Value v advertised price.

ravendude

Bee wrote: »

Investors in shares usually say it is impossible to predict the future earnings of shares and it is useless to try to time a future market

The same probably applies to property prices

This is completely untrue.

Property is an illiquid asset, shares on the other hand are extremely liquid.
It will take someone months/years to sell a house, - a month or two at best to see a sale to its closing date.

Shares on the other hand are extremely liquid, - it being possible to buy/sell instantly. So share prices can rally and an investor can miss the rally very easily over the course of a few days or weeks.

Property prices do not rally over such short time periods due to property's illiquid nature. It is highly unlikely that someone who waits now is going to mistime the property market and "miss out" if the market picks up again , which virtually all sensible commentors agree ain't going to happen anytime soon.

who_ru

ravendude wrote: »

Prices will correct. Then we will see a flat to sluggish market until the next generation of suckers come of age.

Enough Said.

tk123

Sorry to hijack OP but i'd be interested to hear what people would value this house as : http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/10-st-itas-road-glasnevin-dublin-co&-city/DTCBT372453. I live in the area at the moment and would like to stay local but i think this is way overvalued when similar houses up the road in Santry/Whitehall/Drumcondra up to €100k less?

ntlbell

tk123 wrote: »

Sorry to hijack OP but i'd be interested to hear what people would value this house as : http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/10-st-itas-road-glasnevin-dublin-co&-city/DTCBT372453. I live in the area at the moment and would like to stay local but i think this is way overvalued when similar houses up the road in Santry/Whitehall/Drumcondra up to €100k less?

just about every single house you can find on daft/myhome right now is overvalued.

maybe have a look in 18 months time or so

jetski

ravendude wrote: »

There is a slim to negligable chance of of a rush to buy in the foreseeable future, even in the medium term. Usually when a major asset bust takes place, it is a generation before another rush or bubble will again eventuate. This is because the collective memory must first forget about the bust, which usually requires a new generation. Those of us (i.e. our generation) who were bitten by the bust will be less inclined to pay exorbitant prices in the future, having learnt about financial gravity (what goes up must come down) the hard way. The crazy prices we witnessed at the height of the boom, and still characterize most of the market today are simply out of kilter with wages and affordabillity. The crazy prices have been predicated by the irrational notion that prices would keep going up.
i.e. People were disposed to pay a mad price for their house because they believed it would be at a much higher price later.

They now clearly understand that the above is not reality and will be much less willing to pay through the nose in the future.

Prices will correct. Then we will see a flat to sluggish market until the next generation of suckers come of age.

pure comedy, im not being rude but come on

rockbeer

One thing it's important to remember when considering what offer to make is that you don't know the circumstances of the seller. Not everybody bought in 2005/06 and is now in negative equity. Some sellers will have owned their houses for ten, fifteen or more years and, with a large chunk of the mortgage gone, will be collecting a tidy profit even at 50% of peak.

Never be embarrassed about making any offer. What's the worst that can happen? The sellers says no. No big deal - make a higher offer or move on. There's no shortage of choice.

ntlbell

rockbeer wrote: »

One thing it's important to remember when considering what offer to make is that you don't know the circumstances of the seller. Not everybody bought in 2005/06 and is now in negative equity. Some sellers will have owned their houses for ten, fifteen or more years and, with a large chunk of the mortgage gone, will be collecting a tidy profit even at 50% of peak.

Never be embarrassed about making any offer. What's the worst that can happen? The sellers says no. No big deal - make a higher offer or move on. There's no shortage of choice.

That's why it's important to try and find out as much about the sellers circumstances and have as much information as possible before making a bid.

There's still far too much denial out there but the larger drops are starting to increase so maybe some realisation is starting to come to the market but there is still so far to go your better off just keep hammering away with the saving's increasing your deposit etc

saves you wasting their time and your own time

ellejay

Hi Shelley

I have also read on boards somewhere that if you're not emabarrassed by your offer, it's too high!!

I've been saving and saving and saving for a deposit on a house so in light of current circumstances, didn't know what to to.

The house was advertsied at 360k ...so I went to view it and put an offer in 300k. (about 20years old, 3bed semi, nice estate etc.)The EA actaully laughed at me and asked me was I serious, that was a joke not an offer. I was mortified!!!

Long story short, he phoned me back about three weeks later and asked me if the offer was still on table, I told him offer had dropped to 280. We eventually tenetatively settled on 290k.

Everyone told me I was crazy to buy at moment as prices will drop even more and will get much better value for money in few months. So I pulled out of sale. And already I can see the prices dropping.

The EA told me I was making the biggest mistake of my life. Then he phoned me back to say he had another viewing was I sure as this other couple had viewed before and were very interested. I started to wobble and thought I should go back and buy it, but persevered.

Then about two weeks later he phoned me to say that the vendours were taking the house off the maket and renting it out and just about to sign, was I sure? If I wanted to go through with sale, they'd drop 5k and I'd be in by Christams.

Naturally I'd thoughts of my own new house Christmas day, but Thank God I stood my ground and let it go.

I seriously thought I'd lost the house and made a huge mistake, but to this day it's still for sale, and hasn't been sold or rented out!!

I've no interest in it now, as I know I can get more value for my money.

But my moral of my story is
1)Put very very very low ofer in, you can always up it.
2)Don't be swayed by the EA's, they're unreal.
3)Go with your gut, if you feel you have to walk away, Run. Bigger and better is just around the corner.

Duckjob

ellejay wrote: »

The EA actaully laughed at me and asked me was I serious, that was a joke not an offer. I was mortified!!!

My answer to that would be it's the agent/seller that appears to be having a laugh with the asking price they've got up.

I don't see logically how any offer can be construed as ridiculous unless there's others bidding way above it.

A lot of EAs appear to be resorting in desparation now to embarrassment tactics to try to extort bubble prices out of naive buyers. Just say NO!!!

tk123

ellejay wrote: »

I told him offer had dropped to 280. We eventually tenetatively settled on 290k.

Lol well done - make them beg! :pac::D

bobbiw

2009 is not a time to buy, maybe 2012 when homes are 30% of what they are now.

You will be able to get that 1m home for 300k, of course it will be difficult to get the loan though.

bobbiw

If you are going to buy now you have to accept that you will loose money in the medium term.

So if you buy a place for say 350k, you need to accept that it will drop to 200k in the future.

(Personaly I think it will all go the way of Iceland)

But if you have to buy, go get preapproved for 100k, have your 20 or 30k deposit. Have the broker give you a letter from the bank to say that you are approved and the funds are available.

Then go to the estate agent with all that and tell them you will offer 80k max for the 150k place. If you can close in 4 weeks they might go for it.

They know they will be taking 50k for those places in a years time. Its not like Mullhudart is going to boom in the next decade.