The AIB Discussion Thread

Mr Benevolent

Aha, light dawns!

stepbar

Confab wrote: »

If that's the case, then why are people buying now and not waiting until it drops on Friday?

Because people still think there's value to be had. More fool to them......

Mr Benevolent

So, is there any point in buying AIB shares, even after Friday and keep them for 1-2 years?

Bicky

The Economist wrote: »

Unfortunately ou're going to have to go a good bit higher than that. Some places charge €40 to make a trade, etc.

What is the minimum it would be worth trading?

road_2_damascus

rugbyman wrote: »

to Ranger 4

I bought 2,000 AIB at 41 cent a few days ago. Can bank profit of 392 euro today. But I intend to hold on. I am a big believer in taking profits but I feel that AIB is the safest (?) bank in Ireland.

Daveirl aked

Is AIB at 99c still a buy?

Dave did not indicate whether he thought they were or not. he just put the question to a poster whose reasoning he disagreed with.

I think yes. Davys notes yesterday indicated that their Polish bank alone was worth twice the parents market capitalisation.



Regards,Rugbyman

sell before February 16th...dollar crash expected

wyndham

€1.35 @ 9am, sell off began early this morning.

ranger4

wyndham wrote: »

€1.35 @ 9am, sell off began early this morning.

now 1.20 @ 9.35, does the sell off look like continuing today with us futures presently on the neg side, we could see aib back below 1 euro by tommorow.

woodseb

road_2_damascus wrote: »

sell before February 16th...dollar crash expected

oh, i heard it will be Feb 12th , must check my diary again:rolleyes:

Villain

Back on the increase, looks like the next set of short profit making is underway be interesting to see how they climb again.

ranger4

Villain wrote: »

Back on the increase, looks like the next set of short profit making is underway be interesting to see how they climb again.

Could fall further and even extend fall tommorow.:(

Idu

its like a gamblers anonymous meeting in here

Mr Benevolent

€1.27 now. Think I'll wait till tomorrow!

-mr.x-

thats wat investing is you can only predict so much:eek:

pocketdooz

-mr.x- wrote: »

thats wat investing is you can only predict so much:eek:

No it's not

I would hazard a guess that you know nothing if anything about AIB's management team, international revenue and profit breakout, EBITDA figures, revenue growth, loan book, bad debt provisions, union policies, IR contracts, pension funding liabilities, gross fixed assets, margins, valuation of their intangibles, sources of funding, credit ratings, debt maturities, largest shareholders, largest debt holders

etc.etc

That . . . is what "investing" is really about.


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corny

road_2_damascus wrote: »

sell before February 16th...dollar crash expected

Why will the dollar crash on the 16th? Going over to the states in April. Was going to get the dollars now but should i wait?

Apologies if this is off topic.

MrsJohnMurphy

I have been reading loads of investment books, bloomberg articles etc for about two years and today made my first trade :cool:

Got in on AIB at 1.29, I am in for the long hual and am delighted to get in at that price after it seems to have bounced off the bottom last week. Way I see it, alot of investors panicked last week after Anglo got nationalised and bailed out taking whatever they could get.

Ive watched them closely all the way from the top. The 50p etc prices last week were silly if you ask me as the panic detached the fundamentals from the reality.

AIB and BOI have a strong longterm dominant position in terms of their branch network and customer base. If Buffet was Irish, surely he'd be snaping up AIB at the moment, so I am happy to do so.

mjm

pocketdooz

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

I have been reading loads of investment books, bloomberg articles etc for about two years and today made my first trade :cool:

Got in on AIB at 1.29, I am in for the long hual and am delighted to get in at that price after it seems to have bounced off the bottom last week. Way I see it, alot of investors panicked last week after Anglo got nationalised and bailed out taking whatever they could get.

Ive watched them closely all the way from the top. The 50p etc prices last week were silly if you ask me as the panic detached the fundamentals from the reality.

AIB and BOI have a strong longterm dominant position in terms of their branch network and customer base. If Buffet was Irish, surely he'd be snaping up AIB at the moment, so I am happy to do so.

mjm

Good luck with your first investment.

After 2 years of studying you just bought into a failing banking institution paying no dividend, plagued by bad debts, in a country in recession with rising unemployment levels and a dying property market.

And there is no way in hell Buffett would touch this dog with a bargepole.



EDIT: If you can get out now without making a loss that would be a good trade imo

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MrsJohnMurphy

pocketdooz wrote: »

Good luck with your first investment.

After 2 years of studying you just bought into a failing banking institution paying no dividend, plagued by bad debts, in a country in recession with rising unemployment levels and a dying property market.

And there is no way in hell Buffett would touch this dog with a bargepole.

EDIT: If you can get out now without making a loss that would be a good trade imo

.

Thanks for your opinion. Ive only invested a few bob that I can afford to loose and am a very patient person. I wont need to sell in the short term and am quiet happy to wait years and sit on these and take my chances.

mjm

pocketdooz

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

Thanks for your opinion. Ive only invested a few bob that I can afford to loose and am a very patient person. I wont need to sell in the short term and am quiet happy to wait years and sit on these and take my chances.

mjm

I wish I had money I could afford to lose.

Where do you guys get this magical worthless money from anyway ?


