The "What do you think it's worth?" thread

Eglinton

I've seen many many posts enquiring about the 'realistic' price in an area or "where do you see the market 'bottoming out' for 3 bed semis in Blanchardstown" etc. etc.

I thought it might be an idea to post links to more interesting properties or properties where the price seems incredible and then debate the asking price of said property. Perhaps we could stipulate that your responses to each property must include some sort of rationale?

If you think this is worthwhile exercise let me get the ball rolling with this Penthouse Apartment in Rathmines.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=398774&search=1

Asking: €850K
My initial bid: €450K
Rationale: Whilst it is a penthouse - traditionally expensive - it's on the side of a very busy road. 450K is twice what a medium income person could obtain mortgage wise so it's still in an exclusive price range. It's not very family friendly, thus excluding that bracket. There are better locations for those who can afford €850K. This is on the market since 12th August 2008 (according to Property-Bee). All in all, I think somewhere like this will have to drop dramatically from the stated asking price, to sell (nice and all as it is).

What do ye think?



(OK, so there are loads of holes in my rationale but it's a start )


EDIT: 10 responses per property; then discuss the next property posted in chronological order.

johnnyskeleton

As a matter of housekeeping, do you want every poster to comment on the property(ies) you post, or do you want to run it like those quiz threads i.e. you post a property, I say what I think it's worth and then I post a property? May as well get this sorted now, otherwise this thread could be very hard to follow. I think it's best that after a few responses in respect of this property, that you then select another property.

Eglinton wrote: »

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=398774&search=1

Asking: €850K
My initial bid: €450K
Rationale: Whilst it is a penthouse - traditionally expensive - it's on the side of a very busy road. 450K is twice what a medium income person could obtain mortgage wise so it's still in an exclusive price range. It's not very family friendly, thus excluding that bracket. There are better locations for those who can afford €850K. This is on the market since 12th August 2008 (according to Property-Bee). All in all, I think somewhere like this will have to drop dramatically from the stated asking price, to sell (nice and all as it is).

What sort of a person would live there? Very rich single person or fairly rich childless couple.

What sort of income would they be on? Maybe household income 100k.

Are there a lot of alternative properties for this purchasor to choose from? yes

Is it somewhere that they could live long term? Possibly

What sort of mortgage would they take out? 20% deposit, 20 year mortgage that is 3.5 times their salary. Max Mortgage €350 (80%).

The likely candidate for such a property could pay up to €437k for it. I imagine they wouldn't as for that money you could buy a 3 bed house. There aren't that many people earning 100k in stable jobs at the moment, and less who are willing to buy. Therefore, I'd say in the €300-350k region.

For an investor, I would expect rent to fall to about €1,200 fairly shortly, so for €300k it's a gross yield of 4.4%. Not great in a falling market, but the Irish need to own investment properties would mean there should be a few investors at that price.

So €350k may well get a purchasor, even in today's climate.

dny123456

thats not rathmines really... its harolds cross road meets the canal. i remember watching them building these on my cycle to work. wouldnt say its worth 850k, maybe 200k? 400K 600K... who knows.

dny123456

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

For an investor, I would expect rent to fall to about €1,200 fairly shortly, so for €300k it's a gross yield of 4.4%.

Its a three bed to be fair, 1200 might get you a one bed. Three people paying 500 each in a share would be fairly gettable I'd say.

Eglinton

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

As a matter of housekeeping, do you want every poster to comment on the property(ies) you post, or do you want to run it like those quiz threads i.e. you post a property, I say what I think it's worth and then I post a property? May as well get this sorted now, otherwise this thread could be very hard to follow. I think it's best that after a few responses in respect of this property, that you then select another property.

Good point - Maybe 10 reply cut off to each property, then move on to the next one posted by whomever within those 10 replies and so on?

ionapaul

dny123456 wrote: »

thats not rathmines really... its harolds cross road meets the canal. i remember watching them building these on my cycle to work. wouldnt say its worth 850k, maybe 200k? 400K 600K... who knows.

