The AIB Discussion Thread

Compak

samson09 wrote: »

28c a share is not the lowest AIB shares will fall to. The recent increases are based on nothing but speculation and wishful thinking. Even after the G20 meeting, nothing has REALLY changed. It wont be long before we see the price of Irish bank shares -27% one day, -17% the next, followed by -34% the next day. There is absolutely no logical reason why the share prices of Irish banks are increasing at the moment.

In my opinion, of course.

Personally I think that boat is well gone by at least 100% but who knows.

We have by technival/charting definitions entered a bull market and not a bear rally in America.

Nationalisation is pretty much off the table and people are realising that now. 28c is bankruptcy/nationalisation price.

I guess if government defaults we will crash way down.

I find it interesting that even at todays prices AIB is only equal in marketcap to GM which used to trade a lot lower than AIB.

daveirl

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samson09

Bull market? For the next few days maybe while everyone is still oo-ing and ah-ing at the latest pile of G20 trollop. What direction will the markets go when house prices drop a further 10-15% this year alone, when the dole queue grows to 600,000+ and when the banks still arent loaning money? And its all coming too, believe it!

Daragh101

even so the banks,as long as there not nationalised are good value, regardless of what happens. there assets alone are worth 3 times there current share price....:rolleyes:

fan_by

may be .06 a share is bottoming, .0000 - bottom, just matter of time

Compak

daveirl wrote: »

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I see itt that we have been sitting on the downard trench a while without falling which itself is bullish.
fridays finish pushed us out and with other factors including a buy at end to show confidence to hold in weekend.

Im not one for charts myself but belong to a group where there a re professional traders who love them. They have been bearish all the way (big FAZ fans) but have declared the bull is back now.
However they still see possible SP500 drop between 730-770 depending on certain movements but its still overall bullish and drop is just asignal for the buyin.

It would suit be much better if we were not out yet as I still have to load up on certain companies so if you feel this is wrong Id be delighted to hear.

shandsaker1982

so compak...ive been reading all your listings in the past and following the thread, you seem to know a lot. I bought 850 AIB shares for 59c and have been told by several people to just hold on to them. What do you think? Also anyone have any recommendations (i know no guarantees) on any shares to buy, hopefully irish ones...to be honest after following the markets for only months i still know nothing!

Compak

shandsaker1982 wrote: »

so compak...ive been reading all your listings in the past and following the thread, you seem to know a lot. I bought 850 AIB shares for 59c and have been told by several people to just hold on to them. What do you think? Also anyone have any recommendations (i know no guarantees) on any shares to buy, hopefully irish ones...to be honest after following the markets for only months i still know nothing!

Sorry buddy, I dont really post on this forum, more of a US trader myself.

On my normal forum I advised people to sell before half 4 yesterday. Waited myself til last second as expected big bounce. Would of had the equiv €1.45 the Us had if they did not act like children at the start and thus everything was 5 minutes late. got out at 126.5

The only surprise to me today despite US finsihing up was the bounceback though rally to me was a clear pump and dump instigated by the folly of acting on impulse of what people believe is a good idea to buy cheap.

We wont see 120 imo and probably not €1 for a long time. I expect a steady decline as people realise effective nationalisation ala RBS will happen. I see ;possibel ways for AIB to avoid this but imo sp needs to drop considerably to warrant me buying again as i need a return for my gamble.

I dont know how much 850 shares @59c means to you financially but if you have no need to cash them in I would say there is a high chance give it some time they wil go higher. Give it 3 years and id be shocked if not a good bit higher. However prepare for drops in mean time

I cant recommend any buys as my holdings are typically high risk. In this market a safe holding is only whats under your matress so may as well take advantage and try and get some return.

Holding in Ireland ELAN and INM looking at smurfit. thats it. will get IPM again if go under €1.

Im watchign US for earnings esp BAC and Citi but wary about getting in yet. overall trend in market should be a pullback before new highs

onetrueone

shandsaker1982 wrote: »

so compak...ive been reading all your listings in the past and following the thread, you seem to know a lot. I bought 850 AIB shares for 59c and have been told by several people to just hold on to them. What do you think? Also anyone have any recommendations (i know no guarantees) on any shares to buy, hopefully irish ones...to be honest after following the markets for only months i still know nothing!

Hi, I bought (AIB) 30,000 euro worth at an average of 85 cent after the Anglo Nationalisation. Kicking my self that I did not get out at 1.50 or there abouts.
On Monday I dumped the lot for 1.20.
I've learned a lot from my first foray into shares.

