Dublin Central the By-election

yomchi

With the sad passing of Tony Gregory, who do people think should be the rightful heir of his seat?

Now doubt SF will put up a hard battle for it, they've been working for a seat there for a long time now, and seen as though Nicky Kehoe nearly took one before I reckon they're probably in the running.
Add into the mix, a politically damaged Bertie and FF, the race is wide open.

It's along way off no doubt, but they could spring it any time, escpecially with the Euro's coming up, no better time to muddy the waters!

Opinions?

CtrlSource

What's the rule for by-elections when an independent vacates the seat? Must it be held this year?

yomchi

Not necessarily. It could be anything up to 18 months! It'll depend really.

Victor

CtrlSource wrote: »

What's the rule for by-elections when an independent vacates the seat? Must it be held this year?

I don't know. For councils (no bye-elections, new members are co-opted) it is for the family of the deceased to decide.

I imagine the decision rests with the government, who won't rush into it.

Will Bertie be running at the next general election though?

Badabing

I'D say it will be this june same day as the locals and european elections, Bertie said he would retire when he was 60 which will be 2012. It's hard to call who would take the seat in a by-election SF and Fine Gael would be favourites.

Time Magazine

SF got less than half a quota in 2007 and they didn't pick up many Gregory (RIP) transfers (<13%), and Gregory himself didn't do amazingly (0.67 of a quota). I would say most of those votes were candidate- rather than politics-based votes.

I can't see SF pipping all other parties in such a first-past-the-post-esque election. With the current swings, it's FG's to lose I'd say.

yomchi

The Economist wrote: »

SF got less than half a quota in 2007 and they didn't pick up many Gregory (RIP) transfers (<13%), and Gregory himself didn't do amazingly (0.67 of a quota). I would say most of those votes were candidate- rather than politics-based votes.

I can't see SF pipping all other parties in such a first-past-the-post-esque election. With the current swings, it's FG's to lose I'd say.

True it will be tough with a first past the post result. FG will probably run Paschal Donoghue who hasn't got the publicit really to back him. Labour will run Eimear Costello who won't make it either, SF have a big name in Mary Lou, but I'm not sure she has the credentials in an area where local activism is to the fore. Thats where I think Christy Burke may have the advantage. FF are in disarray, with Bertie being exposed etc. It's hard one to call really. I can't see any of Tony G's old crew standing really, unless Maureen O'Sullivan does. And having said that, Gregory's vote was in steady decline anyway.

Time Magazine

Jon wrote: »

True it will be tough with a first past the post result. FG will probably run Paschal Donoghue who hasn't got the publicit really to back him.

A member of the Oireachtas in the party you'd really tip to win this election will have plenty publicity come the time, I suspect.

Sinn Féin will do well, no doubt. Mary Lou would probably get 20%+ of a vote, which of course would be a huge result SF, but probably not enough to get elected. You'd suspect a lot of FF voters will turn, or at least transfer, to FG though.

yomchi

Irish Indo today suspects the govt will run the BE on the same day as the locals and the euros in order to scupper Sinn Feins plans. That could and would mess things up a bit for SF in that area, it's going to be a tough one for both the BE and the euros for SF.