Forecasters warn of a record breaking January cold snap

Danno

From today's Irish Independent

IT MAY only be the first days of the new year, but forecasters are already predicting January will be record-breakingly cold.
Parts of the country experienced the coldest December in almost 30 years. Now British-based meteorology service Weatheraction has predicted this will be one of the five coldest Januarys on record.
Met Eireann will not give predictions for any longer than eight or nine days ahead, but forecaster Michael Cleary agreed that the coming days would be cold and dry, with a high risk of frost and fog.
"The weather has been kind of quiet, and colder than normal," Mr Cleary said, explaining that the lack of wind facilitates the build-up of frost and foggy patches. Motorists should continue to take care driving at night and in the early mornings, when subzero temperatures may mean ice on roads.
This morning's blanket of frost will clear from most areas, but may linger in parts of the north midlands until afternoon.
The south will be mostly cloudy, but further north some sunny breaks will develop. Highest temperatures will range from three to eight degrees.
Bright
The cold weather is set to continue for several more days. Tonight and tomorrow will be dry, with temperatures staying below normal.
We can look forward to some bright spells by day, with frost and fog at night. The frost and fog will be slow to clear from some areas tomorrow.
Sunday brings the threat of some rain or sleet, affecting the north and west.
On Monday, this will affect other areas, and there is the possibility that it may turn to snow in places, while winds for the most part will be light and variable.
Meanwhile, the co-ordinator of a national helpline has asked members of the public to be vigilant about checking in with their housebound or elderly neighbours during the bleak month of January.
Mary Nally, chief executive of the Senior Helpline, a confidential listening service for older people by older people, said New Year and the month of January can be a time of hidden loneliness and heartache for many older people.
She warned that pensioners can be particularly susceptible to loneliness at this time, because the memory of lost family or friends can be triggered at Christmas and over the New Year period.

WeatherAction by Piers Corbyn has been slated quite a few times on TWO... here is an interesting atricle from them...

Visit: http://weatheraction.com/id10.html

Thats it...
Winter is over.

Piers came out with the same dire warning of a cold snap in january 2007 and look what happened..record breaking alright...for daffodills!

Gonzo

yeah those newspaper articles always turn out to be rubbish, surprised at the Irish Independant for publishing such an article ususally found in The Sun or Daily Mirror.

shamwari

TBH, a lot of articles like this disappoint me as they seem to be more to do with filling column inches rather than imparting meaningful news. On the subject of disappointing things, the accuracy of some of the long range models posted here of late have been woefully wide of the mark to the point where I wonder if they were produced like that solely to generate interest in them.... All those models did was to raise expectations and to facilitate ramping, despite the mods and learned ones on this site being wise enough to preface their comments appropriately that everything was in FI.

Looking forward based on my own gut instinct and non-scientific observations, I don't think we are going to get any significant snow in the next while. What we need is a proper artic blast from the North or similar from Eastern Europe. I reckon that the current bout of nondescript cold will eventually succumb to the regular prevailing influences of the atlantic, and not to something which will yield the wintry outbreak we all crave !

Danno

Shamwari, correct indeed. I was indeed swept up in the idea of a severe cold spell coming, even though I have been watching charts for 5 years now. The manner in how GFS, ECMWF and the rest were adamant on this spell really caught my eye, whereas similar and less adamant charts in the past would have been dismissed by myself.
I suppose it is another tangent to the learning curve!

Still, at the end of the day, if the models were 100% then this would all be boring - aka too predictable. I suppose the fun is in the will it/wont it! Hopefully, this rollercoaster winter will continue, but I'd be hoping for more deliverance from it as we are supposed to be entering in to the main business of it at the moment.

Snowbie

Ditto and well said shamwari. The models always do this and can have a negative impact all round.
Both the GFS, UKMO and surprisingly ECM where terrible. I usually go with ECM for the reality check and GFS in the short term(being +24hrs for forecasting)

As the other two mods on this forum know, i am very reluctant to allow another model thread on this forum again.
Snowaddict has been very informative with his posting but all one sided in terms of the cold stuff but tbh i like weather all round and generally tend to look at the models with every release up T+120hrs and do a comparison but in the last two weeks there has been very little in model agreement. I'm not surprised due to the nature of high pressure but disappointed as again Ireland on the wrong side or the HP centred in a less favourable cold spot. They are easy to forecast weather from them but slight movement in the centre can alter the weather enormously.

