Paddy Power Sale Today only

redarmyblues

Possibly not true

Back 100 @ 1/1 on KK PP's
Lay to win 112 @ 4/5 (available at 1.74 but only for €2)

After 5% commissions, it works out at Up €6.40 or Up € 4.08.
One slightly worse than the deposit rate and one slightly better.
I sure if I fiddle around with them, I'd get them to match.

Don't forget to deduct DIRT from the Interest earned. I don;t want to labour the point but I used the Post Office analogy to point out that the arb is not the arb of the year as WB claimed.

1/1 is value on KK wining another All Ireland Hurling Title.
Tell me who is going to stop them?

I asked for argument to justify this opinion; you have merely provided another bald assertion. Since you have such strong opinions on the matter it is not too much too ask you provide a synopsis on this years senior hurling assigning a percentage value to the chances of each of the first 7 teams in the betting.

Perhaps you could add a little analysis as to why you recommend taking any levels available on KK at this time.

wixfjord

Just reading this thread and I have to say I agree with read my blues re: kilkenny being a value bet. I cannot understand why someone would invest a large sum of money (because anyone who takes that price would want to) on a season which isnt near to starting. What happens if Henry Shefflin does his cruicate, if Noel Hickie retires, if they have an awful league. Also, you only have to look at previous years to see what can happen in one game. Galway and Wexford have both surprised them in recent years. Also on the back of one, albeit near perfect, performance against a Waterford side, who not only froze, but could have very nearly lost to Wexford, (a team Kilkenny thrashes) Kilkenny are 4/6 / evens? I dont agree. No team should be that short for what is after all a marathon not a sprint.

Frankdtank

Was in powers today and got 10/1 on Fingeronthepulse 7/4 to win the 1.45 at leopardstown tomorrow and spurs to beat wigan also 7/4. Couldn't believe the odds works out at around 13/2. Fingeronthepulse is clear favourite and should take alot of beating and if i was picking a result in the soccer id go for spurs. I know its by no means a certainty but 10/1 is some value. Any thoughts?

redarmyblues

Sure Powers Are Magic
&
Some People Are Mugs
and don't realise it

okidoki987

Redarmy
I think you need to have a look at the size of that chip on your shoulder.

This is the gambling fourm and not for having a pop at a former employer
for whatever reason.

Heard Powers were giving 6/4 Utd to bt Chelsea yesterday?

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

Say you got had e200 on KK @ 1/1 with Powers, laid them back for e214 @1.8 on betfair, you would win e14 come what may come September. If you were to take the e385 and put it on deposit @5% for 9 months you will earn e14.50 in interest. Therefore it would probably be more profitable and possibly more fun to put the money into the Post Office instead of Arbing on Kilkenny in the egg and spoon races.

I would encourage people to be skeptcial when it comes to betting beware of greeks bearing gifts and all that. I do not see the sense in taking a short price in an tournament that does not start for six months and has a history of throwing up suprises, others may disagree , but I think that the paltry sums matched on the machine on this event bears out what I say.

Bookmakers are not above encouraging their employees to come on to betting forums to promote them so when I see an unequivocally uncritical thread concerning the slickest marketing operation in bookmaking I get suspicious of spam, however I am glad to see that whatsupdoc conceded his first post was late as that was one of the things that originally concerned me.

OK, arb of the year may be overstating it a bit, but it's certainly a decent free bet.

Put it like this:

• €300 on KK at Evs.
  
• Lay €300 at 1.6 (could be done quite easy over the next few months - the liquidity is not there yet but the bet could be placed in stages before September).

That's a free €120 should they win with no risk. You can call people mugs all you want but that's a decent bloody bet.

OK, if you couldn't get it all matched at 1.6 you'd have to raise it a few ticks, but you see what I'm getting at.

If I walked up to you in the street and said "If Kilkenny win the All Ireland, you can have €120. If they lose, you don't owe any money." would you say no thanks? You'd be a mug not to take that offer.

redarmyblues

Lay €300 at 1.6 (could be done quite easy over the next few months - the liquidity is not there yet but the bet could be placed in stages before September).

There is no 1.6 to lay, there is 1.95 on betdaq, with stg179 done at that amount. If you want to close down your hypothetical e300 @ 2.0 today, you will have a free e15 less commission.

Your post is no more than wishful thinking.

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

There is no 1.6 to lay, there is 1.95 on betdaq, with stg179 done at that amount. If you want to close down your hypothetical e300 @ 2.0 today, you will have a free e15 less commission.

Your post is no more than wishful thinking.

Did you read my post?

Why would you want to lay it all today? The final is not until September.

Right now there is no 1.6. In fact, there's no liquidity at all. But there's plenty of time to get that bet matched in stages before September. There's only 514 quid matched ( in total) at the time of writing on KK on Betfair. It's January, the market wont mature until the summer.

So far on Betfair, a good chunk of the money that was actually matched was at 1.65 - so I don't think my price is unrealistic at all. I'd safely say that more than 300 quid will be matched on KK at 1.6 before September.

redarmyblues

Why would you want to lay it all today? The final is not until September.

Right now there is no 1.6. In fact, there's no liquidity at all. But there's plenty of time to get that bet matched in stages before September. There's only 514 quid matched ( in total) at the time of writing on KK on Betfair. It's January, the market wont mature until the summer.

So far on Betfair, a good chunk of the money that was actually matched was at 1.65 - so I don't think my price is unrealistic at all. I'd safely say that more than 300 quid will be matched on KK at 1.6 before September.

