps looking low for Prague next week , would someone take a look at the models for central Europe , or post a more reliable link for a 'Temperature Tracker' for the City , might come close to my personal all time low of -17c in Iceland in 2000 :D:D:D cheers.
    http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/11518.html


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    chalkie wrote: »
    Have to agree with you in general there, Black Briar, although maybe not so much a waste of time. It does provide more evidence, if it was needed, that ECM and UKMO models lead the way. Even the GFS ensembles now look as if, despite all their original clusterings, their eventual prognosis from numerous perturbations was questionable.
    Agreed.I mean look at the pertubations some posted here and elsewhere of the various runs.I honestly knew on see'ing them from experience that they would be wildly inaccurate.Been there done that worn the t-shirt etc.
    I won't stop looking at the GFS however I have learned to use it to pick up on possible very general trend at T+144 to maybe T+180. Beyond that and it's pot luck.
    Same here but like all models,it cannot handle a high that just wants to move about the room rather than head off to the next one.
    Looking at the 06z GFS it's a pity to see the heights rapidly diminish to our North. Any High pressure reading over Greenland, in the absence of these heights, cannot be relied upon. It may be time to look to the NE for any renewed build in pressure in the next couple of weeks.
    Agreed but alas it will probably be the end of february/early march or worse before it appears if at all by which time it's too late to see the full potential fo such a set up.


    By the way we seem to have had another example in recent weeks of Joe from accuweather losing the run of himself regarding a Euro freeze making its way into these islands.

    As far as I am concerned,all the usual suspects on NW and elswhere can crow all the like about being in a cold spell when in fact all they really are in over in GB is a typical freeze caused by a hp cell thats sticking around at a time of year when daylight is at it's shortest.
    I just laugh at the naievity of peeps there posting "wow" it's minus 6 on the welsh borders at 6am-chilly....
    Of course it is under clear skies and still air in winter..


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    I dont want to open a new thread for an imby question , Temps looking low for Prague next week , would someone take a look at the models for central Europe , or post a more reliable link for a 'Temperature Tracker' for the City , might come close to my personal all time low of -17c in Iceland in 2000 :D:D:D cheers.
    http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/11518.html

    http://www.praguewebcam.com/

    No snow there at the moment.But bitter and likely to remain so.
    If you need a good hot toddy,head into the bar at the four seasons (beside pragues only michellin star restaurant) and ask the bloke at the bar for it.It's superb!
    Also go to the pravda restaurant-it's the 2nd best in the city in my opinion-it's about a 15 min walk from charles bridge-ask your concierge-it's behind the jewish embasy.

    As regards snow,you'd be pure unlucky not to see some while there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    http://www.praguewebcam.com/

    No snow there at the moment.But bitter and likely to remain so.
    If you need a good hot toddy,head into the bar at the four seasons (beside pragues only michellin star restaurant) and ask the bloke at the bar for it.It's superb!
    Also go to the pravda restaurant-it's the 2nd best in the city in my opinion-it's about a 15 min walk from charles bridge-ask your concierge-it's behind the jewish embasy.

    As regards snow,you'd be pure unlucky not to see some while there.

    High value information there BB , I shall certainly force down some of those hot toddy thingys :rolleyes:.......much appreciated ;).


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7817.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

    Nice Rainy cold wet aul day coming up monday if GFS is to be believed at 72hrs range...
    I re-iterate it makes a cod of the whole thing if this is what we end up with after a forthnight of model speculation.

    I've seen stronger East winds here with summer sea breezes :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,947 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Sure looks bad now BB, the -10 850hPa are no-where us now!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7817.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

    Nice Rainy cold wet aul day coming up monday if GFS is to be believed at 72hrs range...
    I re-iterate it makes a cod of the whole thing if this is what we end up with after a forthnight of model speculation.

    I've seen stronger East winds here with summer sea breezes :rolleyes:
    Here Here.:mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭shamwari


    The BBC forecast was not very encouraging for those of us looking for snow on Monday. :(

    Beeb online forecast for Dublin is showing rain for Sunday and fog for Monday & Tuesday.:(


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Lads I wouldnt pay any particular attention to online forecasts on sites like even the BBC and definitely the likes of weather online,wunderground or metcheck if it's still going.
    They are computer generated in the main with very little forecaster intervention except within 24hrs or so.

    I see posters over on TWO and NW are getting all excited over nothing again in the last 20 mins or so as another post new reality ie past 72hrs pile of garbage is being thrown out by the 12z GFS..

    I suppose it makes it interesting reading nonethe less..
    Pity the verified weather isn't.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    according to Evelyn at 9:30 pm the cold air will win out resulting in the mild air retreating westwards but temperatures will be around six or seven on Tuesday. So it seems like severe cold is not going to take hold anytime soon.
    Still having said that met eireann's chart for monday looks promising for snow on high ground in the west and north west. Hopefully as the cold air wins the battle the snow will not be confined to high ground. What do the experts here think? Will some of us see snow??


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,329 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Looking at the latest GFS it seems like there may be some marginal snow events starting late Sunday and into Tuesday. Temps seem a little high so it is quite marginal.

    An Atlantic LP is hitting cold continental air over Ireland and it seems to be a very nowcast situation. If you are too far east of the front then there will be no precip but cold temps, too far west and it may be too warm for snow. Very interesting to watch.

