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Snow for the far north tonight possibly (low probability)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Expect the warnings to come thick and fast this evening for the country's most severe and widespread event in many years. I would expect chaos on the roads by the morning;)

    :confused: :eek:

    jump-ramp.JPG


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    My personal opinion is it will start as rain/sleet across most areas apart from the north central areas of the midlands and Ulster.

    But will readily turn to snow towards dawn tomorrow with some slushy accumulations in many areas.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Issued at 18 January 2009 - 02:36
    Weather Advisory


    This very cold and often windy spell will continue up to mid-week at least. Most areas can expect falls of sleet or snow at times, leading to some accumulations. The nights will be frosty in most places also, with some icy roads.

    Valid until 0900 Wednesday 21/1/2009

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I'm quite pessimistic about tonight, GFS sticking to its guns and surely can't be wrong this near out.

    I expect widespread rain apart from the far north. This will be followed by sleet and perhaps snow as it clears tomorrow.

    Chance of snow showers again during tomorrow as the rain/sleet/snow clears.

    Very wet i reckon. Nice and snowy up in the Mournes for sure ;)


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I'm quite pessimistic about tonight, GFS sticking to its guns and surely can't be wrong this near out.

    I expect widespread rain apart from the far north. This will be followed by sleet and perhaps snow as it clears tomorrow.

    I guess we should not expect any snow to stick around for too long . . .


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    At this rate i would say the chance of snow is probably greater during Tuesday evening and night!

    It always gets put off so probably won't happen but a nice prospect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 300 ✭✭TheGreenGiant


    I don't know folks but in Trim today for instance, when showers passed though, it wasn't rain that was falling but sleety snow. Its 4C hear at the moment but it feels like 0C obviously due to the wind chill factor. But I think judging by the temp and precip charts below, alot of snow could fall tonight across alot of Ireland as the air temperatues drop. Its something to watch, but I do agree we could have a better chance of snow monday night and on into Tuesday especially for the north and west. At least we will get to see some of the white stuff anyway, something to be optomistic about, wheter it sticks or not:)

    the chharts below are for 6AM in the morning

    090118_0000_30.png090118_0000_30.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭ronbyrne2005


    Just back from week in Pyrenees. Was great to walk through ten feet snow drifts! :D Hopefully we will get some this week here in Dublin. Was a bit scary driving through the Pyrenees at night with six foot of snow either side of the mountain roads. Sledging down steep slopes was also so cool, felt like a kid again :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    meteireann only seems to suggest snow on higher ground is most likely tonight though the bbc weatherview seems to suggest a lot of white for ireland..always seem to get a lot less optimistic from morning to evening..suppose things are so marginal hard to predict with any certainty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Jeeze, go to work and come back to wild ramping, fella's some VERY large ramping going on here this evening!

    Looking at at the GFZ 12z, here's my thoughts:-

    First off the 850's

    T+12 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.png
    +1 -> -1°C across the country rain certain except on the very highest mountain tops

    T+18 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.png
    0 -> -4°C (at a stretch) - rain at lower levels, sleet above maybe 200 metres, snow above 300 possibly.

    Dew points - needs to be sub zero for wintry precipitation generally.
    Midnight :-

    taup_09011900_1812.gif

    6AM System now approaching Wales

    taup_09011906_1812.gif

    As you can see the chances of snowfall tonight are very low indeed except from the highest slopes, very north of the country and maybe early tomorrow in the west in the form of showers.

    So unfortunately I don't think many will be making snowmen tomorrow or having a snow day off work.
    I'm going to amend the thread title as its a bit misleading at this point.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Supercell wrote: »
    Jeeze, go to work and come back to wild ramping, fella's some VERY large ramping going on here this evening!

    Looking at at the GFZ 12z, here's my thoughts:-

    First off the 850's

    T+12 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.png
    +1 -> -1°C across the country rain certain except on the very highest mountain tops

    T+18 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.png
    0 -> -4°C (at a stretch) - rain at lower levels, sleet above maybe 200 metres, snow above 300 possibly.

    Dew points - needs to be sub zero for wintry precipitation generally.
    Midnight :-

    taup_09011900_1812.gif

    6AM System now approaching Wales

    taup_09011906_1812.gif

    As you can see the chances of snowfall tonight are very low indeed except from the highest slopes, very north of the country and maybe early tomorrow in the west in the form of showers.