1. Don't get greedy TAKE YOUR PROFITS.
2. Don't buy shares based on historical prices buy based on technical analysis.
3. Investing In Bank shares is like trying to judge a Beauty contest in a leper colony.

Idu

Your first point is technically wrong. How could you have known 1.50 was the top?? When you got into the trade your mistake was not having a clear out in your mind be it right or wrong. You will see a lot of posts here from people who have let their trades sit miles against them and then take small profit the first chance they get. You will hear the term "good buy in the long term" a lot. This is suicidal trading.

Before I make a trade the two most important things to me will be where I will take off the loser and where I will bank the winner. It's not a case of picking a number from the sky but if a stock hits my out I'm out. If it goes further then so what I can still get in again. If I take a hit on it the same applies as I can buy again at a lower price if I think it's still a buy and not have my capital tied up in something that isn't working.

Basically I think that to have any success trading you should have a clear plan laid out before each trade and stick rigidly to it. As you get more experienced you will learn how to tweek that system to find your outs quicker but in the beginning stick to something simple and you will find it takes a lot of the emotion out of it and it's the emotion which leads to bad trading decisions.

Best of luck

daveirl

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Bearcat

see the business post is taking of govt taking a majority share holding in AIB......that's it, they are down the jacks.

AARRRGH

Everything I'm reading at the moment, including soundbites from Peter Bacon, suggest AIB and BOI are going to be nationalised. Basically the new "asset" management company will force both banks to admit their liabilities, which will then be sold to the government for a fraction of their value, leaving both banks with debts of 10's of billions.

To stop both banks from collapsing, the Government will have to step in and bail them out. The net result of this is both, or at least, AIB, will be nationalised.

You should sell now before the masses realise this.

Daragh101

AARRRGH wrote: »

Everything I'm reading at the moment, including soundbites from Peter Bacon, suggest AIB and BOI are going to be nationalised. Basically the new "asset" management company will force both banks to admit their liabilities, which will then be sold to the government for a fraction of their value, leaving both banks with debts of 10's of billions.

To stop both banks from collapsing, the Government will have to step in and bail them out. The net result of this is both, or at least, AIB, will be nationalised.

You should sell now before the masses realise this.

ya a lot of people are now saying this.
there is a big this could happen.
the market could also over estimate the banks liabilities which could cause a rise in share price.
if this does happen how soon could it all hapen?

Qwertysurf

Bearcat wrote: »

see the business post is taking of govt taking a majority share holding in AIB......that's it, they are down the jacks.

Am I missing something? Unless AIB is fully Nationalized are shares not safe enuff that they will eventually rise over €1.50, or is just wishful thinking on my behalf

ranger4

a recent report from Merrion says it forcasts discount fig of 20% which would giv gov a 70% stake in aib and 55% stake in boi, aib- bkir could still continue to be listed on SE and their shares could still be traded with such high gov stakes in both banks.

DJDC

1. Don't get greedy TAKE YOUR PROFITS.
2. Don't buy shares based on historical prices buy based on technical analysis.
3. Investing In Bank shares is like trying to judge a Beauty contest in a leper colony.

Point 2 can be both wrong and right. In some markets technical analysis can be a reasonable way of making trading decisions whereas in others it will be the equivalent of looking at sheep entrails. For example in options trading, trying to use charts to hedge underlying gammas around exercise is pointless but for equities on spot FX it can be very rewarding. The key issue is knowing your market well and having experience of trading within it. That hold true whether you are trading illiquid Ukraine CDS or trading spot cable.

Dictator

From RTE.ie, goverment will have to sink more cash into AIB, have a look at RBOS low of .1 now ~ .3

NATIONALISE THE BANKS, URGE ECONOMISTS - The Irish Times carries an opinion piece from 20 of Ireland's leading academic economists, who argue that the Government has got it badly wrong on banks.
They say NAMA is not the way to clean up the banking mess created by the property bubble, and that temporary but full-blooded nationalisation of the banks is the only way.
The economists summaris their arguments in favour of nationalisation, and against the Government's current approach of limited recapitalisation and the introduction of an asset management agency, under four headings.
Advertisement

'We consider that nationalisation will better protect taxpayers' interests, produce a more efficient and longer lasting solution to our banking problems, be more transparent in relation to pricing of distressed assets, and be far more likely to produce a banking system free from the toxic reputation that our current financial institutions have deservedly earned,' they say.

FlyOver

The government won't make a move on nationalising the banks until they're staring down the barrel and it blows up in their face completely.

ranger4

FlyOver wrote: »

The government won't make a move on nationalising the banks until they're staring down the barrel and it blows up in their face completely.

