Possibility of a General Election in 2009?

DublinWriter

I heard lots of opinions on the radio yesterday discussing the possibility of a General Election in 2009. Do they know something that we don't?

Given that we have two by-elections coming up, Lisbon à do and the Locals, under what possible scenario could a General Election happen, i.e. what could happen that would cause the current FF/Green Government to collapse by the end of the year?

Breezer

A landslide of Green councillors resigning (we've had 2 in 24 hours), mass dissatisfaction among the grassroots, and a resolution passed at an EGM demanding a walkout? I have no idea if this is even possible, any Greens able to shed some light on this?

Whether or not this can happen, I don't know if it will, but to me it seems the most likely scenario that would force a general election.

Grudaire

Breezer wrote: »

A landslide of Green councillors resigning (we've had 2 in 24 hours), mass dissatisfaction among the grassroots, and a resolution passed at an EGM demanding a walkout? I have no idea if this is even possible, any Greens able to shed some light on this?

Whether or not this can happen, I don't know if it will, but to me it seems the most likely scenario that would force a general election.

Still there'd be a coalition of over half the Dáil...

DublinWriter

Even if Gormley and the other Green TD (sorry, forgot his name!) currently in coalition, in a worst case scenario, get ejected from the Green party, I don't think they'll be giving up their seats in a hurry.

FF also have a 'buffer' of two independent TD's propping the current Government up.

I just think all this media-talk of a General Election in 2009 is so much wishful-thinking.

Breezer

Cliste wrote: »

Still there'd be a coalition of over half the Dáil...

Fianna Fáil won 77 seats in 2007.
Plus Beverly and minus Seamus Brennan still leaves them with 77.
Two independents supporting them gives them 79.
The two former PDs gives them 81.

Harney is also likely to retire after the local elections. I'm not entirely sure what the status of Joe Behan is, whether he's still supporting the Government on everything except the medical cards or not. I've also left the Ceann Comhairle and Leas Ceann Comhairle out of the equation, but they're from opposite sides anyway.

Either way 81 is less than half the Dáil, which means FF needs the Greens to stay in power.

I may well have forgotten something here, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

DublinWriter wrote:

Even if Gormley and the other Green TD (sorry, forgot his name!) currently in coalition, in a worst case scenario, get ejected from the Green party, I don't think they'll be giving up their seats in a hurry.

Eamon Ryan, and there's four others as well, but they're not in Cabinet. I don't envisage them being ejected from the party, rather the grassroots members whose support they needed to go into government withdrawing that support. Are there any Green party members here who can confirm if this could happen under the party constitution?

Het-Field

DublinWriter wrote: »

Even if Gormley and the other Green TD (sorry, forgot his name!) currently in coalition, in a worst case scenario, get ejected from the Green party, I don't think they'll be giving up their seats in a hurry.

FF also have a 'buffer' of two independent TD's propping the current Government up.

I just think all this media-talk of a General Election in 2009 is so much wishful-thinking.

If the talk is fulfilled, and one of Harney or Dempsey take the Commissioner's post, the they will be down another one. At that point it would be so precarious that it would almost be better to collapse the government....providing the Greens walk the plank.

All it would take is one enterprising backbencher to pull the Government. Remember, there are still one or two McDaids and Joe Behans knocking around

jmayo

Het-Field wrote: »

If the talk is fulfilled, and one of Harney or Dempsey take the Commissioner's post, the they will be down another one. At that point it would be so precarious that it would almost be better to collapse the government....providing the Greens walk the plank.

All it would take is one enterprising backbencher to pull the Government. Remember, there are still one or two McDaids and Joe Behans knocking around

Forget about ff backbenchers.
The odd one may vote against government or abstain on some issues, but watch they do it when they know their vote will not tip tha balance anyway.
As regards Behan he will be back with his tail between his legs, he still voted with the government even after the medical cards, so much for caring for the kids and education cuts :rolleyes:

If as deserved, but you never know with Irish voters, ff get their ars** spanked in the local and european elections, the most likely outcome is Biffo Clowen (I really think that name is apt) will find an axe, not a knife, between the shoulder blades.
Fianna Failures will want to do a bit of blood shedding and will want to get revenge on the man that they feel has failed the grassroots and the soldiers of destiny. Of course Lenihan's and Coughlan's rise up the ladder will have possibly come to an end.

Watch out for Martin, Hanafin or Ahern who even though he in cushy Justice is still managing to get himself into controversy, what with letters for terrorist leaders, legal firearms bans.

I doubt the greens will pull the plug.
The Green TDs will know that most of them won't get reelected, because they won't get transfers form FG/Lab etc and they have lost support of some of their staunch electoral base itself.

