Stormy Weekend Ahead

Supercell

Surfs up on Tramore beach! Should be some huge waves down there.

ch750536

Sky news just had 100mph winds and substantial snowfall for tomorrow!

LEIN

ch750536 wrote: »

Sky news just had 100mph winds and substantial snowfall for tomorrow!

Was that Ireland or UK?

Planet X

Hi guys,

When you think the winds / rain will kick in tomorrow? Am/Pm? going out cycling at 9am supposedly but wondering if we'll get caught up in any severe weather.

Thanks.

darkman2

Planet X wrote: »

Hi guys,

When you think the winds / rain will kick in tomorrow? Am/Pm? going out cycling at 9am supposedly but wondering if we'll get caught up in any severe weather.

Thanks.

The wind wont really pick up until after 12pm so your grand I think.

mike65

I feel I should get provisions in

Sierra Oscar

Met Office warning:

A swathe of severe south to south-westerly gales will affect north-west Scotland from Saturday afternoon through to Sunday lunchtime. Gusts of 80 to 90 mph are expected. Disruption to transport and power supplies is possible and there may be damage to buildings and trees. This warning will be superseded by FLASH warnings.

Issued at: 1106 Fri 16 Jan

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

nacho libre

Damo9090 wrote: »

Was that Ireland or UK?

the west of scotland will see the highest gusts out of this so i'd say that was the aera the sky weather forecaster was referring to.

M.T. Cranium

The very strong winds will come and go in most places before any chance for snowfall arrives. I can't see it snowing in Ireland at any elevation much before midnight to 0300 Sunday, and by then the very strong winds will be up over the Hebrides. When snow does arrive (at elevation, and in scattered locations) the winds will be a more tolerable 25-35 mph from the west, and the snow is quite likely to be mixed with hail, graupel or sleet.

As to the timing for the very strong winds, I would say, 3-6 pm the worst for west coast of Ireland, noon to 3 pm worst for south coast, 2-5 pm for the east coast. You could estimate from that if you're looking at locations closer to the centre of Ireland, but also winds near the centre of Ireland will be more dependent on terrain and you would need to be in a valley oriented to the SW winds, or up on a fairly high slope, to feel the full strength of these winds tomorrow. Some places reasonably sheltered may only have moderate wind gusts.

There could be a brief period of hail or thunder with the passage of the occluded front with this storm, expected rather rapidly across Ireland between about noon southwest, to 3 pm northeast.

I'm predicting the maximum wind gust for Ireland will be 85 mph at Belmullet and possibly also at Malin Head. For Dublin, I am predicting 58 mph. At that speed, damage would be minimal and confined to loose objects blowing around, small branches snapped off, tourists blown over (perhaps not even to be considered as damage).

nacho libre

Sunday night is when the snow will most likely start falling at lower levels in the west and north west of the country. This is when the cold source should really start to kick in. Up until then i'd say snow will be confined to high ground.

IMBACKLATER

according to the latest weather forecasts on RTE tonight, wind gusts will now reach 150kmph, roughly around 93 mph, i imagine the strongest gusts will be in exposed parts of the north west, winds are already beging to whip up here in west mayo...any one know why this storm is occuring,? its very extreme! something perhaps that will/is becoming more common...

darkman2

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

according to the latest weather forecasts on RTE tonight, wind gusts will now reach 150kmph, roughly around 93 mph, i imagine the strongest gusts will be in exposed parts of the north west, winds are already beging to whip up here in west mayo...any one know why this storm is occuring,? its very extreme! something perhaps that will/is becoming more common...

I don't think it is becoming more common personally. It's quite normal when you have two different airmasses interacting (cold polar air and mild tropical air). We are on that boundary this time. The center of these depressions usually don't get this close. Often they are further to the North West circulating around whats known as the Polar Vortex. They are secondary depressions of a much bigger mass of depressions in the North Atlantic. When the two airmasses collide the depression deepens quickly and the isobar/pressure gradient tightens. It's all timing really. This time we happen to be in the way so to speak:)

Although has to be said this storm will be shortlived. Only 4 or 5 hours really of strong winds.

DOCARCH

UKMO Shipping Forecast

Rockall
Storm force 10 veering westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Malin
Storm force 10 veering southwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Hebrides
Storm force 10 veering southwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 later

:eek:

First time I can remember hurricane force 12 forecast without the use of the words 'possibly'.

M.T. Cranium

Morning, I've been following your storm overnight, nothing too unusual to report, I would say it is crossing 20 W about now and should be taking dead aim on the M6 buoy (which is already somewhat on the ropes) around 1200, and judging by the 00z GFS and other guidance, seems to be nudged a little further east towards Ireland and Scotland for its final approach. So yes, there could be somewhat higher gusts than I mentioned earlier, although perhaps not by a lot, the strongest winds are likely to be around Benbecula and Stornoway in Scotland later on. I will revise my forecast maximum gusts to 90 mph for Belmullet, still 85 mph for Malin Head, and 63 mph for Dublin now. Adding in 60 mph for Cork, 62 mph for Shannon and 67 mph for Roches Point. I am not making these up as it may seem, but reading them off a more extensive guidance map based on the GFS verifying. So blame them not me if you find a tree on your car this evening. To which point, since winds of this intensity could do a bit of damage, I would advise caution in travelling after about 10:00 in the south and southwest, and after about 12:00 in most other parts of Ireland, two hands on the wheel ... and it will be a six club wind or better still, a stay in the clubhouse wind.