This gov woint unless as stated at gun point but if fg-Labour gain power with a gov collapse i would be worried.

eire2009

Its been a bad week, there down about a third and more worryingly there diverging from most the other banks this week which are up(sign of weakness in the market).

Bad media attention, both AIB,BOI writing off Bad debts, Irish Nationwide,More threats To there International AAA ratings and them 20 ecomomists driving down the price today.

The daily volume of shares being traded is madness any slight blip in the media is have a major knock on effect.

A true and fair price for these banks will be found eventually when people stop panicking.

I recon the average price over the last 3 months should be the main indicator for investment not the daily madness which is driving anybody with any money invested major stress ..

The biggest Indicator will be in six months or whenever they agree a price for there bad assets,

Worse case Scenario they`ll get less than 50% of there value tankin into account most banks have droped 2/3 of there 2007 tops I recon there worth about 2/3 of 50% there 2007 top value ...

Which is still over 3 times what they are now
(Put my money in long term or until it doubles at the start of the week)

Bit like buying a new car once you drive it out the shop youve already lost a couple of grand ..
Still a better Investment given the high possibility of them doubling next week or what they could do in 2-3 years

But I will say this I can afford to lose everything I have Invested, and its like 20% of my assets so I guess I wouldent advise people to put their house on it maybe hold off buying a new car for a year or 2 and put the money you would have lost in the depreciation of the vehicle in ...

Im sticking to mine until I can make good money either short or long term

Idu

eire2009 wrote: »

A true and fair price for these banks will be found eventually when people stop panicking

THE true and fair price for these banks is what someone is willing to pay for them which at the moment ain't too much

eire2009

Idu wrote: »

THE true and fair price for these banks is what someone is willing to pay for them which at the moment ain't too much

Always trust trade prices which is correct in a efficient market.

Does it look like an efficient market at the moment?
I recon still and have done for months that they are undervalued due to the major slump which Investors couldnt predict and there confidence is shattered form the last year.

Investor physocoligy has a lot to do with how volitile the market is and is and added factor to there valuation.

Idu

Looks to me to be as efficient as any other world market. The fact that two banks who are facing the threat of nationalisation can't make a leg up with the rest of the financials makes sense to me.

eire2009

Maybe it is,
but if 20 econmoists with an un-official opinion based on assumptions and presumptions of a company and its assets without any fact, can effect share prices by any amount seems a bit promiscuous.

Like who are these 20 leading economists they dont have any say in the banks or what will happen to them.

Im supprised that 20 freely thinking professionals without working for political or finacial gain can come up with a independent un-biased opinion.

I wounder how many of them are spread betting the bear market at the moment. I dont think betting on your own outside opinon without any inside influence in the company is actually illegal.

They new there Unanimous publicised opinion would drop there prices in a such a volitile market.

Why dont top 20 business men(un-named) next week come out with the same unanimous opinion that the Banks will surive the storm and wont need to be nationalised and spread bet the stocks going up.

Id say buy stocks but with spread betting theres no paper trail and you dont even have to pay tax on your winnings.

Idu

eire2009 wrote: »

Like who are these 20 leading economists they dont have any say in the banks or what will happen to them.

Im supprised that 20 freely thinking professionals without working for political or finacial gain can come up with a independent un-biased opinion.

I wounder how many of them are spread betting the bear market at the moment. I dont think betting on your own outside opinon without any inside influence in the company is actually illegal

LOL

Maybe they just think it because it's true

daveirl

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eire2009

Idu wrote: »

LOL

Maybe they just think it because it's true

Maybe they honestly do,

But the point I was making was the market is to easy to manipulate at the moment which is why I think its not working efficiently.

Also what bank managers get is options to buy shares at the current price in the future so when the share price goes up they get the option to buy the shares at the price they were 12 months ago. Basicially an incentive for them to push for profits.

But when new ones come in they tend to let the price fall until they get the share options they wont, then they push for profits. They can put the last bad couple of months down to the previous managment of the company then they look good when prices rise again.

It happens not saying its happening in the banks at the minute but its just how the shares get manipulated from the inside but at the moment its happening from the outside so im guessing that bank managers are at the mercy of Investor confidence and public opinion at the moment, as apposed to the market price reflecting the true value of the bank.

daveirl

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eire2009

And if they were going to nationalise them why didnt they do it when they were at rock bottom.

They dont wont to,
Instead they gave a load of talk about injecting money and what not to bring there share price back up.