You are right - that apartment is in Harold's Cross and not Rathmines. Nice try by the estate agents though!

I think €450k is the price two years from now. 0% chance you will get it for €450k at the moment. I don't believe it is worth whatever they would take from you today (€700k or €675k maybe)

Fozzie Bear

I posted before about this one. My missus parents live in a four house cul de sac about 5 minutes from Eyre Square in Galway. Beautiful quiet place down a tree lined drive completely hidden from the road and you just wouldn't know its there unless you drove down the small driveway to it. Beautiful home in a nice area with unobstructed views of the corrib river. Just open fields behind the house.

Anyway their neighbour put his house on the market last June with a AMV of E460,000. It's a 4 bed house, needs a lick of paint but nothing major. The house finally sold yesterday for E335,000!!! (It's on Daft but I don't want to put up a link out of respect for the vendor.)

Thats a full 125,000 (27%) less then the asking price. 4 people had looked at the house since last June and after the initial offers and bids he realised he was not going to get anywhere near the 460,000 the estate agents told him he would.

The EA let slip too that they had not sold a single house in Galway city in the June to November period and this is a major EA in Galway.

It's a buyers market lads and lassies. Go out and make a killing for yourselves.

spockety

Fozzie Bear wrote: »

The EA let slip too that they had not sold a single house in Galway city in the June to November period and this is a major EA in Galway.

It's a buyers market lads and lassies. Go out and make a killing for yourselves.

It's only a buyers market if there actually is a market. Right now, there is little or no market. When denial abates and realism kicks in for vendors, hopefully we will see a market again. Asking prices are ludicrous, and most EA's are still knocking back offers even only 15% below asking. Something's gotta give soon, and I suspect it won't be buyers (they can't give).

JuliusCaesar

Interesting that they don't give the overall size in m2/sq ft. The corridors look a bit mingy for supposedly 3-4 people living there.

Eglinton

A very interesting house in Carrick on Shannon, Co. Leitrim. Extremely large, eco friendly.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=395270&search=1

Carrick has a tax designated status for investors; hence there has been phenomenal development there for the last decade.

Asking: €495K
My bid: 280K
Rationale: Average salary in Leitrim is lower than Dublin, therefore houses must drop within reach for mortgage purposes. This is a very attractive property so therefore I have placed it at the higher end of the mortage scale for a young middle class family living in the area.

The population of Carrick according to the CSO in 2006 is 3,193 and average household occupancy is 2.7 persons. This would indicate there are approx. 1200 houses in Carrick on Shannon. Presently there are 180 properties advertised on daft.ie in the town or about 15% of total. If we factor in the empty unsold developments that are advertised in a single advert on daft.ie there could be anywhere between 15-20% of all houses for sale in Carrick. This is incredible, therefore a buyer has total control, even for the likes of this quality property. This house has been on the market since August and has dropped 35K in that period. Given that houses in a prestigious development in Rathcoole in Dublin have just been slashed 35% to try and sell, houses in Leitrim certainly cannot command prices of a half million.

gurramok

Here's one of an area i know of in Clonsilla, Dublin. Your standard 3 bed semi affair in D15.

http://www.daft.ie/1372314

Asking: €390K
My bid: €220K
Rationale: It ain't Castleknock
Seriously, these type of houses were asking close to 500k at the peak solely not because of their build quality but because of their location with a train station next door despite the mayhem of traffic and Calcutta style trains.
Its a 'semi working class' area hence my reference as to why its not Castleknock where hob-nobs tend to live with asking prices for a similar house now at about 450k:)
The competition to these would be down the road at Carpenterstown aka Castleknock on the next step of the ladder and i'd maybe give €250k to live there.
A step back on the ladder would be the semi-d land out in Clonee where my bids would be of the order of €150k for an identical house.

