The AIB Discussion Thread

NEDDURC

Looking for some clarification here -

I remember reading a little while ago in the business post a projected split of the NAMA 90billion that the government will take over - does anyone remember what this split was for AIB ie. 10billion of the 90billion.

If say it was 10billion then the loss to the bank after NAMA take it over will be say 3billion (assuming 70% haircut).
If they have taken a 2.6b hit today does that mean the remaining hit will be quite small now?
I realise alot of these figures are guesstimates but am I correct in the summary?

ranger4

Woint be too long before we see aib sp reach recent 2.40 high or even surpass it.:D

AARRRGH

Right, I'm thinking of taking a risk and buying 5k worth of AIB shares.

Could someone tell me the cheapest and easist way to buy and sell them?

My thinking is as follows:

The government appear to be willing to do anything to protect our banks (e.g. pumping billions into them, willing to screw the tax payer for decades with NAMA) so I think AIB for certain, and maybe BOI, will have a decent future. They may not hit €20 a share again, but they may hit something like €5 a share...

Daragh101

sharewatch small trader charge a flat fee of €50 per transaction (no comission just €50) as long as your investing no more than €15,000!

pocketdooz

AARRRGH wrote: »

Right, I'm thinking of taking a risk and buying 5k worth of AIB shares.

Could someone tell me the cheapest and easist way to buy and sell them?

My thinking is as follows:

The government appear to be willing to do anything to protect our banks (e.g. pumping billions into them, willing to screw the tax payer for decades with NAMA) so I think AIB for certain, and maybe BOI, will have a decent future. They may not hit €20 a share again, but they may hit something like €5 a share...

Is this not counter-intuitive?

Why would a bank succeed in a country saddled with debt run by a government who is f**king up the country as quickly as it can ??

AARRRGH

pocketdooz wrote: »

Is this not counter-intuitive?

Why would a bank succeed in a country saddled with debt run by a government who is f**king up the country as quickly as it can ??

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

woodseb

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

seriously, if that's your thinking put your 5k in a deposit account.

pocketdooz

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

You should read up on this more.

I really is not this simple.

.

AARRRGH

I have been reading the NAMA legislation. It is clearly set up to:

A. Pay over the odds for the banks bad debt
B. Extend how long the developers have to pay back their debt
C. Prevent house prices from crashing (at least in the short term)

The only risk as far as I can see it is if ACC win their court case.

If you disagree with the above, will you state your case?

ranger4

AARRRGH wrote: »

I have been reading the NAMA legislation. It is clearly set up to:

A. Pay over the odds for the banks bad debt
B. Extend how long the developers have to pay back their debt
C. Prevent house prices from crashing (at least in the short term)

The only risk as far as I can see it is if ACC win their court case.

If you disagree with the above, will you state your case?

o carroll will either get court protection tommorow or some debt buy out will occur, Too much riding on nama.

AARRRGH

ranger4 wrote: »

o carroll will either get court protection tommorow or some debt buy out will occur, Too much riding on nama.

O'Carroll/ACC is the risk factor alright, but I would imagine the amount of political pressure on the courts is unreal.

AARRRGH

AARRRGH wrote: »

Well the bank's share prices are currently low due to the amount of bad debt on their books. When NAMA removes this bad debt the share price will only go up.

At least temporarily which I when I sell for a quick profit!

What you are forgetting is that traders aren't eejits.
They will have priced all that in as it is.
You are too late with the punt.

Risk is sometimes rewarded but buying now is not a risk-buying last january was.

AARRRGH

Deleted User wrote: »

What you are forgetting is that traders aren't eejits.
They will have priced all that in as it is.
You are too late with the punt.

Risk is sometimes rewarded but buying now is not a risk-buying last january was.

I think too late is after NAMA is implemented.

deepdiver

Hi any thoughts on sp outlook seems to be hanging round the 2.05
last few days :rolleyes: maybe banks just too dodgy till nama vote.

Daragh101

i cant think of any reason to buy irish banks right now, their sh1te value.
Also god only knows what will happen to the sp when nama results are fully available!

ranger4

deepdiver wrote: »

Hi any thoughts on sp outlook seems to be hanging round the 2.05
last few days :rolleyes: maybe banks just too dodgy till nama vote.

will pobably trade sideways on daily news in a range untill haircut fig etc announced.

shamblertine

I bought shares in AIB yesterday but just realised I bought AIB shares listed on the LSE. Does anyone know what the difference is or did I just buy a UK subsidiary of AIB or something? The AIB shares on the LSE finished at 2.09 today whereas the AIB shares listed on the ISEQ finished at 2.12 today. Can anyone shed any light on the difference?

ixus

Shamblertine, I don't personally follow AIB's share price but, I'd imagine it's a cross listing to add more liquidity. In other words, to get UK investors to invest where they would not normally in Irish stock.

Check out cross listing and dual listing.

A quick email to investor relations at AIB should be able to clarify this for you further. I'm not sure what the currency exposure would be on the London listed stock for you though.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

shamblertine

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Thanks for that. So its possible to sell the shares on the ISEQ if the price is better?

Tech3

Is it too late to make to invest in shares seeing as there was more risk months ago and bad bank NAMA probably coming into effect in the next few weeks?

AARRRGH

tech2 wrote: »

Is it too late to make to invest in shares seeing as there was more risk months ago and bad bank NAMA probably coming into effect in the next few weeks?

I was considering buying AIB shares, but things are so up in the air at the moment (will Liam Carroll be granted protection? Will the Greens vote against NAMA?) it is pure gambling.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

ranger4

some buying on run upto nama starting to give upside with aib-boi sp even with negitive news from Lucy-kenny and gilmor gloomists.

duracell

http://www.fxcentre.com/equities.asp

I've 20000 shares in AIB which I bought at 1.74. Now look at them????


I wish.......

ranger4

duracell wrote: »

http://www.fxcentre.com/equities.asp

I've 20000 shares in AIB which I bought at 1.74. Now look at them????


I wish.......

Is you aib stake a long or short term investment or will you be selling into any nama bounce?

Tech3

ranger4 wrote: »

some buying on run upto nama starting to give upside with aib-boi sp even with negitive news from Lucy-kenny and gilmor gloomists.

I reckon there will be a high spike if NAMA goes ahead. It also depends on how much the government are going to give for the toxic assets.

Comordha

Independent reporting today that AIB has been approached about its stake in M&T, could yield €500-600 million.

How do you think this will affect share price, if it does at all?

It's obviously a much smaller issue when compared to NAMA etc...

ranger4

tech2 wrote: »

I reckon there will be a high spike if NAMA goes ahead. It also depends on how much the government are going to give for the toxic assets.

Sp trading in limbo range at mo on run upto nama details, More dillution for shareholders looks likely as lenihan will be forced to pay less upfront for toxic assets with further payment linked to any future upside for property market, If aib forced to sell m&t and polish stakes then i feel bank will loose its appeal to investors, boi are less exposed to irish toxic loans but have uk exposure allong with poor capital reserves, rights issue looks iniment for boi-aib possibly between oct-dec, I feel we could get bounce on nama detail release but feel heavy selling will occur on nama detail release.

Bullish

Off 3% at the moment any news, very low volume, also took a dip to 2.20