The AIB Discussion Thread

ranger4

mickman wrote: »

seven US banks were taken over by the FDIC over night, the largest ammount in one go since 1992. yesterdays US employment report has shown that the "green shoots of recovery" is nothing more than funny money printed by the central banks. business's are saying there is no pickup in demand at all (virgin atlantic etc). the stock market rally has been built on this reinflation story which will now unravel --- fast

I agree, Stocks in general are at start of downward trend possibly surpassing march Lows?

mickman

thats impossible to know at this stage. i dont think we will break the lows though

ranger4

mickman wrote: »

thats impossible to know at this stage. i dont think we will break the lows though

I feel anything is possible with markets, especialy when us market has been artificially boosted.

mickman

of course anything is possible. dow at 30,000 is also possible and the easiest way to get there is with hyperinflation. hyperinflation is also a possibility.

ixus

ranger4 wrote: »

I feel anything is possible with markets, especialy when us market has been artificially boosted.

See this post; the high frequency traders and "liquidity providers" are most likely the ones keeping the markets threading water.

silverharp

the regional banks which dont have the benefit of the GS pump and dump, this index looks like it wants to test the March Lows

ranger4

Seems aib has found support at 1.60euro range on ISEQ-LSE market, wonder how long will hold before broken, us support of aib (ADR)of 4.70usd broken and sp could be in the 3.00usd range very soon.

woodseb

ranger4 wrote: »

Seems aib has found support at 1.60euro range on ISEQ-LSE market, wonder how long will hold before broken, us support of aib (ADR)of 4.70usd broken and sp could be in the 3.00usd range very soon.

ADRs are fungible meaning such a situation would be prevented from happening by arbitrageurs, i think you have too much faith in technical support levels:eek:

ranger4

woodseb wrote: »

ADRs are fungible meaning such a situation would be prevented from happening by arbitrageurs, i think you have too much faith in technical support levels:eek:

sp fell to 1.53 this morn before slight rebound, Still feel sp will be going Lower before next Leg up.;)

TTNYWWBM

In Davy report on Ir banks 6th July they reckon 1.60ish is a current fair price and that's why it's hovered around this for a while. Did dip very low this morning then up to 1.65 but 1.60 is its appropriate average.

IMHO I'd expect only modest overall gains in the sp during the now prolonged run up to NAMA implementation...

Davy analysts nailed their colours to the mast with a comprehensive report on Irish banks 6/7/09, basically they say yes NAMA will be benefitial as the bad loans the banks have now can no longer be used as collateral. Once they are transferred over to NAMA the bonds while only a percentage for example 60% of the original loan value, they receive CAN be used as collateral. Currently these 'toxic' loans are worth a lot less than their lent amounts anyway!

thielfer

sticking to the topic...
...can You tell me how do You feel when somebody makes You realize
that all You talk about is fraud, blah, blah, blah, fraud, debt, debt, debt,
no real money, debt, debt, debt, LIE?

and all posts in that topic may be compressed in one all-saying sentence:
"Bank creates money from nothing, you have something that really doesn't exist and what's worst - you keep it running, in fact, being paid slaves."

Thanks
Goodnight
[thezeitgeistmovement]

pocketdooz

TTNYWWBM wrote: »

In Davy report on Ir banks 6th July they reckon 1.60ish is a current fair price and that's why it's hovered around this for a while. Did dip very low this morning then up to 1.65 but 1.60 is its appropriate average.

IMHO I'd expect only modest overall gains in the sp during the now prolonged run up to NAMA implementation...

Davy analysts nailed their colours to the mast with a comprehensive report on Irish banks 6/7/09, basically they say yes NAMA will be benefitial as the bad loans the banks have now can no longer be used as collateral. Once they are transferred over to NAMA the bonds while only a percentage for example 60% of the original loan value, they receive CAN be used as collateral. Currently these 'toxic' loans are worth a lot less than their lent amounts anyway!

lol, don't be so naive - Davys are not an independent research house. They are heavily in bed with the banks, especially BOI.

Sure, they has buy or hold recommmendations on the banks as they slid down about 60 - 80% in value. (check this if you don't believe me)

pocketdooz

thielfer wrote: »

sticking to the topic...
...can You tell me how do You feel when somebody makes You realize
that all You talk about is fraud, blah, blah, blah, fraud, debt, debt, debt,
no real money, debt, debt, debt, LIE?

and all posts in that topic may be compressed in one all-saying sentence:
"Bank creates money from nothing, you have something that really doesn't exist and what's worst - you keep it running, in fact, being paid slaves."

Thanks
Goodnight
[thezeitgeistmovement]

The job of a bank is to loan money to enterprises so they can create employment and to provide interest on savings to citizens so inflation does not swallow up their savings.

