The AIB Discussion Thread

eire2009

pocketdooz wrote: »

Luckily there are people with attitudes like this in the market, otherwise the day traders wouldn't be making so much money right now. Hope and "positive thinking" are no reason to buy the equity of a company. You think you are placing a bet on the recovery of the Irish econonmy? You're not - you're essentially buying the riskiest, least secure piece of a loss-making, debt-ridden, non-dividend paying, over-sized, over-exposed bank.

Good luck to you, I hope you make your 500%. If you don't want to listen to sensible advice from Dave, who is probably one of the most (only) knowledgable people on this forum then feel free to go with your gut and waste all you money.

Well my attitude again paid off this was at 60 cent bout a week or so ago sensible dave can do out his portfolio and get his 10% a year ill take my profit sold at 1.16 today longterm or double my money that was the game plan.

I recon they`ll go up again tomoro probably hit 1.50 before they drop again but who knows . Ill buy again if they hit 70-80 cent next month or that.

Stop player haten aswell dont be judging me judge the shares.

ranger4

eire2009 wrote: »

Well my attitude again paid off this was at 60 cent bout a week or so ago sensible dave can do out his portfolio and get his 10% a year ill take my profit sold at 1.16 today longterm or double my money that was the game plan.

I recon they`ll go up again tomoro probably hit 1.50 before they drop again but who knows . Ill buy again if they hit 70-80 cent next month or that.

Stop player haten aswell dont be judging me judge the shares.

Nice rise today, this bounce could last a few more days, profit is profit.:D

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz

pocketdooz wrote: »

Not quite. AIB made an operating profit of €2.71 billion in 2008 and then wrote down €1.82 billion for impairment of loans and receivables. This gave them an operating profit of €862 million.

Now, their total loan book is €135.6 billion. So, they took a write-down of 1.34% of their loan book. Come off it - if they get away with ten times that they will be lucky in my opinion. For example - If you look at the Spanish banks it's ticked up from 1-2% last year to 4-5% currently and is rising rapidly.

So, if we take a more realistic, yet conservative estimate of the write-down, let's say, only 5% we get to an impairment figure of €6.78 billion. Hence giving them an operating loss (not profit) of €4.07 billion.

All these figures are in the Annual report which is attached - flip to page 135-138. Also, bear in mind that profit is an accounting concept and what we are really worried about is cash generation, cash burn and capitalisation which are the really worrying things about the banks at the moment.

*** pdf attached

.....

NPLs will be worse than the adverse case stress tests which AIB concluded in early March.

Already running at worse than base case. Now thinking that will write-off €4.3bn (3.25% of total loans). Bad & doubtful loans, have increased €9bn to €24bn, that's 60% in Q1 alone which is a huge move and perhaps a reaction to unbelievable (literally) low metrics , and also in the face of the recently disclosed 12% NPL ratio in Danske's Irish book. At only 3.25% of the book, this still looks too low.

Still a long way to go in my opinion

Daragh101

why is AIB trading below BOI, is BOI in better shape??

pirelli

Daragh101 wrote: »

why is AIB trading below BOI, is BOI in better shape??

Independent business & DAVY's 3rd may

AIB's has an equity tier 1 of just 1.6% ( bad) , and Bank of Ireland would be marginally better off with an equity of €3.3bn, and a core equity ratio of 3.6%.

Update Reuters/Bloomberg

Davys had said that the Market needs an equity ratio of 6 % from the banks .
Bank of ireland is in a more tenuous position to achieve this. BOI has stated that they only needed 4.5 billion and now BOI has said they need 6 billion with a further downside risk and the possibility of nationalization was real.

pirelli

eire2009 wrote: »

Well my attitude again paid off this was at 60 cent bout a week or so ago sensible dave can do out his portfolio and get his 10% a year ill take my profit sold at 1.16 today longterm or double my money that was the game plan.

I recon they`ll go up again tomoro probably hit 1.50 before they drop again but who knows . Ill buy again if they hit 70-80 cent next month or that.

Stop player haten aswell dont be judging me judge the shares.

What was your problem.!

ranger4

I feel we will see start of pullback with aib-bkir today with sell off friday.

Daragh101

when do yee think this rally will end?
€2.05 today!!!
whats causing it???

pirelli

Daragh101 wrote: »

when do yee think this rally will end?
€2.05 today!!!
whats causing it???

We are in a bull market and thats about it. However with Moody's reviewing AIB
and with the close shave AIB is already facing with NAMA ( part nationalisation)
any downgrade to AIB would not be received with optimism by most investors except the true rawhide bull.

Therefore we might see AIB drop in the NYSE which will in turn impact The ISEQ or vice versa, any weakness in share price now could force AIB down. AIB is the weaker of the two Irish banks and Institutions have to take any review by Moody seriously in a climate where SEC are prosecuting cowboy brokers and financial institutions who take reckless risks with false optimism. Presently that is not the case and it is higher After market on the NYSE.

Other than this there is nothing really to work on except that it once had a high share price and therefore might be worth a gamble and also other banks in that environment are improving in share price, with many exceptions such as Citigroup Inc.etc..

quilei

pirelli wrote: »

We are in a bull market and thats about it. .......

I bought 6,000 AIB share at 1.41,you think i should sell it or keep it?

pirelli

quilei wrote: »

I bought 6,000 AIB share at 1.41,you think i should sell it or keep it?

You should really talk to your broker. Please do not do anything based on my post. Everything is looking very bullish and many people don't even trade on news. They trade on other factors. I am not invested in AIB so if it has a pullback then i can profit from that, so bear that in mind as could many other investors on the sidelines.