Lowry and "the capped one from Kerry who is grooming no.1 son for the job" will be kept sweet and thus won't walk, so I doubt you will see an election in 2009.
Sad isn't it :mad:

jank

Probably not but we will have to wait for the local and euro elections. And of course there will be a budget too to pass in the near future. Any one of them could colpase the government.

Any Enda will be the next leader of the country no matter what!

Het-Field

jmayo wrote: »

Forget about ff backbenchers.
The odd one may vote against government or abstain on some issues, but watch they do it when they know their vote will not tip tha balance anyway.
As regards Behan he will be back with his tail between his legs, he still voted with the government even after the medical cards, so much for caring for the kids and education cuts :rolleyes:

If as deserved, but you never know with Irish voters, ff get their ars** spanked in the local and european elections, the most likely outcome is Biffo Clowen (I really think that name is apt) will find an axe, not a knife, between the shoulder blades.
Fianna Failures will want to do a bit of blood shedding and will want to get revenge on the man that they feel has failed the grassroots and the soldiers of destiny. Of course Lenihan's and Coughlan's rise up the ladder will have possibly come to an end.

Watch out for Martin, Hanafin or Ahern who even though he in cushy Justice is still managing to get himself into controversy, what with letters for terrorist leaders, legal firearms bans.

I doubt the greens will pull the plug.
The Green TDs will know that most of them won't get reelected, because they won't get transfers form FG/Lab etc and they have lost support of some of their staunch electoral base itself.

Lowry and "the capped one from Kerry who is grooming no.1 son for the job" will be kept sweet and thus won't walk, so I doubt you will see an election in 2009.
Sad isn't it :mad:

The reality is Martin is the only member of that "untainted" list who will have any chance of success as a leader. Hanafin is not universally liked by Fianna Fail (Moreso than any natural internal dislike), while Dermot Ahern is a nobody. We have gone from Michael McDowell, whp was interested in introducing real reform, to Ahern who is just their to take potshots at the opposition, and publish white papers.

The reality is, the current crop of FFers are a spent force. Many were in their prime in 1997-2004, but since then too many questionable decisions have been made

Leon08

Het-Field wrote: »

Michael McDowell, whp was interested in introducing real reform...

Finally, someone else who recognises that McDowell, despite his faults, did at least try and do something when he was in Justice.

thebigcheese22

Breezer wrote: »

Harney is also likely to retire after the local elections.

Really? Wahey!!!

Het-Field

Leon08 wrote: »

Finally, someone else who recognises that McDowell, despite his faults, did at least try and do something when he was in Justice.

Nobody beat the drum on McDowell's behalf more than myself. There were things I disagreed with, but he gave Irish people a chance to have their say on Immigration, attempted to tackle Ireland's cancerous relationship with alcohol (liberalising rather than restricting), and implemented serveral reforms vis-a-vis evidential admissability etc.

He took unpopular decisions, but paid the price because of his personality. People in Dublin South East decided to "wipe the smug smile off his face", and oust him for a parlimentary virgin in Lucinda Creighton, and an intellectual lightweight (read his articles about Gaza) in Chris Andrews. Personailty based decisions are the ones that we are paying the price for. People like McDowell, for better or for worse, are statespeople. They have a vision for the nation beyond the Parish pump.

I still lament his departure from the Oireachtas and the Progressive Democrats demise from the political system. We need a 1987-2004 model of the PDs more than ever.

jmayo

Het-Field wrote: »

Nobody beat the drum on McDowell's behalf more than myself. There were things I disagreed with, but he gave Irish people a chance to have their say on Immigration, attempted to tackle Ireland's cancerous relationship with alcohol (liberalising rather than restricting), and implemented serveral reforms vis-a-vis evidential admissability etc.

He took unpopular decisions, but paid the price because of his personality. People in Dublin South East decided to "wipe the smug smile off his face", and oust him for a parlimentary virgin in Lucinda Creighton, and an intellectual lightweight (read his articles about Gaza) in Chris Andrews. Personailty based decisions are the ones that we are paying the price for. People like McDowell, for better or for worse, are statespeople. They have a vision for the nation beyond the Parish pump.

I still lament his departure from the Oireachtas and the Progressive Democrats demise from the political system. We need a 1987-2004 model of the PDs more than ever.

I seem to remember he was Attorney General when the McBreaty case was coming to light and he refused to do anything about it :rolleyes:
To use a description that was labelled AFAIK on Conor Cruise O'Brien...
McDowell was about as useful as a lighthouse in the bog of Allen, brilliant but not much good

His attack on Connolly might be justified to some degree, but I think he abused his office in doing so and definetly not statesman like :rolleyes:

His antics about morals and ethics rang a little hollow when he refused to pull the rug form under bertie baffler, even though his explanations really were a joke.
The only good thing he did was expose Adams pre election 2007.