The job of the leftist hippy is to slate the very society that provides him with food, shelter and the computer he uses with which to share his worldly views.

pocketdooz

Moody's downgraded the guaranteed debt on 6 Irish banks yesterday to Aa1from Aaa which follows the downgrade of the Irish govt rating last week. The move impacts AIB, BKIR, Anglo, EBS, IL&P and Irish Nationwide which are all under government g’tee. Moody’s also downgraded the long term deposit ratings of AIB and BKIR by a notch to A1, and of IL&P by a notch to A2, reflecting the weakened ability rather than willingness of the Irish govt to support banking system in any extended way.

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

Moody's downgraded the guaranteed debt on 6 Irish banks yesterday to Aa1from Aaa which follows the downgrade of the Irish govt rating last week. The move impacts AIB, BKIR, Anglo, EBS, IL&P and Irish Nationwide which are all under government g’tee. Moody’s also downgraded the long term deposit ratings of AIB and BKIR by a notch to A1, and of IL&P by a notch to A2, reflecting the weakened ability rather than willingness of the Irish govt to support banking system in any extended way.

If we doint see some support withinn the next few weeks ire banks sp could possibly drop sub 1.00e range, I feel theres a good chance of this with bad Q2 earnings and bearish sentiment to continue unless we hear possible 2nd us stimlus plan being announced.

thielfer

pocketdooz wrote: »

The job of a bank is to loan money to enterprises so they can create employment and to provide interest on savings to citizens so inflation does not swallow up their savings.

The job of the leftist hippy is to slate the very society that provides him with food, shelter and the computer he uses with which to share his worldly views.

there's no such thing like a job of a bank
central bank creates virtual money from nothing, then your bank borrows it
then it uses to make a loans and you are a paid slave to repay something you didn't even have to repay, because interest rate is something that have no right to exist...but you believe it has

the rest of words you wrote is a bunch of pathetic lie you continue after being fed by economic liars and other part of this system - the truth is that monetary system exist only to keep control over you and others that believe that all that crp is a must, to keep people fed, giv'em employment etc.

until you find out what is underneath
until you find a will to grow in knowledge
until you really understand how inflation ridiculous is and makes us fools
you'll never go further
you stand still
you slow down evolution to the limit
and THEY are happy, couse it's their point
to control you

have a nice day

look for federal reserve/central bank history, zeitgeist materials - maybe you'll get what I mean
unfortunately I can't tell you exactly where the informations are, because moderators may get it as an advert - it's not my point to do that
the only media that's still free in some way is internet as nobody can control it in total...use search engines
look for strings that are attached to you...

pocketdooz

thielfer wrote: »

there's no such thing like a job of a bank
central bank creates virtual money from nothing, then your bank borrows it
then it uses to make a loans and you are a paid slave to repay something you didn't even have to repay, because interest rate is something that have no right to exist...but you believe it has

the rest of words you wrote is a bunch of pathetic lie you continue after being fed by economic liars and other part of this system - the truth is that monetary system exist only to keep control over you and others that believe that all that crp is a must, to keep people fed, giv'em employment etc.

until you find out what is underneath
until you find a will to grow in knowledge
until you really understand how inflation ridiculous is and makes us fools
you'll never go further
you stand still
you slow down evolution to the limit
and THEY are happy, couse it's their point
to control you

have a nice day

look for federal reserve/central bank history, zeitgeist materials - maybe you'll get what I mean
unfortunately I can't tell you exactly where the informations are, because moderators may get it as an advert - it's not my point to do that
the only media that's still free in some way is internet as nobody can control it in total...use search engines
look for strings that are attached to you...

I've watched that Zeitgeist crap - it is bunch of conspiracy theory horsesh*t. Keep believing that and you'll live your life like an ostrich with your head in the sand.

Do yourself a favour and compare the absolute crap in Zeitgeist to actual facts.

A slave? That's an interesting choice of words. I'm not a slave to anyone. I have never had a loan FORCED on me by a bank. Banks have provided me personally with access to funds with which to get an education, travel the world, buy a house etc.

The job of a bank and a capitalist society in general is to allocate resources to the most appropriate location. Without the banking system, no financing would have been provided to companies like Bell, Microsoft, Standard Oil etc - without which you wouldnt be sitting there at your computer, living with central heating, watching TV. Without the capitalist desire for the pursuit of profit you would never had life-saving drugs like you do, the means to communicate worldwide instantly, the ability to travel to practically anywhere in the world etc.