The Irish independent and irishtimes offer a list of brokers daily reports, i would pay attention to these.

quilei

pirelli wrote: »

You should really talk to your broker. Please do not do anything based on my post. Everything is looking very bullish and many people don't even trade on news. They trade on other factors. I am not invested in AIB so if it has a pullback then i can profit from that, so bear that in mind as could many other investors on the sidelines.


The Irish independent and irishtimes offer a list of brokers daily reports, i would pay attention to these.

,I use goodbody online do trade .my broker wont give me any adivice because my investment under 100.000.:(
So i dont have any idea now,i only can check AIB chart and depend on my past experice do so.
Do you know some good broker and I can get some good suggerstion from them?
cheers

pirelli

quilei wrote: »

,I use goodbody online do trade .my broker wont give me any adivice because my investment under 100.000.:(
So i dont have any idea now,i only can check AIB chart and depend on my past experice do so.
Do you know some good broker and I can get some good suggerstion from them?
cheers

The price wont drop to far it's fairly solid and there might only be a small pullback. Bad news is unpredictable and i see this only as an oppourtunity ( that could be become a risky chance) to get in cheaper.

The downside is a change in goverment a down grade in moodies and bad haircut from nama would truly test the present share price.

I hope it drops on monday evening and i will be watching it closely if it does.


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ranger4

Support range with aib dip 1.70-1.80 range?

pirelli

pirelli wrote: »

The price wont drop to far it's fairly solid and there might only be a small pullback. Bad news is unpredictable and i see this only as an oppourtunity ( that could be become a risky chance) to get in cheaper.

The downside is a change in goverment a down grade in moodies and bad haircut from nama would truly test the present share price.

I hope it drops on monday evening and i will be watching it closely if it does.


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Todays chart from the NYSE there are some subtle changes to the charts.
It is not as promising as yesterdays outlook, but to Quote Dow the share price that you see is the share price that contains all news and factors at that point in time. So after yesterdays "bad" news was digested the technics are not in as good shape, and if there is no more bad news on the horizon then things might just go sideways.

ranger4

Acording to irish times banks will be made to writedown bad Loans upto 5 million themselfs with nama only taking on bad Loans from 5 million plus.

silverharp

ye should probably keep an eye on indexes like this one, if you see the price is underperforming the S&P since May. Also note the volume is low on up days and higher on down days, probably a lor of distribution going on. Once these babies start going down town they will bring the Irish banks with them

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Daragh101

ranger4 wrote: »

Acording to irish times banks will be made to writedown bad Loans upto 5 million themselfs with nama only taking on bad Loans from 5 million plus.

whats this going to mean for the shareprice though?

ranger4

Daragh101 wrote: »

whats this going to mean for the shareprice though?

Nama details are what we all are waiting for haircut fig etc, but seems that banks will be allowed to continue to manage and restructure residential indevidual debt upto 5 million so i would imagine this would be possitive as the banks would not have to transfer their performing loans to nama and give chance to restructure their non performing debt which should help build their capital base.

Barr

I am considering selling some of my AIB shares at present .Could anyone advise how much tax you have to pay on profits? Also are the shares taxed automatically when you sell them or do you declare it to the revenue ?

homer911

Barr wrote: »

I am considering selling some of my AIB shares at present .Could anyone advise how much tax you have to pay on profits? Also are the shares taxed automatically when you sell them or do you declare it to the revenue ?

Check revenue.ie. Tax is dependent on any other taxable gains and the amount of profit you actually make. You get an annual allowance so CGT may be zero, depending on your actual profit. No it is not calculated automatically. You must declare it to the Revenue.

Daragh101

im not sure but i think the first 1200 or so is tax free!!!!:)
im thinking of selling tomorrow if they rise!!

pirelli

Daragh101 wrote: »

im not sure but i think the first 1200 or so is tax free!!!!:)
im thinking of selling tomorrow if they rise!!

Good timing if you did.

Daragh101

ya i sold on friday for €2.40!!! nice.:D

ranger4

Daragh101 wrote: »

ya i sold on friday for €2.40!!! nice.:D

Well Timed, We will continue with Bearish sentiment and continued fall with stocks for a while with all ears and eyes waiting for details with new proposed financial regulatory reform for us and europe allong with upcomming nama details.

deepdiver

Hi any thoughts why aib dropping big time this morning.
Was thinking on buying some of the two banks if they steadied up
next week i know everyone advising caution but any thoughts
would be great thanks.:)

ranger4

deepdiver wrote: »

Hi any thoughts why aib dropping big time this morning.
Was thinking on buying some of the two banks if they steadied up
next week i know everyone advising caution but any thoughts
would be great thanks.:)

I sold my aib postion, think aib-boi are heading lower over the summer.

eire2009

deepdiver wrote: »

Hi any thoughts why aib dropping big time this morning.
Was thinking on buying some of the two banks if they steadied up
next week i know everyone advising caution but any thoughts
would be great thanks.:)

They have only droped a little. The could drop back below 1 euro easily but if your gonna buy them now dont get too greedy if you make profits quick sell them you can always buy up again.

Personaly Im going to Thailand with the money I made earlier in the year. I cant see myself doubling my money again on them any time quick so the risk just aint worth it for me for a couple of G.

mickman

seven US banks were taken over by the FDIC over night, the largest ammount in one go since 1992. yesterdays US employment report has shown that the "green shoots of recovery" is nothing more than funny money printed by the central banks. business's are saying there is no pickup in demand at all (virgin atlantic etc). the stock market rally has been built on this reinflation story which will now unravel --- fast