Relegation Value

cson

Premiership Table
8 Hull 21 3 2 5 10 20 4 4 3 18 19 -11 27
9 Fulham 19 6 3 1 16 8 0 5 4 2 6 4 26
10 West Ham 21 4 1 5 13 15 3 4 4 13 15 -4 26
11 Newcastle 21 4 4 3 18 19 1 4 5 10 15 -6 23
12 Bolton 21 3 2 5 8 11 4 0 7 14 18 -7 23
13 Sunderland 21 3 2 5 11 13 3 3 5 11 17 -8 23
14 Portsmouth 20 4 2 4 14 17 2 3 5 7 16 -12 23
15 Man City 20 5 0 5 24 11 1 4 5 14 19 8 22
16 Middlesbrough 21 3 4 4 10 15 2 2 6 8 15 -12 21
17 Stoke 21 5 3 3 12 11 0 3 7 6 22 -15 21

18 Tottenham 21 3 3 4 7 7 2 2 7 13 19 -6 20
19 Blackburn 20 2 3 5 10 17 2 3 5 12 19 -14 18
20 West Brom 21 4 2 4 13 16 1 1 9 4 21 -20 18

The Market (PP Prices)
West Brom 2/7
Stoke 4/9
Portsmouth 5/2
Hull 10/3
Blackburn 10/3
Bolton 7/2
Sunderland 9/2
Middlesborough 9/2
West Ham 9/2
Newcastle 6/1
Spurs 10/1
Fulham 12/1
Man City 18/1

Out of those I think there has to be value in Hull @ 10/3 (who play Arsenal at the weekend) and West Ham @ 9/2 who look likely to lose both Craig Bellemy and Scott Parker this January.

Browney7

I had a small stake on Blackburn at the start at 11/1 and I think Hull are the value alright. Their bubble seems to have burst but are only 13 points off 40 which has been the magic number for years, then again it is a very tight league this year and maybe Boro could be in trouble too.

dsmythy

Middlesboro and Blackburn would interest me. There's no excuses for league positions now if your in that part of the table you deserve to be there. If you put Allardyce as a one Bolton wonder you can't see a potentially non-Santa Cruz-having Blackburn being safe. Middlesborough really disappointing this year in everything. Pretty large price for them considering where they are.

Neither of them are showing home form either. Fulham have made a Premier League living on their home form, something which Stoke seem to also possess. Makes Stoke for me one to back to avoid relegation.

Bobeagleburger

Browney7 wrote: »

I had a small stake on Blackburn at the start at 11/1 and I think Hull are the value alright. Their bubble seems to have burst but are only 13 points off 40 which has been the magic number for years, then again it is a very tight league this year and maybe Boro could be in trouble too.

The last 10 seasons the following points would have been enough to stay up 36,38,35,34,34,43,37,35,34,37 so the average here is 36 points. I think Hull will probably pick up another 10 points pretty easily in the final 17 games.

Portsmouth have been terrible the last few months are may well drop.

Spurs @ 10/1 is interesting...

dsmythy

rarnes1 wrote: »

The last 10 seasons the following points would have been enough to stay up 36,38,35,34,34,43,37,35,34,37 so the average here is 36 points. I think Hull will probably pick up another 10 points pretty easily in the final 17 games.

Portsmouth have been terrible the last few months are may well drop.

Spurs @ 10/1 is interesting...

The bottom of the Prem is unusally tight this year though. I reckon a team might need at least 40 to be sure.

Woodgate

rarnes1 wrote: »

Spurs @ 10/1 is interesting...

Wash your mouth out!!!!!:D

Bobeagleburger

Woodgate wrote: »

Wash your mouth out!!!!!:D

lol, was wondering what type of reaction that might get. They should be ok but following last years Carling Cup didnt they only win 1/2 games from that and the end of season?

A repeat of that and they would be doomed

cson

While Spurs in theory should be safe, they are not too good to go down. West Ham in 02/03 being the prime example. They're a team I'd almost back to lay as the distraction of the Carling Cup could effect them in the league in the next month or so.

Keano

dsmythy wrote: »

Middlesboro and Blackburn would interest me. There's no excuses for league positions now if your in that part of the table you deserve to be there. If you put Allardyce as a one Bolton wonder you can't see a potentially non-Santa Cruz-having Blackburn being safe. Middlesborough really disappointing this year in everything. Pretty large price for them considering where they are.

Neither of them are showing home form either. Fulham have made a Premier League living on their home form, something which Stoke seem to also possess. Makes Stoke for me one to back to avoid relegation.