If there is one plus, Europe has and will cool down moreso for another easterly which will have a better impact on this island if one materialises later on in Winter.
With a slack flow coming from the east, the Dewpoints in this country over the last day have tumbled to sub zero levels as the UK is struggling temp wise to get above 0C. This is very notable due to wind travelling over the Irish sea and onshore east here.

Indeed.
-11 daytime maxes in Eastern Europe and moscow at the moment...It's is a crying shame that we dont have a 1050 northern scandi high.

You'd know all about the cold if we had one of them!

Alas when we get back to zonality,the evenings will have lengthened by the time it's finished and we will have lost some of the best time for that set up.

Mind you the February '91 spell started around the 10th and lasted to about the 20th with many mini blizzards off the irish sea in the East and several inches of snow.
Plenty of time yet.Just dont get sucked in by model promise.

Deep Easterly

Good points Karl. Despite big let downs in the models over the last couple of weeks, certainly what most models tended toward over the last while was a cooler, drier spell. Ok, some of the dream charts didn't pay off, but the trend was there, and that is what has happened more or less, cool, dry conditions under an easterly influence, albiet very much moderated.

I give full credit to the ECM for showing this trend way out in FI, while the little faith had in the GFS has now completely gone, as anything they showed was always following previous ECM set ups anyway. (as usual).

I have been an avid model watcher for the last couple of years and am only too well aware of the dangers. I am hardened, but I realise others are not, and despite contant warnings by Karl, myself and Snowaddict, some put absolute faith in charts outside 96hrs.

I will be locking the model outlook thread that is currently opened. It saddens me to do this, but the idea of it has been lost and hopes unfortunatly have been and will continue to be raised only to be destroyed if left opened.

This is not to say that if any big events are shown within the crucial 72hrs or less timeframe that seperate threads can't be opened to deal with it, and I am looking forward to Snowaddict's continued very much respected contribution to the forum despite the MO thread closure.

Danno

Just a quick Q... can we not have a MO discussion thread when there is mild weather forecast?

snowfan

Just seen the Farming Forecast on RTE 1

The rest of the week will be cold with night frosts

However from this Thursday, mild south westerlies will prevail though Thursday and Friday will remain dry

On Saturday, it is expected that rain and mild weather will sweep in from the Atlantic

Just the type of weather news I wanted to hear before returning to work for the new year tomorrow :mad:

There has been absolutely ZERO pay-off to this recent "cool" spell :mad:
Another case of near but yet so far for Ireland

SF

nacho libre

I feel once the Atlantic takes over on Friday we'll be in for a mild January. then we can look forward to the ideal wintry setup sometime in February that would have delivered more had it come a month earlier. Nearly always the way with Irish winter weather! Still, i've lowered my expectations. A couple of inches of lying snow would suffice at this stage. I've given up on the idea of seeing a foot of accumulated snow this winter.

Danno

Danno wrote: »

Just a quick Q... can we not have a MO discussion thread when there is mild weather forecast?

Thats what I'd be wondering too...how are we to discuss weather in a weather discussion forum without a model thread? Some solution will have to be found.I havent time to think of one at the moment as I'll be mostly offline for a while.

Deep Easterly wrote:

I am hardened, but I realise others are not, and despite contant warnings by Karl, myself and Snowaddict, some put absolute faith in charts outside 96hrs.

I think it would be fairer to say that much of the tempering of the analysis in the threads over Xmas was done too softly.
Looking back on it,it's as if the caveats were mentioned so briefly as to be buried deep enough in the posts as to be ignored.
Any stronger mention of caveats was of course met with an onslaught...
On one occasion indeed there was strong direction that peoples dreaming about models was not to be disturbed...and now....... we are to have no model discussion at all at all??

I guess thats the kid in some of us getting carried away.

nacho libre

it's very simple, model discussions should be allowed but no one should be accused of making personal remarks or taking digs at people by asking for caution and putting in caveats if people are seen to be ramping up the potential. I appreciate people here enjoy the speculation and the science involved but we must all realise that anything the models say with regard to cold weather in the future is to be taken with a pinch (nay a continent) of salt! because of our location.

shamwari

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats what I'd be wondering too...how are we to discuss weather in a weather discussion forum without a model thread? Some solution will have to be found.I havent time to think of one at the moment as I'll be mostly offline for a while.I think it would be fairer to say that much of the tempering of the analysis in the threads over Xmas was done too softly.
Looking back on it,it's as if the caveats were mentioned so briefly as to be buried deep enough in the posts as to be ignored.
Any stronger mention of caveats was of course met with an onslaught...
On one occasion indeed there was strong direction that peoples dreaming about models was not to be disturbed...and now....... we are to have no model discussion at all at all??