So a bid of €220k would be sufficient to what i think this house is worth to me.

dny123456

i dunno, 390k doesnt seem too bad to be honest. Compared to the 'penthouse apt' at the start. Pics look good. Big house

gurramok

You must remember, everywhere is overpriced at the mo, what i posted was what it was worth to me. I could pay 390k but will not as i think its not worth that to me.

Same would be for the penthouse, i'd adjust to what its worth to me and not if its present asking price is 'good value among todays prices' if you know what i mean

johnnyskeleton

Eglinton wrote: »

A very interesting house in Carrick on Shannon, Co. Leitrim. Extremely large, eco friendly.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=395270&search=1

Carrick has a tax designated status for investors; hence there has been phenomenal development there for the last decade.

Asking: €495K
My bid: 280K
Rationale: Average salary in Leitrim is lower than Dublin, therefore houses must drop within reach for mortgage purposes. This is a very attractive property so therefore I have placed it at the higher end of the mortage scale for a young middle class family living in the area.

The population of Carrick according to the CSO in 2006 is 3,193 and average household occupancy is 2.7 persons. This would indicate there are approx. 1200 houses in Carrick on Shannon. Presently there are 180 properties advertised on daft.ie in the town or about 15% of total. If we factor in the empty unsold developments that are advertised in a single advert on daft.ie there could be anywhere between 15-20% of all houses for sale in Carrick. This is incredible, therefore a buyer has total control, even for the likes of this quality property. This house has been on the market since August and has dropped 35K in that period. Given that houses in a prestigious development in Rathcoole in Dublin have just been slashed 35% to try and sell, houses in Leitrim certainly cannot command prices of a half million.

Not only are wages lower, but house expectations are much higher. The very concept of 1 bed apartments in Carrick is laughable - no-one would want to live in them. As for these, they look like nice houses to retire to or if you work in the area. I suspect that despite the map, they are not actually in Carrick but a bit outside it. If MBNA remain in Carrick - €150-200k. If they relocate abroad - €100k give or take. Way too much property for sale in Carrick.

gurramok wrote: »

Here's one of an area i know of in Clonsilla, Dublin. Your standard 3 bed semi affair in D15.

http://www.daft.ie/1372314

Asking: €390K
My bid: €220K
Rationale: It ain't Castleknock
Seriously, these type of houses were asking close to 500k at the peak solely not because of their build quality but because of their location with a train station next door despite the mayhem of traffic and Calcutta style trains.
Its a 'semi working class' area hence my reference as to why its not Castleknock where hob-nobs tend to live with asking prices for a similar house now at about 450k:)
The competition to these would be down the road at Carpenterstown aka Castleknock on the next step of the ladder and i'd maybe give €250k to live there.
A step back on the ladder would be the semi-d land out in Clonee where my bids would be of the order of €150k for an identical house.

So a bid of €220k would be sufficient to what i think this house is worth to me.

It is a newly built 3 bed outside the M50 with a nearby train link, so the €150-250k would be the general area. I'm not very familiar with Clonsilla but there are a number of 3 beds in Tallaght (well, jobstown) for under 200k which, although not as nice looking, are of a similar calibre. So I'd put this property in the €180-220k depending on how nice the estate is.

Eglinton

Eglinton wrote: »

A very interesting house in Carrick on Shannon, Co. Leitrim. Extremely large, eco friendly.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=395270&search=1

Carrick has a tax designated status for investors; hence there has been phenomenal development there for the last decade.

Asking: €495K
My bid: 280K
Rationale: Average salary in Leitrim is lower than Dublin, therefore houses must drop within reach for mortgage purposes. This is a very attractive property so therefore I have placed it at the higher end of the mortage scale for a young middle class family living in the area.

The population of Carrick according to the CSO in 2006 is 3,193 and average household occupancy is 2.7 persons. This would indicate there are approx. 1200 houses in Carrick on Shannon. Presently there are 180 properties advertised on daft.ie in the town or about 15% of total. If we factor in the empty unsold developments that are advertised in a single advert on daft.ie there could be anywhere between 15-20% of all houses for sale in Carrick. This is incredible, therefore a buyer has total control, even for the likes of this quality property. This house has been on the market since August and has dropped 35K in that period. Given that houses in a prestigious development in Rathcoole in Dublin have just been slashed 35% to try and sell, houses in Leitrim certainly cannot command prices of a half million.