I would agree with you that Middlesborough @ 9/2 looks like good value. I think they are going to sell Downing. Cannot imagine they are exactly financially stable and being offered big bucks for their top player(?) they will have to sell him

Bubs101

I think West Brom, West Ham and Hull will go down but Fulham look good value. Don't have a great team and could hit a run of bad form. Also, if West Brom were the same on Betfair I'd consider laying them. It's too tight for the best of the Championship teams to be that low

aya14

Middlesboro defo value at 9/2.
I think portsmouth are a bit short for value at 5/2 but i do think they are in trouble Mr Adams is inexperienced. Sold one of their biggest goal threats (Defoe) and the crucial home form is waning.

cson

Bubs101 wrote: »

I think West Brom, West Ham and Hull will go down but Fulham look good value. Don't have a great team and could hit a run of bad form. Also, if West Brom were the same on Betfair I'd consider laying them. It's too tight for the best of the Championship teams to be that low

Tbh I think WBA are certs to go down. They don't have enough quality to pull themselves out of it and imo Mowbray doesn't have it in him either. Though I would say that laying them and then backing after a couple of wins if they could manage it would be an arb opportunity.

Bubs101

cson wrote: »

Tbh I think WBA are certs to go down. They don't have enough quality to pull themselves out of it and imo Mowbray doesn't have it in him either. Though I would say that laying them and then backing after a couple of wins if they could manage it would be an arb opportunity.

When they came up they were thought to have the best chance of stating up and bar Geovanni seem to have a better quality of player than Stoke and Hull. Also, if it stays so close than laying the short odds is a great arbing opportunity as you said as Betfair tends to overeact at 5 every Saturday

thecornerboy

Hull and Porstmouth are good prices for me. You could have backed hull at 7s two games ago which I think was an excellent price. They are 4.6 now which is a good bet still I think, their home form is relegation form, worse than Stoke and West Brom. They've been putting in half-decent performances Hull but they're treading water. Their home form is the same as Sunderland and Bolton and better than Blackburn but I think those 3 teams have enough about them to pick up the 4-7 points needed to stay clear of their relegation rivals. Teams usually stay up based on home form, until recently Hull had a better away form than Arsenal and Manchester United, so if away form is gone they are already in big trouble. They have 1 win in 13 Prem games and the 1 win involved 2 goals in the last 10 minutes against Middlesbrough. I haven't seen Portsmouth play recently but from the outside looking in the writing is on the wall for them. Portsmouth have 2 wins in 13 Prem games and those were against struggling Blackburn and a last minute winner against Sunderland. Tottenham, Middlesbrough, Man City have enough quality and big game ability to see themselves through, the other 2 candidates Stoke and West Brom will be tight for relegation but obviously at strong odds on you wouldn't back them.

The current goal difference of Portsmouth and Hull is a good indicator of where they'll end up imo. Hull 4.6 and Portsmouth 4.4 now. I'm dutching them.

Portsmouth 3rd quarter of the season will be extremely tough for them, if they get dragged down it will affect morale big time, the 4th quarter sees some good chances for points but by then it may be inevitable.

mike65

Spurs at 10s must be worth a punt. They have a pretty testing run in, 4 of thier last 5 are against Liverpool, Man City, Everton and Man Utd. If they havn't made enough headway by 25 April they could be gonners.

Chucky the tree

Hull are pretty much safe now I think.

redarmyblues

mike65 wrote: »

Spurs at 10s must be worth a punt. They have a pretty testing run in, 4 of thier last 5 are against Liverpool, Man City, Everton and Man Utd. If they havn't made enough headway by 25 April they could be gonners.

GD is worth an extra point, but sentiment and club history must be built into the price. there is also the dead cat bounce factor, I can't really be having redknapp and I am not convinced about January signings. 11/1 on betdaq must be value.

cson

Thought I might bring this up again with only 2 games left;

To Be Relegated
WBA 1/20
Boro 2/7
Hull 8/15
Newky 4/5
Sunderland 5/1
Pompey 20/1

Newcastle ftw

mike65

Lay WBA

Johnny86

newcastle at 4/5 are surprisingly good value...i think the three that are down there now will go down..surprised they're so high...alot to be said for points in the bag as hull have instead of potential points...where are the newcastle goals going to come from??

Ace2007

Johnny86 wrote: »

newcastle at 4/5 are surprisingly good value...i think the three that are down there now will go down..surprised they're so high...alot to be said for points in the bag as hull have instead of potential points...where are the newcastle goals going to come from??

i dunno bout that - even if newcastle and boro draw 2moro night i still reckon hull will go down... they aren't going to beat united on the last day - no mater what team united put out...