The AIB Discussion Thread

daveirl

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eire2009

Maybe im wrong but ive watched them down to 12 cent and get pushed up 7 times that if I had bought anywhere around that area Id have made a lot of money in a month not somthing you can usually do on a stock market.

There a gamble not an investment but a good gamble at that.

daveirl

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eire2009

daveirl wrote: »

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Not saying its easy but buy the looks of things the market nearly did cease to exist it had to be bailed out by a lot of governments at after the crash there has to be some recovery.

Im not in it to gain 10% over the next year lets put it that way. At the moment its easy to make a lot more money than you put in .

ranger4

daveirl wrote: »

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and if gov go ahead and fully nationalize all our banks who will still be exposed to the foreign bank loans made to our banks? yep the taxpayer also i doubt if thease foreign banks woud be willing to lend to us in a hurry again, We would be sending out a very negitive sign to potental investors or buyers of gov bonds if ALL our banks were delisted and fully nationalized, Also i doint believe brussels would give the nod to full nationalization, I feel gov will end up with majority stake with aib-bkir and they will draw funding from eu to recap both banks and both banks will escape delisting.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

and if gov go ahead and fully nationalize all our banks who will still be exposed to the foreign bank loans made to our banks? yep the taxpayer also i doubt if thease foreign banks woud be willing to lend to us in a hurry again, We would be sending out a very negitive sign to potental investors or buyers of gov bonds if ALL our banks were delisted and fully nationalized, Also i doint believe brussels would give the nod to full nationalization, I feel gov will end up with majority stake with aib-bkir and they will draw funding from eu to recap both banks and both banks will escape delisting.

Spoken like a man with a vested interest in the banks survival. You seem to forgetten that if they dont nationalise they're still exposed to the foreign bank loans you speak off and seeing as they have no money who will pay? the government, read taxpayer. So either which way the outcome is the same. Taking a massive stake in the banks without nationalising doesnt mean foreign investors will suddenly start buying up our gov bonds either.

Also your last sentence is a massive LOL. You dont think brussels will look too kindly on nationalisation but they'll fund a bailout. Oh dear.

daveirl

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Daragh101

even if the govt decide to take a big stake in AIB/BOI ,would the banks after a big blow to their share price not eventually rise to more than what they are now???????

Bearcat

i sold my aib stock last week.....just way way too volatile.

Idu

Daragh101 wrote: »

even if the govt decide to take a big stake in AIB/BOI ,would the banks after a big blow to their share price not eventually rise to more than what they are now???????

Why? They're a loss making organisation who don't pay a dividend. The main factor in their record years, property, is pretty much in the toilet and the country they're in looks to be headed for a longer recession than most of the EU.

Not saying their share prices mightn't rise eventually just doesn't seem to be any compelling argument that they should

daveirl

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Daragh101

Idu wrote: »

Why? They're a loss making organisation who don't pay a dividend. The main factor in their record years, property, is pretty much in the toilet and the country they're in looks to be headed for a longer recession than most of the EU.

Not saying their share prices mightn't rise eventually just doesn't seem to be any compelling argument that they should

there not a loss making organisation, they still posting massive profits

pocketdooz

Daragh101 wrote: »

there not a loss making organisation, they still posting massive profits

Not quite. AIB made an operating profit of €2.71 billion in 2008 and then wrote down €1.82 billion for impairment of loans and receivables. This gave them an operating profit of €862 million.

Now, their total loan book is €135.6 billion. So, they took a write-down of 1.34% of their loan book. Come off it - if they get away with ten times that they will be lucky in my opinion. For example - If you look at the Spanish banks it's ticked up from 1-2% last year to 4-5% currently and is rising rapidly.

So, if we take a more realistic, yet conservative estimate of the write-down, let's say, only 5% we get to an impairment figure of €6.78 billion. Hence giving them an operating loss (not profit) of €4.07 billion.

All these figures are in the Annual report which is attached - flip to page 135-138. Also, bear in mind that profit is an accounting concept and what we are really worried about is cash generation, cash burn and capitalisation which are the really worrying things about the banks at the moment.

*** pdf attached

ranger4

Idu wrote: »

Spoken like a man with a vested interest in the banks survival. You seem to forgetten that if they dont nationalise they're still exposed to the foreign bank loans you speak off and seeing as they have no money who will pay? the government, read taxpayer. So either which way the outcome is the same. Taking a massive stake in the banks without nationalising doesnt mean foreign investors will suddenly start buying up our gov bonds either.

Also your last sentence is a massive LOL. You dont think brussels will look too kindly on nationalisation but they'll fund a bailout. Oh dear.

Delisting all the banks of the euro showpiece ireland will not happen, trichet will give nod to make available capital from eu bank funding programe via bond issues availible for our troubled banks, Even with majority gov stake in aib-bkir i am confident they will escape delisting and continue trading on SE.:D

daveirl

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ranger4

daveirl wrote: »

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sp might not trade much higher than todays price for quite some time, This leg down was on the cards with investors waiting for more news with loan discount and gov stake figures in both aib-bkir, I feel aib could find a floor with this leg down somewhere around 0.40-0.60c and when it reaches thease levels i will be buying and holding Longterm.

Daragh101

ranger4 wrote: »

sp might not trade much higher than todays price for quite some time, This leg down was on the cards with investors waiting for more news with loan discount and gov stake figures in both aib-bkir, I feel aib could find a floor with this leg down somewhere around 0.40-0.60c and when it reaches thease levels i will be buying and holding Longterm.

its easy to say that but how can you possibly predict floor level with the banks

eire2009

daveirl wrote: »

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Im sorry you seem to know alot about this Ive 2 years max Interest and only in the last couple of months started investing. But the shares have been up 500% on 20cent and down 80% on 1euro in the last month or so. Today they were up 20% or so at one point today good media over the weekend.

