The AIB Discussion Thread

AntiRip

Just got a tweet from breakfastnt. Something not looking good for AIB.

We're chasing a big banking story. Hearing of big problems in AIB - Chris

displaced dub

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-fights-tooth-and-nail-in-bid-to-stay-out-of-state-ownership-2114071.html

AntiRip

No great surprise really :-)

pocketdooz

Tiesto wrote: »

Apparently davy believe the state ownership for either bank wont exceed 20%

Another quality bit of research by Davy

displaced dub

I know PD i have an account with Davys and im still wondering when someone is going to call or mail me to ask me am i happy with the service or would i like to go on one of their training days..... which i do need to do!!

pocketdooz

displaced dub wrote: »

I know PD i have an account with Davys and im still wondering when someone is going to call or mail me to ask me am i happy with the service or would i like to go on one of their training days..... which i do need to do!!

Their recent track record has been less than inspiring (credit union debacle, pumping CFDs, Irish Glass Bottle Site, Buy recommendations on BOI, AIB and Anglo etc.etc.).

Now looks like AIB will be 70% government owned and BOI 40-50%. Do these new %'s include the outstanding warrants of 25% ?? If not, then AIB is essentially nationalised.

Also, there are some serious rumblings at the moment of further scandals that are coming to light this week around NAMA, Anglo etc.

This is just a disaster getting worse and worse.

Time Magazine

pocketdooz wrote: »

Another quality bit of research by Davy

Lol, they really have come out with some clangers of late. Is it a foolish belief in technical analysis, or a behavioural response in spite of fundamentals d'ya reckon?

Just heard a rumour from a finance head that the banks will be nationalised this week. Grain of salt, of course, because I doubt the government is smart enough to do that. Still, 20% down this morning. Surely a great time to buy?! :pac:

displaced dub

AntiRip wrote: »

Just got a tweet from breakfastnt. Something not looking good for AIB.

We're chasing a big banking story. Hearing of big problems in AIB - Chris

goes to show the media are full of shi*e, maybe the AIB they ment was Anglo Irish Bank..

Still AIB looking seriously dodgy with a 43% haircut.

Time Magazine

displaced dub wrote: »

goes to show the media are full of shi*e

One person on Twitter does not the media make.

displaced dub

what about the times and the indo running the same story

displaced dub

just thought i would Bump this as its gone very very quite which usually happens when things go bad

AntiRip

lock it up I say

ranger4

AntiRip wrote: »

lock it up I say

Waiting till sp falls to 1.00e.

dotsman

OK, thought there would be a lot more discussion on this thread! The BOI one is still very active yet, for me, AIB has by far the most to be questioned and debated. Anyway...

My query (and I hope someone here has strong enough knowledge - and not just gossiping/bs-ing!) is in relation to the "big sell-off".

From what I can gather, AIB need to raise circa €7.5 Billion by the end of the year to meet the capital requirements. Now, most of the media/commentators are predicting the sell-off will net them somewhere between €3.5-€5 Billion of that (which, in itself is a massive range to be debated/predicted), but that the other €2.5 Billion will have to come from the government, thus a massive government shareholding.

But, am I missing something, or have the media missed it? Surely, if AIB sells off all these subsidiaries (and notably GB), would the capital requirements not be much lower? i.e. Does it still need an extra €7.5 Billion even without all those loans on it's books? Does anyone know the answer to this (and, in particular what the figures would be)?

AP_MAN

huge increase in SP today, 13%. Does any one know the reason?

woodseb

AP_MAN wrote: »

huge increase in SP today, 13%. Does any one know the reason?

upgrade from RBS today

Bank of Ireland Plc rose 3.6 percent to 1.86 euros.
RBS analysts including Asheefa Sarangi in London raised
Allied Irish to “buy” from “sell” and set a share-price
estimate of 1.75 euros. The upgrade comes a week after the
lender began transferring toxic loans to a state asset agency
and said it would sell U.S. and Polish assets to boost capital
and meet a new target set by the financial regulator.
“While we accept that a degree of uncertainty and high
execution risk remains over the coming months, we believe this
provides a buying opportunity for investors,” Sarangi said.

Eugene M

Anybody have any tips on shares to buy. I am thinking BOI, AIB Aer Lingus on ISE or Legal & General on UK

pocketdooz

Eugene M wrote: »

Anybody have any tips on shares to buy. I am thinking BOI, AIB Aer Lingus on ISE or Legal & General on UK

Why?

Tiesto

Eugene M wrote: »

Anybody have any tips on shares to buy. I am thinking BOI, AIB Aer Lingus on ISE or Legal & General on UK

Anglo FTW

Eugene M

I just think that that these shares are at their lowest

Raskolnikov

Eugene M wrote: »

I just think that that these shares are at their lowest

Go for it.

the overlap

From aib banking online:

We wish to advise that AIB Internet Banking is currently experiencing technical issues. We are currently working on a resolution. We apologise for any inconvenience caused and appreciate your patience while this matter is being addressed.

10:45am 28/05/2010

dotsman

the overlap wrote: »

From aib banking online:

We wish to advise that AIB Internet Banking is currently experiencing technical issues. We are currently working on a resolution. We apologise for any inconvenience caused and appreciate your patience while this matter is being addressed.

10:45am 28/05/2010

I think you might be on the wrong thread here! Yeah, I noticed the online banking was down this morning. Was back up soon after so all's well! Someone obviously forgot to feed the hamster:)

rpm1

Tiesto wrote: »

Apparently davy believe the state ownership for either bank wont exceed 20%

what is the ownership at now?

rpm1

anyone think the share price will rally of the lows?

AntiRip

rpm1 wrote: »

what is the ownership at now?

I think it's in the region of 90% after cash injection.

Scarab80

Got a query on this share price.

Pre 30th September announcement AIB was trading at about 50c with 1bn shares in issue indicating a market cap of 500m.

The government announced that they would fully underwrite the 5.4bn capital raising effort for 10.8bn shares at 50c. With 92% of the stock locked in at 50c this should have provided strong price resistance at that level?

Still the price has continued to slide with a share price of 34c indicating that after the 5.4bn capital raising the company will be worth 4bn so the current shareholders are insolvent to the tune of 1.4bn, possibly more when you consider that preference shares paying 8% will be converted to common stock.

My question is why was there no price resistance at 50c? Is the market pricing in the chance of the bank being fully nationalised with shareholder rights dissolved or that the capital raising will be adjusted and launched at a lower price? The share price seems like it has to be either 50c or nothing, what am I missing?

OfflerCrocGod

There is a lot of uncertainty around Ireland and AIB so it's share price is being tanked beyond the known, reasonable fact but if I where investing I wouldn't touch AIB with a barge pole until at least Ireland has worked itself back to a more stable position and will therefore be less likely to wipe out shareholders in AIB via nationalization.

You see it's the unknown unknowns that are the problem.

PCPhoto

whispers I've heard the deal is done - Dept of finance to make an announcement at 1pm

rumour that I'm hearing is that AIB is nationalised - wonder have the government informed the stock exchange

however - due to recent powers given to the department of Finance - reporting on the "potential" deal are not to be reported ... apparently this new finance bill which was passed allowed the dept of finance to make deals and force the media not to make any reference to it

beagle001

97% ownership apparently,to be fully nationalised in February