The AIB Discussion Thread

iknorr

Im wondering if it will stabilize a little this morning...maybe the drops yesterday were caused by the Moodys report.

I Find it strange the way people are talking about 50% state ownership.....some people are saying this will lead to nationalisation but foreign investors wont touch Ireland (general companies) due to this.
I cant see the government doing this, after promising last year that they wouldnt nationalise aib or boi.

rugbyman

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Absolutely.

The combination of the full moon, the alignment of Jupiter and Venus and the recent solar activity on the sun bodes excellently for share prices.

Dang, such certainty and confidence! no wonder you often deride "investors" with their charts and their research!

dare i suggest involving Uranus?

Regards,Rugbyman

ixus

iknorr wrote: »

I cant see the government doing this, after promising last year that they wouldnt nationalise aib or boi.

I don't think I can point out anymore clearly where you're going wrong there.

There is no conspiracy here, the government regularly makes and breaks "promises". I'm shocked people still have such naivety.

iknorr

I totally agree with you in general...i dont trust them but this would be the biggest "breaking of a promise" ever.

That just sent a shiver down my spine....

Comordha

Bad news folks, Ivan "the terrible" Yates, former Minister said on Newstalk 106this morning that he had it on good faith from the Dept. of Finance that the gov. was to take a 75% stake in AIB for 4.75Bn. Their results must be bad.

The game might be up, our little stroll through Wonderland may have come to an end. Anybody who is up big I would suggest derisking and top slicing.

iknorr

Comordha wrote: »

Bad news folks, Ivan "the terrible" Yates, former Minister said on Newstalk 106this morning that he had it on good faith from the Dept. of Finance that the gov. was to take a 75% stake in AIB for 4.75Bn. Their results must be bad.

The game might be up, our little stroll through Wonderland may have come to an end. Anybody who is up big I would suggest derisking and top slicing.

cheers for the info...any info on BOI?

Raskolnikov

iknorr wrote: »

if i knew where the valuation of the bank was going i wouldnt be on here asking questions....

The basic tenant of investing is buying something that is valued cheaply and selling it for a profit. If you can't value something, how the hell are you going to be able to figure out what you want to sell it at?

I'm not trying to be mean to anyone, I just don't like seeing people lose money.

pocketdooz

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The basic tenant of investing is buying something that is valued cheaply and selling it for a profit. If you can't value something, how the hell are you going to be able to figure out what you want to sell it at?

I'm not trying to be mean to anyone, I just don't like seeing people lose money.

Exactly

Surely the point of this forum is to share info and learn?

Unfortunately, over the past year, it has degenerated into a clan of people just throwing around random "sp"'s for the Irish Banks and other dogged Irish companies without the first clue as to how to value them.

The ridiculous notion that a falling and low "sp" is a reason to buy and that a penny stock represents good value just because it is a penny stock is abound in this forum.

Hence the "gambling" vs. "investing" undetones that have developed over the last year.

The worst part is that none of the good posters post that much anymore - DaveIRL, Idu, Ixus etc ......

I can hardly blame them .....

iknorr

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The basic tenant of investing is buying something that is valued cheaply and selling it for a profit. If you can't value something, how the hell are you going to be able to figure out what you want to sell it at?

I'm not trying to be mean to anyone, I just don't like seeing people lose money.

Thanks for the advice....

My thoughts on AIB at the moment, are that they are undervalued. I can see huge growths in this share price over time but not right now. The price is decreasing (and has been for a few weeks now) and i think all this renewed talk of nationalisation is going to cause more of a price drop.
I think the safe bet is to get out now and wait until the results of that meeting on the 23rd to re-evaluate.

anyones thoughts on this?

Floodzie

iknorr wrote: »

Thanks for the advice....

My thoughts on AIB at the moment, are that they are undervalued. I can see huge growths in this share price over time but not right now. The price is decreasing (and has been for a few weeks now) and i think all this renewed talk of nationalisation is going to cause more of a price drop.
I think the safe bet is to get out now and wait until the results of that meeting on the 23rd to re-evaluate.

anyones thoughts on this?

Yes indeed - I can certainly see more of a price drop before the 23rd. It wouldn't surprise me if we see <1 Euro by then, the way things are going.