Why stocks jump up and down like this is well im not going to insult your intelligence. But it dosnt take a genius to spot that at some point in the near future they will trade higher and will trade lower than what they are today.

So why are you against peoples positive thinking that at some point the recession will be over and the stocks will go up.

If in the meantime they get part nationalised and get rid of a bit of toxic debt aswell and stay listed there is a good chance thet they will be worth more than they are today.

You obviously seem to be advising people not too invest but really in todays market nowhere is really safe and both BOI and AIB are getting the support of the government.

What do you suggest I do sit here watching the shares rocket 500% in a couple of weeks and leave my money in the Bank at 3.5% a year.

Sorry, even if I loose everything It had the potiential to make alot and I wont blame myself for making a bad choice.

pocketdooz

eire2009 wrote: »

Im sorry you seem to know alot about this Ive 2 years max Interest and only in the last couple of months started investing. But the shares have been up 500% on 20cent and down 80% on 1euro in the last month or so. Today they were up 20% or so at one point today good media over the weekend.

Why stocks jump up and down like this is well im not going to insult your intelligence. But it dosnt take a genius to spot that at some point in the near future they will trade higher and will trade lower than what they are today.

So why are you against peoples positive thinking that at some point the recession will be over and the stocks will go up.

If in the meantime they get part nationalised and get rid of a bit of toxic debt aswell and stay listed there is a good chance thet they will be worth more than they are today.

You obviously seem to be advising people not too invest but really in todays market nowhere is really safe and both BOI and AIB are getting the support of the government.

What do you suggest I do sit here watching the shares rocket 500% in a couple of weeks and leave my money in the Bank at 3.5% a year.

Sorry, even if I loose everything It had the potiential to make alot and I wont blame myself for making a bad choice.

Luckily there are people with attitudes like this in the market, otherwise the day traders wouldn't be making so much money right now. Hope and "positive thinking" are no reason to buy the equity of a company. You think you are placing a bet on the recovery of the Irish econonmy? You're not - you're essentially buying the riskiest, least secure piece of a loss-making, debt-ridden, non-dividend paying, over-sized, over-exposed bank.

Good luck to you, I hope you make your 500%. If you don't want to listen to sensible advice from Dave, who is probably one of the most (only) knowledgable people on this forum then feel free to go with your gut and waste all you money.

pocketdooz

Press reports that employees at Allied Irish Banks have voted to reject a management request for a 2 year pay freeze, a 5% contribution from staff on defined benefit pensions and changes in the calculation of pension entitlements. The Irish Bank Officials Association (IBOA) has indicated that it is contacting the Labour Relations Commission in Ireland and ACAS/ the LRA in the UK to agree dates for the issues to be heard. The union pulled out of talks last month under the AIB-IBOA steering committee.

Separately, M&T Bank, in which Allied Irish Banks has a 24% interest, is set to report Q1 results before the US market opens today. Consensus forecasts are for EPS of 71c (-54% y-o-y). M&T will also conduct a conference call at 3:00 p.m. US Eastern Time. US bank stocks fell yesterday (the KBW bank index was down 15%) after the market was disappointed by results and comments from Bank of America (BoA). The market was disappointed by a number of factors including a 41% increase in non-performing assets to $25.7bn in the 3 months to 31 March 2009 as a result of “continued deterioration in portfolios tied to housing.” The 3bps decline in the net interest yield to 270bps also disappointed. BoA management indicated that it expects credit quality to deteriorate further.

silverharp

pocketdooz wrote: »

Separately, M&T Bank, in which Allied Irish Banks has a 24% interest, is set to report Q1 results before the US market opens today. Consensus forecasts are for EPS of 71c (-54% y-o-y). M&T will also conduct a conference call at 3:00 p.m. US Eastern Time. US bank stocks fell yesterday (the KBW bank index was down 15%) after the market was disappointed by results and comments from Bank of America (BoA). The market was disappointed by a number of factors including a 41% increase in non-performing assets to $25.7bn in the 3 months to 31 March 2009 as a result of “continued deterioration in portfolios tied to housing.” The 3bps decline in the net interest yield to 270bps also disappointed. BoA management indicated that it expects credit quality to deteriorate further.

You are going to see alot of that, there will be large write downs on credit card debt and other consumer debt

daveirl

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Idu

Another quality post, if people could take the giant dollar signs out from in front of their faces for a while then they might realise the points you are putting across. As it is BOI and AIB were trading at 15/16/17 dollars a few years ago and nobody can get past this it seems

eire2009

daveirl wrote: »

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Id do it by day but I just feel that its better to just do it this way, making 600e one day then loosing 400e the next just isnt worth the stress for the 200e.

10% for the future is a bit unrealistic given the daily flucuations.

Daragh101

quote:If in 3 years BOI is worth 10% more.

the worst case for shareholders is full nationalisation.
however if this is avoided the return over 3 years would hardly be as low as 10%, i would be thinking another 0 is more realistic. 100% lol.:D

pocketdooz

Some things you just can't make up

Qwertysurf

Quote from above "I've told people a hundred times what I think retail investors should do. Stick to ETFs and average into the indicies over time. You've diversification then."



Hey Dave, I have an account with Goodbody Online Trading. Is an ETF something that can be done with an online account?

pocketdooz

Qwertysurf wrote: »

Quote from above "I've told people a hundred times what I think retail investors should do. Stick to ETFs and average into the indicies over time. You've diversification then."



Hey Dave, I have an account with Goodbody Online Trading. Is an ETF something that can be done with an online account?

Looks like it

http://www.goodbody.ie/learning/etf.html

daveirl

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daveirl

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