    A


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The forecasted dew points by GFS on the 18z run would scupper any chances of Irish Snow I am afraid. The 18z is a continuation of a series of downgrades I feel.
    It is a pity to see the thing go pear shaped after all the beautiful charts. Oh well, maybe again in a week or so...

    Mild Air Wins 1 V 0 Danno's gut feeling. :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    06z this morning has the cold holding onto our shores for a bit longer and keeping the Atlantic at bay well into next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭daviddwyer


    any updates lads?
    Need something to make the return to work on Monday a little bit more exciting.... an upcoming snow fest would certainly make it more bearable!!:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,947 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Not going to happen by the looks of it, some sleet showers with snow on higher grounds on Tuesday maybe


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    Well it looks like it's staying cold all this week, for snow the chances are only slight in my views.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Hey all.

    I haven't been able to check the outputs until this evening.
    A real shame that many of the model outputs backed away from the real potent cold right at the point of entering the very reliable timeframe. It really shows that any wintry setup needs to be in the T+72 timeframe before any real certainty can be applied. Even GFS Operational was suggesting potent cold in the sub T+120 timeframe only a day ago, ony to drop it. The GFS ensembles were very consistent right up to almost the reliable timeframe, only to also go pear shaped.

    It does make me wonder whether Ireland can truly sustain a prolonged snowfall and a potent cold spell these days. We have come quite close this time, but no potent outbreak has entailed. I'm sure it will happen again sumtime in the future, but the question is when. On into February, the sun will be getting to a higher angle in the sky etc, somewhat hampering lying snow potential. Thats not to rule out any snow however and we are only into January yet so anything can happen with the rest of the winter.

    I think that we will see a return to zonality / a more mobile pattern within possibly a week or so from now, potentially from next weekend, which is shown on several of the latest model outputs. I think a change in the weather setup will be good because the weather has become fairly stagnated in recent weeks. Although it will probably remain quite cold for the majority of this week, with the outside possibility of some marginal snow flurries, its a far cry from what so many outputs (Notably GFS) have previously shown for next week.

    The latest UK Met Office Update is supportive of the return to a more mobile pattern, as are the latest set of GFS ensembles and the latest ECMWF operational outputs:

    12Z GEFS Ensembles 03/01/2009

    t850Dublin.png

    Latest UK Met Office Update

    ''The start of this period is expected to continue to be mostly dry and cold with clear or sunny periods and with widespread overnight frost and the risk of some freezing fog patches. These cold, mostly settled conditions are expected to continue across southern parts of the United Kingdom through the first weekend of this outlook period and perhaps also into the following week in the far south. However, it should gradually become more unsettled from the north with bands of rain, occasional strong westerly winds and milder conditions spreading in from the Atlantic. These more unsettled and milder conditions are then expected to continue through the following week with rain or showers for most parts, the wettest and windiest conditions generally in the north and west''


    I'm sure many would like to see an 80's type wintry outbreak (myself included), but going on the latest outputs, thats just not going to happen anytime soon at least. The start to this winter has certainly been cooler / more cold than recent ones and the remaining winter period will certainly make for a very interesting period of model watching.

    Regards,
    Snowaddict. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i bet though the gfs models can be trusted before t+72 when its predicting a return to milder weather though:mad: so, now it looks like we have to wait till February for a northerly blast to give it some snow:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    i bet though the gfs models can be trusted before t+72 when its predicting a return to milder weather though:mad: so, now it looks like we have to wait till February for a northerly blast to give it some snow:(

    Well IMHO, the fact that the winter so far at least has been dominated by high pressure is an encouraging sign, in the sense that to date, we have not had any continuous blow-torch southwesterlies. So far at least this high pressure dominance has not delivered anything terrifically noteworthy and the weather has been fairly cool to cold with stagnated conditions. A pattern breakdown or reset to mobile conditions may be in the offing, but thats not certain at this point. However a return to more mobile atlantic sourced weather conditions is inevitable at some point. Although, right now at least, I wouldn't rule out anything for the rest of the winter.

    At this point at least, I wouldn't despair too much. Temps are near to or slightly below average on the whole. If there is nothing of significance come mid February, then I would be quite disappointed TBH.

    Given the outputs of the last 15 to 20 days, I will almost always put far greater confidence in the ECMWF outputs in the future, because for the majority of the time in these past few weeks, it has been the most accurate model for the more reliable timeframe and indeed out towards the T+168 timeframe. GFS wants to tempt many with classic wintry synoptics, but these very rarely materialise.

    SA. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭daviddwyer


    Snowaddict wrote: »
    Given the outputs of the last 15 to 20 days, I will almost always put far greater confidence in the ECMWF outputs in the future, because for the majority of the time in these past few weeks, it has been the most accurate model for the more reliable timeframe and indeed out towards the T+168 timeframe. GFS wants to tempt many with classic wintry synoptics, but these very rarely materialise.

    SA. :)

    Well I guess some good has come out of it..... at least we've sussed what to watch and not what to watch.

    i for one am hanging up my model watching boots... knew squat all about them but I got too interested when something looked like it was possibly going to happen, only to follow it to the death and have nothing materialise from it:(
    Think I will stop looking and hopefully some morning will wake up to a wonderful surprise!!

    Ta-ta for now!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Thread Locked. See "January Cold Spell Warning" :D thread for explanation. Significant events shown by the models within the 72hr timeframe will doubtless have seperatre threads anyway. But for now, fingers crossed for some lively weather in the near future!:pac:;)


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