I guess thats the kid in some of us getting carried away.

The kid in some of us certainly did get carried away! However, the caveats were there, all it took was proper reading to see them

Villain

I think not allowing discussion's past +72 is a little OTT, I know the charts have been all over the place, but looking at charts and discussing what could happen if those charts came off helps people understand Model's and see what is needed for a cold spell.

No model discussion would be a real shame imo

Snowbie

In all fairness to Deep Easterly, i know where he is coming from. That first model thread had a certain TWO and NW'esque to it. It turned out to be very whingy and emotional at times. Some of us just wanted to express our feelings more than contribute to that thread.

Mods where ignored on that thread also, so the second one was started and still ignored. If we have a model discussion thread, well we should stick to model discussing. It appeared we can't even do that on the second thread and i had to move posts much ado about models from there yesterday too. My patience has all but ran out on this forum due to this.

IMHO, I don't see any justice in discussing models after T+120hrs tbh as it is experimental in global forecasting NWP's but i have no problem with it. Rarely anything comes off nor trends are witnessed though and i think it is a waste of peoples time and only shows how inaccurate the models (not the poster who can interpret the models) are.

So if we now get a setup that is within T+120hrs and less, it is still no more likely to come off, we will have to wait untill well into reliable timeframe to paint a better picture (T+72hrs). Even then what can you forecast? We can forecast wind or fine weather or even rain but not the time of it occuring, change is still possible within this timeframe.

We now move into T+24hrs and a forecast for this timeframe 24hrs out is only 73% accurate. We all know how this can change and basically 3 out of 4 times that forecast comes off but still a good high % of the time (or the other 27%) usually wins out and we get very little in the way of the forecast that was produced. Eg: Nov 28th forecast for Nov 29th in Dublin was for clear and temps around 4C. Well here in N Dublin got freezing fog and temps just to 1C while in S Dublin temps got upto 4C and clear skies. So the forecast for Dublin was right in one area and wrong in the other or one forecast was in the 73% cat while the other fell into the 27% cat. This is just one example in a bajillion i could give.

What i find hard to follow is that we wish to talk about models that shows a potent N'ly E'ly or even a severe wind storm 7-10 days away. There is less than 5% chance of anything like that coming off with that. They chop and change too often as some of the less experience will know by now.

200motels

Villain wrote: »

I think not allowing discussion's past +72 is a little OTT, I know the charts have been all over the place, but looking at charts and discussing what could happen if those charts came off helps people understand Model's and see what is needed for a cold spell.

No model discussion would be a real shame imo

I couldn't agree more, it's fun trying to predict the weather in Ireland with the help of models, we all know anything more than T24 can be wrong and the further you go out the more wayward the forecast models get, but I like discussing them and that's the whole idea of the boards, like the weather is so unpredictable the weather boards should be the same, we don't want every thing so scientific and perfect. So what if we go off topic now and again it makes it interesting to hear different views.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

On one occasion indeed there was strong direction that peoples dreaming about models was not to be disturbed...and now....... we are to have no model discussion at all at all??

I guess thats the kid in some of us getting carried away.

When the model outlook was open and in full swing, almost every post by you was to remind people that the charts they were looking were FI. That I accept as valid. But at the same time that is the purpose of a model outlook thread, to look beyond the reliable time frame and to try and spot trends that may emerge, and personally I have no problem with this.

However, the thread will remain closed. No model outlook thread will equal no fantasy talk about fantasy island outlooks; one comes with the other and cannot be seperated.

I would have thought you would have approved considering this?

Villain

So we can't discuss any Models now on this forum?

Mothman

200motels wrote: »

we all know anything more than T24 can be wrong

Evidently not, plenty examples during past 10 days here.

I've already stated elsewhere that I generally ignore model threads because of the "noise" in them, but there is a demand for them, though most demand is usually by cold/snow wanters with a heavy bias towards this direction with the discussion.
The issue thus far is striking a balance in keeping the noise to an acceptable level (or diverting the noise) This has not happened and the mods have lost patience with the chaos that ensued and suddenly this forum does not feel like the place it was a month ago.