Maybe you should take a trip to the socialist/communist utopias of Cuba, North Korea and Vietnam - it might open YOUR eyes a little bit . . . :rolleyes:

ranger4

thielfer wrote: »

there's no such thing like a job of a bank
central bank creates virtual money from nothing, then your bank borrows it
then it uses to make a loans and you are a paid slave to repay something you didn't even have to repay, because interest rate is something that have no right to exist...but you believe it has

the rest of words you wrote is a bunch of pathetic lie you continue after being fed by economic liars and other part of this system - the truth is that monetary system exist only to keep control over you and others that believe that all that crp is a must, to keep people fed, giv'em employment etc.

until you find out what is underneath
until you find a will to grow in knowledge
until you really understand how inflation ridiculous is and makes us fools
you'll never go further
you stand still
you slow down evolution to the limit
and THEY are happy, couse it's their point
to control you

have a nice day

look for federal reserve/central bank history, zeitgeist materials - maybe you'll get what I mean
unfortunately I can't tell you exactly where the informations are, because moderators may get it as an advert - it's not my point to do that
the only media that's still free in some way is internet as nobody can control it in total...use search engines
look for strings that are attached to you...

Farout man.

Time Magazine

thielfer wrote: »

there's no such thing like a job of a bank
central bank creates virtual money from nothing, then your bank borrows it
then it uses to make a loans and you are a paid slave to repay something you didn't even have to repay, because interest rate is something that have no right to exist...but you believe it has

the rest of words you wrote is a bunch of pathetic lie you continue after being fed by economic liars and other part of this system - the truth is that monetary system exist only to keep control over you and others that believe that all that crp is a must, to keep people fed, giv'em employment etc.

until you find out what is underneath
until you find a will to grow in knowledge
until you really understand how inflation ridiculous is and makes us fools
you'll never go further
you stand still
you slow down evolution to the limit
and THEY are happy, couse it's their point
to control you

have a nice day

look for federal reserve/central bank history, zeitgeist materials - maybe you'll get what I mean
unfortunately I can't tell you exactly where the informations are, because moderators may get it as an advert - it's not my point to do that
the only media that's still free in some way is internet as nobody can control it in total...use search engines
look for strings that are attached to you...

Hi.

Please don't post here again.

Thanks.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Daragh101

The Economist wrote: »

Hi.

Please don't post here again.

Thanks.

why? its just an opinion on things.

Idu

It's nonsense

Time Magazine

Daragh101 wrote: »

why? its just an opinion on things.

Mod decision that it doesn't belong on this thread or on this forum. It's been discussed to death on the Conspiracy Theories forum and been ripped to shreds on the Economics forum.

The fact that it's nonsense is neither here nor there.

No more discussion of it here please. If you wish to take it further, I'm happy to engage on the Help Desk.

Daragh101

The Economist wrote: »

Mod decision that it doesn't belong on this thread or on this forum. It's been discussed to death on the Conspiracy Theories forum and been ripped to shreds on the Economics forum.

The fact that it's nonsense is neither here nor there.

No more discussion of it here please. If you wish to take it further, I'm happy to engage on the Help Desk.

i dont care....i was wondering why.

ixus

Daragh, this thread is for discussion of AIB, not conspiracy theory or banking theory. There are other places on boards for this.

Do not derail the thread any further.

Time Magazine

More infractions issued and more posts deleted. For the last time folks:

ixus wrote: »

Daragh, this thread is for discussion of AIB, not conspiracy theory or banking theory. There are other places on boards for this.

Do not derail the thread any further.

ranger4

Aib back upto last weeks highs and finding resisitance, any views with where sp is heading and why?

onetrueone

Positive sentiment from US markets i.e Dow Rally?
and good results from Us Financials JP morgan etc
CIT rescue etc
wonder if the intel announcement caused the downward pressure seen today?

cryhavoc

hi,
does anybody know where i cand find live prices or irish shares?
everything i could find is at least 15 mins delayed...

ixus

AIB reports H1 pre-tax loss of €0.9 billion

Wednesday, 5 August 2009 07:39

AIB Group has reported a pre-tax loss of €0.9 billion for the six months to the end of June.

It said its operating profits before provisions amounted to €1.7 billion, while it posted an adjusted loss per share of 164.4 cent.

The bank says its asset quality deteriorated further in the period, mostly in its property portfolios.
Advertisement

Criticised loans, or loans that are being watched closely by the bank, have increased to 25% of customer loans. 8.1% of these are impaired.

In the six month period, AIB said that its customer loans decreased by 2% and customer deposits fell by 12%.

AIB says its operating environment continues to be extremely difficult, but added that the rollout and creation of the National Assets Management Agency will be a key event for the bank and the industry.

NEDDURC

Looking for some clarification here -

I remember reading a little while ago in the business post a projected split of the NAMA 90billion that the government will take over - does anyone remember what this split was for AIB ie. 10billion of the 90billion.