KK could be knocked out by September, what you are talking about is not an arb, an arb is when you more or less simultaneously back and lay at the same time to ensure a profit by laying at a smaller price that the back price. If I were to give you 2.0 tonight about KK you can arb it on betdaq at 1.95 (where is some liquidity). Your strategy is a back to lay strategy, whereby you take my 2.0 and hold the position in the expectation that the price will contract from the (1.95 available now) in the future. This strategy contains risk unlike an arb which is risk free. The risk is in inherent in that KK could drift between now and the first game of the tournament due to a poor league campiaign and/or they could be knocked out before they hit your target lay of 1.6

Intrestingly, utilising the mean of the back/lay spread on to betdaq predicts that blue and pink will meet at 1.82. I would expect that When the Uk layers go up on the SHC at least one will go 1.73 (8/11) in an attempt to lure new internet custom from the ROI, or because they have a view. In that case exchange layers would go to the next fractional click to compete.

wb

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.

_____



Listen mate, I'm the last person who needs a lecture on how backing and laying works. I'm at this a pretty long time to be honest, and even spent some time doing it full time. We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I think it's a great opportunity (I missed it by the way) as I'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out. I'd give an educated guess that such sums will be matched before the championship starts too.

Big Chief

wb wrote: »

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.
_____
Listen mate, I'm the last person who needs a lecture on how backing and laying works. I'm at this a pretty long time to be honest, and even spent some time doing it full time. We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I think it's a great opportunity (I missed it by the way) as I'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out. I'd give an educated guess that such sums will be matched before the championship starts too.

kilkenny will not be knocked out before september and i 100% agree, anyone who actually watches the hurling would realise this

they were voted the best team ever in 2008, the all ireland final might aswell have been played against some school lads. This is the best team that kilkenny ever had and evs is the biggest steal, i would have lumped on it but heh.. i never caught it

as for betting and laying, you will get 1.6 easy... infact hold out long enough (and take the gamble) and im almost 95% sure they will reach the final, or atleast the semi when odds will be piled on them

agree with teh statement of always right forum, he is talking a good and sound bet.. no point arguing against it, some people (like myself) will completely agree with it..

redarmyblues

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.

Sorry WB it was you introduced certainty in to the thread when you posted about Arb of the year. An Arber by definition seeks to exclude uncertainty from his betting transactions (see Novembers Betting Business for some interesting Industry reaction to the issue) What is wrong with certainties anyway, I know of no punters (this writer included) who disdains them. I merely pointed out that the capital requirements of the KK position tended to outweigh the gains.

I

'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out

Perhaps this also belongs on the 'things that are certain to happen' forum. I am not omniscient so thus not certain about the issue but a glance at the markets suggests to me that it is probable that KK will trade, all things being equal, in and around 1.8 before the tournament starts. It is unlikely that anything will be done below 1.67 since you can have that from Powers or Ladcrooks without commission deducted.

BTW WB you and I are not acquainted so therefore please drop the mate thing.

wb

No, were not acquainted thankfully.

Jaysus. Get a life. Someone posted up a very good bet and you've been completely pedantic about it. My view is that you could easily lay off that bet for a decent free bet. Simple as that. If you don't agree - fair enough!

Arbing is not actually risk free. Having done some of it, prices can change and sometimes a loss must be incurred.

Let's just wait and see, but from being heavily involved in this game for a few years, I think you'll find that come the Championship, I'll be proved right and those sums will be matched at those prices.

But yes, It's not 100% certain. I should have said that I 'feel' pretty certain, but I think most other readers know what sort of odds they'll be anyway.

Even 1.8 for a free bet is reasonable IMO.

redarmyblues

No, were not acquainted thankfully

.

I am kind of begining to wish we were, you look very cute on your bagpipes website. Nice dress but lose the moustache.
: )

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

.

I am kind of begining to wish we were, you look very cute on your bagpipes website. Nice dress but lose the moustache.
: )

Not me I'm afraid!

Shurwhynot

Got Crouch to score 1st last night at 10/1! Thank you PP

okidoki987

Bugger must have missed that one, was in PP's lunch time and didn't see it.
Ended up backing Crouch at 13/2 in Boylers which was best price
at the time.
Anyways happy enough he did it.

jkelly85

just called into PP on the way home from college 7/1 ronaldo to get the first goal i was having some of that:cool: session on 2nite if ronaldo comes through for me

okidoki987

Unlucky, never even got a run for your money.

jkelly85

okidoki987 wrote: »

Unlucky, never even got a run for your money.

oh stop watchin the match and my bet over in a min, still had da session:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

wb

wb wrote: »

Did you read my post?

Why would you want to lay it all today? The final is not until September.

Right now there is no 1.6. In fact, there's no liquidity at all. But there's plenty of time to get that bet matched in stages before September. There's only 514 quid matched ( in total) at the time of writing on KK on Betfair. It's January, the market wont mature until the summer.

So far on Betfair, a good chunk of the money that was actually matched was at 1.65 - so I don't think my price is unrealistic at all. I'd safely say that more than 300 quid will be matched on KK at 1.6 before September.

Hate to say I told you so but...

Collie D

Result against the Leeside chip on the shoulder brigade couldn't have hurt. Still regretting not seeing that evens.

fergalmejergal

How do you make your own football accumalator on paddypower.com ?

Thanks

Collie D

fergalmejergal wrote: »

How do you make your own football accumalator on paddypower.com ?

Thanks

Just click on your selections and they should all come up