    So unfortunately I don't think many will be making snowmen tomorrow or having a snow day off work.
    I'm going to amend the thread title as its a bit misleading at this point.

    talk about a downgrade. now only the word maybe is being used with regard our chances of snow tomorrow morning. well to be fair you were not involved in the ramping. however, supercell if we don't get a decent fall snow by monday night i'm holding you personably responsible:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    talk about a downgrade. now only the word maybe is being used with regard our chances of snow tomorrow morning. well to be fair you were not involved in the ramping. however, supercell if we don't get a decent fall snow by monday night i'm holding you personably responsible:D

    Lol!, weeks not out yet, I reckon you might see some more wintry showers there tomorrow anyhow :)

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    huge downgrade from met eireann, they are saying now most likely just rain for tonight with maybe some sleet mixed in, Snow confined to the highest of ground. Tomorrow sunny spells & wintry showers. I think we will see some snow falling at some stage 2moro but I dont think anything will stick unless it falls 2moro night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Gonzo wrote: »
    huge downgrade from met eireann, they are saying now most likely just rain for tonight with maybe some sleet mixed in, Snow confined to the highest of ground. Tomorrow sunny spells & wintry showers. I think we will see some snow falling at some stage 2moro but I dont think anything will stick unless it falls 2moro night.
    You must have seen a different forecast to me.
    My thoughts are similar to earlier. Basically the main belt of rain early tonight will be that i.e mainly rain with sleet restricted to the highest hills.
    As this clears though a lively showery trough follows on around 5am with very cold uppers digging in aswell. It is this that is likely to give snow to some, ironically the Southwest looks favourite. To start the morning the bitter air will speedily cross the country with showers widespread and falls of snow to all levels. By tomorrow night a large swathe of the country will be white imo;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    Is there anybody who could update us from the Kilbeggan-athlone area because there are reports of icy condition there this evening from the AAroawatch.

    **Watch out for icy road conditions on the N6 between Kilbeggan and Athlone in Co. Westmeath, on the N2 in Monaghan and Donegal. Particular care is advised on the N15 through the Barnesmore Gap in Donegal and in Wicklow through the Sally Gap


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,947 ✭✭✭✭Villain




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    You must have seen a different forecast to me.
    My thoughts are similar to earlier. Basically the main belt of rain early tonight will be that i.e mainly rain with sleet restricted to the highest hills.
    As this clears though a lively showery trough follows on around 5am with very cold uppers digging in aswell. It is this that is likely to give snow to some, ironically the Southwest looks favourite. To start the morning the bitter air will speedily cross the country with showers widespread and falls of snow to all levels. By tomorrow night a large swathe of the country will be white imo;)

    i have to admire your continued optimism januarysnowstor and hope it materialises. the rte forecast was a downgrade of sorts but not a massive one and let open the possibilty of snow at lower levels but most likely on higher ground when the colder front moves in. the bbc still have a lot of white for ireland though you would thing meteireann would cover themselves if they though that snow was very likely and may cause disruption.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I think the west of Ireland will see some wintry showers early on before turning back to sleet/rain later in the afternoon.
    The east half is unlikely to see much at all that's wintry if anything as by the time showers have reached here it will warmed up too much for anything wintry (apart from sleet or hail i guess) below 250 metres except in the North East.
    That said it is still marginal and most likely to remain a nowcast situation with regards post front passing as most showery regimes are.
    Tonight though almost certainly looks like a rainy one.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Supercell wrote: »
    I think the west of Ireland will see some wintry showers early on before turning back to sleet/rain later in the afternoon. Thats what the 12z shows, dew points are around 0 or higher by afternoon across the country generally (apart from the north east)
    The east half is unlikely to see much at all that's wintry if anything as by the time showers have reached here it will warmed up too much for anything wintry (apart from sleet or hail i guess) below 250 metres or so.

    well if that proves to be the case then it's definitely a downgrade because a couple of days ago we were progged to have snow widespread on monday and tuesday. still i should have known better this is ireland we live in and we've had similar experiences so many times before. so it looks like snow by night and rain and sleet by day resulting in any nightime accumulations melting quickly.

