Model mood thread - warning, ramp ahead!!

Supercell

Folks, please put all your forecasts and model "feelings" in here please.
Feel free to ramp away to your hearts content at that snowfest in T+386 thats nailed on!!
As always, be nice

Supercell

Favourable 850's

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

Nice little channel low

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

I reckon >100 metres could see more than a little snow from this.
Camera at the ready

M.T. Cranium

At least there's a chance of something white falling during the next week. The GFS reloads the cold too, some other models don't even need to, as they hold the cold ridge longer.

I think this winter so far has been a case of many near misses for Ireland, plenty of cold nights, can't see this going on too much longer without turning to snow at some point.

Deep Easterly

It's only 324hrs away.

ECM this morning was appalling in fi. High pressure to the near south getting ready to unleash a **** load of weak warm fronts over the country. I wager that with all the chopping and changing in FI lately regarding the models, that this particular forecast will come to pass. And with pressure never falling below 1024mbs despite the drizzle, you can be sure that extension of the Azores High will destroy yet another storm season.

The weather in this country is becoming unbearable. Just constant, eternal blandness, everyday...:mad:

Edit: Chart I speak of:

200motels

This model for Thursday week looks good and the ones after looks even better, but the way the models are changing from one day to the next it's hard to believe them.

Snowaddict

Nice FI Eye Canday on the GFS 06Z Parallel Output this morning.

All of it beginning 180 hours away of course. :D

Either way, its nice to see this run show bitter easterlies and a true Scandi high, just a shame its in FI.

SA.

Indeed it might be enough to warm us up moscow style in FI

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png?6767676767

Supercell

Tbh, my house is nut achingly cold by now..a few weeks of mild will do just fine if snow aint coming. My bleedin' bedroom is 10°C..I cannot sleep with a cold nose

200motels

The model for next Monday looks good for cold weather.

ninebeanrows

Supercell wrote: »

Tbh, my house is nut achingly cold by now..a few weeks of mild will do just fine if snow aint coming. My bleedin' bedroom is 10°C..I cannot sleep with a cold nose

Yup my bedrooms a disaster, i need 2 blankies this weather but the head being cold is a nuisance.

Perhaps some signs that the return to mild weather wont last long with average/colder weather returning towards middle of next week.

Mr Benevolent

Newest run is interesting:

Danno

Now now Confab, be nice! :P

sirpsycho

48hrs from now...



ps. A good site that explains the various model parameters from the http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html site is:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/

Snowaddict

Just a quick post from me. There appears to be a lot of pessimism now that we are leaving the cold spell, but I still think there is a lot to be optimisitc about. Ok, we are now entering a more mobile spell of weather, but that's not to say it will be continuous. Even if there is an atlantic influence for a good while, thats not to suggest that there won't be wintry possiblities.

Since this is the model mood thread I am going to post regarding the possibility of height rises to our Northeast towards the back end of next week. There has been a lot of uncertainty on the outputs in recent days, even for the more reliable timeframe.

These have been shown cleary on some of the latest model outputs, including UKMO, GME and of course the ever varying GFS.

Now only a few outputs have shown these height rises to be robust enough to exert any influence on the weather of the British Isles, but its something worth keeping an eye on either way.

GFS 18Z Parallel Run Tonight Suggets 1030mb high over Scandi region at T+192, but subsequently shunts the block eastward thereafter. There is a strong probability at this point that this may well be the outcome because the jet may be too active and may overpower this block.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-192.png?18

Another possible trend that has been hinted at is the possiblity of cold zonality on some of the latest GFS outputs. This would have to get into a very reliable timeframe before being credible, because of the precariousness of getting proper cold zonality. However, if it did occur, it could very well deliver in terms of wintriness for many areas.

Again, several recent GFS Operational and GFS Parallel outputs have displayed this possiblity.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-2-324.png?18

Also, for those feeling very downbeat at this time, I would like to refer you to this post, it may offer a glimmer of hope for this month if you are after wintriness at some point during January .

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52387&view=findpost&p=1419907

It is a certainty that we will be warming up (In relative terms compared to the recent very cold spell) over the weekend with a more mobile pattern, but thats not by any means suggesting an entirely mild January. Even with a mobile pattern, there are always opportunities for PM or Polar Maritime incursions.

Stay positive, the winter has been very good to excellent so far in terms of cold and its not over by any means yet.

Regards to all from the ever optimisitc Snowaddict.

Note: The Links I posted above for charts change with every run, so they may not demonstrate on the next few runs what I have talked about above. All of the above charts are based on the 18Z outputs, Friday 09th Jan 2009.

