The AIB Discussion Thread

Floodzie

iknorr wrote: »

Where do u get your company info from?

Forgot to mention - I get company info just from googling, checking out technical terms on wikipedia and seeing what other analysts are saying about the area.

Press releases that indicate a change of management in a company can mean the place is in trouble, but then I see how a share price did for the new guy's previous company, while he (it's always a 'he') was there. A change of management can often lead to a small bump on a share price and can be a good time to get out.

I have worked at a LOT of tech companies (I'm a contractor) and press releases are always optimistic, even when things are bad. It's best to know someone who knows the industry or who has dealt with the company. This is usually ok.

Plenty of info online if you dig deep enough. Have a look at historical drops in a share price and see what people were saying (and the press releases) just before the drop, to give you an idea of how much b.s. is out there.

And remember Goldmans law - "nobody knows anything" :-)

displaced dub

out... althoough gamble paid off from august to NAMA, the idea to buy back in and gamble again was foolish,

i've learned my lesson. Good bye AIB

Floodzie

displaced dub wrote: »

out... althoough gamble paid off from august to NAMA, the idea to buy back in and gamble again was foolish,

i've learned my lesson. Good bye AIB

Still in... my portfolio overall is doing fine, but AIB is a bit of a drag. Going to hang on a little while longer although I won't be surprised if we see <1 Euro soon...

displaced dub

you could see €1 by 4.30 today

Comordha

Gents, I hate to say it but I think it's over.....................

rugbyman

Comordha wrote: »

Gents, I hate to say it but I think it's over.....................

Comordha, i have read some of your posts with interest,
re the above, could you elaborate?
and if possible, say why?

Regards, Rugbyman

heebusjeebus

What do ye make of this in the market report in the Irish Times today:

A Dublin-based dealer noted that the banks were now trading in an information vacuum until the end of January, when investors will receive more clarity about the price Nama will pay for loans.

I'm stuck with AIB for the long haul so hopefully there will be a bounce once NAMA kicks off. I'm being as optimistic as I can though (I bought this time last year for €1.72 a share).

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/1224260898602.html

Floodzie

heebusjeebus wrote: »

What do ye make of this in the market report in the Irish Times today:



I'm stuck with AIB for the long haul so hopefully there will be a bounce once NAMA kicks off. I'm being as optimistic as I can though (I bought this time last year for €1.72 a share).

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/1224260898602.html

I think it sounds exactly right. We have heard nothing about AIB other than a meeting being called for Dec 23rd to 'discuss' (ie implement) the NAMA sale. Other than that it really has been an information vacuum. It now looks likely that we will have to wait until after the NAMA valuations in Spring are announced to see any decent positive movement on the share price.

Also the situation in Greece is giving investors the jitters... I've read a few articles that are saying 'Ireland next'. While I don't think we will default, the fact is that to international investors Ireland and Irish banks have a very negative image at the moment.

For what it's worth, I bought last month at 1.95... convinced I had seen the bottom of the share price! Silly me... But still going to ride this one out and hope for a better price in the new year.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

displaced dub

displaced dub wrote: »

you could see €1 by 4.30 today

sorry, i was out by a few trading hours... they are now €1.00 as of 10.40am.

Bullish

It will prob bounce soon.. and if you like it at 1 you will love it when it reaches .70

pocketdooz

AIB now trading sub - €1.00

My brain was circling thoughts about the banking shares and scratch cards.

It could be a whole new marketing strategy for the corporate divisions of our banks.

Similar price point, similar product.

DUBISAK

This is a long tread, and today is the first day I have read it. Some interesting posts. I hold both AIB and BOI shares, and as level for both is less than what I paid I am not preparded to sell.

I am just wondering about 1 thing, answer may be in the tread somewhere but i did not see it. - If the banks are nationalised, will investors lose their full holdings or will they receive some payment for shares, or will shares tranfered to nationalised bank taht could be traded again if bank comes out of nationalisation?

Raskolnikov

DUBISAK wrote: »

If the banks are nationalised, will investors lose their full holdings

If Anglo Irish Bank was anything to go by; you lose everything.

pocketdooz

DUBISAK wrote: »

This is a long tread, and today is the first day I have read it. Some interesting posts. I hold both AIB and BOI shares, and as level for both is less than what I paid I am not preparded to sell.

I am just wondering about 1 thing, answer may be in the tread somewhere but i did not see it. - If the banks are nationalised, will investors lose their full holdings or will they receive some payment for shares, or will shares tranfered to nationalised bank taht could be traded again if bank comes out of nationalisation?

could prove to be painful .......

.

Tiesto

Ive seen a lot of talk recently about the government becoming the majority shareholder in both banks. Does that count as nationalisation or must the government own all of the bank?
in otherwords, if they own 51%, will i lose everything

woodseb

nationalisation is when the govt takes 100% and you lose everything....if they take 51%, your holding is diluted but you still have a share

Tiesto

ok thanks for that.
As long as they are diluted using a base price of around 10 euro a share!!

Bullish

Anyone hear from Ranger4, I hear he got a big bottle of pledge and is polishing that drum up real good LOL

Floodzie

Currently at 1.25 - up an amazing 20% on yesterday, market starting to reverse the panic that set in after Governor Honohan's comments yesterday.

That doesn't mean that the governor isn't right, just that while his words spooked investors people are starting to realise he wasn't saying anything new. Wish I'd taken the plunge and bought some shares yesterday, would have sold them today and be up 20%! Ah, hindsight...

Although as a previous poster on here asked, what the hell are we even doing buying Irish financials - why not French and German? They're in much better form (and pay dividends), aren't as risky and there's no FX rate.

I think after the extraordinary bounce for the banks following last March's record low, people are hoping for a repeat with AIB and hope to see them jump up to a few Euros per share. I know I was. Right now I'm just seeing what's the least amount I can lose...

ranger4

Bullish wrote: »

Anyone hear from Ranger4, I hear he got a big bottle of pledge and is polishing that drum up real good LOL

Bought more boi yesterday, this little rally could last another day or so. doint be afraid, LoL.:D

@Bullish, I don't like the personal's, especially when someone is potentially losing money. Be mindful please. (Ixus)

iknorr

I was away there for a few days....wtf happeneing today with the bank shares.
Was there some good news announced?

SoulTrader

@ iknorr:

None that I know of - I came desperately close myself to cutting my losses and selling y'day. The link might help explain the rally:

http://www.fxcentre.com/news.asp?2529735

Comordha

1pm news - more negativity, 'N' word cropped up a couple of times. Notice how the %'s are rising, it started off at 25%, then 50% and today there was mention of 80-90% Govt Holding.

Floodzie

1.35 - wow that was a hell of a rally these last 2 days!

I hope somebody was buying bank shares on Monday...

ranger4

Floodzie wrote: »

1.35 - wow that was a hell of a rally these last 2 days!

I hope somebody was buying bank shares on Monday...

Floodzie

ranger4 wrote: »

If I were you, I'd sell, take the money and run.

displaced dub

Floodzie wrote: »

If I were you, I'd sell, take the money and run.

he would im sure, but im also sure he's currently at a loss

Floodzie

displaced dub wrote: »

he would im sure, but im also sure he's currently at a loss

I was talking about the shares he bought on Monday, but yeah I'm sure there are a lot of us currently at a loss overall. I'm doing fine on some trades but my portfolio is down in total.

Bullish

IXUS, it was a joke and Pirelli I hope took it the way it was intended, I would never wish someone to loose money...... If you are going to censor jokes possibly I am at the wrong site,

IXUS are you long AIB by any chance ?