The AIB Discussion Thread

Dob74

-mr.x- wrote: »

it a concept

I agree, but it isn't a good business plan.

silverburn

pocketdooz wrote: »

And there is no way in hell Buffett would touch this dog with a bargepole.

.

Warren Buffett tells Berkshire Hathaway shareholders he made investing mistakes in 2008

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett says he made at least one major investing mistake last year by buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.

The famous investor recounted his errors in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders released Saturday morning.

Berkshire increased its stake in ConocoPhillips from 17.5 million shares in 2007 to 84.9 million shares at the end of 2008.

Buffett says he did not anticipate last year's dramatic fall in energy prices, so his decision cost Berkshire shareholders several billion dollars.

Buffett says he also spent $244 million on stock in two Irish banks that appeared cheap. But since then, he's had to write down the value of those purchases to $27 million.

pocketdooz

Wow, that's very surprising.

It's written in his 2008 letter.

See page 16 - file attached

Idu

Someone should send him a link to boards. We could have saved the great man a few quid!!:D

pocketdooz

Idu wrote: »

Someone should send him a link to boards. We could have saved the great man a few quid!!:D

Amateur imo :cool:

trevm

AIB announced its 2008 performance today.It mentioned something about .66 cent per share. If some body has shares in AIB do they get a dividend and if so how much per share?
Also how long do you need to own the shares before your paid a dividend on them?

woodseb

trevm wrote: »

AIB announced its 2008 performance today.It mentioned something about .66 cent per share. If some body has shares in AIB do they get a dividend and if so how much per share?
Also how long do you need to own the shares before your paid a dividend on them?

66 was their earnings per share. AIB won't be paying a dividend at all in the next while

trevm

ah i see. Ok Cool thanks

Villain

The Volume of AIB shares traded today is huge, down to 34 cent, anyone hear anything?

homer911

Just noticed it myself - maybe Warren Buffet decided to cut his losses, or that the bank is now an even better value buy?

Villain

down 18% someone has offloaded a lot

-mr.x-

ya theres was defo a big offload, i wonder when the government will decide what there going to do with the banks

Compak

yes but what about the big trading of 20million shares that caused it to rise afterhours to 39c.
However as wanted closing price strikes fear down 18%.
remember the last heavy drop-last week- brought about the revelation that T.Rowe bought 5% of company for a number of American banks including 2.5% for JP Morgan.

Dont rule out sp manipulation.

homer911

34c

Compak

No 39c. seriously people dont invest if ye dont do the work.

yous are like dogs and the marketmakers have the treats.

shares were dumped at 4.30 to drive down price and continue the panic. However 20 million bought after hours and price finished 39c.

Reading here its easy to see how Desmond and American institutes can take big stakes and instead of sp going up they can drop it more to buy more

Villain

27 Cent the race to the bottom is flat out

ranger4

Villain wrote: »

27 Cent the race to the bottom is flat out

Can a gov statement explaining what they will choose for bad debt e.g bad bank-entitiy or insurance of bad debt be enough to reduce aibs current 635bps credit defaut spread.

Compak

Villain wrote: »

27 Cent the race to the bottom is flat out

and back up to 32 after hours as 2 million are picked up while noone notices

Villain

32 Cent is still very serious, I can't understand the Media not covering it, perhaps they are afraid they would cause a run on Deposits, although I know some big money houses are flat out moving money from Irish Banks out of the country for Customers.

MrsJohnMurphy

Compak wrote: »

No 39c. seriously people dont invest if ye dont do the work.

yous are like dogs and the marketmakers have the treats.

shares were dumped at 4.30 to drive down price and continue the panic. However 20 million bought after hours and price finished 39c.

Reading here its easy to see how Desmond and American institutes can take big stakes and instead of sp going up they can drop it more to buy more

I splashed 1400 quid on shares a few weeks ago at 1.29 after they bounced back strongly off some steps falls the week before.

Sharewatch says today that volume traded was 10+ million shares.

Someone obviously keeps buying dispite the fear of nationalisation ... very strange especially hearing rumours like those above.

Is this a good time for the small amateur investor like myself to throw in another few hundred quid to double up with an eye to the long term, 5 years say? Hard to know what to do. These people buying large numbers of shares obviously reckon it aint going to get nationalised!?

Confused!?

mjm

Raskolnikov

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

Someone obviously keeps buying dispite the fear of nationalisation ... very strange especially hearing rumours like those above.

When share prices fall, that means that more people want to sell than buy! Simply, no one wants these shares. Investors are taking whatever they can get for them.

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

Is this a good time for the small amateur investor like myself to throw in another few hundred quid to double up with an eye to the long term, 5 years say?

The hedge funds who are unloading their positions are probably grateful!

MrsJohnMurphy

Raskolnikov wrote: »

When share prices fall, that means that more people want to sell than buy! Simply, no one wants these shares.

Yeah I know that lots of people want to sell, but somebody obviously wants them, 10+ million approx, 3 million euros worth of shares were bought today.

Key question is are these rumours of high profile people and certain institutions buying shares true or rubbish?

mjm

Dob74

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

Yeah I know that lots of people want to sell, but somebody obviously wants them, 10+ million approx, 3 million euros worth of shares were bought today.

Key question is are these rumours of high profile people and certain institutions buying shares true or rubbish?

mjm

Is that Dermot Desmond? Would like to know who whats to buy them.
They are cheap but will they go bankrupt?
The gov would probably save them

Compak

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

I splashed 1400 quid on shares a few weeks ago at 1.29 after they bounced back strongly off some steps falls the week before.