Danno

Good post SA. Hopefully something to become of it...

force eleven

GFS 6z shows LP sytems for next week diving to the south of us, from Tuesday/Wednesday.If that happens it will be interesting.Cold rain more than likely, but who knows? With an East wind you never know.
A bit of mobility is needed IMO to keep the weather interesting, its been nice for the last 2 and 1/2 weeks but time for a change!;)

arctictree

GFS 12z has an interesting chart at t+108 :



If you looked at that chart in isolation you might think that a mad cold spell would happen after it. Unfortunately it just seems to disappear over the next few runs. I wonder why that happens - too much activity in the Atlantic maybe?

Too much azores air/western france air influence on that south easterly anyway.

The "high" in scandy is perfectly positioned though if only it was 25 to 35 mb's stronger.
At 1020 it's as good as not there.

Danno

The default mode of the GFS is a raging Atlantic and zonal patterns. I have not looked at any models as of yet today, will wait for the 18z, but I feel the ECM or the UKMO will give better clues as to what will be the outcome of the week ahead.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Too much azores air/western france air influence on that south easterly anyway.

The "high" in scandy is perfectly positioned though if only it was 25 to 35 mb's stronger.
At 1020 it's as good as not there.

Agree with everything except about the azores influence on that low. What is winding that low shown on the chart discussed is a cool polar maritime WNW clashing with bank of unstable air off the western coast of France. The relatively warm waters where this clash takes place is also helping to stir things up. The Azores influence is being diverted SE due to this on that chart thankfully, and is for once playing no part, which gives the chart an unusual look about it.

However, while ECM was the first to show this set up a few days back, they now have the same low more to the west of us, with only a secondary to the near south. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. All the same, I don't see anything incredibly exciting on the charts this evening, except once again in the ECMWF FI, which is insisting on a cool to cold zonality to bring us into the last 3rd of January.

200motels

What do ye make of this model for next Thursday?

Danno

Mild and wet at first, becoming much cooler and showery...

200motels

Danno wrote: »

Mild and wet at first, becoming much cooler and showery...

Thanks Danno. Some of the later models for the following week are interesting for cold weather but that's a long way off.

arctictree

Ahhhh - Just looked at the 12z GFS. Mild westerlies right out to t+384!!

Gonzo

arctictree wrote: »

Ahhhh - Just looked at the 12z GFS. Mild westerlies right out to t+384!!

It doesnt get much more depressing:( looks like the rest of January is appauling for us cold and snow lovers... hopefully February will bring a flake or 2.

Supercell

I'm escaping to southern China next month, which means you all will be buried under 5 feet of snow in a '47'esque winter.
That said i'll be wairing a t-shirt and working on my tan at the same time ..

chalkie

I've just realised that the snow potential in the ECM long range charts is directly proportional to the amount of Tullamore Dew consumed.

On that basis I have decided to consume a lot of the 'Dew'and I'm beginning to like what I see on the ECM...

Will Hand has also posted on uk.sci.weather and while the latest run might be an outlier if it does hold water (not whiskey!) then things could be very interesting indeed.

Whatever any outcome I'm mellow and enjoying the renewed vigour in the weather after what was a nice cold but boring spell!!

Interesting weather, eh?

Joe

Supercell

chalkie wrote: »

Will Hand has also posted on uk.sci.weather and while the latest run might be an outlier if it does hold water (not whiskey!) then things could be very interesting indeed.

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?
I know he's a pro meteorologist but have to say that my overriding impression is that he belongs in the snow hope-casters group over a realist-caster group..
When Will forecasts snow i check the charts and downgrade by about 50% and then reckon I'm getting close to realistic.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?
I know he's a pro meteorologist but have to say that my overriding impression is that he belongs in the snow hope-casters group over a realist-caster group..
When Will forecasts snow i check the charts and downgrade by about 50% and then reckon I'm getting close to realistic.

damn you supercell you party pooper. feck off to China already so we can get some snow;)

chalkie

Supercell wrote: »

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?

The content, Supercell, not the personality. He makes a point about what the models show and he has some experience as even you recognise. I do acknowledge he "ramps" a fair bit however I would listen to him sooner than some other rampers that appear from time to time.

If people are interested in seeing views expressed by others I was merely pointing to one source as a reference. What's your point?

Supercell

chalkie wrote: »

If people are interested in seeing views expressed by others I was merely pointing to one source as a reference. What's your point?

My point is that having read Will's forecasts for several years now its clear that when snow is a possibility that Will's forecast accuracy drops as hope overtakes sense.