If say it was 10billion then the loss to the bank after NAMA take it over will be say 3billion (assuming 70% haircut).
If they have taken a 2.6b hit today does that mean the remaining hit will be quite small now?
I realise alot of these figures are guesstimates but am I correct in the summary?

ranger4

Woint be too long before we see aib sp reach recent 2.40 high or even surpass it.:D

AARRRGH

Right, I'm thinking of taking a risk and buying 5k worth of AIB shares.

Could someone tell me the cheapest and easist way to buy and sell them?

My thinking is as follows:

The government appear to be willing to do anything to protect our banks (e.g. pumping billions into them, willing to screw the tax payer for decades with NAMA) so I think AIB for certain, and maybe BOI, will have a decent future. They may not hit €20 a share again, but they may hit something like €5 a share...

Daragh101

sharewatch small trader charge a flat fee of €50 per transaction (no comission just €50) as long as your investing no more than €15,000!

pocketdooz

AARRRGH wrote: »

Right, I'm thinking of taking a risk and buying 5k worth of AIB shares.

Could someone tell me the cheapest and easist way to buy and sell them?

My thinking is as follows:

The government appear to be willing to do anything to protect our banks (e.g. pumping billions into them, willing to screw the tax payer for decades with NAMA) so I think AIB for certain, and maybe BOI, will have a decent future. They may not hit €20 a share again, but they may hit something like €5 a share...

Is this not counter-intuitive?

Why would a bank succeed in a country saddled with debt run by a government who is f**king up the country as quickly as it can ??

AARRRGH

pocketdooz wrote: »

Is this not counter-intuitive?

Why would a bank succeed in a country saddled with debt run by a government who is f**king up the country as quickly as it can ??

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

woodseb

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

seriously, if that's your thinking put your 5k in a deposit account.

pocketdooz

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

You should read up on this more.

I really is not this simple.

.

AARRRGH

I have been reading the NAMA legislation. It is clearly set up to:

A. Pay over the odds for the banks bad debt
B. Extend how long the developers have to pay back their debt
C. Prevent house prices from crashing (at least in the short term)

The only risk as far as I can see it is if ACC win their court case.

If you disagree with the above, will you state your case?

ranger4

AARRRGH wrote: »

I have been reading the NAMA legislation. It is clearly set up to:

A. Pay over the odds for the banks bad debt
B. Extend how long the developers have to pay back their debt
C. Prevent house prices from crashing (at least in the short term)

The only risk as far as I can see it is if ACC win their court case.

If you disagree with the above, will you state your case?

o carroll will either get court protection tommorow or some debt buy out will occur, Too much riding on nama.

AARRRGH

ranger4 wrote: »

o carroll will either get court protection tommorow or some debt buy out will occur, Too much riding on nama.

O'Carroll/ACC is the risk factor alright, but I would imagine the amount of political pressure on the courts is unreal.

AARRRGH

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

What you are forgetting is that traders aren't eejits.
They will have priced all that in as it is.
You are too late with the punt.

Risk is sometimes rewarded but buying now is not a risk-buying last january was.

AARRRGH

Deleted User wrote: »

What you are forgetting is that traders aren't eejits.
They will have priced all that in as it is.
You are too late with the punt.

Risk is sometimes rewarded but buying now is not a risk-buying last january was.

I think too late is after NAMA is implemented.

deepdiver

Hi any thoughts on sp outlook seems to be hanging round the 2.05
last few days :rolleyes: maybe banks just too dodgy till nama vote.

Daragh101

i cant think of any reason to buy irish banks right now, their sh1te value.
Also god only knows what will happen to the sp when nama results are fully available!

ranger4

deepdiver wrote: »

Hi any thoughts on sp outlook seems to be hanging round the 2.05
last few days :rolleyes: maybe banks just too dodgy till nama vote.

will pobably trade sideways on daily news in a range untill haircut fig etc announced.

shamblertine

I bought shares in AIB yesterday but just realised I bought AIB shares listed on the LSE. Does anyone know what the difference is or did I just buy a UK subsidiary of AIB or something? The AIB shares on the LSE finished at 2.09 today whereas the AIB shares listed on the ISEQ finished at 2.12 today. Can anyone shed any light on the difference?

ixus

Shamblertine, I don't personally follow AIB's share price but, I'd imagine it's a cross listing to add more liquidity. In other words, to get UK investors to invest where they would not normally in Irish stock.

Check out cross listing and dual listing.

A quick email to investor relations at AIB should be able to clarify this for you further. I'm not sure what the currency exposure would be on the London listed stock for you though.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

shamblertine

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Thanks for that. So its possible to sell the shares on the ISEQ if the price is better?