Wind speeds will rise gradually but then sharply when a front moves through, so the radar should become a good guide as to when the strongest winds are likely to hit. Look for a curved front like a reverse C and the strong winds should follow that, or begin with its passage.

DOCARCH

The danger of this storm is the timing. Most of the windstorms we have had over the last couple of years, as far as I can remember, had their strongest winds during the night - this is forecast to be at it's height during the afternoon when people are out and about.

I for one will be staying at home this afternoon - told the wife that it might be too dangerous to go out (well I can't use my laptop to monitor the wether when I'm out shopping:D)!

M.T. Cranium

The pressure dropped over 16 mbs in three hours at the M6 buoy, indicating explosive cyclogenesis underway. Only a matter of 2-3 hours now and the effects will be fully felt across western and southern coastal districts, an hour or two after that, eastern and central Ireland as well. In other words, this is the calm before the storm. Low centre has deepened from 980 to 960 mbs (approx) in the past three hours as well. The centre is just to the southwest of the M6 buoy now, estimated near 53N 17W. Motion is northeast at about 40 knots.

billy the squid

It's gotten very dark, and windy over the last 30 minutes or so here. and chucking it down.

themadchef

Jesus it's pretty bad on Achill. But the surfers are loving it.

Really dark, pouring rain and the gusts are savage. Can bet your bottom dollar the power is going to go.

nacho libre

themadchef wrote: »

Jesus it's pretty bad on Achill. But the surfers are loving it.

Really dark, pouring rain and the gusts are savage. Can bet your bottom dollar the power is going to go.

sounds like my idea of paradise. i wish i was down there now:(

Hal1

If this where the Gulf of Mexico would a system like this spawn into a major hurricane? During the US hurricane season when the fish spinners track a NE'rly direction how would this system compare in intensity? Thanks . You can see the swell on the Magic seaweed site.

rc28

Meteireann forecasting 120km/h gusts now, have the models really downgraded it to this extent? Only moderate short gusts here so far.

ninebeanrows

rc28 wrote: »

Meteireann forecasting 120km/h gusts now, have the models really downgraded it to this extent? Only moderate short gusts here so far.

Nope infact, looking worse for NW Eire at the moment.

DarkJager

The wind is really starting to pick up here now. I'm praying for a power cut, at least I'd be able to go home early from work then

jaffa20

WTF, it's so calm here. Just going into town soon so hope it don't get too bad.

EDIT: oh wait it's raining now

Hal1

Abit of wind, gusting at times. Main band of rain hasn't reached me yet. I noticed the Marathon gas platform winds at 49mph gusting to 74mph, Roches point is bearing the blunt of this also.

Damomanye

wow, their talking about voilent storm force winds off the west coast on the Marine coastguard radio channels. Doolin coast guard just ordered to assemble for a callout.

Very VERY windy here in Limerick city. ( my wheelie bin just blew over )

Supercell

Wind really picked up last few minutes here, interesting taf from Dublin airport :-

EIDW 171100Z 1712/1812 18019G30KT 9999 SCT020 SCT035
BECMG 1712/1714 17028G46KT -RA SCT010 BKN015
TEMPO 1714/1717 5000 RA BKN010
BECMG 1716/1718 23022G35KT 9999 SCT015 BKN025
TEMPO 1717/1720 23030G50KT SCT020CB
TEMPO 1720/1722 23026G42KT
BECMG 1723/1802 23020G32KT
BECMG 1808/1811 23026G43KT


Which basically is forecasting rain from 14:00 - 17:00
And peak winds to be between 17:00 - 20:00 with an average wind speed of 30 knots gusting to 50 knots which is storm force 10 !!:eek:

blackgold>>

Very very windy here in 7 miles from roches point. It's gusting pretty dam strong.

DarkJager

Any ideas on when winds will reach their peak in Limerick?

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

Wind really picked up last few minutes here, interesting taf from Dublin airport :-

EIDW 171100Z 1712/1812 18019G30KT 9999 SCT020 SCT035
BECMG 1712/1714 17028G46KT -RA SCT010 BKN015
TEMPO 1714/1717 5000 RA BKN010
BECMG 1716/1718 23022G35KT 9999 SCT015 BKN025
TEMPO 1717/1720 23030G50KT SCT020CB
TEMPO 1720/1722 23026G42KT
BECMG 1723/1802 23020G32KT
BECMG 1808/1811 23026G43KT


Which basically is forecasting rain from 14:00 - 17:00
And peak winds to be between 17:00 - 20:00 with an average wind speed of 30 knots gusting to 50 knots which is storm force 10 !!:eek:

is that accurate supercell? sorry if that's a stupid question but the strongest winds were progged to be from 12 - around 3pm.