Model mood thread - warning, ramp ahead!!

10-10-20

Sorry - I got confused between threads. The other thread seems to be the live-update one...

Snowaddict

Many of the latest outputs are simply very good for Ireland. At this point, with so much changing from run to run its not wise to do a complete analysis of one run, however I think the link to the post below sums up the whole thing. At this point, one would have to think that the chances of snowfall over Ireland during the next 10 days or so have increased somewhat at this point.

Its quite interesting that these charts are making it into the T+144 timeframe on some of the most recent NWP outputs.

I think the post below from an individual who accurately forecast the post Xmas colder scenario sums up the potential that may lie ahead. At this point I will try to resist ramping, but if these charts do keep appearing as we head towards the rather more reliable timeframe, ie. sub T+96, then it's game on.

PS: That 12Z GFS today was fantastic, showing both cold zonality and very cold easterlies .

Interesting times ahead:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52443&view=findpost&p=1423206

Regards,
SA.

Snowaddict

An interesting set of 18Z ensembles. It would appear that some some colder options may well be on the cards.

Some good support there for that colder incursion beginning that back end of this weekend, with some interesting runs for the FI part of this run to say the least.

Since this is the model mood thread with predictions allowed I would say that there is a good chance at this point of at least some snowfall occuring over Ireland within the next 10 days. What I would also say is that although the end of the month is very much still in FI, I would think that there is a fair chance for a renewed blocking pattern to emerge. Now it may come to nothing and I certainly don't want to raise a false hope, but that high pressure to our northeast, be it in the form of the Scandi, Ural or Siberian high, may well come into play regarding out weather patterns as we approach the end of this month. Its a long shot at this point, but something worth pointing out.

As stated above, in the more reliable timeframe, there are once again indications on the 18Z run of some possible marginal wintry type precip events, possibly beginning on next Sunday. IF the uppers continue to stay below -5, preferably below -6 to -7, and IF we see that sub 528 dam air arrive, then there is a good potential, at this point anyway, for some snowfall, beginning at the back end of the coming weekend.

However, all of the above is subject to the usual caveats that everyone is only too well aware of by now. It would also be worth noting that prior to the arrival of this potentially wintry evolution, things are shown to be exceptionally stormy next weekend. Some areas could record some very high wind gusts.

In a nutshell, the outlook is trending towards quite interesting from interesting in terms of wintry potential.

Snowaddict

Snowaddict wrote: »

Many of the latest outputs are simply very good for Ireland. At this point, with so much changing from run to run its not wise to do a complete analysis of one run, however I think the link to the post below sums up the whole thing. At this point, one would have to think that the chances of snowfall over Ireland during the next 10 days or so have increased somewhat at this point.

Its quite interesting that these charts are making it into the T+144 timeframe on some of the most recent NWP outputs.

I think the post below from an individual who accurately forecast the post Xmas colder scenario sums up the potential that may lie ahead. At this point I will try to resist ramping, but if these charts do keep appearing as we head towards the rather more reliable timeframe, ie. sub T+96, then it's game on.

PS: That 12Z GFS today was fantastic, showing both cold zonality and very cold easterlies .

Interesting times ahead:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52443&view=findpost&p=1423206

Regards,
SA.

This regurgitation again of what we can all read from some of your favourite posters on the netweather fora anyway is a tad tedious at this point in my opinion

The realistic outlook for the forseeable for Ireland is rain.It's also the only precipitation that we've had in recent weeks since you have been bringing us your summary of whats posted on netweather.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Thats about as south westerly and realistic as one can be as regards whats ahead by the way.
No amount of thrawling gfs ensembles for odd permutations hanges that.

rc28

I know something else that's getting tedious :rolleyes:;)

kerry1960

Then again might just dip a toe in the ramping pool meself

Snowaddict

kerry1960 wrote: »

Then again might just dip a toe in the ramping pool meself

Indeed . And of course its FI, but look at the ECM T+216 chart, its certainly interesting to say the least. That high pressure to the north northeast is certainly exerting an influence at this point in the run.

Supercell

Thanks everyone for the forecasts and ramping.
This thread is turning into another model analysis thread though which decended a little.
I think its best that we return to the old format of having threads for special rain/wind/snow/thunder etc events as they crop up on the forecast horizon.
Thanks again and ohh one last ramp...I forecast 15cm snow here on Saturday :P

Deep Easterly

kerry1960 wrote: »

Then again might just dip a toe in the ramping pool meself

Nice one Kerry.

I haven't see the full runs this evening, but from the charts I see here posted on Boards...

I'm loving it...:D