It definitely is an undervalued stock, however that's what I was saying at 1.95 when I bought in! :-( I think I'll wait until the end of the day, and likely sell tomorrow.

pocketdooz

iknorr wrote: »

My thoughts on AIB at the moment, are that they are undervalued.

anyones thoughts on this?

Why do you think they are undervalued?

.

pocketdooz

Floodzie wrote: »

It definitely is an undervalued stock

Why do you think it is undervalued?

.

Floodzie

pocketdooz wrote: »

Why do you think it is undervalued?

.

Well in 1994, before the Celtic Tiger, they were about 4 quid. They went up to over 10-15 for most of the 2000s and right before the bust. They are the second largest bank in Ireland and it makes me feel that IF they survive being nationalised (a big if) they will be worth more than the 1.95 I paid.

So there you have it - price before the boom and the fact that they are such a large bank.

It's hard to come up with figures right now, as we just don't know what the true state of their finances are. Normally I buy based on P/E ratio and some research about the company's product (I usually buy tech stocks on the Nasdaq - I work in tech).

lucky-colm

iknorr wrote: »

Thanks for the advice....

My thoughts on AIB at the moment, are that they are undervalued. I can see huge growths in this share price over time but not right now. The price is decreasing (and has been for a few weeks now) and i think all this renewed talk of nationalisation is going to cause more of a price drop.
I think the safe bet is to get out now and wait until the results of that meeting on the 23rd to re-evaluate.

anyones thoughts on this?

i sold boi this morning with the same intention as you have.

having made good money on boi earlier in the year:D i bought back in again after the nama announcement and since have watched as all my profits dwindled:(:( i had the intention of leaving my money in and that when nama started it would boost the sp, but i was drawing close to my breakeven point so i bottled it. but it looks like the govt. are going to take a majority holding in both banks and sp should drop considerably, i may buy back in if this happens i don't know we will see

iknorr

pocketdooz wrote: »

Why do you think they are undervalued?

.

Based on the history of AIB shares, it looks like once they stabilise, people will be willing to invest again. From march til now nothing much has changed that we didnt know was going to happen already. The price went from less than 20 cent in march to a few euro back in october/november. based on that alone there is a probability to make a huge turn over.
Until all this recent "bad talk" and speculation again.

When Nama gets the bad loans and if nationalization does not take place, then i can see a huge increase in confidence in the banks again. Just like what happened from march to November.
i know past performance doesn't guarantee anything but if people are treating aib the same then there could a similar increase in price.

The banks are probably the most traded on the irish market still. alot of people are interested, if any good news pops up, i feel the price will start to trend up again, alot faster than it did previously.

I know im using "i feel" and "i believe" without any sound figures or inside information but this share seems to be very volitile and very prone to the latest news report and peoples speculation. Its not the best way to trade...but it seems to have worked ery nicely for me with aib and boi.

Just my 2 cents...

iknorr

lucky-colm wrote: »

i sold boi this morning with the same intention as you have.

having made good money on boi earlier in the year:D i bought back in again after the nama announcement and since have watched as all my profits dwindled:(:( i had the intention of leaving my money in and that when nama started it would boost the sp, but i was drawing close to my breakeven point so i bottled it. but it looks like the govt. are going to take a majority holding in both banks and sp should drop considerably, i may buy back in if this happens i don't know we will see

Sounds exactly like me. I sold my AIB today also. originally i messed up my first transaction but i sold today with 22% profit. I had about 250% with aib and 500% with boi last october/november. I started a new job, & had some tax problems(solved this morning) and began taking very little notice of the price...then about 1 week ago i got a big shock when i saw the prices.

I might sell BOI tmro. I still have a large profit % on that. But im not willing to let that go like my AIB shares.

pocketdooz

iknorr wrote: »

Based on the history of AIB shares, it looks like once they stabilise, people will be willing to invest again. From march til now nothing much has changed that we didnt know was going to happen already. The price went from less than 20 cent in march to a few euro back in october/november. based on that alone there is a probability to make a huge turn over.
Until all this recent "bad talk" and speculation again.

When Nama gets the bad loans and if nationalization does not take place, then i can see a huge increase in confidence in the banks again. Just like what happened from march to November.
i know past performance doesn't guarantee anything but if people are treating aib the same then there could a similar increase in price.