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Heraldoffreeent

pocketdooz wrote: »

I wish I had money I could afford to lose.

Where do you guys get this magical worthless money from anyway ?


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Any investment is a gamble, if you're buying any share directly, you have to be prepared to loose it all.
If you're not then leave the money under the mattress.
Risk/Reward.

Idu

Welcome to the forum and congratulations on your first trade. Good luck with it.

Like pocketdooz I'm not too taken with your choice of trade but fair play for actually having done the research previously. The norm these days seems to be to pile in based on historical prices and ask questions after which is a real pet peeve of mine.

Can I ask why you didn't buy last week when you said the prices were silly and detached from fundamentals? If you recognized it then why did you hold off till now when prices are retreating after strong gains?

Also to everyone out there the terms long term and money you can afford to lose do not justify trading positions. Seems to be the rebuttal of choice these days to questions on trades. Anyone who wants to trade seriously should read marathonic or pocketdoozs threads on their stock picks and see what makes for a good investment. While nobody can get it right all the time at least these two base their picks on fundamentals rather than gut instinct

professore

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

I wont need to sell in the short term and am quiet happy to wait years and sit on these and take my chances.

mjm

That was my strategy for eircom shares ... ended up with a few worthless vodafone shares in the end.

Idu

Heraldoffreeent wrote: »

Any investment is a gamble, if you're buying any share directly, you have to be prepared to loose it all.
If you're not then leave the money under the mattress.
Risk/Reward.

It's been explained much better than I could a few posts earlier but no, just no. This is the battle cry of the ill informed

justfortherecor

pocketdooz wrote: »

No it's not

I would hazard a guess that you know nothing if anything about AIB's management team, international revenue and profit breakout, EBITDA figures, revenue growth, loan book, bad debt provisions, union policies, IR contracts, pension funding liabilities, gross fixed assets, margins, valuation of their intangibles, sources of funding, credit ratings, debt maturities, largest shareholders, largest debt holders

etc.etc

That . . . is what "investing" is really about.


.

Unfortunately, that is not what investing is like at all in the current environment.

The market is largely moving on pure momentum at the moment. Herd instincts and large swings, largely detached from any fundamentals, are the characteristics of the current bear market.

I'd agree that knowing the above info is very helpful and necessary in normal times, but these simply are not normal times.

Heraldoffreeent

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

It's been explained much better than I could a few posts earlier but no, just no. This is the battle cry of the ill informed

As the previous poster said, the above doesn't hold in the current climate,the position in the market re AIB is that there are two contrasting views at the moment,:longterm its a good investment-v-the doomsday scenario,looking at all of the usual indicators won't give you a 100% correct answer.The true position would only be ascertained by looking at each loan on the loan book and applying a measure of stress testing, which no PI has the resources to do.
As to me being ill-informed, well maybe I am, but I prefer it to being arrogant.
How well informed was Sean Quinn regarding ANGL?

Idu

I would argue that a professional investor would simply stay away from companies that cannot be properly assessed in the current climate like the banks because as you say the correct investment indicators are not available.

I know that some of Davy's investors have stopped investing in the banks and they were the most bullish of all when it came to banks six months to a year ago

MrsJohnMurphy

>Can I ask why you didn't buy last week when you said the prices were silly and detached from fundamentals? If you recognized it then why did you hold off till now when prices are retreating after strong gains?

I took some money out of the bank on Weds to do it but then something very important came up at home and I was off the web and away from the news for 2 days, so it only happened this week.

As a firsttimer I obviously dont want to throw away the money, so I wasnt going to buy in while they were still failing. As i said I am happy enough to believe that last weeks prices were down to the post Anglo panic, and 1.29 for a long term investment is not a bad starting position.

mjm

pocketdooz

justfortherecor wrote: »

Unfortunately, that is not what investing is like at all in the current environment.

The market is largely moving on pure momentum at the moment. Herd instincts and large swings, largely detached from any fundamentals, are the characteristics of the current bear market.

I'd agree that knowing the above info is very helpful and necessary in normal times, but these simply are not normal times.

Of course it is. Maybe you're referring to the recent volatility in Irish and UK banking stocks ? So you don't think the fundamentals are what have driven prices down by 70-90% ? You don't think it's the fact they have gone from very profitable to not profitable ? That their marigns have been crushed ? That their asset bases have been devalued significantly ? That their cost of credit has dramatically increased and their access to credit as significantly contracted ?

If not then I think you need to examine things more closely. Investing, in the true sense of the word IS dependent on what I outlines above among other things.



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pocketdooz

Heraldoffreeent wrote: »

As the previous poster said, the above doesn't hold in the current climate,the position in the market re AIB is that there are two contrasting views at the moment,:longterm its a good investment-v-the doomsday scenario,looking at all of the usual indicators won't give you a 100% correct answer.The true position would only be ascertained by looking at each loan on the loan book and applying a measure of stress testing, which no PI has the resources to do.
As to me being ill-informed, well maybe I am, but I prefer it to being arrogant.
How well informed was Sean Quinn regarding ANGL?

So real investors stay away form this stock and gamblers lap it up - hence proving the point.



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Mr Benevolent

Hmmm. Think I'll stay away from the banks so. Thanks guys!