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Model mood thread - warning, ramp ahead!!
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Sorry, Danno, maybe I was taking a lot for granted!
Here is WHAT Will posted;
"You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's (11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two."0 -
My point is that having read Will's forecasts for several years now its clear that when snow is a possibility that Will's forecast accuracy drops as hope overtakes sense.
I can see where you're coming from but remember he does forecast generally for his own neck of the woods. My own point was that when someone like Will, with his experience, makes note of a potential model trend I pay attention. The forecast detail, as you rightly point out, may not be so accurate especially beyond Dartmoor.
Joe
P.S. I've been reading his posts for several years too! 0 -
Sorry, Danno, maybe I was taking a lot for granted!
Here is WHAT Will posted;
"You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's (11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two."
Well, since this is a "ramp" thread, I see no harm in posting the situation that Hand fella is yapping about:
ECMWF 12z 216hrs:
Since that chart is so far out there in fantasy Ireland, an ole ramp is no harm since it is all we have. It will probably never come to pass, but it is a great look chart though.
(Is this around the time Supercell is headin to China? :eek::D) 0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Well, since this is a "ramp" thread, I see no harm in posting the situation that Hand fella is yapping about:
ECMWF 12z 216hrs:
Fantastic chart Deep Easterly
. What a snowfest that could turn into if precip was available, which it could well be given the moisture laden source . Although its in FI, there have been subtle hints on the various NWP outputs in recent days for potentially wintry conditions for the period from around the 17-20 January or so. It may come to nothing, but things do look a tad interesting at the moment. Of course its in FI, but the dreaded Atlantic may yet deliver for us. 0 -
Where has SA gone? He normally has some good news about possible wintriness.
Oh I'm here Damo, just catching up on the latest outputs. Some quite interesting one's indeed. It now appears that that transient Scandi High for next week won't deliver anything for Ireland, so I think its a case of possibly looking to the north / northwest. Bearing in mind that my last major snowfall came from the Northwest, even here in Southeast Ireland, I wouldn't mind these ECM charts coming off.
The only danger with this type of setup is the modification of the flow given the large sea track. However, I think things look a tad interesting at this point. Lets give it a few more days to see how things pan out. If this were an easterly with a very cold source being projected I would be more confident of snowfall if these charts were to potentially come off.
At this point I would say there is a fairly good chance of snowfall in some parts at least before the end of January. Of course I could be wrong, but things do look a tad interesting at this point, albeit in FI.
One more encouraging element from the ECM output tonight is that it has taken fairly cold zonality to the T+168 timemark. If we can get these charts into the more reliable without a terrible amount of modification, then I may even be tempted to ramp quite a bit.
Outlook at this point is very interesting from a wintry potential IMHO. 0 -
Hey, SA.
Are you watching the 18z GFS? That High is proving even more stubborn on that run!!
However, we've been here before and it is the GFS albeit at T+132 so NOT so far out.
The past few weeks have knocked my faith in the GFS but it can still be a good source of debate. The morning's ECM and UKMO will tell us a lot.
I'm still inclined to look to the NW and N for excitement our way over the next couple of weeks although parts of SE England might cling on to some continental influence for a little longer.
Joe0 -
Snowaddict wrote: »Fantastic chart Deep Easterly. What a snowfest that could turn into if precip was available, which it could well be given the moisture laden source . Although its in FI, there have been subtle hints on the various NWP outputs in recent days for potentially wintry conditions for the period from around the 17-20 January or so. It may come to nothing, but things do look a tad interesting at the moment. Of course its in FI, but the dreaded Atlantic may yet deliver for us.
Yep SA, a lot of talk about this vigourous cold wave exiting Canada over the last few days. While that does seem almost certain to happen, models will no doubt chop and change as to how this unstable and cold airmass will effect us down the line, if at all.
That ECM chart looks great though, and I would hope something like that will play off. While it does have a lot of snow potential for Ireland, it also has a lot of thunder potential too. Some of the most spectacular and awe inspiring thunder and lightning storms I have ever seen have come from a set up not unlike that one. If it snows while the black thunder booms, then that is just a splendid bonus! 0 -
Might be nothing but the 18Z GFS has certainly intensified that Scandi High.
Now that low is probably too strong and would probably overpower the block, but thats a decent block at 1040mb, and definately a trend towards the UKMO recent outputs.
If that low was a little less deeper of further south, then I daren't say what might happen.
This is but one run and given its GFS I'm far from convinced, but an interesting development to say the least.
Edit: Just saw your post up there now Joe.
This T+168 chart is very good IMO, not far from a classic battleground Scenario. I'm very surprised by this output tonight TBH and I'm treating this run with a pinch of salt. Although it does show cold zonality kicking in around the 18th.
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http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png
1.That is not a scandi high...It's also not a blocking high in the usual definition of the term meaning blocking the atlantic from us and near Europe:rolleyes:
It's a variation of the siberian high/Russian/Latvia lithuania high.