Sharewatch says today that volume traded was 10+ million shares.

Someone obviously keeps buying dispite the fear of nationalisation ... very strange especially hearing rumours like those above.

Is this a good time for the small amateur investor like myself to throw in another few hundred quid to double up with an eye to the long term, 5 years say? Hard to know what to do. These people buying large numbers of shares obviously reckon it aint going to get nationalised!?

Confused!?

mjm

Here are the faacts

1) Dont listen to sharewatch its always wrong.

Today 20million traded (2million after hours inclusive)
Yesterday 28 million
Day before or monday cant remember, 48 million (20million after hours)
Last Friday 85 million (30million after hours)

just on ISE

now on each these days at 4.30 on the spot millions get offloaded. thats right millions sp drops right down. after hours big buys go through sp goes back up but official close stays at 4.30price. at 8 open price is the afterhours close but its walloped down in few mins.

Whatever is happening its not Joe soap buying/selling, million share trades are going through.
Is it beng fixed?
Are funds offloading to idiot people with too much money?
Are institutes loving this and buying up and spreading fear?

Who knows. i know im fearful for the first time so cant blame others

Remember T. ROwe got 5% holding last year on behalf of American banks and this was announced before recent high trading activity

Bearcat

I have 90,000 shares in aib yes 90k and they are as valuable now as the 90k sheaths of bog roll in my jacks. I have basically written them off, and my kids can benefit from them if they ever return which I doubt.

I am very very confused though. The govt (appears) to stand idly by but there is masssive trading going on.

Can some one just say what they think is going on and as a guy in the financial game said to me a whole generation is wiped out over this...unreal stuff.

It doesnt bother me loosing everything, all I care is the wheels of industry starting to move again. I want to employ, give work, but the whole place has come to a shattering halt.

Raskolnikov

MrsJohnMurphy wrote: »

Yeah I know that lots of people want to sell, but somebody obviously wants them, 10+ million approx, 3 million euros worth of shares were bought today.

Key question is are these rumours of high profile people and certain institutions buying shares true or rubbish?

mjm

You don't understand.

The huge volume of these shares being sold off, at such a rapidly declining price, only serves to indicate that people are desperate to sell at whatever price they can get. It's like someone has pissed in the pool, and everyone is desperate to get out.

As for certain institutions buying? There is nothing to suggest this. High-profile people? The only person has been Dermot Desmond. If you've read anything about him, you'll know he likes to have a bet. He's a billionaire, betting €2-3 million that is a tiny fraction of his net-worth.

Raskolnikov

Bearcat wrote: »

I have 90,000 shares in aib yes 90k and they are as valuable now as the 90k sheaths of bog roll in my jacks. I have basically written them off, and my kids can benefit from them if they ever return which I doubt.

I am very very confused though. The govt (appears) to stand idly by but there is masssive trading going on.

Can some one just say what they think is going on and as a guy in the financial game said to me a whole generation is wiped out over this...unreal stuff.

It doesnt bother me loosing everything, all I care is the wheels of industry starting to move again. I want to employ, give work, but the whole place has come to a shattering halt.

If there is nationalisation, you lose everything.

I'm sure AIB will eventually recover when the government cover their losses. The problem is, that when the government end up re-floating the bank, you'll no longer be a shareholder. It will effectively be the government privatising something they own (e.g. eircom).

pocketdooz

It is not the government's job to come and rescue private enterprises in a capitalist republic like we live in. People bought risk (equity). They did it incorrectly, should accept it and learn from their mistakes. The people who will truly suffer in the next two years are those who keep their heads stuck in the sand.

After this settles down/bottoms out (insert your own cliche here), we will enter a period of rapid inflation as governments have no choice but to print money. Now is the time to accumulate REAL assets as they are cheap as you will get them and will increase in value as inflation rockets.

But, forget about the banks. This crap has been going on for a year now on this forum about BOI, Anglo and AIB, they are nothing but a gamble at this stage. Simple - flipping a coin at this stage. There is no investment there, no logic, just a bet.

Compak

"JP Morgan Backs 'Remarkably Strong' Ireland to Pay its Debts"

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/jp-morgan-backs-remarkably-s...

Here are the high points:

1. Ireland's financial position remains "remarkably strong" despite
the banking crisis and economic downturn.

2. There are other European countries that have significantly worse
public sector debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratios

3. Ireland can afford to bail out all the banks -- notwithstanding
the current turmoil in the debt markets.

4. Political support of financial bailouts will most likely be
focused on institutions with direct systemic relevance.

5. Ireland still "has significant capacity to service a large
increase in its quantity of outstanding debt".

6. The Government's €10bn in bond sales that has been raised at much
cheaper levels than the CDS spreads imply.

Bottom line... "While further support for the banks is likely to
require external funding, we think this is likely to be costly, rather
than impossible."

DJDC

What this thread really shows is the stupidity of the Irish public when it comes to the markets. Myself and others have been telling people not to touch this toxic waste for months.The lower the Irish banks go, the more of a bargain they become to these gamblers. The thought "Maybe we should ask why the stock is so low?" never even enters their little minds.

A lot of people have lost thousands in the last few weeks trying to gamble on a share price bounce in AIB and BOI. Hopefully, as they see their hard earned savings disappear into thin air, they will learn important life lessons. Although as recent posts show, they keep coming like lambs to the slaughter.