The AIB Discussion Thread

Floodzie

iknorr wrote: »

But with NAMA taking all these bad loans away....im failing to see why people are panicing. Like you, If i knew they banks were not going to be nationalised then i would invest even more right now, cos i think they are extremely undervalued.

NAMA is indeed taking the bad loans away, however this leaves a big hole in the banks' balance sheets - these loans originally contributed to the share price being up around 10 Euros.

Regarding the government owning 30% (or whatever), as far as I know the EU is taking a strict line on this, and if the government owns over a certain amount then they could be forced to fully nationalise. So yes, Lenihan may be opposed to 100% ownership, but his hands could be tied. However if they only own a part of the bank, then you still have all your shares.

I am, however, no expert - and am happy to stand corrected! This is only my understanding of the present situation.

iknorr

SkidMark wrote: »

Here is the same clip from Primetime, I think this one can be viewed outside Ireland.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1209/primetime.html

Select clip that says Brian Lenihan, Minister For Finance & Richard Bruton, Fine Gael Finance Spokesperson, discuss the measures contained in the Budget. The Bank discussion starts at about 10 mins 40 in.


If you take Brian Lenihan's comments on Primetime with those in The Irish Independent, it seems to me as though he expects the Government to end up with a majority stake in one or both of the banks, but that he hopes not to move for full nationalisation. If this happens I would expect AIB shares to fall further, although I think the recently price falls indicate that many traders have already sold on the assumption that the Government will end up with a controlling stake.

cheers i can see it now. The end about the banks seems to be a bit rushed and confusing. Im undecided.

ranger4

iknorr wrote: »

cheers i can see it now. The end about the banks seems to be a bit rushed and confusing. Im undecided.

Ratings agencys also not helping recovery spouting ****e to manipulate stocks for their own gain, the bastards have a lot to answer for.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Ratings agencys also not helping recovery spouting ****e to manipulate stocks for their own gain, the bastards have a lot to answer for.

That's the stupidest thing you've ever posted

iknorr

Not really stupid, anyone can manipulate the market if they can make the correct sale/buy.

What hes saying isnt completely out of this world.

This stock is purely based on confidence now, most people are very on edge and any bit of bad or good news can make it jump alot.....aib fell by 12% today about midday but recovered. Anyone any idea why this was?

Idu

He's accusing Moody's(I'm assuming) of trying to manipulate the share price for gain which is ridiculous

Credit outlook still bad for banks - Moody's
CHARLIE TAYLOR
The credit outlook for the Irish banking system remains negative, according to a new report from ratings agency Moody's.

The agency said the credit outlook for the country's system reflected the fact the domestic operating environment remains challenging as a result of the economic adjustments taking place.

Moody’s stressed its view is based on the likely future direction of fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months rather than a projection of rating upgrades versus downgrades.

The ratings agency said the collapse of the property market combined with the weak economic environment will continue to feed through into "very substantial arrears and losses."

“These developments have led to substantial downward changes in the weighted average Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) of rated Irish banks to D from C over the past 12 months (or, on the alphanumeric BCA scale, by 5 notches to Ba2, from A3), with a further deterioration prevented by the support that some of these banks have already received in the form of capital injections or other measures," said Ross Abercromby, lead analyst for the Irish banks at Moody’s.

Mr Abercromby said that post-Nama, banks will continue to face challenges to fully cleanse their balance sheets as the National Asset Management Agency does not capture all of the impaired assets held by financial institutions.

"As well as the remaining asset quality problems and pressure on capital, profitability is likely to reduce as a result of lower volumes and the higher costs of wholesale and retail funding," he added.

Mr Abercromby said Moody's expects regulation and Government intervention will remain a key driver for developments in the Irish banking sector over the coming years, and that EU requirements have the potential to lead to changes in the franchises of the banks that receive state aid.

Furthermore, Moody’s said any explicit or implicit reduction of the currently extraordinarily high probability of state support, at a time when the intrinsic strength of banks is still low, may result in the agency further downgrading banks’ senior debt and deposit ratings

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1215/breaking62.htm

I would love to know what exactly they have to gain on this?

pocketdooz

ranger4 wrote: »

Ratings agencys also not helping recovery spouting ****e to manipulate stocks for their own gain, the bastards have a lot to answer for.

LoL

This thead makes me smile.

.

iknorr

ah i see it now, the report does effect/affect the share price but its a little far fetched to say they are making profit from it.

His comments about Nama taking the bad debts are fair but i agree he doesnt help by saying they will continue to struggle after that.

If he said banks will be fine once Nama takes all the bad debts then im sure the share price would begin to climb again. So wouldnt it be more beneficial to say its going to be ok?

Idu

The point is they have nothing to gain from glossing over the reality of it. They are not Davy and reliant on commission and fees to operate. What would the point of a ratings agency that picked and chose what to report.

And why wouldnt they struggle after Nama. It's a pretty widely held notion that the debt Nama will inherit is not being marked at that value in the banks loan books so that'll be another chunk of supposed capital they will need to raise

pocketdooz

iknorr wrote: »

ah i see it now, the report does effect/affect the share price but its a little far fetched to say they are making profit from it.

His comments about Nama taking the bad debts are fair but i agree he doesnt help by saying they will continue to struggle after that.

If he said banks will be fine once Nama takes all the bad debts then im sure the share price would begin to climb again. So wouldnt it be more beneficial to say its going to be ok?