If it were to come off though it would give a shot of very warm sourced air right up past western scandi which might aid a push west of that high or the building a scandi high properly positioned for easterlies here.
2. 850 temps have to be -10 at least for atlantic sourced snow at sea level.Possible but a lowish likelyhood.The sea track looks too long in SA's chart.Even for a Northwesterly,the flow would need to be nearer Iceland.
From experience,the last few times there was serious atlantic snow showers...it was caused by a direct northerly that veered East to become a westerly near Ireland.
@Damo
By the way a northwesterly rarely if ever delivers snow to the East south of Dublin and Kilkenny for instance would most likely be dry but cold 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Above a 1000ft asl probably.
Trouble is,it's about 60% maratime and only 40 or less polar due to the long sea track and the inclination of the sea track.
The latter exposes it to too much of the warmer atlantic en route.
As I said above,you need a routing via iceland to change that around for the better ie 60% polar 30 to 40% maratime.
No holding of breaths...
True, but it can snow during the nightime hours under such conditions, that is my experience of similar set ups. The warmer waters of the Atlantic can initiate huge showers, which in themselves can create snow at lower levels due to the heavy downdrafts. While a route via Iceland may be more beneficial for daytime snow, I am not complaining about the current models.
Secondly, I am not sure I like the way this thread is heading. It was opened by Supercell who saw the need of some light relief from the model outlook thread and as a more fun version of it. If I see the fun being tramped upon, I will have no hesitation in locking it. 0 -
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Many of the latest outputs are simply very good for Ireland. At this point, with so much changing from run to run its not wise to do a complete analysis of one run, however I think the link to the post below sums up the whole thing. At this point, one would have to think that the chances of snowfall over Ireland during the next 10 days or so have increased somewhat at this point.
Its quite interesting that these charts are making it into the T+144 timeframe on some of the most recent NWP outputs.
I think the post below from an individual who accurately forecast the post Xmas colder scenario sums up the potential that may lie ahead. At this point I will try to resist ramping, but if these charts do keep appearing as we head towards the rather more reliable timeframe, ie. sub T+96, then it's game on.
PS: That 12Z GFS today was fantastic, showing both cold zonality and very cold easterlies.
Interesting times ahead:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52443&view=findpost&p=1423206
Regards,
SA. 0 -
An interesting set of 18Z ensembles. It would appear that some some colder options may well be on the cards.
Some good support there for that colder incursion beginning that back end of this weekend, with some interesting runs for the FI part of this run to say the least.
Since this is the model mood thread with predictions allowed I would say that there is a good chance at this point of at least some snowfall occuring over Ireland within the next 10 days. What I would also say is that although the end of the month is very much still in FI, I would think that there is a fair chance for a renewed blocking pattern to emerge. Now it may come to nothing and I certainly don't want to raise a false hope, but that high pressure to our northeast, be it in the form of the Scandi, Ural or Siberian high, may well come into play regarding out weather patterns as we approach the end of this month. Its a long shot at this point, but something worth pointing out.
As stated above, in the more reliable timeframe, there are once again indications on the 18Z run of some possible marginal wintry type precip events, possibly beginning on next Sunday. IF the uppers continue to stay below -5, preferably below -6 to -7, and IF we see that sub 528 dam air arrive, then there is a good potential, at this point anyway, for some snowfall, beginning at the back end of the coming weekend.
However, all of the above is subject to the usual caveats that everyone is only too well aware of by now. It would also be worth noting that prior to the arrival of this potentially wintry evolution, things are shown to be exceptionally stormy next weekend. Some areas could record some very high wind gusts.
In a nutshell, the outlook is trending towards quite interesting from interesting in terms of wintry potential.
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This regurgitation again of what we can all read from some of your favourite posters on the netweather fora anyway is a tad tedious at this point in my opinionSnowaddict wrote: »Many of the latest outputs are simply very good for Ireland. At this point, with so much changing from run to run its not wise to do a complete analysis of one run, however I think the link to the post below sums up the whole thing. At this point, one would have to think that the chances of snowfall over Ireland during the next 10 days or so have increased somewhat at this point.
Its quite interesting that these charts are making it into the T+144 timeframe on some of the most recent NWP outputs.
I think the post below from an individual who accurately forecast the post Xmas colder scenario sums up the potential that may lie ahead. At this point I will try to resist ramping, but if these charts do keep appearing as we head towards the rather more reliable timeframe, ie. sub T+96, then it's game on.
PS: That 12Z GFS today was fantastic, showing both cold zonality and very cold easterlies.
Interesting times ahead:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52443&view=findpost&p=1423206
Regards,
SA.
The realistic outlook for the forseeable for Ireland is rain.It's also the only precipitation that we've had in recent weeks since you have been bringing us your summary of whats posted on netweather.
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
Thats about as south westerly and realistic as one can be as regards whats ahead by the way.
No amount of thrawling gfs ensembles for odd permutations hanges that.0 -
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