Would his vision and the PDs vision for the people be allowing developers/business people tax cuts through the development of colocation ?

Darragh29

Breezer wrote: »

A landslide of Green councillors resigning (we've had 2 in 24 hours), mass dissatisfaction among the grassroots, and a resolution passed at an EGM demanding a walkout? I have no idea if this is even possible, any Greens able to shed some light on this?

Whether or not this can happen, I don't know if it will, but to me it seems the most likely scenario that would force a general election.

I think we will see one sooner than we think. John Gormley clearly doesn't have his finger on the pulse here at all.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/gormley-threat-to-pull-out-as-another-party-councillor-quits-1611666.html

In the above article, he is quoted as having said:

"We do have a bottom line and it is this: that we are in Government as long as our programme is being implemented,"

I think the serious problems that have emerged since the Green's went into power, make the Green Party programme for government become almost completely irrelevant. I'm all for Green this and Green that and reducing our carbon emissions and dependancy on oil, but he doesn't seem to understand the fact that this country is now sliding into a very sh*tty hole that it is going to take years to get out of, with so many people losing jobs on a daily basis now, Gormley needs to get his head around the fact that people are not too concerned at the moment with giving the conservation protesters down at Tara a fair hearing or listening to the Shell to Sea lobby, or having a national debate about us all going around the city on bicycles.

I gave the Greens a 1st preference vote on the last occasion in the hope that it would change something, but I certainly didn't vote for this.

This government simply cannot govern in times like this, they have been too exposed in recent years to the selfish greed and corruption that has been the downfall of the country now. You wouldn't ask an alocholic to go in and run a failing bar, and the same logic I think is true here, you can not expect a government that has walked us into this disaster, to take us back out of it, in the same way that you wouldn't dream of giving a joyrider the job of driving an ambulance.

The only way the Green's will ever get a vote from me again is if they pull the plug on this absolute spectacle that is the current management of the country.

I think he knows it too, and I hope the party grassroots will do the job for him if he keeps talking absolute rubbish about staying in government for as long as the party program of more litter bins for Dublin and so on.

Darsad

i have head from a local rep that there is a plan to defer the local elections for two yrs as the threat of the gov falling looms ever larger .

freyners

its got to be just wistful thinking because unless Cowen is dumber than most of the country percieve him to be he wont
i case it does happen who would gain and who would lose??
My opinion would be
FF- Defo down by at least 7 or eight seats
Greens- Down 1
FG - up 2-3
Labour -up 5
SF- even or +1
Independants - down 2

DublinWriter

freyners wrote: »

My opinion would be
FF- Defo down by at least 7 or eight seats
Greens- Down 1
FG - up 2-3
Labour -up 5
SF- even or +1
Independants - down 2

You're an optimist so. I'd say FF down at least 30 seats, Greens wiped out and FG/Lab/SF/Ind moping up the bloodbath to their advantage.

BlaasForRafa

The longer FF leaves an election the worse for them it will be because this recession isn't going away for a couple of years minimum and unemployment may well go up to half a million.

irish_bob

DublinWriter wrote: »

You're an optimist so. I'd say FF down at least 30 seats, Greens wiped out and FG/Lab/SF/Ind moping up the bloodbath to their advantage.

FF wont loose 30 seats , even ireland were to resemble zimbabwe , a good 20% of the population would still vote for them , its not about issues you know

i suspect they could at worst loose over 15 though

BlaasForRafa

irish_bob wrote: »

FF wont loose 30 seats , even ireland were to resemble zimbabwe , a good 20% of the population would still vote for them , its not about issues you know

i suspect they could at worst loose over 15 though

Even a 15 seat loss would be the worst FF performance ever. at that rate they'd need to ally with Labour if they were to stay in power.

turgon

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Even a 15 seat loss would be the worst FF performance ever. at that rate they'd need to ally with Labour if they were to stay in power.

And labour wouldnt need them, theyd have Fine Gael which would be a much more attractive option at that stage.

I wonder, as a previous poster said, whether the longer it is left the worse they do. You know the electorate can be pretty short sighted, and FF might just wait for a 6/9 month scandal free period and shoot out a election. Now whether they can get a 6 month scandal free period remains to be seen.

And the greens?? I wouldnt be surprised if they lost all their seats, considering they are generally elected in on transfers.