I was driving through Carrick at the weekend and I thought I'd take a look at this one. What I thought was only one house for sale is in fact a development of about 15-20, all fully finished and seem to have been for some time. There is not one single house sold and the entrance to the development is blocked off with a JCB. There is also barely room to swing a cat between any of the houses and not much garden either. Because of this I am now revising what I think it's worth to 160K. There is no way any of these will sell for a considerable time. There are beside the river but they have no boat moorings.


I then took a gander around the rest of Carrick on Shannon. As I said before, there are 180 properties listed on daft.ie - In fact many of these are like the above; One house advertised but a whole development laying idle. I would say there are 500 empty premises in Carrick, a town with 1200 occupied premises. Houses, even big ones, could plummet well below 100K here.

herya

Eglinton wrote: »

There is also barely room to swing a car

:-D Looks like there is some space after all!

That's a very interesting thread you have here guys, I can't contribute much myself but I do read with interest.

Eglinton

gurramok wrote: »

Here's one of an area i know of in Clonsilla, Dublin. Your standard 3 bed semi affair in D15.

http://www.daft.ie/1372314

Asking: €390K
My bid: €220K
Rationale: It ain't Castleknock
Seriously, these type of houses were asking close to 500k at the peak solely not because of their build quality but because of their location with a train station next door despite the mayhem of traffic and Calcutta style trains.
Its a 'semi working class' area hence my reference as to why its not Castleknock where hob-nobs tend to live with asking prices for a similar house now at about 450k:)
The competition to these would be down the road at Carpenterstown aka Castleknock on the next step of the ladder and i'd maybe give €250k to live there.
A step back on the ladder would be the semi-d land out in Clonee where my bids would be of the order of €150k for an identical house.

So a bid of €220k would be sufficient to what i think this house is worth to me.

Yes, I'd agree with your bid. I think you could get it for 220 this time next year but it might possibly be a little higher, perhaps between 220 and 260. I really wouldn't think it's worth more than that though given the area/working class couple mortgage entitlement.

johnnyskeleton

herya wrote: »

I can't contribute much myself but I do read with interest.

Course ya can, just say what you think a place is worth, and the reasons why. It's interesting to get different people's perspectives.

Eglinton

Here's a house that's probably overvalued by the best part of a million. It's just on the market so the Estate Agent is really pullin the proverbial p1ss.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=424940&search=1


Asking: 1.55 million
My bid: 600K
Rationale: It's a nice big house, large garden in a leafy suburb. However, there's nothing it has that every normal family home shouldn't have as standard anyway. However, because this is a highly sought after location there probably is a market for it in the higer middle class bracket. We're talkin' senior management type couples that may be able to trade up. You wouldn't have to go to far outside of Dublin however to find somewhere bigger for half the value though.



Anyone see anything interesting in other counties/cities? Don't want to focus on Dublin too much

spockety

Eglinton wrote: »

Here's a house that's probably overvalued by the best part of a million. It's just on the market so the Estate Agent is really pullin the proverbial p1ss.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=424940&search=1


Asking: 1.55 million
My bid: 600K
Rationale: It's a nice big house, large garden in a leafy suburb. However, there's nothing it has that every normal family home shouldn't have as standard anyway. However, because this is a highly sought after location there probably is a market for it in the higer middle class bracket. We're talkin' senior management type couples that may be able to trade up. You wouldn't have to go to far outside of Dublin however to find somewhere bigger for half the value though.



Anyone see anything interesting in other counties/cities? Don't want to focus on Dublin too much

If that particular estate agent is anything to go by, there will be 30% knocked off the price within 8 weeks.

Actually, some shenanigans going on. It's 1.25m on myhome.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/crannagh-road-rathfarnham-dublin-co&-city/EVSCR385899