No, it is most beneficial to tell the truth.

.

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

No, it is most beneficial to tell the truth.

.

Most beneficial to tell the truth when it suits, Ratings agencies are as much to blame as the non exsisiting regulation which has caused this mess, Idu you may believe all the info you want from ratings agencies, Me i prefer to do my own research.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Most beneficial to tell the truth when it suits, Ratings agencies are as much to blame as the non exsisiting regulation which has caused this mess, Idu you may believe all the info you want from ratings agencies, Me i prefer to do my own research.

So tell me how exactly are Moody's gaining from this? Enlighten us oh wise one.

Dodd

Will some people are making on shorting.
http://finance.aol.com/company/allied-irish-banks-p-l-c/aib/nys/short-interest

woodseb

ranger4 wrote: »

Most beneficial to tell the truth when it suits, Ratings agencies are as much to blame as the non exsisiting regulation which has caused this mess, Idu you may believe all the info you want from ratings agencies, Me i prefer to do my own research.

is your research like this?

Does it agree with my stock position = Research

Does it conflict with my position = market manipulation from the big baddies

iknorr

Calm down everyone....
lets not say something we may regret later :rolleyes:

Shares are continuing to fall.

Has anyone got any real info to say they are going to stabilise or possible return to an upward trend?

What are your thoughts on staying in or getting out?

Floodzie

iknorr wrote: »

Calm down everyone....
lets not say something we may regret later :rolleyes:

Shares are continuing to fall.

Has anyone got any real info to say they are going to stabilise or possible return to an upward trend?

What are your thoughts on staying in or getting out?

Well, as I said before, the meeting on the 23rd should generate some relatively good news and lead to a little bump in the price. However, the 23rd is still some time away and at the rate the share price is falling the bump may not be worth the wait.

To a trader, AIB looks like this:

No dividends on ordinary shares
NAMA most likely to be accepted by shareholders on the 23rd
Shares still in freefall
More bad news to come, assuming the banks haven't been forthcoming about how much they owe, and how many foreclosures there are likely to be in 2010/2011.

...not exactly an attractive stock pick. I'm leaning more towards getting out, but hoping for a bump early in the new year. I'm already down about 40%...

iknorr

I might just jump out. Jump back in when it starts trending up again.
Ill see how they go tmro....then decide.

Any idea when the dividends will be paid again....

pocketdooz

iknorr wrote: »

Any idea when the dividends will be paid again....

No divi's on this stock mate

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

That's the stupidest thing you've ever posted

:rolleyes:

iknorr

pocketdooz wrote: »

No divi's on this stock mate

as in 2 or 3 years time?

pocketdooz

iknorr wrote: »

as in 2 or 3 years time?

Oh, thought you meant this financial year.

Not sure, maybe in 3 years time. Anybody's guess I suppose.

It depends on how much the Minister for Finance decides for his bank at that time.

.

displaced dub

if it hits €1.15 tomorrow i will be getting out.... again, although at a loss this time.

did well on the banks in september/october but now the GAMBLE is not so good.

Tech3

The shares are falling like daggers alright, I'm betting on it hitting zero in 2010 aka nationalization.

DJDC

Looks like a trade has gone bad for a lot of people......

Raskolnikov

iknorr wrote: »

Making a statement like that shows ur not so savvy yourself.

Jumping to conclusions? Do u practice that in the market also?

I don't have the first idea what an Irish bank is worth and I won't even try to guess. You know even less than me (I'm guessing this because you just asked when AIB were going to be paying a dividend), but yet you and other "investors" seem to think you know where the valuation of the bank is going.

iknorr wrote: »

Im assuming from your statement that u hang onto ur shares for years, no matter what happens to them. This is the typical attitude of Irish people holding shares. They get emotionally attached and lazy.

That statement doesn't even dignify a response.

Bullish

Come on Ranger 4 we need some of your eternal optimism now

Bullish

I am placing bets that this tread gets a lot of comments next week.....
Do you think it is a good time to buy ?
What return can I expect ?
Aib is up today should I get in ?

And ranger 4 polishes the dust off his drum and starts beating again

Raskolnikov

Bullish wrote: »

Do you think it is a good time to buy ?

Absolutely.

The combination of the full moon, the alignment of Jupiter and Venus and the recent solar activity on the sun bodes excellently for share prices.

iknorr

Raskolnikov wrote: »

I don't have the first idea what an Irish bank is worth and I won't even try to guess. You know even less than me (I'm guessing this because you just asked when AIB were going to be paying a dividend), but yet you and other "investors" seem to think you know where the valuation of the bank is going.
That statement doesn't even dignify a response.

if i knew where the valuation of the bank was going i wouldnt be on here asking questions....

i didnt ask if they were being paid this year..i asked people if they would talk about when dividends would be paid again. A few post later i i did clarify that by "as in saying 2 to 3 years time...."

You seem to be on a power trip with people here.....WUM

Anyhoo, enough of waisting time on u

ixus

Less of the personals please.

The rating agencies were certainly complicit in subprime/CDS and other forms of securitisation. I'm sure if you look in the "interesting articles" thread you'll find plenty of articles on AIG.

Where the ratings agencies fell down was maintaining high ratings on crap products. Of course, they were influenced by the fees they received for these ratings.

I fail to see how this could relate to AIB though.

Honohan talking about 50% stake now. Austrian banks being nationalised.

We're getting closer.