Mr.Micro

I don't believe that there will be a general election in 2009. FF grandees and senior party members are watching Biffo and batty Lenihan with a beady eye having a few sleepless nights lately. If anything there may be a change of management, new leader and new finance minister in the next 12 months unless Batman and Robin aka Biffo and Lenihan get some results or at least get a grip.

The thing is, as things stand, FF will probably lose the next election, and the Government should put the good of the country before the party(ies) as it (FF/ Greens) has nothing to lose and if anything it might pay off in later years for them. Will that happen? I doubt it.

Godge

FF would certainly lose an election in 2009, probably in 2010. They would prefer to take their chances and wait. In an election tomorrow, they would lose 30 seats but there won't be an election tomorrow.

The Greens will get a carbon tax in the next budget to keep them in. Watch the cutbacks too to see how corrupt this government is. Will A&E stay in Nenagh? Will Tipperary Institute, the most useless third level institution survive? ask Michael Lowry.

BlaasForRafa

Theres a tipperary institute? holy crap.....

During the next election the usual promises will be made in various constituencies regarding universities, cancer services, school rebuildings etc that will never take place and people will probably fall for it again.

If FG and Labour did win an election this year they'd have to fix the mess that FF along with first the PD's and then the Greens got the countries finances in. Then FG and Labour would become wildly unpopular and FF sweeps in on the brink of the next boom in 5 years time.

freyners

DublinWriter wrote: »

You're an optimist so. I'd say FF down at least 30 seats, Greens wiped out and FG/Lab/SF/Ind moping up the bloodbath to their advantage.

I hope your right but im a realist and ff will still get loads of votes cause of this family traditons of voting that is in Ireland

irish_bob

freyners wrote: »

I hope your right but im a realist and ff will still get loads of votes cause of this family traditons of voting that is in Ireland

outside dublin , the vast vast majority of people and i include the young , vote based on who thier people vote for , end of , fianna fail bar a miracle will loose the next election but i would be astonished if they were not still the largest party , albeit with only a handfull of seats more than fine gael

DublinWriter

freyners wrote: »

I hope your right but im a realist and ff will still get loads of votes cause of this family traditons of voting that is in Ireland

You know what? I think we may have turned that particular corner.

The fiasco over withdrawing medical cards for over 70's (remember that?) really turned off a lot of the die-hard grassroots FF voters and made them think twice about their voting habits.

Younger voters facing negative equity, high prices and unemployment will also have their own particular axe to grind.

Don't forget that the public-sector remains the largest employer in the country; they'll also have scores to settle if Cowen railroads pay cuts in the public sector as forecasted.

Remember that FF didn't even get an overall majority only two years ago when things were a lot brighter economically.

Dob74

FF and FG are pretty much the same thing. Unless there is a lab/sf/green coalition nothing will change. Chances of that are slim. FF and the greens will hold out for an election for as long as possible. FF know they will be destoryed at the next election so they will hang on til 2011 or 2012.

irish_bob

DublinWriter wrote: »

You know what? I think we may have turned that particular corner.

The fiasco over withdrawing medical cards for over 70's (remember that?) really turned off a lot of the die-hard grassroots FF voters and made them think twice about their voting habits.

Younger voters facing negative equity, high prices and unemployment will also have their own particular axe to grind.

Don't forget that the public-sector remains the largest employer in the country; they'll also have scores to settle if Cowen railroads pay cuts in the public sector as forecasted.

Remember that FF didn't even get an overall majority only two years ago when things were a lot brighter economically.

you have it arseways , taking on the public sector agressivley and descisivley is the only way fianna fail can win the next election , the coping class or silent majority want the public sector brought into line with the rest of us

as for the medical card thing , the demographic who consistently vote fianna fail ( the elderly ) are looked after extremly well in this country and will continue to vote for them , while it was suicide politically to try and remove the medical card for the over 70,s , the only thing wrong with the it was they rowed back

Darragh29

I reckon we are going to see some serious sh*t hit the fan this coming week in Ireland. The unions and the government are set for a showdown on public sector pay that I can see ending with placards being nailed to planks of wood by the middle of next week...

DublinWriter

irish_bob wrote: »

you have it arseways , taking on the public sector agressivley and descisivley is the only way fianna fail can win the next election , the coping class or silent majority want the public sector brought into line with the rest of us

Oh really...and the 369,100 people currently employed in the public sector don't vote?

irish_bob wrote: »

as for the medical card thing , the demographic who consistently vote fianna fail ( the elderly ) are looked after extremly well in this country and will continue to vote for them ,

This would be 20,000 of the same demographic that took to the Dublin streets in protest in October last year?

I restate my claim that FF will face meltdown at any election held this year.