The banks are probably the most traded on the irish market still. alot of people are interested, if any good news pops up, i feel the price will start to trend up again, alot faster than it did previously.

I know im using "i feel" and "i believe" without any sound figures or inside information but this share seems to be very volitile and very prone to the latest news report and peoples speculation. Its not the best way to trade...but it seems to have worked ery nicely for me with aib and boi.

Just my 2 cents...

So, rather than thinking the company is undervalued you are basically saying you are happy to trade the volatility of the stock and trade on perceived confidence?

Nothing right or wrong here - just seeing if you have your own valuation which you were comparing the market's valuation to in saying that you thought it was undervalued.

.

iknorr

yup that sums it up. I do think the this price for the past year or so is based on confidence rather than a real calculated figure.
(im not saying that theres no true figure, just that confidence has more influence at the moment, in my opinion )

displaced dub

pocketdooz wrote: »

Exactly

Surely the point of this forum is to share info and learn?

Unfortunately, over the past year, it has degenerated into a clan of people just throwing around random "sp"'s for the Irish Banks and other dogged Irish companies without the first clue as to how to value them.

The ridiculous notion that a falling and low "sp" is a reason to buy and that a penny stock represents good value just because it is a penny stock is abound in this forum.

Hence the "gambling" vs. "investing" undetones that have developed over the last year.

The worst part is that none of the good posters post that much anymore - DaveIRL, Idu, Ixus etc ......

I can hardly blame them .....

i agree with the general lack of good posters, im a novice at this investing and i would appreciate good solid advice/opinions not the usual "leg up" or "massive upside"... some people on these boards have their heads so far up their holes that they are blinded by the sometimes silly unfounded optimism of others with about as much experiance as me...

is their other boards that i can visit? The likes of PD and a few others offer good unbiased educated opinion based on knowledge and experiance i only hope that some people here start to think about what they are saying before sitting down to type it.

ranger4

Bullish wrote: »

I am placing bets that this tread gets a lot of comments next week.....
Do you think it is a good time to buy ?
What return can I expect ?
Aib is up today should I get in ?

And ranger 4 polishes the dust off his drum and starts beating again

LoL, still holding, not getting caught up with all the panic selling, intend to hold for few years, do expect some upside with sp as shareholders agree to nama next week but in shorterm sp looks to be heading sub 1 euro before bounce, More important things to be concerned with today, race tuning my motor bike.

Floodzie

displaced dub wrote: »

i agree with the general lack of good posters, im a novice at this investing and i would appreciate good solid advice/opinions not the usual "leg up" or "massive upside"... some people on these boards have their heads so far up their holes that they are blinded by the sometimes silly unfounded optimism of others with about as much experiance as me...

is their other boards that i can visit? The likes of PD and a few others offer good unbiased educated opinion based on knowledge and experiance i only hope that some people here start to think about what they are saying before sitting down to type it.

I'm new-ish to investing too. At the moment I am also investing on the Nasdaq - it seems to be on a general upward trend for the last while: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/12122/twelve_month.stm

When investing in a tech stock (which is what the Nasdaq is composed of) I look for a stock with a price to earnings ratio (P/E - the price of the stock compared to the amount of dividends you get paid for owning it) of about 15. Then I try and find out as much about the company and its product as possible.

The average P/E of tech stocks is about 22, so 15 and a decent outlook for the company is what I consider a bargain.

More reliable industries, like electricity etc, will often have a P/E ratio of about 8 (you should get 1 Eur back every year for every 8 Eur you pay for stocks). These type of companies are less prone to volatility, unlike tech companies.

The more risk the more reward...

Last month I bought First Solar (FSOL) on the Nasdaq at 117.5, and they are doing pretty well, up about 18% so far - not bad for a month! :-) The climate talks in Copenhagen are doing the solar panel makers a favour, I'll see what the outcome is like and maybe hope to sell soon.

My rule (which I foolishly broke on AIB) is to sell when a stock drops below 10% of what I paid, or gains 20%, including transaction fees.

Everybody has their own strategy, and I look for other things than those listed above, but I hope that helps.

pocketdooz

Floodzie wrote: »

I look for a stock with a price to earnings ratio (P/E - the price of the stock compared to the amount of dividends you get paid for owning it)

Price to Earnings ratio is

Company Stock Price / Earnings Per Share (i.e. not dividend yield)

.

