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Switch Cup?

abitlonely · 2009-01-01 09:51:34

Mr Magician takes a coin and places it under one of three cups, mixes them up and then lines them up for you to choose the one with the coin. When you choose the 1st, he picks up the 3rd to reveal it's not there. He now offers you the chance to opt for the 2nd cup instead of the 1st. Should you switch?

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01-01-2009 10:51am

#1

abitlonely

Closed Accounts Posts: 165 ✭✭

Join Date: July 2008

Posts: 161

Mr Magician takes a coin and places it under one of three cups,
mixes them up and then lines them up for you to choose the one with the coin.
When you choose the 1st, he picks up the 3rd to reveal it's not there.
He now offers you the chance to opt for the 2nd cup instead of the 1st.
Should you switch?

you should switch

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#2 04-02-2009 9:16pm
enimakat

Closed Accounts Posts: 66 ✭✭

Join Date: November 2008

Posts: 60

the curious incident of the dog in the nighttime and more recently the film 21 explain why you should switch!

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#3 13-02-2009 3:31am
MathsManiac

Registered Users Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭

Join Date: April 2007

Posts: 1571

This is referred to as the "Monty Hall problem". There's a substantial entry about it on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

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