I agree with BB that a solution needs to be found, but it shouldn't be solely left on the mods shoulders but from among the all year regulars here of which there are many.

I'm a little alarmed by Snowbie saying

My patience has all but ran out on this forum due to this.

His input here is huge on all levels and I wouldn't like see content in this forum contributing to reducing his input

Bear in mind, once we get out of this HP setup the forum will run smoothly and we won't have time to look into FI and discuss it!!

Also I'm delighted that we are very off topic regarding OP as the best thing for that tabloid journalism is to ignore it!

Mr Benevolent

So we can't discuss any Models now on this forum?

'Course we can, but it'd be better to have EVERYTHING outside T+72 be put into one FI thread, regardless of the juiciness factor.

Alternatively, just don't post anything that relates to anything >T+72)

Danno

Two Model Output Threads? One for 24 -> 144 hours, then another for 144 -> 384 hours.

Mothman

I think there is merit in persuing the angles of thought by Confab and Danno, but I suggest the cutoff period somewhere in between. 72hrs too short, 144hrs too long

Danno

120hrs instead? What do Karl and Pat think? They be the poor souls modding them. Perhaps a thread each lads!!! Who gets the FI thread? :P :P :P

Mothman

And a limit with the outside of FI. I think rediculous entertaining anything approaching 300 hrs even in the FI thread.

LEIN

Maybe the name of this thread should be changed because its very confusing to anyone from the outside looking for this record cold snap and finding posts trying to save the model thread. They wont have a clue what the hell you guys are talking about.

Danno

True, this is gone waaaay off topic!!!

forkassed

Whats wrong with a model thread that we can speculate about what may occur at anything up to +384?
Sure it most likely wont come off and the thread will be clogged with alot of rubbish posts, but its fun for looking at trends and whether they come off or not.

Also if something notable like a storm or cold spell comes in to the 72hrs range a new thread is started for the event in question.

^^^^
This is how it has worked up until now i think and i dont see a problem with it:)

Maybe a Weather Open Discussion thread that people can post their views on current model output/ask questions in or whatever. A thread the mods dont feel they have to go into and delete half the posts because they dont relate to the thread title.

Anyway just postin my .02c. If nothing changes i wont have a problem either

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I would have thought you would have approved considering this?

I think some options have been mentioned as to a way foward.
Some balance has to be struck I think between wanting to do as you suggest ie look for trends or indeed dwell on the what if and wow aspects of some of the repeated [unfortunately] ridiculous maps FI throws up and realism.

As this is a public forum,it's not an easy situation to develop given what mothman has rightly called and what I would describe as a cold lovers bias in model threads.
The driving force behind my annoyance with the direction of the Xmas model thread was just from experience FI rarely delivers 1% of it's most mouthwatering promises.

That and I'd suggest most casual visitors wouldn't have had a clue that what was being discussed wasn't going to happen even with the disclaimers.
In actual fact the sub routine of the disclaimers [including mine] could be read as driving the thread as a forecast/hopecast.People happening upon the thread from the wider boards audience via the front page of www.boards.ie or simply from casual browsing would be misled.

For all they knew We the posters of charts are "experts" by virtue of not being afraid to proclaim what we thought might happen.
Thats the problem that was annoying me-one ultimately of credibility.

In the early days of this forum,I think even now with the benefit of hindsight,weathercheck might admit that often he let his heart rule his head regarding threads here leading to much angst on this board and on one occasion one of the funnies rebuff's I've read from dappergent one of it's former mods.
That thread was moved to a private forum because it was so funny but hereare two of the the posts.. Dappergent was replying to mothman who had comment on WC's thread predicting blizzards in the East back in february 2005.

mothman wrote:

Well you can't get much further east than me, so I'm in the firing line.

I'll give a wind and snow report tomorrow... :rolleyes:

DapperGent wrote: »

Nail up some storm shutters and hide in the basement with your family. Better bring the dog in too. God willing you'll make it through the night. I'll be praying for you.

Hopefully the blizzards won't have snowed you in by tomorrow. Maybe go to the supermarket and stock up on canned food just in case.

Anyhow I digress..I guess like the weather over the longer term...nothing much changes

Danno

Jaysus, there is a old thread indeed... just 4 years now!!! LOL!!! We should have a humour subforum too! :P Nice find BB.

Mothman

LOL there's a blast from the east past