Model Re-analysis!

chalkie

I'm not a Mod but before I go any further, this thread is intended to:
- Review current models with reasoned comment on what is being projected up to T+144
- Pull together the conclusions from the more knowledgable poster analysis from other forums (when available)
- Note the sources/links to more detailed information where it's of additional benefit
- be sociable!!!


HEADLINE:Cold and unsettled but less cold than recently.

One of the most interesting features in the coming few days is the rock solid agreement across the GFS, UKMO and ECM of a "modest" low pressure system sitting slap, bang over Ireland on Sunday.

At 970mb it's not the deepest but it should/could bring interesting weather in the shape of very heavy and slow moving showers for a time. Winds don't look particularly bad, bar in any hefty downpours, and the worst of then will be well off the south coast. Now the Irish Met doesn't, as yet, make any mention of specific conditions on Sunday so until they do the above can only be conjecture based on the limited information provided by the models.

Sunday just looks miserable for all the footballing parents! Here's hoping the pitches are water-logged and the call is to cancel before then... Yes, I'm a selfish parent.

These are the three model links for Sunday's chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Keep tabs with the Irish Met forecast for detail (and accuracy!). They're the professionals so when viewing the models, and if you make your own judgement, best to compare against the quite accurate 48 to 72hr forecasts of the Irish Met.

Beyond Sunday and it's still looking unsettled. T+144 is Tuesday. UKMO has that Icelandic Low feeding milder W to Sw winds across the country.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

ECM isn't that different while GFS has an even milder outlook with more southerly fetch to the winds. The Low is positioned further west although GFS does highlight the possibility of secondary Lows developing with a weak feature evident to west of Ireland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

That's it for an introduction of the models. If you want to read analysis from other posters across the Net then try the following weather fora...and then come back here!

For well-reasoned, civil and 'non-banter' discussion on the models go to I would recommend:
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=28038&posts=230
Some of the posters provide excellent synoptic analysis which is very informative and educational. One of the most informative posters is PJB.

For more 'passionate' discussion with analysis by experienced non-professionals then it's:

The Weather Outlook
Netweather

I tend to watch for posts from Retron (Darren Prescott as he is on uk.sci.weather); Steve Murr, NickL.

AND SO BEYOND??......
What happens beyond T+144 is...PURE GUESSWORK! The "stratospheric warming" event (SSW), much publicised on other fora such as TWO and Netweather, COULD influence the patterns down the line but if the experts in the field are to be believed we need to wait until early Feb to see this manifest. I, like many others, await to see if there will be a marked influence and what that might be.

The ensembles, those crazy lines drawn by the GFS, show no definite signal for change, be it cold/mild/dry/wet, one way or the other.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Best to stick to the T120 - T144 range for forecasting. I'll use charts beyond for interest but only when there's some element of consistency in 4+ runs of the long range models.

Open to the floor...!!

Joe

Supercell

Thanks Chalky, top notch stuff.

darkman2

In the reliable time frame the synoptic forcast is not encouraging however the timeline for Stratospheric Warming events is around 17 to 25 days so don't expect too much just yet. However it should be noted that the current warming is approaching record levels as forcast which will have an effect later on. Now whether it is favourable to us or not is another question. It is not nessacarily the case that it will be but it is does improve our chances. Any Northern Latitude blocking is good for cold.