    to get widespread snow in Ireland, resulting in decent accumulations for many, it seems we need a properly northerly blast with a series of trough coming down from Greenland or better still a polar low. though, sadly polar lows are all too rare:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Just like to add on small point abouth the beeb's forecast
    Through the last 20years or so (that's how long i have the beeb) I have always seen them call it right for us more times than not. The fact that they show so much white over Ireland says to me they are very confident of this. Their maps can be a bit misleading, if it was the old symbols they would just have snow symbols over us which would look better:D
    It is my opinion that the reason today got milder is because this system to the south of us closed off the really cold circulation very early this afternoon. Once this pass through late tonight they will be nothing to stop the arctic wind from blowing through, which will also help convection tomorrow / tues in between troughs. That is why today was quite dry too because the upper cold was diverted away from us and therfore no convection.
    Trust me on this, I am fully sure we will see plenty snow tomorrow

    Supercell, not saying you are wrong either, anything can happen in marginal events


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Just like to add on small point abouth the beeb's forecast
    Through the last 20years or so (that's how long i have the beeb) I have always seen them call it right for us more times than not. The fact that they show so much white over Ireland says to me they are very confident of this. Their maps can be a bit misleading, if it was the old symbols they would just have snow symbols over us which would look better:D
    It is my opinion that the reason today got milder is because this system to the south of us closed off the really cold circulation very early this afternoon. Once this pass through late tonight they will be nothing to stop the arctic wind from blowing through, which will also help convection tomorrow / tues in between troughs. That is why today was quite dry too because the upper cold was diverted away from us and therfore no convection.
    Trust me on this, I am fully sure we will see plenty snow tomorrow

    Supercell, not saying you are wrong either, anything can happen in marginal events

    It is marginal tomorrow for sure, i reckon if anyone is going to get some snow the west and midlands are the place to be as that's where most of the precipitation is likely to be. It's debatable how much will reach the eastern half of the country, but some areas may get lucky.
    I'll be eagerly checking the 00z tomorrow morning before heading into work :)
    This situations sometimes give a right dumping ..or more often don't, very little between the two.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Where do SkyNews get their weather data?

    Just watching them tonight, and they have snow cover for Ireland tomorrow morning, through the afternoon and night followed by some on Tuesday during the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,517 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I would be optimistic for snow in the western half of Ireland tomorrow starting from quite early, about 0600 on the coast, to 0900 in eastern regions where snow is more likely to be confined to higher ground.

    The low is now well developed and tracking across the M6 buoy at the moment (15W) towards Donegal and then central Scotland by morning. This will bring temperatures well up during the night to a peak of about 9-10 C at perhaps 0200 to 0400 from west to east, with strong southerly winds and rain. However, the low is quickly followed by much lower thicknesses and the squally precip that develops in the westerly flow should quickly transition to hail and then snow as temps fall to 1-2 C.

    Some thunder snow may be observed, especially in Mayo, Galway and Clare (this around 0600-0900).

    Tuesday still looks like a better chance for more widespread snow outbreaks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Where do SkyNews get their weather data?

    Just watching them tonight, and they have snow cover for Ireland tomorrow morning, through the afternoon and night followed by some on Tuesday during the day.
    Yet another great sign imo
    They are always quite professional in what they show.
    I mean when last did they show widespread snow for Ireland?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Yet another great sign imo
    They are always quite professional in what they show.
    I mean when last did they show widespread snow for Ireland?

    I cant ever really remember them showing widespread snow for Ireland, to be honest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Supercell wrote: »
    It is marginal tomorrow for sure, i reckon if anyone is going to get some snow the west and midlands are the place to be as that's where most of the precipitation is likely to be.

    I appreciate that was painful for you to type ;) i hope now that you and JanuarySnowstor are largely in agreement on what will happen, it pans out as you both forecast. i'll certainly let you know anyway if i wake up to a covering of snow tomorrow morning;) there really is no need to thank me. it's the least i can do:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    light snow in knock

    hope it makes its way over this side of the country


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,947 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    jambofc wrote: »
    light snow in knock

    hope it makes its way over this side of the country
    If you are basing that on met.ie reports I would caution that the station is automatic and it may not be snow, hope so but doubt it


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,998 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Villain wrote: »
    If you are basing that on met.ie reports I would caution that the station is automatic and it may not be snow, hope so but doubt it

    AFAIK Konck is manned 24hrs while Claremorris is automatic.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,422 ✭✭✭Avns1s


    Villain wrote: »
    If you are basing that on met.ie reports I would caution that the station is automatic and it may not be snow, hope so but doubt it

    I'm close enough to Knock Airport and I can verify that it's snowing. Nacho, break out the champagne!

    Maybe it's time to revisit the thread title? :D


This discussion has been closed.
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