Floodzie

pocketdooz wrote: »

Price to Earnings ratio is

Company Stock Price / Earnings Per Share (i.e. not dividend yield)

.

Yeah, sorry! Typing this in work with one hand on the Alt+TAB keys and a rubber neck from keeping an eye out for the boss...

pocketdooz

Floodzie wrote: »

Yeah, sorry! Typing this in work with one hand on the Alt+TAB keys and a rubber neck from keeping an eye out for the boss...

No worries, just don't want you assigning Zero P/E ratios to half the stocks on the NASDAQ cos they dont pay divi's !!

.

iknorr

Floodzie, Your info helps alot. Thanks

Like u Im relatively new & im using a % decrease rule for selling & keeping an eye on the SMA also.
I didnt have anything like this up to a month ago . if i had something like that in place back then...id have cashed out & having about 20k more profit right now.
So I recommend anyone new to set out some guidlines, especially whena share price decreases.

Which company/broker do you use. Im currently with Goodbodies via AIB , fees are high but i havent heard much about any other brokers.

Where do u get your company info from?

ixus

iknorr - If you look at AIB based on history, surely you must remember they had to be bailed out in the 80/90's (i can't remember the decade)? Tehy are doomed to failure and repeat based upon their arrogance IMHO.

As for the undervalued part; what is in their present loan book and assets that you think is quality?

And finally, how will AIB make money in the future? Who will they loan to for their bread and butter? The debt riddled Irish?

I'm not taking the proverbial here, I just don't see where they can make money.

iknorr

ixus wrote: »

iknorr - If you look at AIB based on history, surely you must remember they had to be bailed out in the 80/90's (i can't remember the decade)? Tehy are doomed to failure and repeat based upon their arrogance IMHO.

As for the undervalued part; what is in their present loan book and assets that you think is quality?

And finally, how will AIB make money in the future? Who will they loan to for their bread and butter? The debt riddled Irish?

I'm not taking the proverbial here, I just don't see where they can make money.

I agree...as a bank they are falling apart.

That doesnt mean that the shares prices wont increase. Im looking at this share from a confidence point for view...Right now...there doesnt seem to be any...Im out ...but i might jump back in on the 23rd

Regards the history...i was talking about the short term...from march this year to present. Apologies if i didnt make that clear

displaced dub

iknorr wrote: »

I agree...as a bank they are falling apart.

That doesnt mean that the shares prices wont increase. Im looking at this share from a confidence point for view...Right now...there doesnt seem to be any...Im out ...but i might jump back in on the 23rd

Regards the history...i was talking about the short term...from march this year to present. Apologies if i didnt make that clear

The vote on the 23rd is a formality, does anyone honestly think AIB are going to say no to NAMA???

imo the sp already reflects the vote on the 23rd

Floodzie

iknorr wrote: »

Floodzie, Your info helps alot. Thanks

Like u Im relatively new & im using a % decrease rule for selling & keeping an eye on the SMA also.
I didnt have anything like this up to a month ago . if i had something like that in place back then...id have cashed out & having about 20k more profit right now.
So I recommend anyone new to set out some guidlines, especially whena share price decreases.

Which company/broker do you use. Im currently with Goodbodies via AIB , fees are high but i havent heard much about any other brokers.

Where do u get your company info from?

I usually use finance.yahoo.com most of the time, it's easy to create your portfolio and set up alerts when prices go to certain levels.

I am using Goodbodies too, but I will probably change as they are fairly expensive. 32 Eur to buy, 32 Eur to sell and 27 Eur per year. It's not so bad if you are investing a few grand but smaller buys - around a grand - mean that you need to get about a 7% return just to break even. A good reliable stock should return about 8% a year if you're lucky... I might move to sharewatch.ie as I think they are cheaper and also (but not sure if this is right) they allow stop-loss, ie automatic selling when a price gets below a certain limit.

The hardest part is knowing when to cash out. You're right, just set yourself rules and get out no matter what, even if it means losing money. You can never predict the top or bottom of the market.

Floodzie

pocketdooz wrote: »

No worries, just don't want you assigning Zero P/E ratios to half the stocks on the NASDAQ cos they dont pay divi's !!

.

I know, and now neither do AIB! That means about half my portfolio doesn't pay dividends :-)))